Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DoINeedOne]

pension funds in the future 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Hunty said:

The support was at 2.85; it crashed through it as we thought it would do, thus in search of the gap at 2.72.

The bottom of this rising channel is ~265, but it should hold at 270. Should, but could hedge a little lower.

272 on the 50 MA daily and 277 for the  200 MA. The 50 MA should cross the 200 MA soon.

Thus signalling a strong rise in the long run.

The market is shaking out the bed wetter's.

Top up on these dips. Long hold for me.

GL.

 

You (like others) have obviously seen this coming but not sold and re-bought for more units. Temporary weak handed bed wetter and proud of it

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

pension funds in the future 

Even if you thought it was the right call it takes a Gordon Brown level of idiocy to announce you are selling before you do.

Good news for us though. The time to buy more approaches.

[DurhamBorn]

56 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Even if you thought it was the right call it takes a Gordon Brown level of idiocy to announce you are selling before you do.

Good news for us though. The time to buy more approaches.

The woke left mean it,no doubt about that,Pelosi has put $1million into Tesla 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-stock-pelosi-bet-biden-administration

Its incredible to think how corrupt the dems are so they will do all they can to push green energy.They will run up against rising rates once we get into the cycle though.All these funds,Biden,government here,EU governments etc are all placing policy based on fully engaged CBs.Those CBs will stop printing within 18 months,maybe within 12.

Of course the left really wants to remove transport etc from ordinary people,its political,not climate related.2022 to 2025 massive uplift in fossil fuel prices.

[Popuplights]

6 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

This is where the West, especially Germany is going to fall flat on its face as they are too inflexible to even contemplate personalised customisation of product.

Ordnung ist Ordnung. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

6 hours ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

 

59 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Even if you thought it was the right call it takes a Gordon Brown level of idiocy to announce you are selling before you do.

Good news for us though. The time to buy more approaches.

 

@Yadda yadda yaddaTotally AGREE, what caught my eye though was the above from AWW in a round about way, this is a similar CONTRARY moment to that idiot "Gordon Brown SELL GOLD" ... This time OIL!

 

Oh golly Boys & Girls are WE going to CLEAN UP!

 

 

[Popuplights]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Ex-Governor Carney is now on the climate change side.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/12/01/mark-carneys-new-climate-change-job-comes-with-new-clout.html

 

Carney would sell his own mother for a few dollars (CAN)

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.ft.com/content/8e69d4da-00d2-4ada-96f0-b5dc5c7ca40a

BP and Shell have the two biggest charging networks now and will wipe out the others by pumping in capital.Those funds are dumping the companies who will end up owning a big chunk of green infrastructure 

 

[Popuplights]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.ft.com/content/8e69d4da-00d2-4ada-96f0-b5dc5c7ca40a

BP and Shell have the two biggest charging networks now and will wipe out the others by pumping in capital.Those funds are dumping the companies who will end up owning a big chunk of green infrastructure 

 

Yeah, I noticed that too. 

As part of my retirement I get to talk to an IFA. Bloke looked at my portfolio, reckoned it was insanely risky, and then said I ought to sell my tranche of XOM that I got through the share save plan at a massive discount! I will stick to making my own decisions I think, guided by this thread. 

[Talking Monkey]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The woke left mean it,no doubt about that,Pelosi has put $1million into Tesla 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-stock-pelosi-bet-biden-administration

Its incredible to think how corrupt the dems are so they will do all they can to push green energy.They will run up against rising rates once we get into the cycle though.All these funds,Biden,government here,EU governments etc are all placing policy based on fully engaged CBs.Those CBs will stop printing within 18 months,maybe within 12.

Of course the left really wants to remove transport etc from ordinary people,its political,not climate related.2022 to 2025 massive uplift in fossil fuel prices.

DB what's the political driver to want to remove transport from ordinary people

[sancho panza]

On 24/01/2021 at 16:57, dnb24 said:

Might help with direction of travel Over next 5-10 years, CANZUK looks pretty much nailed on - Gregory Copley on this-

https://audioboom.com/posts/7777025-if-biden-abandons-the-uk-its-only-choice-will-be-canzuk-gregory-r-copley-defense-and-foreign?playlist_direction=forward

The political fallout alluded to between UK and USA in the Copley piece is interesting and Douglas Murray also weighs in on this with this piece-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9179953/DOUGLAS-MURRAY-Left-stop-fawning-Joe-Biden-fear-wont-end-well.html

 

Funny you shoudl psot this,I was thinking about the fall of Rome the other day with regard to the USA.End of an era.Just hope we get one more flight to safety in the dollar.

Liked this bit

'There is something of the late Roman empire about this, the arrogance of a ruling elite in terminal decline. The world's most powerful man gets into office at a time of unprecedented crisis and one of his first priorities is to ensure that men who identify as women should be allowed to use female changing rooms and pulverise any woman he comes across in competitive sports. All in the name of equality, obviously.

It didn't end well for Rome, and I fear it won't end well for America.'

 

 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB what's the political driver to want to remove transport from ordinary people

Carbon hysteria, Great Reset, green, etc.  

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Carbon hysteria, Great Reset, green, etc.  

covid in cars (and buses)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

19 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB what's the political driver to want to remove transport from ordinary people

I'll be interested in his answer too. Not sure if they are myself. Three possible I can think of.

1. They believe it is best for the long term if the plebs don't pollute the environment and use resources too quickly.

2. They are proper socialists and want to level everyone beneath down as levelling up isn't possible.

3. We get in their way. Much better if we're stuck in the cities using public transport. We clog up airports, roads, tourist destinations, galleries, museums and countryside that their patrons would rather have to themselves.

The first is the least worst. Likely that 1 is cover for 2 which achieves 3.

DB might have a better idea 

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

covid in cars (and buses)

what you laughing at im serious.

"The woke left mean it,no doubt about that,Pelosi has put $1million into Tesla 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-stock-pelosi-bet-biden-administration"

I notice pelosi isnt too well liked by many people either, Ive no love for her, but mainly because i often wondered what happened to my dads false teeth after he died, i couldnt find them anywhere, but ive got an idea that theyve made it into her old gob by the look of it.

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, Viceroy said:

 

Europe is in trouble. Our capital flow models show movement to the USA for higher yield, but also to the Chinese market with a yield of about 3% and a depth of $16 trillion. This is how China eventually becomes the financial capital of the world. It is a gradual process by post-2032 after the UN and World Economic Forum have undermined Western society, the only rational place will be Asia. China is also working very diligently to expand its own market to reduce its reliance on the US consumer market. Things are changing if you pay attention.

There are many who keep preaching the demise of the dollar and fail utterly to understand even what a reserve currency is and why. All they focus on is debt and prognosticate the doom of the dollar. The IMF has acknowledged the dominance of the dollar as the reserve currency and that it is likely to endure. Yet at the same time, they are looking at a transition to digital currencies and trying to fathom if this will even change the landscape. Others are warning that now that Biden will be president, he will ensure the dollar crumbles because they will be handing out money like crazy.

The real threat to the dollar and will not be a digital currency. Instead, it is the realization that the IMF and the West cannot be trusted. China is moving to a digital currency at lightning speed but it is also setting up through its modern silk-road the alternative to bother the US consumer market and the Western SWIFT world of control. China is developing an alternative to allow it to clear and use its own digital currency in a new world 
The DEMISE of the dollar is underway, but it will take time. It appears the dollar will lose that status by 2028 and it will be gone by 2036. What BigTech is doing right now with their insane censorship is in fact the overthrow of the United States and setting it in fact for the collapse that our Computer has been forecasting for post-2032.

In all my studies, the critical factor has never been the quantity of money. That is always what people point to with hindsight. It is the crack in CONFIDENCE that starts the process and then as governments are confronted by capital fleeing, that is when the debasement begins. It appears that the election of Biden is indeed the crack in confidence we have been waiting for. The markets will reveal their true vote perhaps in February/March.
This election has been the crack in confidence we have been waiting for. Trump came in on the Pi target right to the day - 2017.05 inauguration of Trump. Now the next two waves will be authoritarian and they intend to eliminate "populism" which means ending free elections. Harris will take the presidency from Biden and two terms of 4 years takes her into 2032.

As I've said before Viceroy,Armstrongs real strength as a commentator is when he steps back and uses his not inconsiderable economic historical knowledge to put the current scenario in the widest of timreframes.

Thanks for psoting.

7 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Shell are down nearly 3% again today and BP are trailing behind as they are only down 2.2% so far but it's only Monday

I know this thread is all about the macro but it 'feels' to me like several of the oilies are going to continue to drop a decent amount amount from here this week but hopefully I'm wrong and they will level off and consolidate before heading higher again 

Interesting sell off in the majors.

given this

[Democorruptcy]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.ft.com/content/8e69d4da-00d2-4ada-96f0-b5dc5c7ca40a

BP and Shell have the two biggest charging networks now and will wipe out the others by pumping in capital.Those funds are dumping the companies who will end up owning a big chunk of green infrastructure 

 

When you mentioned BP I wondered if they had done better developing their own network from scratch instead of having to buy one. Turns out they bought Chargemaster and the Polar network in 2018. Maybe paid less getting in earlier.

https://www.bppulse.co.uk/about-us

[sancho panza]

An old series I haven't checked in some time.Wolf wrote on the subject a few days back.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/01/22/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-7-7-in-december-another-record-high

 

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm trying to by more BP and Repsol on the dip without success. HL site having issues.

I've sold some MOS (almost doubled since I bought, I'm happy to take profits as dividend potential seems lower than oil) and will reinvest into the oiles if they drop a bit more.

 

I am very overweight in oil now - about 60% of the portfolio.  But it just seems to be so damn good for almost any future.  War?! oil demand.  Inflation?! oil demand Green energy boost?!  Oily companies critical to demand 

I'm wondering what else to diversify into.  Uranium again?

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'll be interested in his answer too. Not sure if they are myself. Three possible I can think of.

1. They believe it is best for the long term if the plebs don't pollute the environment and use resources too quickly.

2. They are proper socialists and want to level everyone beneath down as levelling up isn't possible.

3. We get in their way. Much better if we're stuck in the cities using public transport. We clog up airports, roads, tourist destinations, galleries, museums and countryside that their patrons would rather have to themselves.

The first is the least worst. Likely that 1 is cover for 2 which achieves 3.

DB might have a better idea 

I've posted on this before. The invention of the private car opened the world up to the average person hugely.  Then mass tourism.

The 1% want a turnback to the 1920's and earlier, when mass tourism and movement of the plebs simply did not happen.  My grandfather was the first person in his village to drive a car (part of his job).  Very few people in his village had ever travelled more than 50 miles from their home.  In the cities, the plebs and their kids stayed in their areas, with maybe a trip to the seaside once a year as a big treat.  By railway, of course.

The rich, meanwhile, got to do the grand tour of europe, had a house in the country and one in town, and were much more mobile. 

The hard greens think that the 1% want no cars because of MUH PLANET.  I know they want it because the 1% see it as their planet, not the plebs.

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

I've posted on this before. The invention of the private car opened the world up to the average person hugely.  Then mass tourism.

The 1% want a turnback to the 1920's and earlier, when mass tourism and movement of the plebs simply did not happen.  My grandfather was the first person in his village to drive a car (part of his job).  Very few people in his village had ever travelled more than 50 miles from their home.  In the cities, the plebs and their kids stayed in their areas, with maybe a trip to the seaside once a year as a big treat.  By railway, of course.

The rich, meanwhile, got to do the grand tour of europe, had a house in the country and one in town, and were much more mobile. 

The hard greens think that the 1% want no cars because of MUH PLANET.  I know they want it because the 1% see it as their planet, not the plebs.

 

This.They want to concentrate people in cities and save the resources for themselves.Its pretty obvious whats going on.Or start from a much lower base.

[Barnsey]

"Close and longstanding economic relationship" = watch and learn.

So this is how it's going to end.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Popuplights said:

Yeah, I noticed that too. 

As part of my retirement I get to talk to an IFA. Bloke looked at my portfolio, reckoned it was insanely risky, and then said I ought to sell my tranche of XOM that I got through the share save plan at a massive discount! I will stick to making my own decisions I think, guided by this thread. 

He wants you to buy a 60/40 fund and have 40% of your wealth in gilts and treasuries.Then charge a 1% fee+ platform fees + fund fees etc and see 2% a year gone before you start.Those fees plus and flatline at best over a decade are whats going to kill people in drawdown.

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

...

So this is how it's going to end.

The Big Short Squeeze took down a hedge fund recently

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-casualty-big-short-squeeze-melvin-capital-gets-275bn-bailout-citadel-point72-after

An update on their put positions which they had to disclose...

"Last Friday, in the aftermath of the Gamespot's historic eruption which sent the stock from $40 to the mid-70s (before it doubled again on Monday rising as high as $158), we had a feeling which way the wind was blowing and laid out all the Russell 3000 stocks that had the highest Short Interest (50%> of float)."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-melvin-capitals-crushed-put-positions

Finally as Zerohedge states...

"Bottom line: brace for even more fireworks as WallStreetbets reignites the squeeze, only this time it won't be Melvin but some other hedge fund that will be crushed under the collective weight of a few thousand Robinhood bulls.
...all with the help of a few thousand stimmychecked Gen-Zers."

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

"Close and longstanding economic relationship" = watch and learn.

So this is how it's going to end.

Have you seen the price action in GameStop shares the past two days? Insane.