Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Animal Spirits]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

We have been ruled by diktat for the last year, and the majority of people support it. So yes, it's democratic in the sense that the majority happily have given up their freedoms and have accepted draconian intrusions to their daily lives. I think it has shown, quite clearly, that with a few behavioural psychologists and a decent fearmongering campain, the Carney stuff can and will happed. It's terrifying, frankly. I need to find a society where the majority aren't morons who vote me into slavery. Maybe Texas, or Denmark. Any other ideas?

@The Masked Tulip Posted this link on Saturday in the vaccine thread:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/RRr2aeDg50RZ/

[Transistor Man]

On 07/06/2021 at 10:16, Transistor Man said:

Would Sizewell C be cheaper if it was 4* 800 MW? Or 8 * 400 MW?

We don’t know. But the idea of the EPR reactor design is: no, it wouldn’t be. 

Its possible that the size is working against them. It’s a big reactor.

But I think they are really struggling on cost because it’s all new and they haven’t been building them.

 

Just looking at some problems with a Sizewell C type reactor in China on another thread.

I might have been wrong!

Hopefully RR are going to hit the sweet-spot.

 

...EDF acknowledged the difficulties it was having building the EPR design, with its head of production and engineering, Hervé Machenaud, saying EDF had lost its dominant international position in design and construction of nuclear power stations. Machenaud indicated EDF was considering designing two new lower powered reactors, one with output of 1500 MWe and the other 1000 MWe. Machenaud stated there would be a period of reflection on the best way to improve the EPR design to lower its price and incorporate post-Fukushima safety improvements.

[wherebee]

Who thinks we're getting close to a point for a sale of some oilies?  The shootup in recent weeks has been notable.

I'm thinking of maybe selling all my BP as they seen most woke and fucked at the board level.

edit: up 48% inc divvies.

[Bobthebuilder]

37 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Who thinks we're getting close to a point for a sale of some oilies?  The shootup in recent weeks has been notable.

I'm thinking of maybe selling all my BP as they seen most woke and fucked at the board level.

edit: up 48% inc divvies.

I have  a similar feeling about Repsol, up 60% so far, what to do with it?

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's his fund yes, but I think he's put an EFT for the plebs too with the same picks, I haven't sought it out. Congrats on all the green, you've had strong hands throughout.

Is this the Nuttal etf?  Any views on his top 10 holdings CP? Not asking for specific investment advise, rather just a summation of what that mix of stocks represents. They all appear to be Canadian small caps?                                                                                                                              https://www.ninepoint.com/funds/ninepoint-energy-fund/

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/BM90KT3
 

So whats the reckoning on this ETF fund for a hydrogen play?

Got a few names in it that I wanted to add to the portfolio anyway.

TOP 10 CONSTITUENTS (%)

Linde 4.7

Kolon Industries 4.7

Daimler 4.6

Chemours 4.6

Air Products & Chemicals 4.6

Johnson Matthey 4.5

Cummins 4.5

Air Liquide 4.2

Siemens 4.2

Uniper 4.1

https://fundcentres.lgim.com/uk/professional/fund-centre/ETF/Hydrogen-Economy/

https://fundcentres.lgim.com/srp/lit/71rvAp/Fact-sheet_LG-Hydrogen-Economy-UCITS-ETF-Hydrogen-Economy-UCITS-ETF-USD-Acc_30-04-2021_Multi-Audience.pdf

 

Looks good, though unfortunately I couldn't get the full list of stocks to open. Many of the top 10  holdings are on my watch list. I notice its a new etf which is interesting - I'm really begining to think there must be something to DBs idea of hydrogen being the next big thing!?! Legal and General are I think good managers and it's a physical etf which is also good, and so its 0.5% charge is reasonable.

[Sugarlips]

Still the right time to increase silver exposure by the looks of it:

https://goldsilver.com/blog/the-coming-reversal-in-the-silversp-500-ratio-will-be-shocking/

Only at the beginning of the new millennia has this ratio been lower than it is right now.

[spongeh]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Looks good, though unfortunately I couldn't get the full list of stocks to open. Many of the top 10  holdings are on my watch list. I notice its a new etf which is interesting - I'm really begining to think there must be something to DBs idea of hydrogen being the next big thing!?! Legal and General are I think good managers and it's a physical etf which is also good, and so its 0.5% charge is reasonable.

JLR think there may be something in Hydrogen aswell.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/jaguar-land-rover-test-fuel-cell-powertrains-within-year

We can't generate enough electricity, without building a load of new nukes, for millions of cars to be 100% electric. There is no chance the charging infrastructure could be expanded to cope with millions of electric cars either. 

[AWW]

Did the guy in the mustard t-shirt imply that wearing a mask was effectively an anti-racism protest for him? Leaving aside the fact that a protest is only useful if others realise that you're protesting, why does he think that breathing freely is a privelege? Truly eye opening stuff.

[geordie_lurch]

I think the following video posted by @Bus Stop Boxer in another thread touches on so many things a lot of the people in this thread are trying to prepare against but sadly might be missing at the much larger macro picture i.e. CBDCs and Blackrock and others buying masses of real estate

 

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Can anyone explain to me why 10 year breakeven inflation rates have been dropping for the last month?!

Definition:

I guess it means that market participants currently expect inflation to have peaked, or is transitory? Strange, with the CPI numbers coming in the way they are, but markets are not rational I suppose. What could make them change their views...I suppose Powell's comments at FOMC.

 

They are going to get a classic head fake here.Inflation will move up to a new,higher base first,then it will stop increasing much for a window,a window that looks permanent,then it will enter a cycle long increase.The short end isnt pricing inflation its just being used to park liquidity.The Fed is fighting to keep it down as well to force money into investment instead as one policy aim.Key point is that when the 10 year is way below inflation government is getting more in tax than the debt is costing at some point and thats exactly what the Fed is trying to set in place.To remove or actually inject less liquidity the Fed needs the government to see receipts growing faster than spending so they stay solvent,at least in a Fiat system.

As people on the oilies il be holding all mine,the only one il sell is Shell,but not without another 15%+ on them

[DoINeedOne]

12 hours ago, Animal Spirits said:

@The Masked Tulip Posted this link on Saturday in the vaccine thread:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/RRr2aeDg50RZ/

Unfortunately human behaviour can be crazy even in advertising it shocks me how easy it can be to change or encourage a certain behaviour from the customer 

 

As for that video I suspect mostly it’s herd mentality people don’t like attention attracted to them in the wrong way so try to blend in with the rest

 

My mum came on a dog walk with me few weeks back after being vaccinated she had a mask on, I asked her why she had a mask on whilst outside walking 

 

She replied similar just so used to it now but took it off and popped in a few days ago without a mask so hopefully she’s started to take note 

 

 

 

[Transistor Man]

10 hours ago, JMD said:

Is this the Nuttal etf?  Any views on his top 10 holdings CP? Not asking for specific investment advise, rather just a summation of what that mix of stocks represents. They all appear to be Canadian small caps?                                                                                                                              https://www.ninepoint.com/funds/ninepoint-energy-fund/

I’ve followed him for a while, and that’s his thing. Canadian small/ mid caps.

[nirvana]

19 hours ago, nirvana said:

hot tip for you guys 

https://www.mosmanoilandgas.com/announcements/£15m-placing-completed-helium-hydrogen-and-hydrocarbon-exploration-ep-145-and-update

up 15% today! YOU snooze and you LOOZE!!! 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are going to get a classic head fake here.Inflation will move up to a new,higher base first,then it will stop increasing much for a window,a window that looks permanent,then it will enter a cycle long increase.The short end isnt pricing inflation its just being used to park liquidity.The Fed is fighting to keep it down as well to force money into investment instead as one policy aim.Key point is that when the 10 year is way below inflation government is getting more in tax than the debt is costing at some point and thats exactly what the Fed is trying to set in place.To remove or actually inject less liquidity the Fed needs the government to see receipts growing faster than spending so they stay solvent,at least in a Fiat system.

As people on the oilies il be holding all mine,the only one il sell is Shell,but not without another 15%+ on them

FYI, the Jeff Goldblum of economics called the swift recovery well before most, and is now saying we've peaked (for now). China clamping down on soaring commodities (look at copper), lumber still heading down, looks like we're entering the pull back phase where everything already seems to be priced in. I'll be buying the dip.

And on yields:

 

[Harley]

13 hours ago, wherebee said:

Who thinks we're getting close to a point for a sale of some oilies?  The shootup in recent weeks has been notable.

I'm thinking of maybe selling all my BP as they seen most woke and fucked at the board level.

edit: up 48% inc divvies.

No change in opinion from my last post.  Momentum has run ahead of average prices so one may give.  A lot at resistance too so could pop for one last run or fail.  Bought a Russki today that fell into my sights.  A bit iffy but still little out there atm.

 

[planit]

13 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

FYI, the Jeff Goldblum of economics called the swift recovery well before most, and is now saying we've peaked (for now). China clamping down on soaring commodities (look at copper), lumber still heading down, looks like we're entering the pull back phase where everything already seems to be priced in. I'll be buying the dip.

 

This could fit in with a worry on the Delta variant.

UK cases are now higher than a lot of other countries and growing exponentially.

US now has 10% of cases as Delta variant and if you extrapolate forwards they could be like the UK in a few weeks. I am not completely sure but I think the vaccine uptake is lower in the US than here so it might affect them more.

 

I just now see a new risk that if this variant starts popping up as a problem in multiple countries including US and China there could be a pull back in markets everywhere. The quarantine procedures between countries have slowed down the progression so the markets have underestimated the risk (and it hasn't completely stopped the Delta variant moving countries)

 

Regarding the selling of oil shares earlier up thread, they are the main stocks I want to hold through the entire cycle so I won't be selling permanently as I want them to quadruple. I will trade in and out of some of my holding to not get too bored.

I suppose the question is: 

Over the next 8 years what shares will you hold? 

If you believe in a long cycle then the movements will be longer and larger. If you are selling out after a year or two then you will need to move into something else or wait for a crash. Just have a plan that looks past your next trade.

 

Lumber drop shows that supply can now come back on line to address demand. This should happen to motor vehicles, chips etc resulting in inflation dropping back.

 Oil price seems to be pricing in return to normal now which must be risky, there is no supply shortage so could have peaked for a while. It might be next year now before flying is back to normal.

 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

looks like we're entering the pull back phase where everything already seems to be priced in. I'll be buying the dip.

I'm seeing a possible wobble on BHP and co on the monthlies.  Maybe just follow through from the recent topping or more fundamental.  Fully allocated on most but have room to bite one more stock and hopefully others will come into view.  DYOR.  Do I sell thirds or hold?  The usual tough question.  

[JMD]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Unfortunately human behaviour can be crazy even in advertising it shocks me how easy it can be to change or encourage a certain behaviour from the customer 

Edward Bernays... 'the father of public relations' and advertising (and nephew of Sigmund Freud). However, back in the 1930's companies didn't have PR depts, they called them 'propaganda' depts. How's that for a gotcha moment! 

I agree with you that it is shockingly easy to manipulate people. But the salient point for me is how ill educated people are even after (because of?!) attending 12/15 years of state school/college.     

To be clear, i don't personally think bad-education or manipulative-advertising are conspiracies, i tend not to go in for conspiracies. Its more i think to do with top-heavy/convoluted institutional/corporate decay... yep, a reboot is needed to 'reset'(trigger word to some!) things, controversial maybe, but really that's another topic.    

But in terms of 'manipulation', my opening paragraph could be interpreted as promoting conspiracies. However, as they say, perception and context are everything. So for example, the following short video puts a different slant on Bernays techniques which were/still are so simple to understand, society just needs to be forewarned/educated i think.  

(actually quiet funny video for different reasons... warning, it was a different world back then - i.e. mention of 'ecstatic dancers' (racist!?), and where the simple mention of Proctor&Gamble gets a cheer from the audience!)     

 

 

[Harley]

Funny how most, even me to an extent, at the start of this looked at the masked asians and thought never us.  And now we can't live without them.  More of that to come, to an area of financial interest!  It's all there, in plain view.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks DB. I thought gold and gold miners were beginning to smell something, maybe it's this headfake.

A mixed bag atm.  I've been buying the good div payers despite no very clear technical picture but good enough and plenty of vol(atility).  Like *** (DYOR, not a rec, etc) gapping down 4.52% today having risen 14% last month.  I'm probably a bit early but these companies with their cash flows, divs, and balance sheets are hard to ignore.

[Harley]

Summer doldrums?  The elites still able to get away, etc with the PM ensuring access to their favourites (Cheltenham last year, Wimbledon thus, etc)?

[JMD]

28 minutes ago, planit said:

This could fit in with a worry on the Delta variant.

UK cases are now higher than a lot of other countries and growing exponentially.

US now has 10% of cases as Delta variant and if you extrapolate forwards they could be like the UK in a few weeks. I am not completely sure but I think the vaccine uptake is lower in the US than here so it might affect them more.

I just now see a new risk that if this variant starts popping up as a problem in multiple countries including US and China there could be a pull back in markets everywhere. The quarantine procedures between countries have slowed down the progression so the markets have underestimated the risk (and it hasn't completely stopped the Delta variant moving countries)

I think the various virus variants may become background noise...

The (elephant in the room) bat in the lab!! for me is if/when the US get hold of evidence that Covid was a manufactured virus, and who knows - maybe even if the virus was released on purpose!!

It seems to me this whole story is now beginning to be ramped by US govt and even the MSM. Last week i heard a radio program talking about the erstwhile virus conspiracy story as though it had now turned (mutated) from conspiracy into a real and deep suspicion of the origins of the virus and the Chinese government. GBNews (not msm) had a Chinese virologist dissident now living in the US, she was reinforcing the fact that the corona virus cannot be found anywhere in nature, only in the lab. In fact, the structure of the virus, its cleavage(?), are evidence of gene manipulation techniques. Therefore it was 'man made'. Where does this story go next i wonder?   

 

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

I think the various virus variants may become background noise...

The (elephant in the room) bat in the lab!! for me is if/when the US get hold of evidence that Covid was a manufactured virus, and who knows - maybe even if the virus was released on purpose!!

Pretty crappy virus to release, in that it doesn't kill anyone who wasn't on deaths door anyway.

[TNS]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

Summer doldrums?  The elites still able to get away, etc with the PM ensuring access to their favourites (Cheltenham last year, Wimbledon thus, etc)?

Royal Ascot going ahead i see too!