Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, arrow said:

Many years ago I read about how after Ww2 British industry wanted trade controls against Germany as they couldn't compete. How bad do you have to be at running a company to be unable to compete against a bombed out country.

My old man was born in 1935, he always used to say that Germany won the war in industrial, financial and economic terms.

He was a lifelong Labour voter but stopped voting for them after attending a union Xmas do in the 1960s. They were eating strawberries in December, shocked him to the core.

[AWW]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Its funny that was the converastion I was having with Mrs P t'other day.If she gets laid off tmrw and I get laid off,we can live,pay rents with the divis and still ahve something left for food and transport.We buy a hosue ,that option is gone and we're on the treadmill for antoher ten years at leasrt

This is one of the things I love about this thread. I don't know anyone in real life who I could have a similar exchange with. I've been out of work for six months now, hobby businesses aside. Had we bought a house just before Covid hit, I don't think I'd sleep at night. As things are, I don't actually need to get a job for another ten years. And they say property ownership is security... I do resent being stuck in London during such a long period of time off though. In normal times, when work dries up, we bung our stuff in storage and take a very, very long holiday. Some might call it a gap yah. That option is obviously unavailable right now, and likely to remain so for a few months yet.

[Noallegiance]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

whos the author NA?

David Dreman

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Dogtania said:

Interesting re dogs.  A person I sometimes interact with at work, think he's already post retirement but just comes here for fun or to be annoying.  Owns a French Pitbull (how much?).  Was saying the other week he's getting a bitch or hiring one for his bitch.  Said he'd give me one later in the year (er no thanks).

Guess they see it as an easy money making opportunity.  I don't know anything about breeding animals but can't say I blame him, it has always seemed that way to me although not looked at the fine detail.  

Maybe puppy price inflation will turn to deflationary so could be good advice to hold out.  Although maybe the good places to buy from will still be all booked up.  A friend has been after a Staffordshire for a while, at least once he's been to visit and got cold feet/ something not felt right with the operation etc.  Demand still definitely there but going forward will be sad if dodgy dealers selling to bad owners who go on to abuse or abandon.

 

My daughters partner is a gypsy,they live in a big caravan,and he also owns land.They breed dogs properly ,lovely kennels etc.They have been getting £15k a litter and making nuts amounts of money.He has used the money from some to build himself a lovely stable block for horses.He cant read or write,but hes a great lad and hard working,he will never be skint.

For the pizza brigade iv been using different Italian flour instead of Caputo and its superb.My bases have been incredible,just using live yeast though,buy in a big block and freeze in 12g bits for 2 pizzas,

Only thing is though the shelf life is only 4 months,so be careful if you dont use a lot.2 months over date for use is fine though.If you want longer dates message sellers and see who has long dated stock

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Casillo-Farina-Italiana-Italian-Flour-00-for-Pasta-Pizza-and-Cakes-10-x-1kg/373033501299?ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&_trksid=p2057872.m2749.l2648

 

Iv also been making superb shortcrust pastry for pies with this recipe.The beauty is its just flour and vegetable oil so much more healthy and dirt cheap,45p flour from Lidl 1.5k bag i find best.I use a food processor with the dough arm on to mix,key is mix the oil and water and get it very cold before use and roll out pastry on cling film.Beautiful chicken and leek plate pies for £1.50.Add some sugar to mix and apple pies,iv got bags of them free from my dads trees.

http://allrecipes.co.uk/recipe/25276/easy-never-fail-pastry.aspx

[ILikeCake]

22 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I know a bunch of people that sell dogs and cats, and there are more people buying them with the intention to breed them. Even unworked horses are getting bought up. Male spaniels sold for £2000, females for £4000. If anyone wants a dog I would wait a few years. If they bother them during their first show then the first pups will be born this summer.

Theres a town near me thats mostly wealthy retired people. Apparently price of a coffee and piece of cake in the tiny independent cafe went from about £3 to £4 last summer,so I guess it will be £5+ this summer.

I think a lot of that pent up demand will be in retirees rather than working folk - working people bought office furniture, stuff to distract the kids, subscriptions to streaming sites and got a scare which made them save. Retired folk with a paid off mortgage will be the big spenders I think.

I've mentioned this on here before, my in laws have a kitchen and bathroom business.  They were going to retire last year but have decided to keep going due to business being so good.  They sell high end stuff and it's mostly retired folk who are doing the buying.

[DoINeedOne]

22 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm reading a book about macro investing right now.

I'm going to be posting snippets that nudge my interest. Here's a few out of the first chapter:

What book is this?

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My daughters partner is a gypsy,they live in a big caravan,and he also owns land.They breed dogs properly ,lovely kennels etc.They have been getting £15k a litter and making nuts amounts of money.He has used the money from some to build himself a lovely stable block for horses.He cant read or write,but hes a great lad and hard working,he will never be skint.

For the pizza brigade iv been using different Italian flour instead of Caputo and its superb.My bases have been incredible,just using live yeast though,buy in a big block and freeze in 12g bits for 2 pizzas,

Only thing is though the shelf life is only 4 months,so be careful if you dont use a lot.2 months over date for use is fine though.If you want longer dates message sellers and see who has long dated stock

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Casillo-Farina-Italiana-Italian-Flour-00-for-Pasta-Pizza-and-Cakes-10-x-1kg/373033501299?ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&_trksid=p2057872.m2749.l2648

 

Iv also been making superb shortcrust pastry for pies with this recipe.The beauty is its just flour and vegetable oil so much more healthy and dirt cheap,45p flour from Lidl 1.5k bag i find best.I use a food processor with the dough arm on to mix,key is mix the oil and water and get it very cold before use and roll out pastry on cling film.Beautiful chicken and leek plate pies for £1.50.Add some sugar to mix and apple pies,iv got bags of them free from my dads trees.

http://allrecipes.co.uk/recipe/25276/easy-never-fail-pastry.aspx

On it!  Lots of tinned chicken in sauce from my Jan prepping!  And a passable c5 minute microwaved steamed pud for afters.  Even easier with a small (loosely covered?) neoprene type bowl.  Smaller bowls better.  Chopped apples at the bottom or some jam or syrup topping later or mix in coffee or cocoa.  Reheat left overs later for a minute or less with custard on top to keep it moist or for seconds to soften and then pour hot custard over.  Just needs SR flour, maybe a bit more soda, milk, optional little melted butter or oil, and sugar if you must.  Savoury version called a dumpling!  Just what you need right now. 

PS:  The viscocity of the mix needs practice.  And it ain't ever going to be gran's longform!

[Noallegiance]

26 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

What book is this?

 

[MrXxxx]

This weeks Macrovoices podcast is interesting, especially from 30min onwards as it suggests a mechanism why the next BK may be a 'flash'/short term opportunity to buy at the bottom.

[https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-dvvnc-fa766a?utm_campaign=w_share_ep&utm_medium=dlink&utm_source=w_share]

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

 

I have the other one mentioned at the bottom, I need to get this one now then!

[Loki]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/power-bills-moon-chaos-shock-electricity-prices-across-us-explode

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/supply-frozen-polar-vortex-sends-great-plains-natgas-prices-record-highs

Marvellous. 

[DurhamBorn]

This is exactly the sort of thing we expected to happen.SSE is a sitting duck for a big oily to take over,if i was CEO of Shell id of launched a bid when the shares hit £10.However SSE will likely try to do deals with all these big oilies.SSE are experts on the cable side and with big oil capital and engineering skills a win win.SSE and Shell and Bp have a chance to eat the big European utility companies lunch.Big oil is going to have massive free cash in a few years and its crucial they have the projects and partnerships in place.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-9256953/SSE-15bn-plan-global-windfarms-giant.html

Phillips-Davies said he would be keen to partner with BP and Shell on renewable projects as they transition towards greener energy. 

'They are two of a number of parties we are speaking to,' he said. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

21 hours ago, janch said:

You've mentioned this a couple of times and I'm curious as to where one would hide it!   Maybe I shouldn't ask especially on learning what you previous occupation was.

😆

 

I say hide, but it's more a case of making it look like it was never there. 

 

You'd be surprised how many people buy commercial premises without spending 600 quid on an asbestos survey, then find themselves In a world of shit. 

 

So if any DOSBODERS make that mistake, group discount rates apply 😂

[leonardratso]

these guys are hiding asbestos in oil barrels, cos no one ever looks in those;

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8964941/Wittenoom-dangerous-ghost-town-Australia-just-breathing-air-kill-you.html

[Lightscribe]

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

She's late 30's and she doesn't know anyone of a similar age to her thru work who retns.It's how it is these days.I know lots of people with shedloads of debt and no understanding of interest rate risk.

This is the issue that constantly plagues my mind, with the whole roadmap. I have no intention of getting rich nor is there anything materially that I would desire i.e. boats, cars, homes abroad etc, all that comes with hassles and constant fees in relation to how much you use them.

Once I sell everything I have (including BTC - there’s that word again) and my current property, I would move near the coast with a decent garden and that’s me done mortgage free. I would then reduce my hours at work and go part time (no lockdown for me as I need to be physically there) due to the hassle of commuting. 

But the main issue I grapple with is what happens to the rest of the country? My friends have openly said to me when I’ve told them of potentially what awaits that they wouldn’t be able to afford their mortgage if interest rates even move slightly. I think this goes for most the country and would wipe out the younger generation in one swoop into negative equity and unaffordable payments. What would the government do in this scenario as they certainly couldn’t provide social housing.

That’s why the more I think about it, the more negative rates seem likely and they let the currency go to toilet paper. Great reset 2030.

[Dogtania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My daughters partner is a gypsy,they live in a big caravan,and he also owns land.They breed dogs properly ,lovely kennels etc.They have been getting £15k a litter and making nuts amounts of money.He has used the money from some to build himself a lovely stable block for horses.He cant read or write,but hes a great lad and hard working,he will never be skint.

For the pizza brigade iv been using different Italian flour instead of Caputo and its superb.My bases have been incredible,just using live yeast though,buy in a big block and freeze in 12g bits for 2 pizzas,

Only thing is though the shelf life is only 4 months,so be careful if you dont use a lot.2 months over date for use is fine though.If you want longer dates message sellers and see who has long dated stock

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Casillo-Farina-Italiana-Italian-Flour-00-for-Pasta-Pizza-and-Cakes-10-x-1kg/373033501299?ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&_trksid=p2057872.m2749.l2648

 

Iv also been making superb shortcrust pastry for pies with this recipe.The beauty is its just flour and vegetable oil so much more healthy and dirt cheap,45p flour from Lidl 1.5k bag i find best.I use a food processor with the dough arm on to mix,key is mix the oil and water and get it very cold before use and roll out pastry on cling film.Beautiful chicken and leek plate pies for £1.50.Add some sugar to mix and apple pies,iv got bags of them free from my dads trees.

http://allrecipes.co.uk/recipe/25276/easy-never-fail-pastry.aspx

Whilst I think some basics are quite useful sounds like without he'll be fine regardless.  Made me think though of the whole intellectual/ intelligence question.  I really don't like people being compared or judged on their alleged intelligence based on school grades.  Was actually having a brief conservation about this a week ago... Was getting told a family members grades weren't quite so good or he is not so studious as older sister who of almost top of everything academia wise.  Had a bit of a go as I'm not interested in such metrics (or don't value massively) and heard it all before, even if it's quite subtle.  Think I said something along the lines of their being all types of intelligence and I don't perceive academic stardom as necessarily better or worse than others.  Think I added that a lot of dyslexics turn out alright desire failing miserably in school etc.  Rather sheepishly was told "oh but she's very nice and that's what's important" bingo that's more along the lines of the point I was trying to make in the first place Einstein.

Pizza sounds great as always, have had that Italian pizza maker on my wish list for years

[ThoughtCriminal]

24 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

these guys are hiding asbestos in oil barrels, cos no one ever looks in those;

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8964941/Wittenoom-dangerous-ghost-town-Australia-just-breathing-air-kill-you.html

That place is legendary. 

 

And still you get crazy bastards actually going into the place!

 

Asbestosis is a horrible death and a visit there absolutely guarantees it. Nuts. 

[working woman]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

What you mean like we do for our disabled war vets?......and then ignore them for the rest of the year like the government do!.....I don't need to be told by the government when to pay my respects to my family, especially when they tried to dictate to others regarding funerals etc.

I am sorry that you have lost a loved one during this awful time.  

[Hancock]

4 hours ago, AWW said:

This is one of the things I love about this thread. I don't know anyone in real life who I could have a similar exchange with. I've been out of work for six months now, hobby businesses aside. Had we bought a house just before Covid hit, I don't think I'd sleep at night. As things are, I don't actually need to get a job for another ten years. And they say property ownership is security... I do resent being stuck in London during such a long period of time off though. In normal times, when work dries up, we bung our stuff in storage and take a very, very long holiday. Some might call it a gap yah. That option is obviously unavailable right now, and likely to remain so for a few months yet.

Depending on the country you may have to quarantine, but flights and hotels have never been cheaper.

If i didnt have the kid id be off tomorrow.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just now, Hancock said:

Depending on the country you may have to quarantine, but flights and hotels have never been cheaper.

If i didnt have the kid id be off tomorrow.

Amen to that. 

 

If I had a transferable skill I'd bugger off and never come back. 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Amen to that. 

 

If I had a transferable skill I'd bugger off and never come back. 

I have just ive a disagreeable ex mrs. who is the shittest mother a woman could be.

edit - shittest human

[MrXxxx]

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The key thing here to appreciate i that in terms of credit creation,the 80's and 90's were very differnt times.Link below talks about life in banks pre Basel and it was pretty mundane.People had to pay interest rates that reflected the risks of lending rather than the risk of the CB's not stepping in.I ahven't studied the period and am happy to defer to those with more knowledge,but pre Basel,it was cash reserve lending,which meant that govts could rein banks in quickly by rasing reserve rates which would lead to an automatic contraction of credit.

These days,banks are holding assets versus liabilites,both sides of the balance sheet being highly gameable in terms of risk weighting assets and not marking laons to market.Even the risk weighting of assets can be blatantly gamed as banks with big enough databases can use the IRB appraoch (based on their own data) as compared to teh satnaddardized approach based on everyone elses

Just to confirm my understanding of this is correct, before banks could only lend what they had now then can lend what they don't [leverage on what they actually have]..correct?

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is exactly the sort of thing we expected to happen.SSE is a sitting duck for a big oily to take over,if i was CEO of Shell id of launched a bid when the shares hit £10.However SSE will likely try to do deals with all these big oilies.SSE are experts on the cable side and with big oil capital and engineering skills a win win.SSE and Shell and Bp have a chance to eat the big European utility companies lunch.Big oil is going to have massive free cash in a few years and its crucial they have the projects and partnerships in place.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-9256953/SSE-15bn-plan-global-windfarms-giant.html

Phillips-Davies said he would be keen to partner with BP and Shell on renewable projects as they transition towards greener energy. 

'They are two of a number of parties we are speaking to,' he said. 

All good if they ever start building them here, which i doubt will happen.

See Infrastrata are going after building windmills with their purchase on Friday.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, AWW said:

In normal times, when work dries up, we bung our stuff in storage and take a very, very long holiday.

Where do you use for this and what are the costs?

[MrXxxx]

54 minutes ago, working woman said:

I am sorry that you have lost a loved one during this awful time.  

Hi WW,

no, I haven't lost family during this Covid period [thanks for your good thoughts though], but I am amazed at those who had, and followed the rules issued by the government not to visit them in hospital or go to the wake/funeral...in the future I am sure they may come to regret it or feel guilt, which is not a good thing...and all because some government ministers who didn't [don't] understand the issue decided 'what was right'.