Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[wherebee]

Re Pension funds - one of my old Australian employers made the contributions go into a certain scheme.  I haven't touched it for years, but it has grown substantially and just hit 100k.  It climbed 10% in the past 8 months!  A mixture of Aussie and international investments.  No way to chose sectors such as oil, etc.

But - on checking today they have crept the fees up over the years to now be just under 1%, each and every year.  Outrageous.

A self managed super here in Australia costs 2k to set up and 2k a year to run, roughly.  So I need a total pot of over 250k to be saving on that 1% fee; which I should get when I consolidate funds from overseas, etc (thanks Tony Blair for fucking us expats over and making it so hard to do that).

 

Anyway, my point for posting in this thread is that I have just moved the whole 100k into cash.  I do think we are due a BK this year, and by moving the 100k into cash the management fees go down to 0.1% and the returns between 1-1.5%.  Plus, if we see a spike in inflation and interest rates, it could go up by more than the predicted.

Something to think about if you have pensions and expect a BK - you might be able to move it into a lower cost slice under some schemes.

[wherebee]

Read this today in the Australian:

Cost are rising across the mining industry as the renewed boom in the iron ore and gold sectors puts pressure on other sections of the industry, according to South32 boss Graham Kerr. 

Speaking after delivering South32’s half-year results, which included a stronger outlook for the diversified miner’s base metals output, Mr Kerr told The Australian cost escalation in wages — particularly in technical and specialist roles — was again on the rise, putting pressure on costs across the Australian industry

fits in with the inflationary pressures projection

[Castlevania]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

Lawyers in Australia not covered by money laundering laws.  They've been fighting it for years, apparently.... 

The introduction of anti money laundering laws has definitely helped reduce prices in Prime Central London.

[nirvana]

he smelt those sells coming 

[JREWING]

33 minutes ago, nirvana said:

he smelt those sells coming 

Triple witching today.

Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options expire.

Tidy buyins Oil and Miners. Will see what candy we can pick when the Yanks join the party.

GSK sub 2.30, yes please. Like Xmas.

[Noallegiance]

Interesting watch 

 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

Triple witching today.

GSK sub 2.30, yes please. Like Xmas.

ah yes those pesky witches.......what diary do you use for that sort of stuff sir? not mentioned on FF

I thought GSK were Glaxo Smithkline drug dealing barstewards? But they're at £12 odd.....

Cheers!

 

[Lightscribe]

14 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Believe it or not, the ebay seller effectively paid me £120 to take it off his hands. One of those really odd auctions starting at 99p. Now and then I'll have a look at what's ending in antiques on ebay. I managed to bag the ingot (66g) and another 350g of hallmarked silver (mustard pots, knives, pepperette etc) for £84 + £3 postage. 

Don't worry there's plenty of it to go around 

I have been looking at one of these with a side hobby aim of melting down scrap silver into hand poured bars. 

It could be the new Dosbods Ferrari pizza oven if we could all agree on a team logo to stamp our ingots with. 

 

[M S E Refugee]

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I have been looking at one of these with a side hobby aim of melting down scrap silver into hand poured bars. 

It could be the new Dosbods Ferrari pizza oven if we could all agree on a team logo to stamp our ingots with. 

 

They would be difficult to resell without an Assay Certificate.

[nirvana]

computer error

[nirvana]

another computer error....

[King Penda]

15 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Everyone knows that you should only buy off the pound saver menu. Two double cheeseburgers; large fries and can of Coke from the corner shop will set you back around a fiver. That’s reasonable value if you’re out and about and need sustenance.

24 cans of coke can be got for 6 quid just leave a few in your boot for emergencies even more of a saveing 

[JREWING]

25 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I thought GSK were Glaxo Smithkline drug dealing barstewards? But they're at £12 odd.....

 

 

Inghell....

Half asleep, I meant sub 12.30 GSK.

 

[JMD]

32 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I have been looking at one of these with a side hobby aim of melting down scrap silver into hand poured bars. 

It could be the new Dosbods Ferrari pizza oven if we could all agree on a team logo to stamp our ingots with. 

 

As per recent discussions, if Harp's house purchase goes through he might be able to put you in contact with someone who can 'handle the assaying'!!!

But serious question, could you actually sell the bars without silver assay marks? Or would you just look to store it away, until its worth $300/oz, then get it assayed job-lot fashion? 

 

Edit ...oops just seen mse refugee's same question

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, JMD said:

But serious question, could you actually sell the bars without silver assay marks? 

I'm a buyer at discounted prices......

cable hit 1.40........and retraced 20 pips........

[JMD]

On 17/02/2021 at 17:26, Noallegiance said:

More meaty than Twitter:

 

I am a fan of DH. However i note that DH mentions in his new video that he has redone his figures and now forecasts a q2 melt-up with sp500 going to 4,600+++. With the big market correction happening in the subsequent 6-months following said melt-up.                                                                         I use the word 'forecasts' because DH himself comments in video that other financial commentators are now beginning to join his thesis, but that in order to be right, you really need to get the 'timing correct'!! He's 100% correct in saying that about the timing, but as others have noted before - DH is a macro guy so why does he continue to make detailed calls? Especially as he keeps moving his own predictions forward every 3/6 months... so by his own definition, he is also wrong, wrong, wrong, then eventually right? Very frustrating.

[nirvana]

52 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I re read that and realise it's a bit short term trade-ey rather than macro-ey

indeed, WTI crude is still up over 10% on Jan's close.........'polar bear' smelt the dip cos the parabolic rise in Feb was clearly unsustainable.......particularly since it was stuck in a channel for most of Jan 

[Loki]

K+S potash back up by 5%

[leonardratso]

13 minutes ago, Loki said:

K+S potash back up by 5%

might have been worth buying the dip as i did there then, but i dont trust those krauts very much these days, klaus can lie like an american when theres cash at the door.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

 

I noticed that 'our (so called) BBC' begun reporting only yesterday about the Covid panik-demic in terms of good news, declining death rates, etc. I was wondering/waiting for them to do this.

But I nearly fell off my chair last week when the Covid government briefings had Chris Whitty talking about living with the virus/herd immunity and 'acceptable levels of covid deaths' going forward. He even mentioned flu deaths being between 7-30,000/year, for comparison of how to frame the discussion.

The government stats say 120,000 people died 'with covid', which probably equates to at the very most half that number actually dying 'from covid', especialy if factoring in for how many of these mostly very old people would have succumbed alternatively to the flu in 'normal years', instead of corona. I also think that proper shielding of the vulnerable would have bought the numbers down by perhaps another 50%, so maybe to 30,000 deaths.

Ok, i accept those are 'my own' questionable(?) figures, but i still think it interesting that my lowest covid figure overlaps with the highest flu stat figure. But i'll cut to the chase and suggest that the discussion now underway by Whitty+co, and begun last week, is really all about pacifying peoples increasing anger over the closure of the NHS, long waiting lists, increased deaths of all-age groups (though i expect suppression of this information). It is deeply ironic that the NHS has been bought to its knees by government policy meant to 'save the NHS' (Orwellian or what?). At the same time the economy has been almost destroyed. If people begin to cotton on to any of these subjects, they will become very-very angry... so now open the NHS sluice gates, and build some Boris hospitals double quick!!!

Ok this is a Covid related post, but relevant i think because helps examplify the type of casual, draconian, statist government thinking -and actions - we will all need to become accustomed to in future.  

[Bricormortis]

Re above, March 23rd is the one year anniversary of lockdown. They know public support is going to ebb away beyond that date.

[Noallegiance]

58 minutes ago, JMD said:

I am a fan of DH. However i note that DH mentions in his new video that he has redone his figures and now forecasts a q2 melt-up with sp500 going to 4,600+++. With the big market correction happening in the subsequent 6-months following said melt-up.                                                                         I use the word 'forecasts' because DH himself comments in video that other financial commentators are now beginning to join his thesis, but that in order to be right, you really need to get the 'timing correct'!! He's 100% correct in saying that about the timing, but as others have noted before - DH is a macro guy so why does he continue to make detailed calls? Especially as he keeps moving his own predictions forward every 3/6 months... so by his own definition, he is also wrong, wrong, wrong, then eventually right? Very frustrating.

I think that's just part of being a macro strategist. He understands the trajectory and has to give a rough idea of an expected timeframe otherwise any strategy calls have zero use. I guess a combination of a fast-paced world + impatience and the option of shorter term trading means it seems these things take forever to play out.

And then there's the plate-spinning expert interventionists.

As a non-gambler, I'm happy to be months or even years early than risk being 1 second too late.

[JREWING]

30 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Re above, March 23rd is the one year anniversary of lockdown. They know public support is going to ebb away beyond that date.

CURE FOR FLUDEMIC

I think this mess will be all over soon. They've used up all their goodwill promises now.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

We now have a 6% correction on WTI and 5% on Brent. Looking back at previous runs up, 7%-14% seems to be the range of most corrections. So we could already be half way there. I'm seeing some nicely bearish news creeping in to encourage weak hands to take profits like an Iran deal back on, and all the refineries knocked out in the US backing up crude stocks. US data will be a mess for the next three weeks or so, ideal to push people out. A couple more weeks like this will reset the weekly RSI which was giving me sell signals.

This weeks US data was pre-storm. Another big draw in build season, but what most people missed is that implied demand (as measured by products spplied) in the USA is back to normal, looking at a 1 year window. In fact, this week was higher than the corresponding week last year. We have to be careful with this, as there may have been Covid effects creeping into mid Feb last year, and comparing to 2018 would now be better. But it's within the noise. I don't know what they are doing in the US, but they are consuming as much petroleum as they ever did. Diesel is up by almost exactly the amount gasoline and jet fuel is down. When gasoline and jet fuel normalise, will diesel go back down? Maybe a bit, but I bet it won't fully retrace.

And the truth is finally being released (on Biden's watch, naturally), the UK will follow as it always does:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

So I'm hoping for more downside in the oil price in the next few weeks. There'll be a lot of noisy data coming out of the USA till they sort out the storm. But all through last year I said "demand is the big unknown for me"; it seems to be coming back far more quickly than I thought it would.

Edit:

I re read that and realise it's a bit short term trade-ey rather than macro-ey, not really my thing. I guess I feel that there is a shakeout coming, and wanted to offer my thoughts beforehand. Dyodd as ever

Think I'll try laddering in, on the down.

[AlfredTheLittle]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

Think I'll try laddering in, on the down.

Not so sure there will be a down, bp and rdsb are both still lower than 1 month ago, despite the increase in price of oil. Maybe no one yet believes the increase will be sustained