Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[M S E Refugee]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Not sure where you're getting the useless jabs conclusion MSE, those numbers are statistical noise on a population level. And as 80-90% of the pop is vaccinated, most of the noise (like a person with underlying probelms or one of the 5% that the vaccine doesn't work for) is in that group. Proportionately, more cases are still in the unvaccinated group. And the vast majority won't die or be hospitalised. No BK for me, there are too many parts of the world fully open like Texas or Florida for months with no problems.

It is more how the market would react if these Jabs are of no or limited use as Governments have went all in on the Vaccines.

To a rational person what is happening in Texas and Florida is good news but too many people think that Covid is a big deal.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths and hospitalisation, you just have to look at the UK numbers.

I'm not sure we will know if that is true until Autumn/Winter.

[planit]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

It is more how the market would react if these Jabs are of no or limited use as Governments have went all in on the Vaccines.

To a rational person what is happening in Texas and Florida is good news but too many people think that Covid is a big deal.

There is too much evidence that the vaccines are effective. If new strains come along that render existing vaccines ineffective, they will tweak the vaccine to work with the new variants.

We are a long way away from the general consensus being that the vaccines are ineffective or cause more problems than they solve. As time goes on the scientists are managing to explain the causes of the side effects so the risks go down of a serious side effect. 

ps I am not arguing for or against, that discussion is for elsewhere, the above is just what is most likely to be believed.

[M S E Refugee]

Just now, planit said:

There is too much evidence that the vaccines are effective. If new strains come along that render existing vaccines ineffective, they will tweak the vaccine to work with the new variants.

We are a long way away from the general consensus being that the vaccines are ineffective or cause more problems than they solve. As time goes on the scientists are managing to explain the causes of the side effects so the risks go down of a serious side effect. 

ps I am not arguing for or against, that discussion is for elsewhere, the above is just what is most likely to be believed.

Who says they are effective Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca?

[leonardratso]

hmm, just signed into my lloyds bank account and thats littered with advertising for its own share dealing stuff now, not seen that pushed so heavily before, more shoe shining. What do they know? why push it now, is it the transitory (ie permanent) inflation? Maybe they see accounts awash with cash.

(like mine).

 

[Transistor Man]

30 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths and hospitalisation, you just have to look at the UK numbers. 

I hope that’s true. But do we know that? 

[Majorpain]

5 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I hope that’s true. But do we know that? 

Doesn't matter if they don't, how much longer can the economy keep functioning normally without something breaking?  I very much doubt that printing past December will be on the table, at least not without staring into the Weimar/Zimbabwe abyss.

I really need to find the propaganda poster from 1919 with the government telling the young it was their patriotic duty to risk going to work to stop the economy from collapsing, funnily the exact opposite to this time round.

[MrXxxx]

Thought for the day based on an interesting quote from an FT article today:

'A pound invested and reinvested in 1900 would have become £572 pounds by 2020, after adjusting for inflation. A dollar invested and reinvested would have become $2,291. A pound invested in UK government bonds would have become £10.40 and a dollar invested in US bonds would have become $12.50.'

[Lightscribe]

27 minutes ago, planit said:

There is too much evidence that the vaccines are effective. If new strains come along that render existing vaccines ineffective, they will tweak the vaccine to work with the new variants.

We are a long way away from the general consensus being that the vaccines are ineffective or cause more problems than they solve. As time goes on the scientists are managing to explain the causes of the side effects so the risks go down of a serious side effect. 

ps I am not arguing for or against, that discussion is for elsewhere, the above is just what is most likely to be believed.

There’s also no evidence of longer term side effects, especially in a newer form of delivery like in mRNA. Limited papers so far, but studies like the one below, suggest it doesn’t stay where it’s supposed to. It may indeed be effective at preventing deaths with Covid (bearing in mind most of the older/vulnerable adults would have received the AZ jab), but the resulting over production of spike proteins may cause issues further down the line.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7786155/
 

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/assessment-report/spikevax-previously-covid-19-vaccine-moderna-epar-public-assessment-report_en.pdf

[MrXxxx]

On 10/07/2021 at 17:07, Loki said:

I bought cigars with my medical exemption card around my neck

Even i cringed a bit but fuck em

...but did you not explain to the checkout girl that the bumper pack of condoms that you always buy was the cause of the issue/need for the card i.e. breathlessness?

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It's not jsut shrinkfaltion tho Barnsey.Ingerdient disinflation is another issueMrs P is a food scientist,lots of products get re engineered ith more cost effective ingredients.

I find this interesting [and off topic], and you don't have to answer if you don't want to, does this mean that you don't eat processed food and/or does shopping take twice as long as Mrs P looks at all the labels?....must be great learning for your kids in nutrition....MrS P covers healthy diets and Mr P covers a healthy bank balance/investment strategy!

[MrXxxx]

27 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The % of hospitalisation and deaths/cases in the UK. Totally different to previous case waves. Unless that data is made up, thats what says it. That, and the empty hospitals. This winter will be carnage for sure, with flu alone, and I'm sure that'll be spun into whatever. But I really don't think there is any great drama with the vaccines. I'll leave my 2c there and take it to the corona thread,sounds fun over there!

But bear in mind pre-vaccine and during the first round of Covid populations were being 'purged' of the weakest, so come the second and subsequent rounds [Post-vaccination] a) the populations are 'fitter', and b) Covid has had natural selection acting on serotypes making it less virulent [harmful] but more transmissible....remember correlation doesn't necessarily imply cause/effect....

 

...anyway, back to making money...trying to teach myself TA, what does the Blue circles with 'D', and the Red circles with 'E' represent in the figure below? @Harley?

[DurhamBorn]

What matters is that Covid etc is only the trigger for the end of the last cycle,it was coming whatever as all the macro said dis-inflation had ran its course,from economic indicators,political and social.Covid,could of been a war,a collapse,anything.

This is all classic looking for a reason stuff when the cycle is already underway.Liquidity drives everything,that and the cost of money.An interesting part to this cycle though,and one i didnt expect or even think about was the demand for money/credit falling very hard in the bond markets.Im trying to understand that now and add to roadmaps,but the main thing is it seems to push the cycle even more to a fiscal government injection cycle and CBs having bigger balance sheets.

Key things are the same as this thread always said.Western economies cant produce the wealth to sustain the demands.That means more production coming back,more investment in the backbone of the economy,and thats exactly what is happening behind the noise.

Companies who had to spend massive amounts building out physical assets during the dis-inflation were hated by the market because they dont understand how much inflation matters to these companies.Cost of capital can nearly be as much as return on capital employed and they run to stand still,or leverage to stand still.

The government is going to be fighting massive problems and at a time when the CBs stop printing.They need inflation to be higher than spending increases.The struggle of employers to get workers is classic stuff.I said to many people wages were going up and they thought i was mad,but welfare,retirement and wellbeing surpass wages for very large numbers of people.Government needs to reform welfare quickly,but im not sure they have the political will.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Thought for the day based on an interesting quote from an FT article today:

'A pound invested and reinvested in 1900 would have become £572 pounds by 2020, after adjusting for inflation. A dollar invested and reinvested would have become $2,291. A pound invested in UK government bonds would have become £10.40 and a dollar invested in US bonds would have become $12.50.'

and a gold dollar would be worth 1800+

just sayin'

[dnb24]

Anecdotal- dads a agency truck driver - has been mental busy up to about 4 weeks ago. Been doing Amazon work lately- shunter in there said it’s been dead for past 4 weeks. 
Yesterday was working for the largest distributors of food and fuel In uk- lady who books the loads said the past 3 weeks have been really quiet. 
 

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, dnb24 said:

Anecdotal- dads a agency truck driver - has been mental busy up to about 4 weeks ago. Been doing Amazon work lately- shunter in there said it’s been dead for past 4 weeks. 
Yesterday was working for the largest distributors of food and fuel In uk- lady who books the loads said the past 3 weeks have been really quiet.

Do they think it's due to punters not buying or more the stuff isn't making it's way into the UK / supply chain disruption?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

hmm, just signed into my lloyds bank account and thats littered with advertising for its own share dealing stuff now, not seen that pushed so heavily before, more shoe shining. What do they know? why push it now, is it the transitory (ie permanent) inflation? Maybe they see accounts awash with cash.

(like mine).

 

Targeted I'd expect. They're not going to advertise share dealing to the large percentage of customers who never clear their overdraft. Possibly your account has just met certain criteria. Possibly they've started a campaign to win business from people with X income and/or wealth.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

The % of hospitalisation and deaths/cases in the UK. Totally different to previous case waves. Unless that data is made up, thats what says it. That, and the empty hospitals. This winter will be carnage for sure, with flu alone, and I'm sure that'll be spun into whatever. But I really don't think there is any great drama with the vaccines. I'll leave my 2c there and take it to the corona thread,sounds fun over there!

It is the death and hospitalisation rate that matters whatever the cause. Could be the vaccines, could be mutation to less lethal variants, could be summer lessening severity or could be, as I suspect, a mixture of all three. Better treatment would also help but we hear nothing of that.

For the markets it doesn't really matter what causes the death rate to decline so long as it does. If that changes, perhaps in winter, then it will smash the markets back down.

[dnb24]

25 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Do they think it's due to punters not buying or more the stuff isn't making it's way into the UK / supply chain disruption?

Ye the shunter said something along those lines- the distribution centre said it was orders that had fallen away-  not supply chain

[reformed nice guy]

Another anecdotal for the hive mind.

Looking for energy supplier for an elderly relative as their fixed deal was finished. Been looking around, so comparing old deal to what is available. Octopus energy often come up as a good one, so here are the old prices compared to new:

Electricity:

daily standing charge - old price: 20.09p, new price 24.86p = 23.74% rise

unit price - old: 14.52p, new 18.53p = 27.62% rise

Gas:

daily charge: was 17.42p, new 26.59p = 52.64% rise

unit = old was 2.89p, new 3.43 = 18.69% rise

Overall it is roughly a 25% rise in annual energy cost.

[sleepwello'nights]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths and hospitalisation, you just have to look at the UK numbers. They can play with case numbers all they want, if the market reacts to that so be it but I don't think it will.

Perhaps seasonality is greater factor than the gene therapy injection. 

[sleepwello'nights]

6 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Another anecdotal for the hive mind.

Looking for energy supplier for an elderly relative as their fixed deal was finished. Been looking around, so comparing old deal to what is available. Octopus energy often come up as a good one, so here are the old prices compared to new:

Electricity:

daily standing charge - old price: 20.09p, new price 24.86p = 23.74% rise

unit price - old: 14.52p, new 18.53p = 27.62% rise

 

I switched to a newcomer supplier unit rate is 12.514 with a daily standing charge of 12.000 per day.

They have visions of "create a sustainable future through the
generation of energy from renewable sources namely solar panels . The company is dedicated in reducing
the CO2 emissions and addressing the greater issue of global warming and the impact it has on our"

Whatever they say the key for me is the price. Found it on Money Saving Expert. 

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I switched to a newcomer supplier unit rate is 12.514 with a daily standing charge of 12.000 per day.

They have visions of "create a sustainable future through the
generation of energy from renewable sources namely solar panels . The company is dedicated in reducing
the CO2 emissions and addressing the greater issue of global warming and the impact it has on our"

Whatever they say the key for me is the price. Found it on Money Saving Expert. 

which one is this, im up for a a change soon and octopussy is getting a bit pricey, im also up for my new one going bust and me going stateless for a month or 2 and forgettig to pay my bills.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

22 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Another anecdotal for the hive mind.

Looking for energy supplier for an elderly relative as their fixed deal was finished. Been looking around, so comparing old deal to what is available. Octopus energy often come up as a good one, so here are the old prices compared to new:

Electricity:

daily standing charge - old price: 20.09p, new price 24.86p = 23.74% rise

unit price - old: 14.52p, new 18.53p = 27.62% rise

Gas:

daily charge: was 17.42p, new 26.59p = 52.64% rise

unit = old was 2.89p, new 3.43 = 18.69% rise

Overall it is roughly a 25% rise in annual energy cost.

I switched last week using money saving expert for the comparison. Ended up with outfox the market. Increase in price over my old supplier was less than 10%. Actual prices vary on location but I'm sure I'm paying less than that quote.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The % of hospitalisation and deaths/cases in the UK. Totally different to previous case waves. Unless that data is made up, thats what says it. That, and the empty hospitals. This winter will be carnage for sure, with flu alone, and I'm sure that'll be spun into whatever. But I really don't think there is any great drama with the vaccines. I'll leave my 2c there and take it to the corona thread,sounds fun over there!

They moved the goalposts in June:

Quote

 

Hospitals have been told to change the way they collect data on patients infected with coronavirus to differentiate between those actually sick with symptoms and those who test positive while seeking treatment for something else.

The move would reduce the overall number of patients in hospital for coronavirus as until now data from hospitals has included all patients who tested positive for Covid-19, regardless of whether they had symptoms or not.

NHS England has instructed hospitals to make the change to the daily flow of data sent by NHS trusts and told The Independent that the move was being done to help analyse the effect of the vaccine programme and whether it was successfully reducing Covid-19 sickness.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-hospitals-nhs-england-data-b1862804.html

 

"analyse the effect of the vaccine programme" = make it look better than it would, if they carried on counting like they did before.