Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

The last 30 odd years have seen people live longer and longer - and Im using the term 'live' pretty loosely.

This is why I forgo a lot of oppurtunity to make more money. I am comfortable enough, have a decent income and savings, most importantly I earn more than I spend.

Instead I do DIY, spend time with family, help out in the community where I can, grow veg, have chickens and keep myself fairly fit.

My thinking, using a made up unit, is that if you need 10 a month to scrape by, 30 to live ok, and 60 to live well then its probably not worth working yourself to death to get to 80 or 100.

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

That's an incredibly detailed and interesting post @Harley
thanks so much

I don't have any experience trying to use the candles and technicals of charts and relying on my gut instincts alongside what I pick up from here and elsewhere but it's definitely something I'm interested in learning more about... any sites or books you'd recommend?

Yup, went a bit detailed there but helps me to write it down sometimes!  I also posted as I'm interested in what people do, nothing is right or wrong. 

I'm a bit new to candles and am wary of all these things as they become a detailed religion to some.  I like candles for the story they tell about the price action as buyers and sellers play each other.  Plenty on the net covering the basic shapes and what they might signal but key is to really understand how they are constructed and read them in the context of a specific chart - reverse engineer the story they told.

Same for technicals but a far larger exercise   I learnt the basics from a free course offered by a spread betting company.  Again, a light touch from me, really!  80% or whatever comes from just looking at the price chart and reading it in the context of a struggle between the buyers and sellers.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Maybe @DurhamBornwas looking at something like @Hunty's gap chart, which had something to fill around the same figure?

BP is make or break time but for trading only?

I think that area is where weak hands would be shaken out again.This cycle underway is a distribution cycle,and as such the market will reward very few people.It will keep shaking them out of the only assets that can protect wealth in what we have developing so they have to sell assets or work harder to keep up.

I really dont think anyone outside of a select few including this thread know whats underway.It sounds hyperbole,but long complicated supply chains are about to see a sustained attack on all levels.They are going to find all that dis-inflation reversing and inflation being added at every step.

Economists will see something going up in a shop 20% and have no idea that only the de-complex part of the chain has been able to leverage the inflation.

Inflation pulls everything forward as people try to front run it and that pulse runs through everything.I noticed just today prices moving up in Lidl on many items,and lots of items out of stock.

 

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Economists will see something going up in a shop 20% and have no idea that only the de-complex part of the chain has been able to leverage the inflation.

Inflation pulls everything forward as people try to front run it and that pulse runs through everything.I noticed just today prices moving up in Lidl on many items,and lots of items out of stock.

 

It’s ok, they’ll blame it all on Brexit.

[Hunty]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Got there before you, unfortunately!

Shorts Petrofac Link

Once those pesky shorts clear out the bedwetters. Close their postions.

Boom.

She'll be fine. Massively oversold. If she goes under £1 next week, a steal in my opinion. Will be allocationg more the lower she goes.

DYOR.

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

This is why I forgo a lot of oppurtunity to make more money. I am comfortable enough, have a decent income and savings, most importantly I earn more than I spend.

Instead I do DIY, spend time with family, help out in the community where I can, grow veg, have chickens and keep myself fairly fit.

My thinking, using a made up unit, is that if you need 10 a month to scrape by, 30 to live ok, and 60 to live well then its probably not worth working yourself to death to get to 80 or 100.

It will be eight years in June since I gave up that full on job/career malarkey.  It's been a long road since then to find my feet.  Still not fully there, if I ever will be.  I had a crisis of confidence this week questioning what I had done. Then my partner reminded me how unhappy I was and how lucky I've been and what I've done.  True, I have had a nice time, like being a carefree 18 year old again.  Fact is  going it alone is hard work, as most of life's worthy things are.  But perhaps the most interesting thing is how I don't regret the loss of the extra dosh.  Even after eight years it doesn't add up to much after all the taxes, expenses, stress, focus/exclusion, etc.  I'm able to live a very different and cheaper life now.  But I am ready for a new chapter/adventure!

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Shorts Petrofac Link

Once those pesky shorts clear out the bedwetters. Close their postions.

Boom.

She'll be fine. Massively oversold. If she goes under £1 next week, a steal in my opinion. Will be allocationg more the lower she goes.

DYOR.

I hope so.  Thing is, Russians bribing Arabs?  Er ok, and......?  Shorters just doing what shorters do?

[Hunty]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

I hope so.  Thing is, Russians bribing Arabs?  Er ok, and......?  Shorters just doing what shorters do?

The SFO thing is priced in. It will be a fine more than likely; probably managed over a period of time. It's old news, but the shorts are basing their positions on a massive over reaction to a negative outcome in my opinion. The retail investors are spooked. Buy on fear.

It's a long hold for me. Just hope she dips lower next week.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

At the start of this thread i ran my own one man band,but successful import business.I had built up from seed capital a good amount and on paper it was at the stage where you could of really pushed it forward,however my macro roadmap said to me my capital was far better pulled out,the business ran down etc.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55740063

If i was running today id of had factory orders made in China that needed to ship.Those costs would destroy you.Instead i bought goldies and then our reflation areas.

Its a great example about how this cycle end is causing massive financial dislocation.Lots of companies will be destroyed,and the ones that survive will be putting up their prices.The shippers getting an inflation pulse will order new ships,the energy use will grow fast.

People mix economics with macro.They dont understand the leads and lags of things.The consumer end of a cycle uses a lot less energy than the capital asset production that comes at the start of a new cycle.

In the above who will make money?

The oil,the gas,the steel etc etc,

Who will loose?

The retailer,the consumer,

The start of the chain gains and passes on  the inflation,the back side of the chain cant and sees margins destroyed.

The above is this threads thesis playing out,yet most have no idea whats going on.

 

DB, you not only forecast the next cycle, you also 'live it'!!! I mentioned once a long while back now that there must be a book to be written (by you of course), but your recent idea of having a website sounded epic! Really hope it happens.                        

[Harley]

31 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think that area is where weak hands would be shaken out again.This cycle underway is a distribution cycle,and as such the market will reward very few people.It will keep shaking them out of the only assets that can protect wealth in what we have developing so they have to sell assets or work harder to keep up.

I really dont think anyone outside of a select few including this thread know whats underway.It sounds hyperbole,but long complicated supply chains are about to see a sustained attack on all levels.They are going to find all that dis-inflation reversing and inflation being added at every step.

Economists will see something going up in a shop 20% and have no idea that only the de-complex part of the chain has been able to leverage the inflation.

Inflation pulls everything forward as people try to front run it and that pulse runs through everything.I noticed just today prices moving up in Lidl on many items,and lots of items out of stock.

 

That's it, right there, bang!  Amen!

[Democorruptcy]

28 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It’s ok, they’ll blame it all on Brexit.

On the local news this week the ferries coming into Holyhead Port were practically empty. Usually jam packed and 2 lorries on. Stenna are re-routing ferries away from Holyhead because it's costing them too much to run empty. Brexit and lockdown blamed.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

This is why I forgo a lot of oppurtunity to make more money. I am comfortable enough, have a decent income and savings, most importantly I earn more than I spend.

Instead I do DIY, spend time with family, help out in the community where I can, grow veg, have chickens and keep myself fairly fit.

My thinking, using a made up unit, is that if you need 10 a month to scrape by, 30 to live ok, and 60 to live well then its probably not worth working yourself to death to get to 80 or 100.

Majority of people will be lucky to have an active I.e spending money retirement beyond ~80.

You only need cash for the first 10 years.

After that, it tends to be pottering, then waiting for the reaper to come for tea.

Dont do anything to compromise your long term health.

That includes stressing yourself to a heart attack.

It also include excessive repetitive impact exercise like running.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

That's it, right there, bang!  Amen!

Yep.

I have been getting quotes for the last bit of work on my house, a new glass extension. Been putting it off until recently as it's an expensive thermal low U value jobbie. After reading DBs above post I have decided to go for it now and not wait any longer. That's my house pretty much done, and I am debt free as of this month. Now to keep adding those inflation loving assets as good as I can and hope for the best.

I am running my business part-time now, took a while to get the hours down, but I will stick with this set up going forward. I offer a service not a product and I hope this will protect my profit over the next decade.

Loving this thread its like your favourite book with more great pages being written every day

.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Problem with COVID is it was quickly co-opted as another front in the culture war, and there's now a dataset or analysis to suit every hypothesis.

I followed Dr Clare Craig for a while, but quickly realised she's as bad as the scamdemic rampers. She tweeted this study a while back, citing a conclusion that was the *exact* opposite of what was written in the text of the article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30180-8/fulltext

But I can't link the tweet, she's deleted everything from last year - that in itself is a huge red flag.

Literally the only data and analysis I feel I can now trust is my own observations made from immediate family, friends, acquaintances (NB: ignoring test results, just looking at illness).

My conclusion: the truth is somewhere in the middle - there's no plague-level killer on the loose, but this isn't a normal flu season either. I've certainly never seen flu rip through a fit and healthy family of 8 adults aged 20 to 60, put every last one of them on their arse for weeks on end, and hospitalise 2 of them.

As ever, DYOR (and I mean that literally).

Jamtomorrow, I think its very good point you make there, when you say Covid was co-opted as just another front in the political culture wars. It would adequately explain why government policies have been both so impractical and failing. And also why for example, the MSM have been so unquestioning and apparently guiless, ie it suits their own agenda, and moreover they have shown themselves totally untrustworthy. The massive fail by all our institutions is obvious for those individuals who want to see, but as I have written more so recently (because I find things increasingly bleak), for me it is also making me fearful for the future... 'Economic hard-times' were baked in to the coming cycle, but I really can't be coping with continuous wall to wall propaganda, crass (spastic?) theories, and social/tribal mistrust/in-fighting.

[Castlevania]

35 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

On the local news this week the ferries coming into Holyhead Port were practically empty. Usually jam packed and 2 lorries on. Stenna are re-routing ferries away from Holyhead because it's costing them too much to run empty. Brexit and lockdown blamed.

What did we import from Ireland other than food?

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

 

By 2030 you will own nothing and you will be happy.

More and more coming round to thinking that those might be the lyrics to this year's Christmas John Lewis TV advert !!!!

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What did we import from Ireland other than food?

I assumed it could be anything. I don't know if this is correct but they said Holyhead is the 2nd busiest Port in the UK and a lot of stuff came to us via Ireland from France. Maybe more than being worried about shelves being empty they were concerned about jobs at Holyhead if stuff was re-routed from France to our more Southern ports or other countries instead.

[working woman]

 

As the last few contributions to the thread have been about Technical Analysis, which I am finding interesting, as a novice, here is my small contribution - Golden Crosses (Buy Signals). 

BP      -  the 50 day and 200 day Moving Averages are very near to making a Golden Cross.

           - the 100 and 200 day Moving Averages are nowhere near meeting yet.             

RDSB - the 50 day and 200 day Moving Averages made a Golden Cross on the 4th Jan.

           - the 100 day and 200 day Moving Averages are very close to making a Golden Cross.  

I know this thread has a longer term view, but am aware some people may also want to do short-term trading as well. If anyone is interested, I am happy to post when I spot any Golden Crosses.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

The last 30 odd years have seen people live longer and longer - and Im using the term 'live' pretty loosely.

I was talking about his with my mam as she was off for her jab.

When I was a kid in the 80s there really was not many old people alive. Most blokes were finished off in their 60s heart attack. The women tend to follow, before they were 80.

On the TV news and at my mums vaccine centre, there were loads of OAPS wheeling their parents to get a jab.

'Eeeh, if it was a dog a dog theyd put it down'

The UK has wasted a fortune spending on healthcare which has only gone on keeping very old OAPs sucking soup.

Covid is new flu-like virus. To add to normal flu.

The 95%+ of C19 deaths are 75+ with co morbidities.

30 years ago the majority of these people would have died long ago of something else.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spygirl, I agre. Covid is a bit like nature's fuse to our demographic time bomb problem. Btw i don't expect the politicians to simply light that fuse but I do expect society - political/media/health experts - to debate it properly.                                                                                                                                                         Excuse me asking, but if you'd like to share, I would be interested in what your mam's thoughts were as you say this was a conversation you both had. I ask because I think older peoples opinions are key to this debate.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 I noticed just today prices moving up in Lidl on many items,and lots of items out of stock.

 

I don't notice items. I do bags.

Feeding a family of five from Aldi or Lidl this time last year was five bags for between £75-£90 with a full trolley.

Yesterday? £72 for three bags and just over half a trolley. The last two full trollies we're over £100.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

It will be eight years in June since I gave up that full on job/career malarkey.  It's been a long road since then to find my feet.  Still not fully there, if I ever will be.  I had a crisis of confidence this week questioning what I had done. Then my partner reminded me how unhappy I was and how lucky I've been and what I've done.  True, I have had a nice time, like being a carefree 18 year old again.  Fact is  going it alone is hard work, as most of life's worthy things are.  But perhaps the most interesting thing is how I don't regret the loss of the extra dosh.  Even after eight years it doesn't add up to much after all the taxes, expenses, stress, focus/exclusion, etc.  I'm able to live a very different and cheaper life now.  But I am ready for a new chapter/adventure!

I handed my notice in last week Harley again.One of the best paid companies in the area by a long way.I doubt they get very many people giving notice.I know il never regret it,the same as i never have.My time is worth more than any employer will pay me.Cant wait to get cooking again,my kids can be calling in on the way home from work for quality healthy home cooked meals.My dad will be getting took out again and all the other simple things in life.Looking forward to doing a few jobs on the house and my kids houses etc,im loving my big new ladders,something i actually paid full price for.

Above all though my tax bill will fall to almost zero outside of council tax.Why fund our idiot government?

[Castlevania]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I assumed it could be anything. I don't know if this is correct but they said Holyhead is the 2nd busiest Port in the UK and a lot of stuff came to us via Ireland from France. Maybe more than being worried about shelves being empty they were concerned about jobs at Holyhead if stuff was re-routed from France to our more Southern ports or other countries instead.

It doesn’t make sense to ship stuff from France to Ireland and then to the U.K. Unless it was much cheaper.

[JMD]

For scarce assets, how about investing in an art fund that buys and holds 'museum/collector type' art? Haven't read it fully yet and not advise of course - but if interested Google Masterworks.io.

[M S E Refugee]

RMG update!

Amazon have started delivering their own items in my local area but so far only in the busiest postcode and this has seen a noticeable drop in work.

Royal Mail needs to get rid of the USO or it won't be able to compete.

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think that area is where weak hands would be shaken out again.This cycle underway is a distribution cycle,and as such the market will reward very few people.It will keep shaking them out of the only assets that can protect wealth in what we have developing so they have to sell assets or work harder to keep up.

I really dont think anyone outside of a select few including this thread know whats underway.It sounds hyperbole,but long complicated supply chains are about to see a sustained attack on all levels.They are going to find all that dis-inflation reversing and inflation being added at every step.

Economists will see something going up in a shop 20% and have no idea that only the de-complex part of the chain has been able to leverage the inflation.

Inflation pulls everything forward as people try to front run it and that pulse runs through everything.I noticed just today prices moving up in Lidl on many items,and lots of items out of stock.

 

It's going to be very interesting. We will be tendering a number of construction projects this year. The last two tenders came in a little under budget. At some point it will no doubt flip the other way. If a builder is caught out they will be super cautious for the next project (unless they are desperate for work and then the usual outcome is insolvency). I'm preparing estimates for clients on a regular basis and I get particularly nervous if I'm asked to predict inflation 2 or 3 years ahead.