Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

use coinbase pro instead, its much closer to spot price, coinbase app and website really gouge you on price.

and fees.

https://pro.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-GBP

 

 

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

See, this is the "narrative" which does my head in!  You are deemed "fortunate", "lucky", or "privileged"

I think I am fortunate but I don't consider my pension a privilege, its part of my T&Cs...this is where a lot of employees go wrong, they think its an `extra`/bonus.

 

6 hours ago, Harley said:

You may or not be better off than me but life is a kaleidoscope of fortune and I'm undoubtedly much more handsome than you!

The only problem with that is as you age your looks fade, hopefully if I keep digesting the good advice here my `fortune` won`t! :-)

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Would *love* to see that in action, rolling up at the auction with a set of scales and a clipboard!! Or does everyone do that already?

Just don't let the police catch you on the way there, as that sherbet dip in your pocket could be interpreted in a whole new way!

[jamtomorrow]

19 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

use coinbase pro instead, its much closer to spot price, coinbase app and website really gouge you on price.

and fees.

https://pro.coinbase.com/trade/BTC-GBP

 

 

Ah, so CB pro is the old GDAX?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Waste of time though - there'll be a miraculous spate of boating accidents the moment this looks like a reality.

Don't think they care as long as there's a bit of GDP involved.  My pension adviser mentioned pension freedom was all about getting people to spend.

The problem with excluding pensions from such a tax is they've probably got some special ideas for those!   In that respect pensions are like property, easy to track and contain.

[Loki]

DXY heading back towards mid 97s...I mean how hard is it to just keep it going down consistently? 

 

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Ah, so CB pro is the old GDAX?

yers, i used to like the old gdax, coinbase-pro is ok, bitfinex i used to like as well since you could lend out your coins for margin and get a bit more back, very good in a bear market, mainly cant be arsed with it all now, might buy a grands worth of shit in bits and bobs and then set up limit sells for when it recovers then take out the profit, piss it away and rinse and repeat with the grand. It certainly aint the cash machine it used to be, and to be brutally honest i dont trust it as far as i can throw it, i reckon its mainly chinese people i take money off, or hunker down waiting with.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Something's not being mentioned here.I read that the Indians got reinforcements from their base two miles away after their OC got whacked.There's no way they wouldn't have come back tooled up to the nines.Especially if the OC isn't there and it's looking like a survival fight.

I also doubt this whole patrolling without weapons.

I suspect there's a been a firefight and noone wants to admit it.

It's intriguing to wathc.I was chatting to a friend this morning and we were talking about when the printing will stop/when will the rally peter out.My view and I maintian it is that the Fed will do as reasoned through on here,print until it can't ie inflation is running.When the Fed can't print any more then I think the Big K will be inbound.The solvency event.

thought provoking omment in bold. so basically you're saying the amount of printing isn't causing the wekness but rather the fact that the Fed and US insto's are the main buyers?

Yes,because it shows the intent to monetize government spending.Monetary printing it to put the financial system on a stable footing.It tends to replace currency already deflated/defaulted.Printing to monetize fiscal is pure inflation.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I like this reasoning. Liquidity injections are trumping all else, as DB has been smacking into our heads, much to the consternation of fintwit. People are marvelling aghast at the Robinhood traders bidding up US stocks, while failing to note that its just an expression of Fed lquidity, i.e. stimulus money to tens of millions of people looking to get rich quick. So the questions are (a) when will inflation start to show up, and (b) how much will cause the Fed to down tools? I'm thinking back to Carney and the like 'looking through' 5% inflation, and the Fed talking about inflation average over a number of years. Big K could be a while yet. Thoughts?

Iv several routes on the road map for amounts.UK i think we get £600 to £800 billion from the start of March,so maybe half way.Fed is probably 1/3 to 1/2 through now.They might add the odd bit to monetize for governments if rates creep up.Printing will mostly be over by xmas,or maybe late spring next year.Inflation will appear around the same time.I dont expect high inflation for around four to six years,its later in the cycle it really gets going.

In simple terms the Fed prints until the dollar hits 90 and it might follow through down to 85.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv several routes on the road map for amounts.UK i think we get £600 to £800 billion from the start of March,so maybe half way.Fed is probably 1/3 to 1/2 through now.They might add the odd bit to monetize for governments if rates creep up.Printing will mostly be over by xmas,or maybe late spring next year.Inflation will appear around the same time.I dont expect high inflation for around four to six years,its later in the cycle it really gets going.

In simple terms the Fed prints until the dollar hits 90 and it might follow through down to 85.

It's mind boggling the figures involved.

I make it £50,000 for every working adult in the UK.

 

 

[Loki]

This seems like a vid everyone should watch.  I wonder if the $1.6t government "war chest" is what will be used AFTER the possible September crash we have spoken about on here.  Secure another term for Trump, and kick the next cycle off.  He makes it very clear that government QE goes directly into the economy.

 

 

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv several routes on the road map for amounts.UK i think we get £600 to £800 billion from the start of March,so maybe half way.Fed is probably 1/3 to 1/2 through now.They might add the odd bit to monetize for governments if rates creep up.Printing will mostly be over by xmas,or maybe late spring next year.Inflation will appear around the same time.I dont expect high inflation for around four to six years,its later in the cycle it really gets going.

In simple terms the Fed prints until the dollar hits 90 and it might follow through down to 85.

WHy Fed print to 90?Sorry if I sound naieve.Is that because fed can print to 90 without inflation,is it because they'll want it down there to make USD competitve?

 

37 minutes ago, Loki said:

This seems like a vid everyone should watch.  I wonder if the $1.6t government "war chest" is what will be used AFTER the possible September crash we have spoken about on here.  Secure another term for Trump, and kick the next cycle off.  He makes it very clear that government QE goes directly into the economy.

 

 

Thanks for posting Loki,Traditonally,Stock Markets rarely crash in eleciton years.

Don't know if it will hold for this year but if Trump wants re election then allowing the solvency phase to begin is a nono.

Separate thread on the betting but I'll look forward to watching this tmrw night...

 

 

ECB now joining in with the race to the bottom.

 

 

[Loki]

Just now, sancho panza said:

Stock Markets rarely crash in eleciton years.

That's what I couldn't understand WRT to the September prediction.  If they've got £1.6t ready to go, Trump can claim he's saved the economy

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

WHy Fed print to 90?Sorry if I sound naieve.Is that because fed can print to 90 without inflation,is it because they'll want it down there to make USD competitve?

I'm starting to wonder if they will manage it before September.  DXY seems to be full of hydrogen!

[Loki]

Trump on a mad one with the infrastructure tweets....

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

10 hours ago, Loki said:

This seems like a vid everyone should watch.  I wonder if the $1.6t government "war chest" is what will be used AFTER the possible September crash we have spoken about on here.  Secure another term for Trump, and kick the next cycle off.  He makes it very clear that government QE goes directly into the economy.

 

 

Having a hard time with the 'conspiracy' angle.
First day of the thread, DB told us it would go down like this.  It's the same in every developed economy.  The timing comes from the economic collapse caused by 'Cervesa Sickness'.   It's just Trump's luck if it coincides with an election in his country.  (if, indeed he does manage to spend the money in such a way as to juice the economy all the way up to the election, and as long as our tinfoil hat isn't so big we think Trump released the virus to cause the collapse to make the Fed print so they'd get the warchest.)

I do agree the game for Trump is to use the warchest to get to the election with the S&P as high as possible, but think thats in synch with the desired V-shape recovery.   Can he get the $ flowing fast enough?  Will Congress agree to everything?  Will the second crash come if there's a delay with either of these?

[DoINeedOne]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

leave the top 10%-20% and the bottom 10%-20% to the specualtors

I like that reminds me a little of a quote i saved "The trick is to get of the elevator on the way up, not when its coming back down"  something along those lines anyway

Added to $MAI was up 130% and decided to buy some more

Also bought first small ladder on the company i talked about before Helios Towers $HTWS 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Having a hard time with the 'conspiracy' angle.
First day of the thread, DB told us it would go down like this.  It's the same in every developed economy.  The timing comes from the economic collapse caused by 'Cervesa Sickness'.   It's just Trump's luck if it coincides with an election in his country.  (if, indeed he does manage to spend the money in such a way as to juice the economy all the way up to the election, and as long as our tinfoil hat isn't so big we think Trump released the virus to cause the collapse to make the Fed print so they'd get the warchest.)

I do agree the game for Trump is to use the warchest to get to the election with the S&P as high as possible, but think thats in synch with the desired V-shape recovery.   Can he get the $ flowing fast enough?  Will Congress agree to everything?  Will the second crash come if there's a delay with either of these?

I would suggest the conspiracy (If you want to call it that) isn't COVID but the colossal over-reaction to it.  Trump/the state/the leaders weren't responsible for an unknown virus - they were responsible for blithely allowing its spread, then grenading the economy.  But, then it turns out to actually be no more lethal than a bad flu season.

Doesn't matter, the green light was given for the next round of plumbing liquidity!  Your final paragraph follows on from this which it looks like we agree on. 

[Heart's Ease]

On 03/06/2020 at 12:21, Loki said:

The original posts from 1997 onwards by 'Another' and 'Friend of Another'

https://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

 

@Loki - before we move to part 3 of the thread I thought I'd come back to your mention of Another and FOA with a post I made a couple of months ago.  Have you retrieved the archive posts via FOFOA's site? 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

@Loki - before we move to part 3 of the thread I thought I'd come back to your mention of Another and FOA with a post I made a couple of months ago.  Have you retrieved the archive posts via FOFOA's site? 

Yes, I read up to page 4 of posts before moving on to other things and forgetting about them.  I started posting some snippets that stood out to me but there's so much there I may have ended up posting the whole thing, and what stands out to me may not to someone else, and vice-versa. 

"Britain? A lost nation" is up there with "Mostly harmless"

[Heart's Ease]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

Yes, I read up to page 4 of posts before moving on to other things and forgetting about them.  I started posting some snippets that stood out to me but there's so much there I may have ended up posting the whole thing, and what stands out to me may not to someone else, and vice-versa. 

"Britain? A lost nation" is up there with "Mostly harmless"

Slightly cross threading here but I think I first read about the concept of Freegold on Zerohedge and the comments section took me to The Trail and then onto FOFOA (or it could have been Dr Bubb?) That would be roughly ten years ago now. I should re-read with my older eyes...

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

I should re-read with my older eyes...

What was your original opinion of his thoughts on the Euro? 

[Heart's Ease]

18 minutes ago, Loki said:

What was your original opinion of his thoughts on the Euro? 

Lol I started to write something in my previous post along the lines of - ten years on it would surprise me even more if the thing that was going to save the world was the first line of the European accounting system marking Gold to Market (didn't FOFOA say $55,000 an ounce would absorb all debt as it stood ten years ago?). And then I thought - I really need to refresh my memory on this!

At the time I thought it made sense. It was as convincing an explanation for the shift away from the US$ as reserve currency as I had seen - we know the dollar will die as all reserve currencies will... The Euro balance sheet trick gives an opportunity for reset and then the genius of floating gold (that's the bit I really need to read back on).

Was it Another or FOA who said that Gold was the only thing that all that debt could be absorbed in? 

Does MMT get a run first?

I don't subscribe to the speakeasy so have no idea where the FOFOA gang is up to on this, apart from his anniversary and NY excerpts he makes available.

Apols if this is going off track of the thread but it has been an interesting niche for nearly 25 years and as Loki says, the link to the Euro was something I found mindboggling.

Edited to add: Loki - what are your thoughts?!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Having a hard time with the 'conspiracy' angle.
First day of the thread, DB told us it would go down like this.  It's the same in every developed economy.  The timing comes from the economic collapse caused by 'Cervesa Sickness'.   It's just Trump's luck if it coincides with an election in his country.  (if, indeed he does manage to spend the money in such a way as to juice the economy all the way up to the election, and as long as our tinfoil hat isn't so big we think Trump released the virus to cause the collapse to make the Fed print so they'd get the warchest.)

I do agree the game for Trump is to use the warchest to get to the election with the S&P as high as possible, but think thats in synch with the desired V-shape recovery.   Can he get the $ flowing fast enough?  Will Congress agree to everything?  Will the second crash come if there's a delay with either of these?

Yep,no conspiracy at all,thats not how CBs work.People mistake their job and aims.Their main job is to try to ensure our way of life continues and that our economies can grow over time with a slowly increasing liquidity.Goverments are elected to choose to guide where.Where macro comes in is understanding the leads and lags.We arent better than them,its just we hopefully see what they have to react to.The reflation part comes from the political cycleas much as the macro.Both collide once or twice a lifetime.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Edited to add: Loki - what are your thoughts?!

I don't know enough to say, this is one I'm happy to read other's thoughts on but sit out myself 

The Euro idea was pretty mind-blowing when I read it recently but as a novice reading it 20 years later with 'instant foresight'  it was easy to write it off as a very interesting idea but nothing more