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sancho panza

Market hardly moving as home owners stay put for almost 20 years, while not long ago they moved every 7.4 years

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http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/second-steppers-suffering-from-a-lack-of-government-support/

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The rate that home owners move has more than halved over the past 30 years, new data reveals.

The Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) has warned that high transaction costs and a lack of supply means home owners now move every 19.2 years compared with every 7.4 years in 1988.

Lending data from IMLA’s Mortgage Market Tracker for the first quarter of 2018 found that 74 out of every 100 mortgage applications completed into a property purchase in the first three months of this year, down from 77 at the end of 2017.

The figure had been rising annually in previous years, at 64 in the first quarter of 2016 and 72 in the first quarter of 2017.

In contrast, first-time buyers – which IMLA said have been supported by the Bank of Mum and Dad as well as Government schemes – saw a record number of successful applications through intermediaries.

IMLA said that 76 out of every 100 applications completed in the first quarter of 2018, up from 74 at the end of last year and up from the 48 recorded when the tracker first began in the first quarter of 2016.

Kate Davies, executive director of IMLA, said: “As well as competitively priced and widely-available deals, many first-time buyers owe their success to initiatives such as the Help to Buy scheme, Lifetime ISAs and Stamp Duty relief.

“However, this continued focus on first-time buyers has come at the expense of the rest of the market, which is becoming increasingly illiquid.

“The Government’s commitment to improving access to the housing ladder has gone some way to increasing our supply of new and affordable homes.

“However, while a significant number of aspiring home owners have benefited from these initiatives, many home movers, or ‘steppers’, continue to struggle with hurdles including high house prices relative to earnings, stricter mortgage affordability criteria and a lack of suitable homes.

“Recognition and support from both policy makers and lenders is needed for this group, to improve housing turnover and transaction volumes in the wider market.

“The Government should take this pivotal juncture as an opportunity to reassess where in the market injections of new homes are needed, working with developers, planners and lenders to ensure the whole market is well served.”'

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3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

“The Government should take this pivotal juncture as an opportunity to reassess where in the market injections of new homes are needed, working with developers, planners and lenders to ensure the whole market is well served.”'

Or the government could keep out of the 'market' and let it operate as a market.

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17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

“The Government should take this pivotal juncture as an opportunity to reassess where in the market injections of new homes are needed, working with developers, planners and lenders to ensure the whole market is well served.”'

But builders are sitting on land, if they thought there was demand for their product they would build wouldn't they? This is really a bleat for the Govt to remove/reduce stamp duty, extend help to buy to any property etc.  The situation also reflects the relative maturity of home owners now. Youngsters can't afford to buy so it's more and more the middle aged buying and they don't move from the "family" home until they downsize in retirement when the kids have bugger end off, so 20 years sounds about right. Lower house prices and youngsters will buy again.

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2 hours ago, Dipsy said:

The situation also reflects the relative maturity of home owners now. Youngsters can't afford to buy so it's more and more the middle aged buying and they don't move from the "family" home until they downsize in retirement when the kids have bugger end off, so 20 years sounds about right. Lower house prices and youngsters will buy again.

Spot on. The majority of people buying here in North Devon seem to be  35+ years old, selling up in the SE and moving West. The under 30s mostly seem to rent. I suspect the gap between average incomes and houseprices will need to close a bit before we see volumes increasing.

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22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Kate Davies, executive director of IMLA, said: “As well as competitively priced and widely-available deals, many first-time buyers owe their success to initiatives such as the Help to Buy scheme, Lifetime ISAs and Stamp Duty relief.

“However, this continued focus on first-time buyers has come at the expense of the rest of the market, which is becoming increasingly illiquid.

This bit made me laugh.Bunch of equity rich old people looking for suckers to offload to and moaning because they're having to fund the only suckers entering the market at the bottom.

1 hour ago, InLikeFlynn said:

Spot on. The majority of people buying here in North Devon seem to be  35+ years old, selling up in the SE and moving West. The under 30s mostly seem to rent. I suspect the gap between average incomes and houseprices will need to close a bit before we see volumes increasing.

It's the equity rich swapping equity with each other and FTB's getting drawn in.

Real liquidity is jsut a pipe dream.Lot of EA's will go under with few transactions.

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3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Lot of EA's will go under with few transactions.

I suspect a lot of EA's survive on rental income and monthly management fees. For them Sales commission is a sideline.

 

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2 hours ago, eek said:

I suspect a lot of EA's survive on rental income and monthly management fees. For them Sales commission is a sideline.

 

True ...for now.Lettings fee ban due in 2019.

Having said that taking LE2 there's 29 EA's and roughly 100 transactions per month at an average £200k.That's roughly £200k per month spread around 30 EA's(plus online EA's) Probably £5k each.Maybe some from outside the postcode.

If each local EA has 70 properties on their books-unlikely that many at around £600pcm that gives them £4200pcm in fee income plus some more for signing on fees.

Outgoings=office if leased £1k, rates £500, 3 staff (being generous likely more) £4k, RM fees £1k, Zoopla £750,utilities £400,expenses £500 fuel etc.All in £8k minimum

A lot of EA's will be toast.

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Anglogold market cap is less than it's revenue..........

Sibanye 50%

Utterly bombed out.

DYOR etc...

 

https://www.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-miners-components

 

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Posted (edited)

Anecdotally: I’ve been in my current place since....  ICR...  well over 20 years, my neighbours on either side even longer. Over the same period of kids growing up when I was a kid in the 60s to 80s my parents moved 4 times, each time to a significantly bigger place. 

I almost moved a couple of times in that period , but each time it ultimately wasn’t worth the candle - I’d have had to change from low/no mortgage to massive, crippling lifelong mortgage for very little extra.

In the meantime most of the houses that have sold in my average street of 4 bed 1960s semis have switched from OO to BTL.

My kids are now starting to fly the nest and I am looking to retire. So if and when we do move it isn’t going to be UpTheLadder.

Driven by deliberate government policies, the housing market has eaten itself.

Edited by Melchett

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4 minutes ago, Melchett said:

Anecdotally: I’ve been in my current place since....  ICR...  well over 20 years, my neighbours on either side even longer. Over the same period of kids growing up when I was a kid in the 60s to 80s my parents moved 4 times, each time to a significantly bigger place. 

I almost moved a couple of times in that period , but each time it ultimately wasn’t worth the candle - I’d have had to change from low/no mortgage to massive, crippling lifelong mortgage for very little extra.

In the meantime most of the houses that have sold in my average street of 4 bed 1960s semis have switched from OO to BTL.

My kids are now starting to fly the nest and I am looking to retire. So if and when we do move it isn’t going to be UpTheLadder.

Driven by deliberate government policies, the housing market has eaten itself.

You could be describing my situation, other than mine left to go to uni but then bloody returned as they couldn’t afford to live independently here in londonistan. The house is too small for four adults, but like you, thought that taking on a crippling mortgage not worth it for the very little extra it would buy. 

Similarly, family homes are being turned into btl.  Some have got their fingers burnt on this though. The house opposite was turned into a cannabis factory and the interior completely destroyed. Another rented out to a Somali family who completely and utterly wrecked it, including smashing the place up. Oh, and who forgot to pay the rent. 

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Sorry, just to add, harking back to the OP and the referenced story, that seeing as we have got to this situation as a direct (and sometimes indirect) result of government interventions to "help" homebuyers, it is logical to conclude that the only way to fix this fucking enormous mess, if fix it we can, is to STOP GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS!

FFS, isn't it the very definition of stupidity to keep doing the same thing, getting an "unwanted" result, yet to keep doing it anyway hoping for it to turn out differently this time?

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8 minutes ago, Melchett said:

Sorry, just to add, harking back to the OP and the referenced story, that seeing as we have got to this situation as a direct (and sometimes indirect) result of government interventions to "help" homebuyers, it is logical to conclude that the only way to fix this fucking enormous mess, if fix it we can, is to STOP GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS!

FFS, isn't it the very definition of stupidity to keep doing the same thing, getting an "unwanted" result, yet to keep doing it anyway hoping for it to turn out differently this time?

Doesn't your last paragraph describe our man at the BoE?...who gets paid a kings ransom and a gold plated pension for doing just that?!

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People aren't moving because they can't afford to (unless they're renting in which case they have fuck all choice). The rungs on the housing ladder are so far apart getting to the next one requires a lottery win for most people and the frictional cost of stamp duty, mortgage fees, lawyers fees and the rest makes it even more painful.  The only reason I'm not still living in the same house I bought in the UK 30 years ago is because I moved country and my employer paid all my transaction costs!

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Agreed, some of those gold stocks are looking very low. But they could bump along the bottom forever and a day. Why should the price of gold rise? Its controlled by the banker scum, only a financial reset will mean $$ moves to gold. And the bankers have that covered (QE ZIRP NIRP endless money printing).

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