Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

This is an interesting question that I have been thinking about for a couple of weeks I.e when to buy in a trading account and when to buy into an isa. I assume if you think something is going to make massive capital gains (or is as an income provider from divis) its best in the isa, if not then use CG allowance in trading account....but when we buy do we not hope all trades will go stratospheric?

Thoughts people?

Anything that i intend to hold for more than 2 or 3 years is in a sipp or isa. Out of that, stuff that could have large capital gains is more tilted to the isa

[geordie_lurch]

Shell are down nearly 3% again today and BP are trailing behind as they are only down 2.2% so far but it's only Monday

I know this thread is all about the macro but it 'feels' to me like several of the oilies are going to continue to drop a decent amount amount from here this week but hopefully I'm wrong and they will level off and consolidate before heading higher again 

[AWW]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

[Errol]

What is the West doing?

 

China to build 30 'fully connected' 5G factories by 2023

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has said the nation plans to accelerate its rollout of wireless technology, setting up 30 "fully connected" 5G factories in ten key industries in the next two years.

The action plan highlighted that the next three years (2021-2023) will be a period of rapid growth for China's industrial Internet. During that period emerging business formats will prevail, including intelligent manufacturing, network-based collaboration, and personalized customization, MIIT said.

MIIT data shows that China has already developed over 70 industrial internet platforms, connecting around 60 million sets of industrial equipment and more than 400,000 industrial enterprises.

https://www.rt.com/business/513511-china-30-connected-5g-factories/

[Chewing Grass]

10 minutes ago, Errol said:

including intelligent manufacturing, network-based collaboration, and personalized customization

This is where the West, especially Germany is going to fall flat on its face as they are too inflexible to even contemplate personalised customisation of product.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

This is an interesting question that I have been thinking about for a couple of weeks I.e when to buy in a trading account and when to buy into an isa. I assume if you think something is going to make massive capital gains (or is as an income provider from divis) its best in the isa, if not then use CG allowance in trading account....but when we buy do we not hope all trades will go stratospheric?

Thoughts people?

For me, it's about utlising CGT gains, allowances, and losses AND being able to reclaim foreign withholding taxes when the div income ever becomes big enough.  I need to sit down and model it.  Sadly I'm probably not making enough to warrant the thought ATM!

[Harley]

1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

This is where the West, especially Germany is going to fall flat on its face as they are too inflexible to even contemplate personalised customisation of product.

I was in Germany during the dot.com boom and bust.  It was great to see the younger Germans break free and become quite independent and entrepreneurial but sad when that got crushed in the bust.

[Noallegiance]

30 minutes ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

Polticians warning of moral hazard.

Interesting.

Hopefully they'll get ignored just like the coal thing.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

Viceroy / anyone......

What is Martin Armstrong's track record on forecasting ?

I enjoy reading the snippits you post, but calling his computer Socrates has something of the showman about it and then there is an under tone of hysteria. Combining those 2 traits makes me think of a particular pathology,such as in Freudian terms ( i know i know ) a "genital hysteric" perhaps.

When I first read the latest snippit above I felt he had contradicted himself,   re reading his thoughts im not so sure now. Any ways what are the chances of his calls being correct ?

Makes me pause to wonder how far/deep we need to go with this macro forecast stuff.  Not to say we don't but the extent.  For example, I started off doing deep dives on our beloved industries to the exclusion of others.  Fair enough but that has matured into an alert system that has an open mind regarding anything that pops up and looking for trends in the actual current data.  I don't need to know the whole book in advance but am sufficiently happy to be on alert for such things.  So timing calls really are unnecessary for me.  I do like to seek and test hypotheses though based on actual tradable data.  Somewhere in there lies the optimal balance between the two.

[Noallegiance]

42 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Shell are down nearly 3% again today and BP are trailing behind as they are only down 2.2% so far but it's only Monday

I know this thread is all about the macro but it 'feels' to me like several of the oilies are going to continue to drop a decent amount amount from here this week but hopefully I'm wrong and they will level off and consolidate before heading higher again 

I'm trying to by more BP and Repsol on the dip without success. HL site having issues.

[Loki]

42 minutes ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

Someone should send those fucking idiots the gridwatch site address

[janch]

Another thing missing from the debate about EVs etc is the terrible pollution mainly in China and parts of Africa form the mining for rare metals used in the manufacture of new tech.  The greenies ignore this aspect:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9179751/Toxic-secrets-mobile-phone-called-green-world-depends-mining-metals.htm

The ESG credentials are terrible when this is taken into account.

[Democorruptcy]

25 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm trying to by more BP and Repsol on the dip without success. HL site having issues.

I have a tab open for ISA, SIPP and a couple of potential trades. If the prices aren't updating in the ISA, there is no chance of the trade getting a quote. By comparison the IG Index prices are updating fine. It's like HL lost a link to the LSE but it seems OK now.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

Ex-Governor Carney is now on the climate change side.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/12/01/mark-carneys-new-climate-change-job-comes-with-new-clout.html

 

[geordie_lurch]

54 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm trying to by more BP and Repsol on the dip without success. HL site having issues.

They are only a few % away from the 'stop losses' I set to ditch 50% of BP and Shell just in case they re test the March lows so I can bank some profits in this Stocks and Shares ISA. However I'm fully prepared I might have to buy them again for anything upto 10% more than I sell them for if my gamble doesn't pay off.

[JMD]

This guy's channel is interesting. We post many macro podcasts here which i find great, the opinions of the professional commentators are useful, but this is something slightly different...    

I've linked two of his videos below, first showing his preferred 35%gold/65%stock portfolio, and why it beats other portfolio mix/allocations. The other is his portfolio re-balancing strategy. Great thing is, as he is a mathematician, the videos take you through his 'proof'.

I'm no mathematician, but DurhamBorn or others here might find the maths side insightful (or on the other hand, might say the maths is garbage!).  

Anyway, due to this guys investing success he is actually retiring early, in the next month or so. He will apparently continue to post his You Tube videos, but will also be starting a subscription website where he'll do even deeper dives and research into gold... he sees a money collapse coming because of massive fiat printing, etc, so his investment risks/time-horizons chime with this thread. 

By Request Mixes of Stocks, Bonds, and Gold - YouTube

Asymptotic Rebalancing and Why the Financial Experts get Gold Wrong - YouTube

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Popuplights said:

Yes, used to stick veg oil into my old Peugeot 806. Easy decision when veg oil was less than a pound a litre. Take a funnel to the supermarket, fill up there and chuck the empties in their bins!!

Still far better than spending your money in the Issa brothers fuel station forecourts, according to the newspapers the brothers are apparently 'billionares' - and are currently buying Asda, but i notice they are now also after Top Shop!!! Something doesn't smell right, me thinks their business model - strange beast that it is emerging to be - is driven mainly by their private equity backers... oh well, that's modern day entrepreneurship i suppose (rant over)!

[ThoughtCriminal]

Vaccine rollout in over 80s is going well 🤦‍♂️

 

 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Now if I were a conspiracy theorist............

[JMD]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

Ouch!!... Should we be worried about this story?

Wasn't this the reasoning expressed by the commodity guy Marin Katusa recently - i.e. his concern/prediction was that the borrowing costs for big oil would increase compared to the green energy companies, therefore giving 'green' a big advantage?

I know the arguments about the im-practicalities of green energy supply, but are say the highly indebted oilies (BP, etc) at any particular risk here?

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Viceroy / anyone......

What is Martin Armstrong's track record on forecasting ?

I enjoy reading the snippits you post, but calling his computer Socrates has something of the showman about it and then there is an under tone of hysteria. Combining those 2 traits makes me think of a particular pathology,such as in Freudian terms ( i know i know ) a "genital hysteric" perhaps.

When I first read the latest snippit above I felt he had contradicted himself,   re reading his thoughts im not so sure now. Any ways what are the chances of his calls being correct ?

Having read snippets posted on here of his stuff I just don't buy it. Especially the stuff around how he is some genius level dude who has done some super complex programming to create some clever model that helps him with extremely detailed and long range forecasts. There's the faint impression of the conman, maybe just me not understanding his stuff. I'm happy to be corrected.

On the super clever computer model, why don't goldman or Morgan with their literal armies of quant geniuses develop a similar thing.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Shell are down nearly 3% again today and BP are trailing behind as they are only down 2.2% so far but it's only Monday

I know this thread is all about the macro but it 'feels' to me like several of the oilies are going to continue to drop a decent amount amount from here this week but hopefully I'm wrong and they will level off and consolidate before heading higher again 

I know its fantastic,shaking out weak hands as expected who think the rise was a one off and Biden will kill them all.The market doesnt want to reward every Tom Dick and Harry and the sectors that will provide the biggest profits will continue to shake people out.All those woke funds will go into the biggest inflation cycle of two generations without inflation loving assets.Hopefully they stay down a while to give more choices for divi's flowing in.Deficits will start to hit next year and build up to 2025 in oil and gas.Massive profits towards the end of the cycle,lots of headfakes along the way.

[DurhamBorn]

 

 

35 minutes ago, JMD said:

Ouch!!... Should we be worried about this story?

Wasn't this the reasoning expressed by the commodity guy Marin Katusa recently - i.e. his concern/prediction was that the borrowing costs for big oil would increase compared to the green energy companies, therefore giving 'green' a big advantage?

I know the arguments about the im-practicalities of green energy supply, but are say the highly indebted oilies (BP, etc) at any particular risk here?

We want all this as contrarians,its part of the massive bull run over the cycle.Big oil can self fund,its the smaller players who will leave the market and that means less oil coming onstream.Green energy isnt a threat to oil or gas,Nuclear is and as long as that remains out of favour we will be laughing.

[Hunty]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

They are only a few % away from the 'stop losses' I set to ditch 50% of BP and Shell just in case they re test the March lows so I can bank some profits in this Stocks and Shares ISA. However I'm fully prepared I might have to buy them again for anything upto 10% more than I sell them for if my gamble doesn't pay off.

The support was at 2.85; it crashed through it as we thought it would do, thus in search of the gap at 2.72.

The bottom of this rising channel is ~265, but it should hold at 270. Should, but could hedge a little lower.

272 on the 50 MA daily and 277 for the  200 MA. The 50 MA should cross the 200 MA soon.

Thus signalling a strong rise in the long run.

The market is shaking out the bed wetter's.

Top up on these dips. Long hold for me.

GL.

 

[planit]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Now if I were a conspiracy theorist............

We need to compare that to 70+ deaths, if there is no divergence on figures then vaccines have made no difference up to now.

 

If they are worse then