Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Could well be (a good perspective), though everything is at one time or another, such us the human condition!

Remember Esther Rantzen and the "That's Life" team dealing with Pyramid Scheme's in the 1980s, they were far more straight forward then. 

[Lightscribe]

49 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Are the guy from HPC that would say the same thing, but end it with innit.

Wasn’t that The Wig or something near? The running joke was renting out under stair cupboards etc in HMOs and any complaints just ‘bang the rents up innit’ 

Pity it’s actually true to life, one bonus of Covid means all that may be coming to an end.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I do too. I also have no particular sector that I oppose, because I don’t believe assets should be tied to emotion. I couldn’t care if BTC went to zero, (it nearly has multiple times since 2012 having owned it) I’m in crypto for the long haul, wherever that may lead. I try to remain neutral and invest in everything that I can see value or potential. But then I’ve always believed diversification is the key.

I own a property outright but I want a house price crash (correction is needed for any type of sustainability) I hold BT and Vodafone despite never having a contract with either.  I like tech industry (as that’s the industry I work in) but would never buy in the sector (except ARM, Texas Instruments and TSMC when cheap enough). I’m heavily in oil despite selling out in 2014/15 before the last big fall and thinking that was the last time I would have shares in the sector. I’m invested in miners and a fair amount of physical silver despite not being a gold or silver bug until the lows of the last few years. That’s all before I get to my mountain of UCS Lego’s I’ve never opened/built or investment watches I never wear!

My crypto updates over the years on this thread were always brief discussions. I think with more adoption and wider acceptance and regulation, it may start becoming a small allocation of every portfolio.

I think when people don’t fully agree/understand something, animosity can come with it. Horses for courses, we’ll all end up better placed than 99.9% of the population for what’s coming regardless.

 

Lightscribe, please do keep your crypto posts coming. I know there is a separate crypto thread but agree when you say it is something everyone should own. I am a late investor into crypto and am still learning about it, but did luckily beat the latest run up. I own bitcoin, crypto miners and even some microstrategy and square(companies owning bitcoin, though not Tesla!!), and aim to make these 5% of my portfolio (compared to my current 20% allocation to gold/silver).                                                                                                                          I see crypto as also being a pivot toward (decomplex play of?) the fintech sector, which along with the demise of banking, etc, will become huge this decade.                                                                                               I do also have a question. Would you know the current number of BTC addresses in existence, as opposed to the number of bitcoins? I ask because I'm interested in knowing approx. how many individuals may own BTC. There are currently 18 million bitcoins but I expect there to be a lot less addresses/individual owners?   

[geordie_lurch]

13 minutes ago, JMD said:

Would you know the current number of BTC addresses in existence, as opposed to the number of bitcoins? I ask because I'm interested in knowing approx. how many individuals may own BTC. There are currently 18 million bitcoins but I expect there to be a lot less addresses/individual owners?   

I posted a link to some similar data earlier in this thread @JMD - see the page below which should give you some of the detail you want however by it's very nature it's very hard to try and tie individual addresses to distinct owners. For example, I could have X number of different BTC wallets each with multiple BTC addresses stored anywhere in the world and then also have BTC held on various third party exchanges such as coinbase etc again with multiple addresses but nothing links them 

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-supply/

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You didn’t. Cafe corner hasn’t been in production since 2011.

You may of seen any of these but they weren’t £60.

https://www.lego.com/en-gb/categories/modular-buildings

That's Interesting when you mention about the Lego sets and watches you collect. Is it vintage watches you buy? I keep looking for an (inspired?) collectable/'future cherished item of value', that I could maybe store for potential future return, but as yet have not come up with anything concrete idea wise. 

[Lightscribe]

10 minutes ago, JMD said:

Lightscribe, please do keep your crypto posts coming. I know there is a separate crypto thread but agree when you say it is something everyone should own. I am a late investor into crypto and am still learning about it, but did luckily beat the latest run up. I own bitcoin, crypto miners and even some microstrategy and square(companies owning bitcoin, though not Tesla!!), and aim to make these 5% of my portfolio (compared to my current 20% allocation to gold/silver).                                                                                                                          I see crypto as also being a pivot toward (decomplex play of?) the fintech sector, which along with the demise of banking, etc, will become huge this decade.                                                                                               I do also have a question. Would you know the current number of BTC addresses in existence, as opposed to the number of bitcoins? I ask because I'm interested in knowing approx. how many individuals may own BTC. There are currently 18 million bitcoins but I expect there to be a lot less addresses/individual owners?   

That I would have to do a bit of research on, millions of wallets address most likely exist with zero balance and only about 2% exist with 1BTC or more.

If you really want to think pie in the sky these statistics on Bitcoin.com are interesting, 0.28 is required to be a 1%er. 

https://news.bitcoin.com/this-is-how-much-btc-you-need/

 

[Heart's Ease]

Waved the mighty Panther off this afternoon. Hope I've left something on the table for the next gal or guy. Into an oily.

[Lightscribe]

37 minutes ago, JMD said:

That's Interesting when you mention about the Lego sets and watches you collect. Is it vintage watches you buy? I keep looking for an (inspired?) collectable/'future cherished item of value', that I could maybe store for potential future return, but as yet have not come up with anything concrete idea wise. 

I’ve had a couple of limited edition Rolex (Hulk, BLNR) etc with Tesco club card points as well as other watches accrued along the way. Yes it sounds ridiculous and it’s also not possible anymore.

My previous interests prior to ISAs and investing was manufactured Amex credit card spending, Argos 3-4-2 toys (top selling toys at xmas out of stock) and Tesco point bonuses.

Basically my ex used to work for BA so I had to work out a way getting business class flights, top hotels and statuses for a pittance!  Also in turn I was accruing max Tesco points per quarter (despite not actually doing weekly shopping there) to x3 in Goldsmiths (which only one in London sold Rolex). My only one I’m keeping/have kept is a white gold bezel reasonably uncommon DateJust II now that will be handed to my daughter.

Not that I ever gave a shit about status or any of that pompous bullshit, but more of how far I could stretch the system. I’ve had some fantastic trips away for family and friends, upgraded them on flights and hotel with lounge access etc.

[sancho panza]

By any measure the goldeies sure give some leverage versus the price of gold.Imagine what would happen if oilies wne the same way.

Chart from the Sept 2018 bottom.BVN have managed to actually underperform the underlying which looks a fare achievement.

 

[Lightscribe]

42 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Waved the mighty Panther off this afternoon. Hope I've left something on the table for the next gal or guy. Into an oily.

Unbeliever!  I too sold the panther in the SIPP, needed some free capital in there as I was overweight in the miners. Thanks for the heads up there, what caused that spike today?

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Hancock said:

Never quite understood how burning wood pellets is deemed to be" Green Energy".

Unless they find a way to grow trees faster than they can burn them.

I think the 'settled science' says young trees absorb more co2 than old ones. So cut down the old and replace with the new, simples! Just hope they did proper science experiments to prove this, but as these researchers would be climate scientists, what's the chances they just used their preferred method of graphs and stats? (Or smoke and mirrors; not to mention deleted/correction archived emails, a la UEA!!)

[planit]

8 minutes ago, JMD said:

I think the 'settled science' says young trees absorb more co2 than old ones. So cut down the old and replace with the new, simples! Just hope they did proper science experiments to prove this, but as these researchers would be climate scientists, what's the chances they just used their preferred method of graphs and stats? (Or smoke and mirrors; not to mention deleted/correction archived emails, a la UEA!!)

Without all the bullshit financial magic they apply to wooden 'biofuels', wood produces about the highest kg of CO2 per kWh of any fuel, it is terrible.

They would be better off cutting the large trees down and burying them down the coal mine from where they got the coal to burn in the power station.

 

This whole subject pisses me right off. DB is right when he says the oilies like renewables and see the threat as nuclear.

 

The whole planet could be carbon free by now, France nearly was in the 80's.

 

[Heart's Ease]

16 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Unbeliever!  I too sold the panther in the SIPP, needed some free capital in there as I was overweight in the miners. Thanks for the heads up there, what caused that spike today?

I wish I knew! Bit shocked myself when I logged in. I use Twitter alot for that sort of info/chat. Ticker of GPR not helpful !

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

I wish I knew! Bit shocked myself when I logged in. I use Twitter alot for that sort of info/chat. Ticker of GPR not helpful !

Anyone get them back in March? 300% since.

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Lightscribe, please do keep your crypto posts coming. I know there is a separate crypto thread but agree when you say it is something everyone should own. I am a late investor into crypto and am still learning about it, but did luckily beat the latest run up. I own bitcoin, crypto miners and even some microstrategy and square(companies owning bitcoin, though not Tesla!!), and aim to make these 5% of my portfolio (compared to my current 20% allocation to gold/silver).                                                                                                                          I see crypto as also being a pivot toward (decomplex play of?) the fintech sector, which along with the demise of banking, etc, will become huge this decade.                                                                                               I do also have a question. Would you know the current number of BTC addresses in existence, as opposed to the number of bitcoins? I ask because I'm interested in knowing approx. how many individuals may own BTC. There are currently 18 million bitcoins but I expect there to be a lot less addresses/individual owners?   

Doge coin will out perform bitcoin over the next few month's 

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Cor blimey i thought i'd logged into the BTC thread with all this talk back here...

 

Anyway, only posting to give @DurhamBorn another BOLLOCKING!   ;-)

 

Gotta STOP listening to his YRS Tips!

 

This time his early morning ALDI tip-off!

 

Got up at 6:30am to have breaky and get to ALDI for 8am opening, What a disaster... bloody FREEZING as well here -7  ... AND bugger they didn't even have a YRS section, I even asked/GRILLED the shelf stacker!

 

FIRST time i've got up that early in 5 years ...ALMOST felt I was going to work, heavens forbid!!!

 

AnyHOO...CAN'T GRUMBLE as just checked RMG and yeah YOU guys are correct they are ROCKETING!

I still HAVEN'T sold out...i'm holding until 2029 sell price £9.69 thank you SIR! {DB}

 

 

 

 

SORRY me 'ol mucker but i couldn't resist - this is a CLASSIC Del-boy MOMENT!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Follow my tips instead of your @YRS, and this time next year well be 'Miwyonaires'! :-)))

[DurhamBorn]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker they dont have a reduced section in Aldi,they just add the 50% off stickers on where the items are so you have to wander around the shop and check.Of course check the meat section at the top first as the best items are there.Citi said sell RM at £1.50 they worth 90p  .Now they can just ramp up prices each year and it will flow direct to free cash.

 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Ok, now go and check if Van Beurden actually said overall production peaked. He's not quoted as saying so in the article. I wonder if the journo made the same assumption you did.

Gas use is going to 10x in China over 30 years.Then we have India.Shell need to get those new LNG trains finished in Canada because they are going to be selling much more gas.They all are.Market will be shocked at the price gas goes to this cycle.I think Bp for instance might be on a PE of 1.5 here by the end of the cycle.

[Hancock]

39 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Doge coin will out perform bitcoin over the next few month's 

I just googled dogecoin

So basically a couple of computer geeks made up a program of sorts that they call dogecoin and put a picture of their dog as the logo, then claim these 0s and 1s are a new currency.

And people believe in this?

Now i know the current financial system is far from perfect, but fuck me this is complete and utter bollocks. Its taking the ponzi economy and stupidity to whole new absurd levels

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

a picture of their dog

It's not even as sensible at that 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doge_(meme)

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

It's not even as sensible at that 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doge_(meme)

Whenever nations with marching armies want the plebs to use a digital currency, this is when it'll become common place.

Mr Harps big win is someone else big loss.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Curious about the supply assumptions you use. You might recall I mentioned the pool in Qatar before, it's the largest in the world by far. An ocean of natural gas. They are launching the latest development phase, and going big. Of course this validates what you're saying, they wouldn't be launching this now if they werent seeing the same things you are, I was just wondering if you factor new supply like this into your roadmap?

https://www.oedigital.com/news/485154-largest-lng-project-ever-qatar-petroleum-sanctions-north-field-east-project

 

Yes new supply with a lag and the amount of LNG trains etc.The key is the squeeze thats coming.Countries are going for high growth everywhere.The liquidity building in the system will all end up in energy.Its the biggest bull run in history building i think.The numbers showed what was coming 3 to 4 years ago,but now the road map has the benefit of lots of cross market triggers starting to kick in.The China consumer has around 25% of the western consumer.There is no way China can get that up without gas 10x in use if they are to cut carbon.

Other countries will turn to gas as well.I was leased to see Shell mention natural carbon solutions today,planting forests really.Its going to be a huge area of growth,massive profits.I leave work tomorrow and its an area im going to look much deeper into.

 

[RJT1979]

44 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I just googled dogecoin

So basically a couple of computer geeks made up a program of sorts that they call dogecoin and put a picture of their dog as the logo, then claim these 0s and 1s are a new currency.

And people believe in this?

Now i know the current financial system is far from perfect, but fuck me this is complete and utter bollocks. Its taking the ponzi economy and stupidity to whole new absurd levels

I agree.  But still think will do 300 to 500pc if bitcoin keeps going up

[Bobthebuilder]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I leave work tomorrow

Happy retirement again.

[Lightscribe]

18 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You all haven’t let go and truly embraced the clown world existence yet. Negative interest rates, inflation through the roof, UBI, million pound 2 bed terraces, crypto money with dogs on and food based defi tokens is the new normal for 1000% gains! 

 

Dogecoin is what I was referring to earlier. If you think that is ridiculous, please don’t read up on defi tokens and the likes of sushi, rotten (sushi clone), bao, pancakes and uniswap (unicorn tokens). 

When the likes of Elon Musk tweets a doge meme, he does it with tongue in cheek, knowing it will cause a pump. In some ways I think he’s taking a underhanded swipe at the financial system in general as well as the SEC.

Besides I quite like the dog memes.