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sancho panza

Housing transactions in England and Wales down almost 30% on pre-crash levels

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Housing transactions on their arse in Londinium.The Pie readership being told all is ok as long as you're not in the capital.

I wouldn't be so sure.Hot money leads the market and the hot money,is,has,always will be in London.

Only one comment from the Pie people.The thread on Corbyn has 30 odd comments.

Rome fiddling burns while.

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/housing-transactions-in-england-and-wales-down-almost-30-on-pre-crash-levels/

'Housing transactions across England and Wales are down almost 30% on pre-crash levels.

A new report, analysing Land Registry data for the year to and including August, also says that excluding London, transactions in England and Wales are up on a quarterly basis by 15.2% but down 1.3% measured annually.

The report, from London Central Portfolio, says that the wider market in England and Wales – excluding Greater London – is more robust than in the capital.

Without London, the average house price stands at £262,910, up 2.1% annually, and while transactions have fallen, they have not done so at the same rate as in London.

In prime central London, transactions are at a record low of 3,771.

The report says: “This continued slide is putting further pressure on sellers, estate agents and home builders alike. It is also likely to reduce tax revenues for the Treasury.”

Average prices in prime central London in August stood at £1,781,990, representing annual growth of 1.5%.

In Greater London, excluding prime central areas, the number of transactions has fallen 6% year on year to 84,883, the lowest level since 2011.

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This from the report.Highlights mine

Headlines from August 2018 Report

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON


PRICES STABILISE BUT TRANSACTIONS FALL
  • Average prices in August (excluding new build) in Prime Central London (PCL) now stand at £1,781,090.
  • Annual prices have seen a nominal increase of 1.5%.
  • Annual transactions fall 11.6% - now 42% down on 2014.
  • These falls have been seen across PCL, with new build transactions falling 16.3% across the year.
  • New build prices remain at a high premium of 44.6% over existing stock and now stand at £2,863,621.
GREATER LONDON (EXCLUDING PRIME CENTRAL LONDON)

MODEST PRICE GROWTH BUT TRANSACTIONS FALL
  • Average prices in August (excluding new build) in Greater London now stand at £594,123.
  • Annual prices have seen an increase of just 2.6%.
  • Annual transactions fell by 6.0%, having fallen steadily since the introduction of the 3% additional SDLT in 2016.
  • These falls have been seen across Greater London with new build transactions falling 14.9% over the year.
  • New build prices are at a record high of £644,022, representing a 17.3% premium over existing stock.
ENGLAND AND WALES (EXCLUDING GREATER LONDON)

WEAK PRICE GROWTH BUT TRANSACTIONS STABILISE
  • Average prices in August (excluding new build) in England and Wales now stand at £262,910.
  • This represents a quarterly increase of 7.0% although annual prices have only increased by 2.1%.
  • Annual transactions fall by 1.3% and have been falling since the introduction of the 3% additional SDLT in 2016.
  • New build prices reach a record high of £284,663 representing a 13.7% premium over existing stock.
For commentary, please read below

Naomi Heaton, CEO of LCP, comments:

Prices in Prime Central London (PCL) in August now stand at £1,781,090, representing annual growth of 1.5%. Over the last four years, they have increased by just 0.2%.

Transactions continue to remain stubbornly depressed at 3,771 (a record low). It is the first time that annual transactions have remained below 4,000 for five consecutive months since records were first published. This continued slide is putting further pressure on sellers, estate agents and home builders alike. It is also likely to reduce tax revenues for the Treasury.

There has been no action or initiative from the Government that gives any indication that this trend will change. The housing market appears to be the least of the Government’s worries with a potential ‘No Deal’ Brexit on the horizon.

Whilst uncertainty continues, it is bound to stifle homeowner and investor interest. However, a significant buying opportunity exists before positive sentiment returns and the market rallies.

Average prices in Greater London (excluding PCL) have hit a high this month at £594,123. This is a monthly rise of 2.4%. Nevertheless, prices have only seen an increase of 2.6% over the year.

Transactions have continued to slide since the introduction of Additional Rate Stamp Duty in April 2016, falling 6.0% year on year to 84,883, the lowest level since 2011. However, a significant increase in quarterly sales of 14.7%, suggests that this tax may finally be getting accepted by buyers.

The performance of the London property market remains disappointing. This can be attributed to weak investor sentiment and a lack of affordable properties in the capital. Many house owners are also reluctant to move if they have seen the value of their property decline.

However, we are now seeing more experienced investors returning. Contra-cyclical dollar-denominated investors are able to acquire assets at unusually large discounts. With a view to holding them for the medium to long-term, they are no longer waiting to call the bottom of the market.

Prices in England and Wales (excluding Greater London) now stand at £262,910, a monthly increase of 2.9%. However, on an annual basis there has been minimal growth of 2.1%. This low level of growth has been a running theme throughout all sectors reported.

There has been a quarterly increase in transactions of 15.2%, however annual transactions continue to fall by 1.3%. They now stand at 792,845, almost 30% down on pre-Global Financial Crisis levels.

The wider market in England and Wales is currently proving to be more robust than that of Greater London and PCL, with transactions falling but not at the same rate. London has, without doubt, been more impacted by the introduction of successive residential taxes and levels of affordability.

However, a slowing or possible fall of house price growth in England and Wales outside London, coupled with rising interest rates and general economic uncertainty may see transactions fall further and price growth stagnate.

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5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

'Housing transactions across England and Wales are down almost 30% on pre-crash levels.

 

Is that what they call 'normalising a boom'?

As in pre-crash = boom? Transactions are now less than in the last boom but what's normal? Now or the boom?

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The boom was in prices and transactions a 'buy while you still can' with loose credit type thing. 2007 was £199k and 1.6m transactions. 2014 to 2017 each saw 1.2m transactions which is close to the average from 1996 to 2003

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In the road where my parents live, (home counties) houses sell immediately (within a week max) of being put on the market and that's been the case since 1981 when they moved there.....

The latest house on the market went on the market in July and still hasn't sold*

* there is slightly more to the story than that but I have it on authority that only 2 people have looked at the property....

 

Edited by eek

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13 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

The boom was in prices and transactions a 'buy while you still can' with loose credit type thing. 2007 was £199k and 1.6m transactions. 2014 to 2017 each saw 1.2m transactions which is close to the average from 1996 to 2003

Apologies for the rough copy and paste.I think we also need to adjust for population.Although I suspect the high numbers in the early 80's were down to right to buy.Transactions peaked in 04 and 1988 for previous cycle.

Table 39a Numbers of property transactions in England and Wales Thousands Year

1980  1981  1982 1983 1984 1985   1986  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992      1993  1994  1995   1996 1997 1998 1999   

1,267 1,351 1,542 1,669 1,760 1,743 1,801 1,937 2,148 1,580 1,398 1,306 1,136 1,196 1,274 1,135 1,242 1,440 1,347 1,469 

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1,433 1,458 1,5861,341 1,786

2005    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1,529 1,801 1,760 1,039   935  983

Sources: Economic Trends, Inland Revenue Statistics, Inland Revenue, HMRC. Note: 1. From 2006, only transactions of £40,000 or more are counted by HMRC.

Edited by sancho panza

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21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Apologies for the rough copy and paste.I think we also need to adjust for population.Although I suspect the high numbers in the early 80's were down to right to buy.Transactions peaked in 04 and 1988 for previous cycle.

Table 39a Numbers of property transactions in England and Wales Thousands Year

1980  1981  1982 1983 1984 1985   1986  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992      1993  1994  1995   1996 1997 1998 1999   

1,267 1,351 1,542 1,669 1,760 1,743 1,801 1,937 2,148 1,580 1,398 1,306 1,136 1,196 1,274 1,135 1,242 1,440 1,347 1,469 

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1,433 1,458 1,5861,341 1,786

2005    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1,529 1,801 1,760 1,039   935  983

Sources: Economic Trends, Inland Revenue Statistics, Inland Revenue, HMRC. Note: 1. From 2006, only transactions of £40,000 or more are counted by HMRC.

Why do I need to adjust for population? I'm not trying to feel sorry for a housing market that isn't a living breathing entity. I get very suspicious of the motives behind such articles. In my mind it's like VI's asking for more props. We are below transactions in the last boom - so what? Instead I'd rather see an article about how many working hours from dual incomes it now needs to buy a house compared to other times.

I was looking at the same data as you this is the link https://www.ukhousingreview.org.uk/ukhr1011/updates/pdf/11-039ab.pdf

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30 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Why do I need to adjust for population? I'm not trying to feel sorry for a housing market that isn't a living breathing entity. I get very suspicious of the motives behind such articles. In my mind it's like VI's asking for more props. We are below transactions in the last boom - so what? Instead I'd rather see an article about how many working hours from dual incomes it now needs to buy a house compared to other times.

I was looking at the same data as you this is the link https://www.ukhousingreview.org.uk/ukhr1011/updates/pdf/11-039ab.pdf

I'm not having a go.

Froma market analysis perpsective we're not necessarily comparing like with like yoy.

Even 2017 vs 2007.Net migration running at 300,000 p.a for some years,housebuilding running at 150,000 net.

The liquidity figures we have have peaked my interest.I'm surprised liquidity in the 80's was so strong with less population and lower prices.

Interesting too that volume rose with prices into the 89 smash.

.

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48 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Why do I need to adjust for population? I'm not trying to feel sorry for a housing market that isn't a living breathing entity. I get very suspicious of the motives behind such articles. In my mind it's like VI's asking for more props. We are below transactions in the last boom - so what? Instead I'd rather see an article about how many working hours from dual incomes it now needs to buy a house compared to other times.

I was looking at the same data as you this is the link https://www.ukhousingreview.org.uk/ukhr1011/updates/pdf/11-039ab.pdf

I think the VI's are most definitely asking for more props.

Personally for amusement,I read the comments on PIE and the general lack of economic understanding-or indeed basic maths-is breathtaking.

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