Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv several routes on the road map for amounts.UK i think we get £600 to £800 billion from the start of March,so maybe half way.Fed is probably 1/3 to 1/2 through now.They might add the odd bit to monetize for governments if rates creep up.Printing will mostly be over by xmas,or maybe late spring next year.Inflation will appear around the same time.I dont expect high inflation for around four to six years,its later in the cycle it really gets going.

In simple terms the Fed prints until the dollar hits 90 and it might follow through down to 85.

WHy Fed print to 90?Sorry if I sound naieve.Is that because fed can print to 90 without inflation,is it because they'll want it down there to make USD competitve?

 

37 minutes ago, Loki said:

This seems like a vid everyone should watch.  I wonder if the $1.6t government "war chest" is what will be used AFTER the possible September crash we have spoken about on here.  Secure another term for Trump, and kick the next cycle off.  He makes it very clear that government QE goes directly into the economy.

 

 

Thanks for posting Loki,Traditonally,Stock Markets rarely crash in eleciton years.

Don't know if it will hold for this year but if Trump wants re election then allowing the solvency phase to begin is a nono.

Separate thread on the betting but I'll look forward to watching this tmrw night...

 

 

ECB now joining in with the race to the bottom.

 

 

[Loki]

Just now, sancho panza said:

Stock Markets rarely crash in eleciton years.

That's what I couldn't understand WRT to the September prediction.  If they've got £1.6t ready to go, Trump can claim he's saved the economy

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

WHy Fed print to 90?Sorry if I sound naieve.Is that because fed can print to 90 without inflation,is it because they'll want it down there to make USD competitve?

I'm starting to wonder if they will manage it before September.  DXY seems to be full of hydrogen!

[Loki]

Trump on a mad one with the infrastructure tweets....

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

10 hours ago, Loki said:

This seems like a vid everyone should watch.  I wonder if the $1.6t government "war chest" is what will be used AFTER the possible September crash we have spoken about on here.  Secure another term for Trump, and kick the next cycle off.  He makes it very clear that government QE goes directly into the economy.

 

 

Having a hard time with the 'conspiracy' angle.
First day of the thread, DB told us it would go down like this.  It's the same in every developed economy.  The timing comes from the economic collapse caused by 'Cervesa Sickness'.   It's just Trump's luck if it coincides with an election in his country.  (if, indeed he does manage to spend the money in such a way as to juice the economy all the way up to the election, and as long as our tinfoil hat isn't so big we think Trump released the virus to cause the collapse to make the Fed print so they'd get the warchest.)

I do agree the game for Trump is to use the warchest to get to the election with the S&P as high as possible, but think thats in synch with the desired V-shape recovery.   Can he get the $ flowing fast enough?  Will Congress agree to everything?  Will the second crash come if there's a delay with either of these?

[DoINeedOne]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

leave the top 10%-20% and the bottom 10%-20% to the specualtors

I like that reminds me a little of a quote i saved "The trick is to get of the elevator on the way up, not when its coming back down"  something along those lines anyway

Added to $MAI was up 130% and decided to buy some more

Also bought first small ladder on the company i talked about before Helios Towers $HTWS 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Having a hard time with the 'conspiracy' angle.
First day of the thread, DB told us it would go down like this.  It's the same in every developed economy.  The timing comes from the economic collapse caused by 'Cervesa Sickness'.   It's just Trump's luck if it coincides with an election in his country.  (if, indeed he does manage to spend the money in such a way as to juice the economy all the way up to the election, and as long as our tinfoil hat isn't so big we think Trump released the virus to cause the collapse to make the Fed print so they'd get the warchest.)

I do agree the game for Trump is to use the warchest to get to the election with the S&P as high as possible, but think thats in synch with the desired V-shape recovery.   Can he get the $ flowing fast enough?  Will Congress agree to everything?  Will the second crash come if there's a delay with either of these?

I would suggest the conspiracy (If you want to call it that) isn't COVID but the colossal over-reaction to it.  Trump/the state/the leaders weren't responsible for an unknown virus - they were responsible for blithely allowing its spread, then grenading the economy.  But, then it turns out to actually be no more lethal than a bad flu season.

Doesn't matter, the green light was given for the next round of plumbing liquidity!  Your final paragraph follows on from this which it looks like we agree on. 

[Heart's Ease]

On 03/06/2020 at 12:21, Loki said:

The original posts from 1997 onwards by 'Another' and 'Friend of Another'

https://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

 

@Loki - before we move to part 3 of the thread I thought I'd come back to your mention of Another and FOA with a post I made a couple of months ago.  Have you retrieved the archive posts via FOFOA's site? 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

@Loki - before we move to part 3 of the thread I thought I'd come back to your mention of Another and FOA with a post I made a couple of months ago.  Have you retrieved the archive posts via FOFOA's site? 

Yes, I read up to page 4 of posts before moving on to other things and forgetting about them.  I started posting some snippets that stood out to me but there's so much there I may have ended up posting the whole thing, and what stands out to me may not to someone else, and vice-versa. 

"Britain? A lost nation" is up there with "Mostly harmless"

[Heart's Ease]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

Yes, I read up to page 4 of posts before moving on to other things and forgetting about them.  I started posting some snippets that stood out to me but there's so much there I may have ended up posting the whole thing, and what stands out to me may not to someone else, and vice-versa. 

"Britain? A lost nation" is up there with "Mostly harmless"

Slightly cross threading here but I think I first read about the concept of Freegold on Zerohedge and the comments section took me to The Trail and then onto FOFOA (or it could have been Dr Bubb?) That would be roughly ten years ago now. I should re-read with my older eyes...

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

I should re-read with my older eyes...

What was your original opinion of his thoughts on the Euro? 

[Heart's Ease]

18 minutes ago, Loki said:

What was your original opinion of his thoughts on the Euro? 

Lol I started to write something in my previous post along the lines of - ten years on it would surprise me even more if the thing that was going to save the world was the first line of the European accounting system marking Gold to Market (didn't FOFOA say $55,000 an ounce would absorb all debt as it stood ten years ago?). And then I thought - I really need to refresh my memory on this!

At the time I thought it made sense. It was as convincing an explanation for the shift away from the US$ as reserve currency as I had seen - we know the dollar will die as all reserve currencies will... The Euro balance sheet trick gives an opportunity for reset and then the genius of floating gold (that's the bit I really need to read back on).

Was it Another or FOA who said that Gold was the only thing that all that debt could be absorbed in? 

Does MMT get a run first?

I don't subscribe to the speakeasy so have no idea where the FOFOA gang is up to on this, apart from his anniversary and NY excerpts he makes available.

Apols if this is going off track of the thread but it has been an interesting niche for nearly 25 years and as Loki says, the link to the Euro was something I found mindboggling.

Edited to add: Loki - what are your thoughts?!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Having a hard time with the 'conspiracy' angle.
First day of the thread, DB told us it would go down like this.  It's the same in every developed economy.  The timing comes from the economic collapse caused by 'Cervesa Sickness'.   It's just Trump's luck if it coincides with an election in his country.  (if, indeed he does manage to spend the money in such a way as to juice the economy all the way up to the election, and as long as our tinfoil hat isn't so big we think Trump released the virus to cause the collapse to make the Fed print so they'd get the warchest.)

I do agree the game for Trump is to use the warchest to get to the election with the S&P as high as possible, but think thats in synch with the desired V-shape recovery.   Can he get the $ flowing fast enough?  Will Congress agree to everything?  Will the second crash come if there's a delay with either of these?

Yep,no conspiracy at all,thats not how CBs work.People mistake their job and aims.Their main job is to try to ensure our way of life continues and that our economies can grow over time with a slowly increasing liquidity.Goverments are elected to choose to guide where.Where macro comes in is understanding the leads and lags.We arent better than them,its just we hopefully see what they have to react to.The reflation part comes from the political cycleas much as the macro.Both collide once or twice a lifetime.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Edited to add: Loki - what are your thoughts?!

I don't know enough to say, this is one I'm happy to read other's thoughts on but sit out myself 

The Euro idea was pretty mind-blowing when I read it recently but as a novice reading it 20 years later with 'instant foresight'  it was easy to write it off as a very interesting idea but nothing more

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,no conspiracy at all,thats not how CBs work.People mistake their job and aims.Their main job is to try to ensure our way of life continues and that our economies can grow over time with a slowly increasing liquidity.Goverments are elected to choose to guide where.Where macro comes in is understanding the leads and lags.We arent better than them,its just we hopefully see what they have to react to.The reflation part comes from the political cycleas much as the macro.Both collide once or twice a lifetime.

I'm not looking for conspiracies I'm looking for confirmation of the reflation...hence the $1.6t followed by seeing Trump's twitterstorm jumped out at me.  My understanding is that the final can kick isn't a given, just that if it isn't, we will go Mad Max now rather than in 2030.

[JMD]

21 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Hey JMD, what bit makes no sense ?

I'm not saying Im right, I'm saying i'm worried and I have no real idea what to do for the best.  It makes no sense to go all in into any market ever.  property is tangible and servers a purpose, we'd still have enough from the other (hopefully) less vulnerable investments to see us ok for many a year.  

I'd buy more shares now but I do think we are going to see a big US collapse at some point this year.  

My SIPP provider says they wont accept an in-specie shares transfer so I have to sell up to move in.  When I sell up I am not buying back any time before Jan, but I will buy back.

We love Greece but it's less stable and from what I read a lot of angry people there.  I'll pass on that one.

Count, hmm?? I said it made sense. I didn't say 'no' sense. 

[JMD]

21 hours ago, sancho panza said:

You've got to wonder who's putting money in there?

SP, re your question about the new Hertz investors, that's a great question. If we only knew the answer we could all adjust our investing strategies and become next cycle millionairs, hell probably billionairs! Seriously though, is there a way of discovering it (like who is buying/selling shares) or is it all a 'closed-book'?   

[Dogtania]

Just signed up to Coinfloor, I know there was some discussion on bitcoin in the last few days and where to purchase.  I have no experience with Coinfloor or tbh crypto but know that Coinbase who I have used previously really rip you one with their fees.  Still need to get verification etc completed but I believe they also offer some kind of monthly auto buy feature, I guess idea being to dollar average etc.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

32 minutes ago, JMD said:

Count, hmm?? I said it made sense. I didn't say 'no' sense. 

Musta mis read it.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

Lol I started to write something in my previous post along the lines of - ten years on it would surprise me even more if the thing that was going to save the world was the first line of the European accounting system marking Gold to Market (didn't FOFOA say $55,000 an ounce would absorb all debt as it stood ten years ago?). And then I thought - I really need to refresh my memory on this!

At the time I thought it made sense. It was as convincing an explanation for the shift away from the US$ as reserve currency as I had seen - we know the dollar will die as all reserve currencies will... The Euro balance sheet trick gives an opportunity for reset and then the genius of floating gold (that's the bit I really need to read back on).

Was it Another or FOA who said that Gold was the only thing that all that debt could be absorbed in? 

Does MMT get a run first?

I don't subscribe to the speakeasy so have no idea where the FOFOA gang is up to on this, apart from his anniversary and NY excerpts he makes available.

Apols if this is going off track of the thread but it has been an interesting niche for nearly 25 years and as Loki says, the link to the Euro was something I found mindboggling.

Edited to add: Loki - what are your thoughts?!

I don't think mentioning 'Another/FOA/FOFOA...' is going off-track. Thanks to Loki's original post, even i did further reading on those guys (and i admit to being pretty ignorant about these concepts).

However their Euro hypothesis did make me laugh - but then if they/he were writing today (are they/he still around?) i expect they would be embracing crypto as the new currency; and that they were vindicated about defining gold/'Freegold' as being the 'store of wealth', and not part of the new money/currency system.

btw, correct me if i am wrong on any of this, as i say i'm no expert, and tbh their posts were so voluminous/generic i sort of lost track now and again. 

[leonardratso]

53 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Just signed up to Coinfloor, I know there was some discussion on bitcoin in the last few days and where to purchase.  I have no experience with Coinfloor or tbh crypto but know that Coinbase who I have used previously really rip you one with their fees.  Still need to get verification etc completed but I believe they also offer some kind of monthly auto buy feature, I guess idea being to dollar average etc.

hehe, i found the exact opposite, i had a coinfloor account but closed it because i found them a rip off, and their trading screen was abysmal.

i agree coinbase is a rip off as well, but when you open a coinbase account, you automatically get a coinbase pro or was old gdax account and you can vastly reduce fees there by using limit orders, i dont think ive ever been charged more than a couple of quid in fees for sometimes quite large amounts in the past, but you have to use the pro version and you have to setup the limit orders, dont buy at market price, slightly below or slightly above on your limit order. of course below you might miss it as it takes off, but it will be back, and its why i can rinse and repeat so much, a lot of it seems to happen overnight when a ramp/dump is going on in another timezone, but ive yet to have a limit order buy or sell fail and thats been over at least a 3 year period.

Ah, just checked my notes from last year, the main reason i dumped coinfloor was because they introduced minimums for buying and transferring out, also im alluding to some kind of fee and slow transfer times from/to my bank account - i think - old notes they may have backtracked on some of them in the bear market it had become by then, i do like coinbases in/out transfers though, zero fees and FPA- they say 3 working days on their website, but ive found it to be 15 mins to 2 hours in practise, both in and out, i can literally catch a bull run withoput having any cash there at all by transferring it in quickly and buying.

 

[Craig]

36 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hehe, i found the exact opposite, i had a coinfloor account but closed it because i found them a rip off, and their trading screen was abysmal.

i agree coinbase is a rip off as well, but when you open a coinbase account, you automatically get a coinbase pro or was old gdax account and you can vastly reduce fees there by using limit orders, i dont think ive ever been charged more than a couple of quid in fees for sometimes quite large amounts in the past, but you have to use the pro version and you have to setup the limit orders, dont buy at market price, slightly below or slightly above on your limit order. of course below you might miss it as it takes off, but it will be back, and its why i can rinse and repeat so much, a lot of it seems to happen overnight when a ramp/dump is going on in another timezone, but ive yet to have a limit order buy or sell fail and thats been over at least a 3 year period.

Ah, just checked my notes from last year, the main reason i dumped coinfloor was because they introduced minimums for buying and transferring out, also im alluding to some kind of fee and slow transfer times from/to my bank account - i think - old notes they may have backtracked on some of them in the bear market it had become by then, i do like coinbases in/out transfers though, zero fees and FPA- they say 3 working days on their website, but ive found it to be 15 mins to 2 hours in practise, both in and out, i can literally catch a bull run withoput having any cash there at all by transferring it in quickly and buying.

 

If you're looking for something quick and straightforward without a full trading interface, then you could do a lot worse than Uphold or Revolut. Rates can be a bit steep, though certainly no worse than Coinbase's. 

[jamtomorrow]

3 minutes ago, Craig said:

If you're looking for something quick and straightforward without a full trading interface, then you could do a lot worse than Uphold or Revolut. Rates can be a bit steep, though certainly no worse than Coinbase's. 

Also, if *trading* is important to you, it's worth doing more extensive research - Coinbase retail can become hard/impossible to access during periods of market frenzy/irrationality. Which has never bothered me, because I don't trade. But if I did, it would *really* grind my gears.

@leonardratso have you found GDAX / CBPro any better in that respect?

[Dogtania]

Thanks for the info.  @leonardratso I've only ever bought small amounts a few times in coinbase and iirc the fees always seemed quite large but I guess that's the same everywhere.  Even though buying foreign currency I would expect a fee for some reason still hurt buying a couple hundred of BTC and losing a few pounds off the bat.

Regarding revoult @Craigit is not somewhere you own the coins so not great IMO.  I do have a cold storage wallet thing think it's trezor.  Main reason I initially got was for transferring the maidsafe tokens as all the exchanges they were listed on kept delisting.. And honestly I shouldn't really be keeping on an exchange anyway as I'm not trading.

Saw revoult had gold offered recently which was interesting, wonder if they will subsequently offer silver.  All the same I would argue a lot safer going for something like bullionvault.

[leonardratso]

9 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Also, if *trading* is important to you, it's worth doing more extensive research - Coinbase retail can become hard/impossible to access during periods of market frenzy/irrationality. Which has never bothered me, because I don't trade. But if I did, it would *really* grind my gears.

@leonardratso have you found GDAX / CBPro any better in that respect?

ive never had any trouble to be honest, but then again like DB i take the emotion out of it by setting up sell points and buy points well in advance and then i ignore it whatever happens, if the prices go to the next level before a longish plateau then i might adjust the levels, ive never had a hit limit order fail though, even when the markets been very high volume.

Depends what you call a high fee though i reckon, looks like my limits vary between coins on fees, BTC looks probably the worst ant maybe 0.5%, but considering i only deal small its nothing to be honest; heres last few trades, some went underwater like OMG but i dont care, im not playing with QE amounts here;

 

note the times, these are all limit orders, im not signed on when they hit.