Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[wherebee]

2 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm within 6.5% of my target (FTSE100=7700 or Portfolio=£X) prior to top-slicing ahead of the BK, so we can probably expect the BK in the next 5% increase.

Anyone else got a BK target?

nope, only a slice for me when GDXJ hits 75 - i'll be taking 20% off the table for oilies, telecoms, and miners.

[Bricormortis]

Silver at the moment is through resistance level of  $28.42, next hurdles $ 30 and $ 30.35, then it could be off to the races.

Does it get smacked down by bullion banks first, dunno.

[planit]

6 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm within 6.5% of my target (FTSE100=7700 or Portfolio=£X) prior to top-slicing ahead of the BK, so we can probably expect the BK in the next 5% increase.

Anyone else got a BK target?

No, I think that would be dangerous for me. I 100% rely on advice from DOSBODS.

There is 100% chance that after it happens someone will post on here how they knew it was going to happen. Then I just need to go back in time to sell everything.

Then sit back and watch it happen with some beer 

 

Easy!

[Donald McFlurry]

6 minutes ago, planit said:

Any VOD holders here got any comments, was a revenue decline expected and is this temporary?

I have been watching for a while and thought this might be a good entry point .

Dropped from 142 to 132.

 

Doesn't seem like they were way out of guidance. I may add more today with this drop.

[Castlevania]

12 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Silver at the moment is through resistance level of  $28.42, next hurdles $ 30 and $ 30.35, then it could be off to the races.

Does it get smacked down by bullion banks first, dunno.

It’s Tuesday. We all know what happens on a Tuesday.

 

[nirvana]

in other news Dick Cheney has a new tie 

Liz Cheney: Biden Military Budget 'Too Low' Despite Being Highest Of All Time

 

[CVG]

18 minutes ago, Donald McFlurry said:

Doesn't seem like they were way out of guidance. I may add more today with this drop.

"LONDON (Reuters) -Mobile operator Vodafone (LON:VOD) reported a 1.2% drop in full-year adjusted earnings, coming in at the bottom of its guidance and missing market expectations, after COVID-19 hit roaming revenue and handset sales.

The company posted adjusted EBITDA (earnings before tax, interest, depreciation and amortisation) of 14.4 billion euros on revenue of 43.8 billion euros, down 2.6%."

[Harley]

14 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Micheal 'the big short' Burry has taken a massive position against Tesla and more importantly for us is backing up his calls for massive inflation as Zerohedge says...

"But perhaps what is most remarkable, along with Burry's huge Tesla bearish bet, is his aggressive positioning for a surge in inflation (as a reminder, it was Burry back in February warned that Weimar hyperinflation is coming), which he is trading as follows:

• PUT on the TLT 20+ Year TSY bond ETF, equivalent to some 1.266MM shares or $171.5 million
• CALL on the TBT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 2.536MM shares or $55.1 million
• CALL on the TTT 20+ Year Treasury Ultrashort ETF, equivalent to 100K shares or $4.6 million
• CALL on the 3x levered TMV 20Y Treasury Bear ETF, equivalent to 38,400 shares or $3.1 million
• Outright long in the TBT 20Y Treasury Ultrashort ETF, amounting to 300,000 shares or $6.5 Million.

To summarize: Burry sees lots of downside in Tesla,  upside in Alphabet and Facebook, and is betting on a surge in Treasury yields."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-reveals-massive-tesla-short-huge-inflationary-bet

Really?  Has he not hedged the risk he's wrong as well?  And those ultrashorts (why would he use an ETF, that's more for the likes of me) implies he expects the mother of all declines and/or it to happen very soon.  Just sounds odd, maybe not the full picture?

[Harley]

On 17/05/2021 at 09:09, Craig said:

Got my PAXG in a Nexo account, currently earning 8%.

Duh, I looked it up and was scratching my head - how does an AsiaPac ETF help?

[Castlevania]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Really?  Has he not hedged the risk he's wrong as well?  And those ultrashorts (why would he use an ETF, that's more for the likes of me) implies he expects the mother of all declines and/or it to happen very soon.  Just sounds odd, maybe not the full picture?

He’s buying options, probably to hedge the long equity portfolio he manages.

[Harley]

23 hours ago, christh said:

Hi DB, you buying Yamana on the Toronto exchange? I see there's AUY.L on a CDI in London but seems super thinly traded. Cheers.

US too?  I tend to buy the Canadians on the US markets as they have higher volumes.  Also because all of the dividend on US stocks is free of WHT in a SIPP.  Is this the same for Canadian stocks?  Regardless, not sure yet if this works for the listed Canadian stocks or just the US stocks as WHT depends on the domicile of the company.  Anyone know?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

11 minutes ago, Harley said:

Really?  Has he not hedged the risk he's wrong as well?  And those ultrashorts (why would he use an ETF, that's more for the likes of me) implies he expects the mother of all declines and/or it to happen very soon.  Just sounds odd, maybe not the full picture?

It won't be the full picture, just highlights. I suspect he is very good at managing risk. Also that he is prepared to double down over time. Not sure why he would use ETFs. Perhaps they're the most liquid option?

[Castlevania]

8 minutes ago, Harley said:

US too?  I tend to buy the Canadians on the US markets as they have higher volumes.  Also because all of the dividend on US stocks is free of WHT in a SIPP.  Is this the same for Canadian stocks?  Regardless, not sure yet if this works for the listed Canadian stocks or just the US stocks as WHT depends on the domicile of the company.  Anyone know?

Domicile for WHT. The shares traded are the same regardless of exchange.

[Hancock]

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/18/net-zero-means-no-new-oil-gas-fields-warns-iea/

Net zero means no new oil and gas fields, warns IEA

IEA calls for abrupt halt to fossil fuel era as it warns demand must fall by 75pc to attain climate goals

ByRachel Millard18 May 2021 • 6:00am

The age of oil and gas exploration is already over and no new fields will need to be developed if the world succeeds in bringing global warming under control, the International Energy Agency has said.

In a landmark report on the path to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the organisation (IEA) says that oil demand will need to drop by 75pc over the next three decades - rendering the need to exploit new reserves obsolete. No further coal mines will be needed either.

Its forecasts suggest that the age of fossil fuels is coming to an abrupt end, and could raise fresh fears that investors have ploughed billions of pounds into worthless oil and gas projects.

The IEA - whose 30 member states include the UK, US, Germany and France but not China, the biggest carbon emitter - also calls for a worldwide ban on new petrol and diesel cars from 2035, and says that a dramatic increase in solar power will be needed to turbocharge the green revolution.

Panels equal in size to the world's largest solar park must be added every day as part of a colossal overhaul of power sources, it says in the report released today.

It expects natural gas use to drop 50pc as batteries replace petrol and diesel in cars, and hydrogen and electric pumps take a bigger role in home heating.

Gas and renewables have largely replaced coal

Bar chart with 6 data series.

The IEA report says: “Fossil fuel use falls drastically in the net-zero emissions scenario by 2050 and no new oil and natural gas fields are required beyond those already approved for development. 

“No new coal mines or mine extensions are required. Low-emission fuels - biogases, hydrogen, and hydrogen-based fuels - see rapid growth.”

The global energy system is already undergoing a huge overhaul, with money pouring into renewables and oil and gas behemoths such as BP and Shell pledging to slash their carbon emissions.

But the stark vision of an end to the development of new oil and gas fields is likely to send tremors through the industry, and bolster calls from activists for projects to be ditched now. The IEA said investment in existing projects will continue to be needed.

In 2019, then-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that millions of savers' pension funds could lose their value because of the switch away from oil and gas development.

The IEA report has been published six months ahead of the United Nations' Cop26 international climate change conference, which will be hosted in Glasgow by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Countries from around the world will meet to try and build on the agreements set out at Cop21 in Paris in 2015 to limit global warming to well below 2C, and preferably to 1.5C. 

The UK two years ago became the first major economy to pledge to slash greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. 

The IEA said several other countries have since followed suit, with net zero pledges now covering around 70pc of global GDP and CO2 emissions.  

But executive director Dr Fatih Birol warned global greenhouse gas emissions continued to grow and  said: “This gap between rhetoric and action needs to close if we are to have a fighting  chance of reaching net zero by 2050 and limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees.  

“Doing so requires nothing short of a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin our economies. We are in a critical year at the start of a critical decade for these efforts.”

The UK is already ahead on some of the IEA’s calls, with its own ban on the sales of new petrol and diesel cars bought forward to 2030. It has also set out plans to quadruple the amount of offshore wind.

However, ministers have so far stopped short of naming a date for when oil and gas exploration licences in the North Sea will no longer be allowed. 

Instead, new licencing rounds will be subject to a ‘climate compatibility checklist’ and will not go ahead if they are deemed to be incompatible with the UK’s net zero goals. 

The IEA said it is mindful that any overhaul of the energy system needs to be fair and that developing economies must get any help they need to help provide energy in a sustainable way. 

Greenpeace said the report makes clear that there is no need or justification for new oil and gas wells in the North Sea. 

Charlie Kronick, senior climate adviser for Greenpeace UK, added: “Yet the UK government undermines any claims to climate leadership by planning to press ahead with more oil and gas extraction. 

“To deliver on this government’s own climate rhetoric, and what the IEA now demands, Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng must rule out new oil and gas licences.”

[wherebee]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/18/net-zero-means-no-new-oil-gas-fields-warns-iea/

Net zero means no new oil and gas fields, warns IEA

IEA calls for abrupt halt to fossil fuel era as it warns demand must fall by 75pc to attain climate goals

ByRachel Millard18 May 2021 • 6:00am

The age of oil and gas exploration is already over and no new fields will need to be developed if the world succeeds in bringing global warming under control, the International Energy Agency has said.

 

in other words - be prepared to freeze to death, plebs, whilst us elites enjoy garden heaters and open coal fires.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

.....

Anyone else got a BK target?

I'll sell down to x% per holding (two thirds of my max allocation per stock) when my amazing system tells me to!  A lot looks toppy though so I'm boogying by the door and focussed on portfolio allocations. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, planit said:

Any VOD holders here got any comments, was a revenue decline expected and is this temporary?

I have been watching for a while and thought this might be a good entry point .

Dropped from 142 to 132.

 

Id buy any of the big telcos on weakness,if i didnt already own an allocation.The whole industry is at a turning point where investment falls as a proportion of sales as inflation kicks in.The likes of VOD will see revenue increase slightly later than the likes of BT and TEF because  the incumbents will put their regulated prices up first,then others will follow.

VOD had too many small parts,but they have mostly got shot of those now and should be much easier to manage going forward.They still have far too much debt of course,but it should fall by around 6% a year going forward.

Inflation is the key to the industry because it makes a massive difference when you can increase prices at 4%,with a fixed depreciation charge.

Telcos wont provide big capital gains quickly,but i see them as a solid part of a reflation portfolio.

 

[Majorpain]

59 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It’s Tuesday. We all know what happens on a Tuesday.

 

Bullion banks gearing up for a completely natural multi million oz dumping smash....

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

My SIPP punt into BTU has gone mental. My first double bagger i think

Making money from coal,you should be ashamed  ,gas and coal futures up in US.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

My SIPP punt into BTU has gone mental. My first double bagger i think

 

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Making money from coal,you should be ashamed  ,gas and coal futures up in US.

 

[Loki]

HL app is as reliable as a politicians promise this morning

[Hancock]

14 minutes ago, wherebee said:

in other words - be prepared to freeze to death, plebs, whilst us elites enjoy garden heaters and open coal fires.

Go on Charles stick another "oik" on the fire, my feet are tepid.

 

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Domicile for WHT. The shares traded are the same regardless of exchange.

Ta.  My real question was do we get the same nice WHT exemption for Canadian stocks (wherever listed) as US stocks - ie.  Is Canadian tax law the same as the US?

[DoINeedOne]

Vodafone Group Chairman bought 305,000 shares 

Aggregated price: GBP 1.350

[Harley]

13 hours ago, Boon said:

Interesting as I was thinking of adding some of those ETFs that Burry was on about.

Is there a guide to an optimal amount, for instance if you wanted to hedge £100k of equities?

Cazy times when I'm considering shorting bonds with a BK lurking due to concerns the old inverse correlations have broken down.