Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

This is where I wonder if a transfer out of a DB pension is such a good idea..ok the transfer values can be good, and it looks as though this guy didn't diversify, but the DB acts like an insurance/annuity giving you a safe-ish guaranteed income You can then play the stock market knowing that whatever happens you have a safety net...or perhaps it just reflects my personality?!

A very nice floor v upside combo.  Shame it's currently madness for me to buy an annuity to replicate this with my DC money!

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Harley said:

The current Hertz stock price madness, especially given the new stock issue approved by the judge, makes me wonder if this a good way for bond holders to cash out at 100 cents on the dollar.

Your post also reminded me of Keiser's warning about the privatisation of the stock market - who says new dilutive stock issues need to go to all stock holders?  Happened already, justified on the grounds of expediency.

Impoverishment and serfdom await?

Noticed William Hill have done one as well for 20% of equity.Like you say,small shareholders not invited,only a book build.So they dilute your holdings at a discounted price and cant even take part.On National Express it worked out as they paid 2.30p and the shares hit 2.00p a week or so later,but it does stink.As usually the regulators asleep at the wheel.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

Bribed the guards with silver and smuggled a ride to the Cayman's...

Ah, as George Gammon said, he knew the difference between price and value, as did that dentist's family fleeing Vietnam after the Americans left!

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Noticed William Hill have done one as well for 20% of equity.

Oh bugger!  Time for a think.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, The Idiocrat said:

This is exactly the conclusion I came to. The transfer value was great, but if I got it wrong I'd be in deep shit. And I don't trust politians/CBs not to come up with some cuntish scheme that prevents what should happen happening. So best hedge and leave the pension there.

I've done the DD and must sign the paperwork to take my 25% cash lump sum.  A real tough one.  Some protection leaving it there but then some risk from HMG.  The real block is what to do with it, or rather action my thoughts.  Nice if I could take bites but it's a one shot deal and it's the rumoured impending Budget that's the burning platform.

[The Idiocrat]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

I've done the DD and must sign the paperwork to take my 25% cash lump sum.  A real tough one.  Some protection leaving it there but then some risk from HMG.  The real block is what to do with it, or rather action my thoughts.  Nice if I could take bites but it's a one shot deal and it's the impending Budget that's the worry.

Yes, know what you mean. Need a crystal ball. I'm going to have that problem next year. Good luck! 

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

I'm going to have that problem next year. Good luck! 

Or not?

Ta!

[Popuplights]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

bought Shell and BP at £23

I have some RDSB I paid 23 for, but have got the average down to 14.80. Not brilliant, but I can live with it. Still underwater though, my worst holding by far. 

[Hardhat]

2 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

I have some RDSB I paid 23 for, but have got the average down to 14.80. Not brilliant, but I can live with it. Still underwater though, my worst holding by far. 

I feel your pain. Haven't seen any upside since March, did buy a lot cheap though and got my average right down 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Oh bugger!  Time for a think.

Yep, another blip to add to my own ever expanding risk radar (actually risk/reward is something I am actively trying to address in my own portfolio). Posted recently about how the number of ipo's coming to market have been falling for last 20 years, with the number going private now exceeding new stock market entrants.                                                                                                             Such crazy times. I believe that the total market cap of all stocks across all US indexes is 20T dollars, which is coincidentally the amount that DB predicts US government will end up printing. Maybe the US should just be honest about the futility of their fudiciary fortitude and be done with it and just buy everything (wait for the next dip of course). ...So anyhow, are these matching 20T figures just a 'coincidence'? I think we should be told!

[JMD]

4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I 100% agree DB, I just dont think it's worth celebrating.

I mostly buy into what you say now ( though everyone should have waited for the crash before buying ) and I can see it playing out how you say barring the fact the squealing establishment will do whatever they can to avoid it so I would like to ask everyone what they think of my position ( no trolls please, this is a serious matter and I can't help the fact you piled into BTL )

I've knocked up a pie chart of all my families financial holdings, this was as of last year and I hold more shares now and the cash just keeps going up ( did anyone explain compound interest to the BTLsters ? )

Some of this is tied up going to my children and it ignores a sizable inheritance we might collect one day but I'd rather that wasn't for a couple of decades at least so have discounted that.

The big green wedge is cash though you could argue some of the NS&I bonds ( i only found out recently that they roll them over when they expire which is handy ) /Premium bonds are cash too, so maybe 60% cash all told.  I was lucky to be able to collect on the NS and I index linked certs when they were available which I think is a life saver for me.

The big green wedges is not a small amount of cash and needs to go somewhere at some point fairly soon, mostly likely into a 3 houses in 3 different countries, that's the plan at least.  I've opened a SIPP this year and am trying to time moving £40K into that. I'll most likely do that for the next 4 years.  I've avoided paying much into pensions over the years as a) It's a ponzi and b) I was never going to get to collect on that ponzi and c) it's a ponzi

Any comments ?

What would you change ?

Would you do anything differently right now ?

This is for real, no bullshitting.  Genuinely concerned, like most of us here, for the future, especially that of out families.

Count that sounds risky, particularly with the amount of cash to outlay to enable buying 3 houses, as I assume there would be no/little mortgage possible for purchases abroad? But houses in which countries are you planning? After all i'd think that there is big risk of foreign governments turning against non-dom assets, particularly property, which could only be a vote winner. So new taxes, etc. Especially with nationalist governments and poupulist sentiment on the rise.

[Inigo]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

Go to coininvest.com for VAT free silver Britannias, whether Brexit will affect it or not I don't know.

They may well be VAT free, but as far as I can tell, they just bump up their retail price to match other vendor's VAT included price.  End result for the purchaser appears to be the same.

[M S E Refugee]

5 hours ago, Inigo said:

They may well be VAT free, but as far as I can tell, they just bump up their retail price to match other vendor's VAT included price.  End result for the purchaser appears to be the same.

The cheapest way to buy Physical Silver is to go down to your local auction and buy Sterling Silver spoons,forks and trays for as close to spot as possible.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

And bargains, where is the man?

Well all the indices have been rising so obviously he's not been buying! :-)

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

A very nice floor v upside combo.  Shame it's currently madness for me to buy an annuity to replicate this with my DC money!

Yep, the young workforce will never get the benefit of a DB pension and will instead have to pay the `going rate` if they want the same level of financial security :-(

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Noticed William Hill have done one as well for 20% of equity.Like you say,small shareholders not invited,only a book build.So they dilute your holdings at a discounted price and cant even take part.On National Express it worked out as they paid 2.30p and the shares hit 2.00p a week or so later,but it does stink.As usually the regulators asleep at the wheel.

Less so in these cases and more so with Hertz, do you guys think that these are only intentional short term measures to draw the mug retail punters in so that the big institutional bond investors can exit with maximum capital before it finally folds?

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

I've done the DD and must sign the paperwork to take my 25% cash lump sum.  A real tough one.  Some protection leaving it there but then some risk from HMG.  The real block is what to do with it, or rather action my thoughts.  Nice if I could take bites but it's a one shot deal and it's the rumoured impending Budget that's the burning platform.

I can understand why you are doing this; to start drawing just in case HMG move the goalposts, but the problem is once you start drawing a pension you are then restricted to how much you put in from that point forward whether you are still working or decide to come out of retirement....I think its £3-4k max per year...I have similar concerns but (like to) think that it is a policy change that would have a period of prior warning rather than applied immediately.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Less so in these cases and more so with Hertz, do you guys think that these are only intentional short term measures to draw the mug retail punters in so that the big institutional bond investors can exit with maximum capital before it finally folds?

Quite likely, in which case we've reached a new dumb in the retail investor.  But then it's free taxpayer cash so easy come....!

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I can understand why you are doing this; to start drawing just in case HMG move the goalposts, but the problem is once you start drawing a pension you are then restricted to how much you put in from that point forward whether you are still working or decide to come out of retirement....I think its £3-4k max per year...I have similar concerns but (like to) think that it is a policy change that would have a period of prior warning rather than applied immediately.

I need to triple check this but I think only if you drawdown an income (i.e. start paying tax) and not if you just take the 25%.   And the critical bit - for now!  Plus my income is small and ISAs, CGT (accumulation funds), etc are still available.

PS:  Ta, I think you've just helped me make up my mind!

[jamtomorrow]

49 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The cheapest way to buy Physical Silver is to go down to your local auction and buy Sterling Silver spoons,forks and trays for as close to spot as possible.

Would *love* to see that in action, rolling up at the auction with a set of scales and a clipboard!! Or does everyone do that already?

[Harley]

36 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Yep, the young workforce.....

...and the not so young!  That's a myth put out by those victim types seeking to cause division.  I'm nearing retirement and like most of my friends (ex PS) it's all DC.  I've not seen the stats (who has but I did ask a HR pension bod!) but DBs seem more an early to possibly mid boomer thing and/or certain large finsec, oil, etc blue chip type companies.  Another "narrative"?

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, jamtomorrow said:

Would *love* to see that in action, rolling up at the auction with a set of scales and a clipboard!! Or does everyone do that already?

Auctions usually provide approximate weights of the Silver in the catalogue and you often see the Gold buyers with set of electronic scales and a note pad.

[jamtomorrow]

11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I 100% agree DB, I just dont think it's worth celebrating.

I mostly buy into what you say now ( though everyone should have waited for the crash before buying ) and I can see it playing out how you say barring the fact the squealing establishment will do whatever they can to avoid it so I would like to ask everyone what they think of my position ( no trolls please, this is a serious matter and I can't help the fact you piled into BTL )

I've knocked up a pie chart of all my families financial holdings, this was as of last year and I hold more shares now and the cash just keeps going up ( did anyone explain compound interest to the BTLsters ? )

Some of this is tied up going to my children and it ignores a sizable inheritance we might collect one day but I'd rather that wasn't for a couple of decades at least so have discounted that.

The big green wedge is cash though you could argue some of the NS&I bonds ( i only found out recently that they roll them over when they expire which is handy ) /Premium bonds are cash too, so maybe 60% cash all told.  I was lucky to be able to collect on the NS and I index linked certs when they were available which I think is a life saver for me.

The big green wedges is not a small amount of cash and needs to go somewhere at some point fairly soon, mostly likely into a 3 houses in 3 different countries, that's the plan at least.  I've opened a SIPP this year and am trying to time moving £40K into that. I'll most likely do that for the next 4 years.  I've avoided paying much into pensions over the years as a) It's a ponzi and b) I was never going to get to collect on that ponzi and c) it's a ponzi

Any comments ?

What would you change ?

Would you do anything differently right now ?

This is for real, no bullshitting.  Genuinely concerned, like most of us here, for the future, especially that of out families.

Get thee some crypto.

Assuming DB's roadmap comes to pass and we enter systemic collapse in 10 years, *now* is the time to think about insurance.

I'm thinking in terms of: what replaces fiat when the Really Big Kahuna hits? A new global fiat, with global governance? Unlikely, looks like we're entering a period of sustained deglobalisation, and I doubt the international community will be capable of the level of cooperation required to pull it off. Besides, the credibility of the CB model will have taken a death blow by then.

PMs? Quite possible - you've got some, good.

Crypto? Possibly. A lot could go wrong for BTC between now and then. What if it turns out China controls more than 50% of hash rate in some mad Wizard of Oz moment? What if the usual suspects figure out how to manipulate spot BTC prices via derivatives?

*If* BTC is still standing after those trials, it's a strong candidate to have a central role in the post RBK system, IMO as a settlement layer i.e. reserve bank function - transaction throughput isn't sufficient for everyone to use it to pay for a tank of hydrogen on their flying car.

DYOR, but me personally I'm hodling approx 10% in BTC as a not-so-small bet at long odds for a big stake in what comes after.

[jamtomorrow]

14 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Auctions usually provide approximate weights of the Silver in the catalogue and you often see the Gold buyers with set of electronic scales and a note pad.

Consider me educated!!!

[MrXxxx]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

...and the not so young!  That's a myth put out by those victim types seeking to cause division.  I'm nearing retirement and like most of my friends (ex PS) it's all DC.  I've not seen the stats (who has but I did ask a HR pension bod!) but DBs seem more an early to possibly mid boomer thing and/or certain large finsec, oil, etc blue chip type companies.  Another "narrative"?

....makes me realize even more how fortunate I am then!