Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

A very nice floor v upside combo.  Shame it's currently madness for me to buy an annuity to replicate this with my DC money!

Yep, the young workforce will never get the benefit of a DB pension and will instead have to pay the `going rate` if they want the same level of financial security :-(

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Noticed William Hill have done one as well for 20% of equity.Like you say,small shareholders not invited,only a book build.So they dilute your holdings at a discounted price and cant even take part.On National Express it worked out as they paid 2.30p and the shares hit 2.00p a week or so later,but it does stink.As usually the regulators asleep at the wheel.

Less so in these cases and more so with Hertz, do you guys think that these are only intentional short term measures to draw the mug retail punters in so that the big institutional bond investors can exit with maximum capital before it finally folds?

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

I've done the DD and must sign the paperwork to take my 25% cash lump sum.  A real tough one.  Some protection leaving it there but then some risk from HMG.  The real block is what to do with it, or rather action my thoughts.  Nice if I could take bites but it's a one shot deal and it's the rumoured impending Budget that's the burning platform.

I can understand why you are doing this; to start drawing just in case HMG move the goalposts, but the problem is once you start drawing a pension you are then restricted to how much you put in from that point forward whether you are still working or decide to come out of retirement....I think its £3-4k max per year...I have similar concerns but (like to) think that it is a policy change that would have a period of prior warning rather than applied immediately.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Less so in these cases and more so with Hertz, do you guys think that these are only intentional short term measures to draw the mug retail punters in so that the big institutional bond investors can exit with maximum capital before it finally folds?

Quite likely, in which case we've reached a new dumb in the retail investor.  But then it's free taxpayer cash so easy come....!

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I can understand why you are doing this; to start drawing just in case HMG move the goalposts, but the problem is once you start drawing a pension you are then restricted to how much you put in from that point forward whether you are still working or decide to come out of retirement....I think its £3-4k max per year...I have similar concerns but (like to) think that it is a policy change that would have a period of prior warning rather than applied immediately.

I need to triple check this but I think only if you drawdown an income (i.e. start paying tax) and not if you just take the 25%.   And the critical bit - for now!  Plus my income is small and ISAs, CGT (accumulation funds), etc are still available.

PS:  Ta, I think you've just helped me make up my mind!

[jamtomorrow]

49 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The cheapest way to buy Physical Silver is to go down to your local auction and buy Sterling Silver spoons,forks and trays for as close to spot as possible.

Would *love* to see that in action, rolling up at the auction with a set of scales and a clipboard!! Or does everyone do that already?

[Harley]

36 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Yep, the young workforce.....

...and the not so young!  That's a myth put out by those victim types seeking to cause division.  I'm nearing retirement and like most of my friends (ex PS) it's all DC.  I've not seen the stats (who has but I did ask a HR pension bod!) but DBs seem more an early to possibly mid boomer thing and/or certain large finsec, oil, etc blue chip type companies.  Another "narrative"?

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, jamtomorrow said:

Would *love* to see that in action, rolling up at the auction with a set of scales and a clipboard!! Or does everyone do that already?

Auctions usually provide approximate weights of the Silver in the catalogue and you often see the Gold buyers with set of electronic scales and a note pad.

[jamtomorrow]

11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I 100% agree DB, I just dont think it's worth celebrating.

I mostly buy into what you say now ( though everyone should have waited for the crash before buying ) and I can see it playing out how you say barring the fact the squealing establishment will do whatever they can to avoid it so I would like to ask everyone what they think of my position ( no trolls please, this is a serious matter and I can't help the fact you piled into BTL )

I've knocked up a pie chart of all my families financial holdings, this was as of last year and I hold more shares now and the cash just keeps going up ( did anyone explain compound interest to the BTLsters ? )

Some of this is tied up going to my children and it ignores a sizable inheritance we might collect one day but I'd rather that wasn't for a couple of decades at least so have discounted that.

The big green wedge is cash though you could argue some of the NS&I bonds ( i only found out recently that they roll them over when they expire which is handy ) /Premium bonds are cash too, so maybe 60% cash all told.  I was lucky to be able to collect on the NS and I index linked certs when they were available which I think is a life saver for me.

The big green wedges is not a small amount of cash and needs to go somewhere at some point fairly soon, mostly likely into a 3 houses in 3 different countries, that's the plan at least.  I've opened a SIPP this year and am trying to time moving £40K into that. I'll most likely do that for the next 4 years.  I've avoided paying much into pensions over the years as a) It's a ponzi and b) I was never going to get to collect on that ponzi and c) it's a ponzi

Any comments ?

What would you change ?

Would you do anything differently right now ?

This is for real, no bullshitting.  Genuinely concerned, like most of us here, for the future, especially that of out families.

Get thee some crypto.

Assuming DB's roadmap comes to pass and we enter systemic collapse in 10 years, *now* is the time to think about insurance.

I'm thinking in terms of: what replaces fiat when the Really Big Kahuna hits? A new global fiat, with global governance? Unlikely, looks like we're entering a period of sustained deglobalisation, and I doubt the international community will be capable of the level of cooperation required to pull it off. Besides, the credibility of the CB model will have taken a death blow by then.

PMs? Quite possible - you've got some, good.

Crypto? Possibly. A lot could go wrong for BTC between now and then. What if it turns out China controls more than 50% of hash rate in some mad Wizard of Oz moment? What if the usual suspects figure out how to manipulate spot BTC prices via derivatives?

*If* BTC is still standing after those trials, it's a strong candidate to have a central role in the post RBK system, IMO as a settlement layer i.e. reserve bank function - transaction throughput isn't sufficient for everyone to use it to pay for a tank of hydrogen on their flying car.

DYOR, but me personally I'm hodling approx 10% in BTC as a not-so-small bet at long odds for a big stake in what comes after.

[jamtomorrow]

14 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Auctions usually provide approximate weights of the Silver in the catalogue and you often see the Gold buyers with set of electronic scales and a note pad.

Consider me educated!!!

[MrXxxx]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

...and the not so young!  That's a myth put out by those victim types seeking to cause division.  I'm nearing retirement and like most of my friends (ex PS) it's all DC.  I've not seen the stats (who has but I did ask a HR pension bod!) but DBs seem more an early to possibly mid boomer thing and/or certain large finsec, oil, etc blue chip type companies.  Another "narrative"?

....makes me realize even more how fortunate I am then!

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

....makes me realize even more how fortunate I am then!

See, this is the "narrative" which does my head in!  You are deemed "fortunate", "lucky", or "privileged" rather than we are deemed "unfortunate" (or more accurately "swindled" or "screwed") in having a (DB based!) Administrative Cartel which has held rates so low (for their own ends) we cannot buy an similar performing annuity.  DB types get slated while the true villains walk off scott free.  It's almost like they employ a load of bots (or willing fools) to promulgate this narrative to protect themselves.  At least such behaviour is becoming more obvious now what with CV, BLM, etc (except the fact that it becoming more obvious could be a worrying sign of their confidence).  When the size of a pie shrinks, those in it moronically start fighting over the scraps rather than challenge the baker as to why!

And chasing off the manipulative single issue victim hood identity politics a bit further, good on you for getting a DB scheme.  You may or not be better off than me but life is a kaleidoscope of fortune and I'm undoubtedly much more handsome than you!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Count that sounds risky, particularly with the amount of cash to outlay to enable buying 3 houses, as I assume there would be no/little mortgage possible for purchases abroad? But houses in which countries are you planning? After all i'd think that there is big risk of foreign governments turning against non-dom assets, particularly property, which could only be a vote winner. So new taxes, etc. Especially with nationalist governments and poupulist sentiment on the rise.

There would be no mortgages required, I have much cash to lose hence why I am a worried man. I have thought about your points but and it's a fair point to think about.  We were thinking Italy/Spain and Ireland.  After this month I dont plan to live in the UK again.  We did think about a nice villa in Turkey at one point, even went to the bother of doing re reccy, they are giving them away and some of them are fantastic, but it was too risky for my liking.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

29 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Get thee some crypto.

Assuming DB's roadmap comes to pass and we enter systemic collapse in 10 years, *now* is the time to think about insurance.

I'm thinking in terms of: what replaces fiat when the Really Big Kahuna hits? A new global fiat, with global governance? Unlikely, looks like we're entering a period of sustained deglobalisation, and I doubt the international community will be capable of the level of cooperation required to pull it off. Besides, the credibility of the CB model will have taken a death blow by then.

PMs? Quite possible - you've got some, good.

Crypto? Possibly. A lot could go wrong for BTC between now and then. What if it turns out China controls more than 50% of hash rate in some mad Wizard of Oz moment? What if the usual suspects figure out how to manipulate spot BTC prices via derivatives?

*If* BTC is still standing after those trials, it's a strong candidate to have a central role in the post RBK system, IMO as a settlement layer i.e. reserve bank function - transaction throughput isn't sufficient for everyone to use it to pay for a tank of hydrogen on their flying car.

DYOR, but me personally I'm hodling approx 10% in BTC as a not-so-small bet at long odds for a big stake in what comes after.

I need to buy more PMs, I know that, I'll look at the VAT free silver today for sure.

I might have another look at crypto again but I am not convinced by them, buy them at the wrong time and you lose a fortune but a small holding wouldn't hurt.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

12 hours ago, Loki said:

Go to coininvest.com for VAT free silver Britannias, whether Brexit will affect it or not I don't know.

I just had a look, their price for silver brits is

from £20.64 

Bullion by post is:

from £17.60

For 100 coins it's approx 2150 versus 2100  including delivery.

Am I missing something ?

[jamtomorrow]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I just had a look, their price for silver brits is

from £20.64 

Bullion by post is:

from £17.60

For 100 coins it's approx 2150 versus 2100  including delivery.

Am I missing something ?

Is that BPP price "at the checkout"? IIRC when I checked last time, VAT on "for delivery" orders magically appeared at the last minute

[Sasquatch]

 

21 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I just had a look, their price for silver brits is

from £20.64 

Bullion by post is:

from £17.60

For 100 coins it's approx 2150 versus 2100  including delivery.

Am I missing something ?

That's the vaulted price, not for delivery. You then have vaulting fees on top. 

[Fully Detached]

Has somebody here just bought them all, the only ones I can see are the 2020 britannias at >£20?

[jamtomorrow]

14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I might have another look at crypto again but I am not convinced by them, buy them at the wrong time and you lose a fortune but a small holding wouldn't hurt.

Averaging in should smooth off some of the volatility - I bought an extra 5% Feb->Apr this year using weekly purchases. Average achieved was £6K on a range of £4.6K to £7.5K

Way I think about crypto: there will only ever be 20 million or so bitcoins mined, so with say 2 billion housholds in the world your "rightful share" is 0.01BTC. In other words, bag yourself 1BTC now and the payoff could be to put your household in 100x better position than average (*if* BTC pans out - *if*).

Using land as an analogy - 60 million acres in the UK, 20 million households. How does 300 acres sound?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

The cheapest way to buy Physical Silver is to go down to your local auction and buy Sterling Silver spoons,forks and trays for as close to spot as possible.

Bugger, I've been going to the wrong Spoons!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

34 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

 

That's the vaulted price, not for delivery. You then have vaulting fees on top. 

Those are both delivery prices if I'm not mistaken.

I'm not so keen on the someone else pretending to hold you PMs thing

[TheCountOfNowhere]

54 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Is that BPP price "at the checkout"? IIRC when I checked last time, VAT on "for delivery" orders magically appeared at the last minute

A picture/1000 words

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

26 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Using land as an analogy - 60 million acres in the UK, 20 million households. How does 300 acres sound?

I'd need a tractor, ohh ar, ohh ar.

https://youtu.be/tb63PdPweDc

 

[Harley]

46 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

That's the vaulted price, not for delivery. You then have vaulting fees on top. 

I believe vaulted is VAT free until you remit them to the UK (not sure what you then pay the VAT on, the initial or current value) for that Irish supplier.  IMO vaulted is a bit better than an ETF but not the same as a personal holding, but then I would not like too large a physical holding and a UK safety deposit box is not as good as it was.  Vaulted also facilitates overseas storage FWIW.  Vault fees on small holdings seems a pain.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I just had a look, their price for silver brits is

from £20.64 

Bullion by post is:

from £17.60

For 100 coins it's approx 2150 versus 2100  including delivery.

Am I missing something ?

Yes  the fact that is not a delivered price (VAT FREE for Storage - 1oz Silver Britannia Coin) and £17.60 is for 1000+ coins

Your silver will be vaulted on a dynamically allocated basis meaning your investment will always be legally yours, fully insured and professionally vaulted, but unlike our allocated storage your bullion is not individually packaged whilst in storage.

This is the link you want
 

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/silver-coins/britannia-silver-ounce/1oz-silver-britannia-best-value/
https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/britannia/1-oz-britannia-silver-coin-2020/

I'd contact CI and see what price they can do for 100+ coins.  I buy 25 at a time so the scale works for me