Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[jamtomorrow]

49 minutes ago, Errol said:

For those wondering about gold - apart from it being Comex options expiry nonsense, gold is also nicely completing the handle of a 10 year cup and handle formation (see below). It could retrace as far as $1700.

 

Been weird watching BTC and gold price action last few days - I'm long both at a ratio of 1 BTC per gold kg, and it's like some kind of self-driving portfolio rotating itself out of gold into BTC, without going anywhere much.

[Green Devil]

39 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am facing a nice dilemma. One of my old rules is I sell profit if a share ever hits +%30. Repsol are just nearing that as we speak. Do I take profit or just hang in for the long run? Decisions, decisions.

First rule, let the profits run 😁

[Barnsey]

 

[VeryMeanReversion]

 

 

I bought an extra £55K of RDSB and BP just before this crazy rise making ~£22K => Genius

However, I've lost more than that (£29K) on the one that cannot be named => Idiot

The consolation is that including divis from all of them over the last few years, its basically even.

SIPP is £11K up in a day overall so best ever, now six figures in RDSB/BP.  I'm going to fill up on super-unleaded next time to celebrate.

In an inflationary world, energy will be the new money.

[nirvana]

OIL HAS BROKEN OUT!

HODL FOR THE 911 

Edit: not gonna waste my money on something so ostentatious so might go for an ebike in the sun instead 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

BP seems to be lagging compared to all the others - any reasons from those wiser on here?

(Am not one of the 'wise' here) But maybe something to do with the ESG story...? BP certainly appear to be the most woke oilies. 

This guy recommends buying Gazprom, and not touching BP. 

See link below. (Thanks to Hearts Ease for originally posting link)

The End of the Oil Age? – TraderFerg

Extract here... Re. Mantra/Clamor for corporate 'Environmental-Social-Governance' (ESG) take BP as an example: 

“It marks a small setback for BP’s hopes to sell $25 billion in assets by 2025 in an effort to reduce debt as it begins a shift towards low-carbon energy. BP said it had already completed, or agreed, transactions approaching half of this target, including a $5.6 billion sale of its Alaska business and a $5 billion sale of its petrochemical business.“

This makes BP largely uninvestable in my view. Holding fire sales for their oil assets while buying into renewable projects at a premium is the definition of sell low, buy high.

[leonardratso]

whats that bag been thrown out of the porsche? is it coke? or dogshit?

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

whats that bag been thrown out of the porsche? is it coke? or dogshit?

Gold stocks? 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am facing a nice dilemma. One of my old rules is I sell profit if a share ever hits +%30

Strange coincidence, BT was up 30% for me last week and I was gonna sell.....must have gone for a crap in the woods and they went back down 

[arrow]

47 minutes ago, JMD said:

(Am not one of the 'wise' here) But maybe something to do with the ESG story...? BP certainly appear to be the most woke oilies. 

This guy recommends buying Gazprom, and not touching BP. 

See link below. (Thanks to Hearts Ease for originally posting link)

The End of the Oil Age? – TraderFerg

Extract here... Re. Mantra/Clamor for corporate 'Environmental-Social-Governance' (ESG) take BP as an example: 

“It marks a small setback for BP’s hopes to sell $25 billion in assets by 2025 in an effort to reduce debt as it begins a shift towards low-carbon energy. BP said it had already completed, or agreed, transactions approaching half of this target, including a $5.6 billion sale of its Alaska business and a $5 billion sale of its petrochemical business.“

This makes BP largely uninvestable in my view. Holding fire sales for their oil assets while buying into renewable projects at a premium is the definition of sell low, buy high.

Over 10 years ago, BP did try to make renewable successful, but wasn't successful, partly because it couldn't compete with cheap Chinese production.

Renewables only make economic sense for companies when they're either given huge government subsidies or oil prices are high enough to make renewable investment profitable.

Looney is probably betting on huge government infrastructure subsidies for green energy in the coming years and, as supply wont keep up with demand, high oil prices to make green energy economically competitive

Bp is aiming for a 40% reduction in its oil/gas production over 10 years, if Looney keeps his job, but the bulk of its money will still come from oil/gas

The selling of its petrochemical business and other projects has been spun as green PR, but BP has a lot of debt at about 41 billion dollars and is trying to reduce it. It's trying to get it down to 35. Once it does, it'll return 60% surplus money to shareholders with share buybacks

With its current and future investments in Hydrogen and the bulk of its production in oil/gas, I don't think BP is a sell just yet. If you're in shell/gazprom, etc, then I think BP is still a hold

 

[dgul]

I see Kitco has been down all day.  This usually means 'something' will happen to gold.  

[Loki]

Shit the bed, I last looked at my portfolio before the Americans opened

[planit]

Sorry to upset you all but what is the share that can not be named?

I would look back through the thread but you lot have managed to rack up about 2000 pages

 

Thanks

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

OIL HAS BROKEN OUT!

Got some REPSOL for the wife's ISA today. And my XOM are looking  a bit less sick

[Loki]

Does anyone know why my daily amount just went up to an increase of 4.6% but my total increase has lost £1000? 

Something to do with markets shutting in the UK? Surely the total is the total?

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Shit the bed, I last looked at my portfolio before the Americans opened

DOW OVER 30K!!! Dem mad Yankees must love that daft old fecker 'Biden the pedo'....

OR....

 

 

[Popuplights]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Does anyone know why my daily amount just went up to an increase of 4.6% but my total increase has lost £1000? 

Something to do with markets shutting in the UK? Surely the total is the total?

If it's on HL, the app always goes a bit mental after the close. 

2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

DOW OVER 30K!!! Dem mad Yankees must love that daft old fecker 'Biden the pedo'....

OR....

 

 

Smell them dollars.....

[leonardratso]

annusol would be better for your wifes ISA.

[AWW]

14 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Centrica. I still have it 

I sold at -£4k. Just wanted out. Looking at the 1Y chart, I've no regrets, but it's obvious that CNA has completely ignored what's happened to the energy sector this month. Must stop wondering whether it is about to join the party...

EDIT: Actually no, it hasn't ignored it, it has bounced. It's just that the bounce looks like nothing in the context of March.

[Loki]

Just now, Popuplights said:

If it's on HL, the app always goes a bit mental after the close. 

HL yes, but the website - although I guess the numbers are the same.  That's some screwy maths whatever they are doing. 

[nirvana]

I've been doing some chillin.....smoking my homegrown.....thinking like Powell

Until the next 'episode'....

[StrugglingMillennial]

13 minutes ago, Loki said:

HL yes, but the website - although I guess the numbers are the same.  That's some screwy maths whatever they are doing. 

It happened to me the other day Loki, i thought i'd won the lottery 😄

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

It happened to me the other day Loki, i thought i'd won the lottery 😄

Which number ended up being correct?   (  )

[JREWING]

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/united-kingdom/kistos-announces-proposed-admission-to-trading-on-aim-181189

Anybody looking at this stock?

Top sliced today.

Might take a dip in tomorrow. Worth a £10k punt?

Thoughts.

[StrugglingMillennial]

21 minutes ago, Loki said:

Which number ended up being correct?   (  )

It was my BT shares, they had gone up about three fold. I just checked the price of them elsewhere because i knew something was up.