Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Boon]

38 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

which one is this, im up for a a change soon and octopussy is getting a bit pricey, im also up for my new one going bust and me going stateless for a month or 2 and forgettig to pay my bills.

Yeah I'd like some recommendations as well. I am out of contract but did not find many savings, many of the big ones are all around the same price.

The cheapest ones near me seem like they have terrible customer service. Also what happens if they go bust? 

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

y.An interesting part to this cycle though,and one i didnt expect or even think about was the demand for money/credit falling very hard in the bond markets.Im trying to understand that now and add to roadmaps,but the main thing is it seems to push the cycle even more to a fiscal government injection cycle and CBs having bigger balance sheets

Is this not thinking about it from the wrong (traditional) end? I.e the government aren't responding to it, they have engineered it via their bond buying approach to reduce credit demand, and thus attain low interest rates that they can borrow against whilst using inflation to inflate away the debt?...something they couldn't have done if the gold standard still applied.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, wherebee said:

and a gold dollar would be worth 1800+

just sayin'

So is it fair to say that this point forward/now for simple investors the 60/40 equity/bond pension should be replaced for a 60/40 equity/pm allocation?

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

So is it fair to say that this point forward/now for simple investors the 60/40 equity/bond pension should be replaced for a 60/40 equity/pm allocation?

no, PM's are a whole different risk issue for each person based on security, location, etc etc.  I never got any when cheap because I was moving country each time, for example.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Do they think it's due to punters not buying or more the stuff isn't making it's way into the UK / supply chain disruption?

I think the latter. Spoke to someone who imports paragliders (all made in far East) and they stated a three months waiting period, unheard of in this area, normally they struggle for customers.

[MrXxxx]

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

no, PM's are a whole different risk issue for each person based on security, location, etc etc.  I never got any when cheap because I was moving country each time, for example.

Ok, what about pm miners/streamers that give a return and/or commods?

[Harley]

Interactive Investors are doing a free of commission deal on US shares for the next few days.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But bear in mind pre-vaccine and during the first round of Covid populations were being 'purged' of the weakest, so come the second and subsequent rounds [Post-vaccination] a) the populations are 'fitter', and b) Covid has had natural selection acting on serotypes making it less virulent [harmful] but more transmissible....remember correlation doesn't necessarily imply cause/effect....

 

...anyway, back to making money...trying to teach myself TA, what does the Blue circles with 'D', and the Red circles with 'E' represent in the figure below? @Harley?

I assume dividends and corporate events.

[DoINeedOne]

4 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Anecdotal- dads a agency truck driver - has been mental busy up to about 4 weeks ago. Been doing Amazon work lately- shunter in there said it’s been dead for past 4 weeks. 
Yesterday was working for the largest distributors of food and fuel In uk- lady who books the loads said the past 3 weeks have been really quiet. 
 

Just saw this on twitter

[BurntBread]

26 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just saw this on twitter

Why would anywhere be rammed on a Monday afternoon!?

Maybe she's comparing it to a Monday full of the furloughed, and the latter are now mostly having to go back to work? That, or it will be non-working people on benefits who are not showing up, but I can't see a reason they would have suddenly become poorer.

Sorry to jump on your post, DINO: it's an interesting anecdote, and is at least showing something, even if it' hard to figure out the root cause.

[HousePriceMania]

34 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just saw this on twitter

My missus has been to Decathlon today, fully stocked and empty, the shop, not her.

[kibuc]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

My missus has been to Decathlon today, fully stocked and empty, the shop, not her.

Fucking serves them right. We went to one the weekend before last - actually drove for almost an hour to get to one which had items we wanted in stock. Filled our basket, got to checkout - sorry, no cash. I threw in some expletives, left the basket in the middle of the floor and left. Then I noticed ASDA sharing the same building, selling Decathlon vouchers and accepting cash at the till. Bought the lot and send my missus back to Decathlon to complete the purchase because I couldn't be arsed to deal with the fuckers anymore. You'd imagine they must be beating customers away with a stick if they can turn away one willing to spend 300 quid.

Also, remember my wife trying (and failing) to buy that £170 waterproof jacket with cash the other day? She wandered around the town a bit longer recently and found it at £150 in a store that was actually interesed in doing business (as in: accepting cash whenever it comes). I feel like one of these stores might end up doing a bit better than the other in the long run.

 

[invalid]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep it was a cash cow for the UK for many years and it was blown on welfare it seems. They've tried tax grabs in more recent years (UK is regarded as an unstable tax regime in the industry, many third world countries are ranked higher). But the industry just goes "ok, we'll run our assets down and invest elsewhere". So you'll read about x number of billions of barrels of oil left in the North sea" but the fact is if the UK wants this energy security, there will be no tax to be gained, and will soon have to subsidy it (unless price does the same). The time to bank it us the middle of the production curve, say 1985 to 2000, not as its declining.

 

I thought it rather comical when the oil discussion came up for Scotland independence. I think some Scots truly believed that if they had control of the oil that Scotland would suddenly become like Dubai and they would all be driving Bentleys.

I'm struggling to remember the timescales but would guess at around 2005 - the oil industry were banging on about North Sea reserves falling and how the government needed to cut taxes. So the government duly did cut taxes and then not long after the 6 o'clock news was running headlines of this massive new find in the North Sea - which I understand was actually rather small despite it being called 'massive'.

Looking back, the whole thing seemed set up and played out.

 

[HousePriceMania]

[leonardratso]

ah thats better, i must get me some of that umber now its cheap again, might wait though, may become cheaper.

Nowt like cheap umber.

[Talking Monkey]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

We're terrible gossips. Some operators cordon off the well floor of a sensitive well to try and stop the hands running off to call their brokers. You don't see the oil gushing out, it's all well contained but you might get a few drops from rock fragments. I remember Cameron went up to the Shetlands around indyref time, papers full of a a huge find. It was just the next phase of a giant well known field, Clair. Nothing to see here, though Clair could be one of the few generating tax revs.

Scotland actually did their notional budget on 100 dollar oil IIRC, not even actual banana repuplics do that 😅

If the Scots theoretically got control of the oil, how much oil is actually left

[invalid]

18 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

If the Scots theoretically got control of the oil, how much oil is actually left

 

To give some credit to DECC, they used to present the data on production in a very easy and accessible format. You could get nice monthly data and a nice graph of output data going back to the 90's. This very clearly showed the decline in output with some great historical context.

Now that its the Oil and Gas authority the data I'm sure is there but its hard for a layman like me to find it.

I used to like the simple graphs that looked like this ( not from DECC but they had similar):

 

 

[Barnsey]

 

[Heart's Ease]

18 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

Thanks for this.  The short thread is worth a look and leads to his latest newsletter:

https://www.crescat.net/june-performance-estimates/

A snippet to whet the appetite:

"In our analysis, the disinflationary trend is unsustainable, has been way overdone, and is at major risk of reversing under a new regime that we call the Great Rotation. The catalyst for this regime is rising inflation combined with investors looking out for their best interests in typical fear and greed fashion. We believe investors should get positioned ahead of what we view as a highly probable if not inevitable stampede.

The Great Rotation

We believe forward-thinking investors will increasingly be selling historically expensive stocks and fixed income securities and buying true inflation-hedge assets, including commodities in scarce supply and high demand, and stocks in a narrow group of sectors such as energy and materials that offer both low valuation and high cyclical near-term growth prospects. This is what we call the Great Rotation.

From a macro standpoint, in our analysis, the opportunity for our activist precious metals strategy has never been brighter. Inflation expectations are only beginning to take off. The Conference Board’s 1-year forward inflation expectation survey just hit 6.7% the highest since March 2011, a time when the leading junior gold mining ETF was 236% higher. As the chart below shows, it is still early in what is likely to be a rip-roaring bull market for gold and silver mining and especially our expertly crafted exploration-heavy portfolio."

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep it was a cash cow for the UK for many years and it was blown on welfare it seems. They've tried tax grabs in more recent years (UK is regarded as an unstable tax regime in the industry, many third world countries are ranked higher). But the industry just goes "ok, we'll run our assets down and invest elsewhere". So you'll read about x number of billions of barrels of oil left in the North sea" but the fact is if the UK wants this energy security, there will be no tax to be gained, and will soon have to subsidy it (unless price does the same). The time to bank it us the middle of the production curve, say 1985 to 2000, not as its declining.

I think teh West more broadly is going to pay a high price for it's wokeness of late.We'll be competing with India and China for oil & gas with depreciating currencies and a missplaced sense of our own importance as nations.

We've been behaving like we have a raft of better viable options than oil/gas/coal/nuclear and quite simply the reality is that we don't.

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's all about the DUCs,they are drawing on wells that were previously drilled (2000 so far) and fracking them to save money. When these run out, likley in mext few months, they either have to ramp up rigs to drill new ones or production will fall. Hedging may prevent this.

Note: most of the wells remaining are unuseable, though I don't know where that point is. They've left no well stock for next year either way.

wow,that's some downward trajectory there CP,steeper and deeper than 2015 with no bottom in sight........It's going to be really interesting when we reach the point you describe where the market becomes aware that US shale isn't coming back ...well,not in 2021 anyway.

 

 

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Doesn't matter if they don't, how much longer can the economy keep functioning normally without something breaking?  I very much doubt that printing past December will be on the table, at least not without staring into the Weimar/Zimbabwe abyss.

I really need to find the propaganda poster from 1919 with the government telling the young it was their patriotic duty to risk going to work to stop the economy from collapsing, funnily the exact opposite to this time round.

I think this is the key here MP,they're running out of lockdown road,hence the July 19th unlocking.I can confirm the hosptials are rammed with loads of non covid patients.The NHS has a big enough job without another counter productive lockdown.

Not only do they need things starting to function like normal in the NHS,they also need the taxes to flow to pay for it.

Personally,I think sterling will be toast in this decade,and would have been sans covid,but covid will speed up the process of trashing our currency.

 

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The % of hospitalisation and deaths/cases in the UK. Totally different to previous case waves. Unless that data is made up, thats what says it. That, and the empty hospitals. This winter will be carnage for sure, with flu alone, and I'm sure that'll be spun into whatever. But I really don't think there is any great drama with the vaccines. I'll leave my 2c there and take it to the corona thread,sounds fun over there!

as @Democorruptcy and @Yadda yadda yadda have already said, there are a whole host of reasons that it's hard to draw firm conclusions about vaccine efficacy.

Never mind the winter,this summer is carnage already in the NHS.

Personally,I'm pretty sure vaccines have reduced hopitalisations due to covid but said hospitalisations were probably overstated in the first place(along with covid deaths).

The issue with the vaccines is that we don't know/aren't sure of the long term side effects as @Lightscribesays and what the costs of those side effects will be.Hopefully,they will be insubstantial. Having said that,I have had some experiences at work that have given me cause for concern and very much line up with issues discussed by Dr Malcolm Kendrick in this post on vasculitis-my experiences relate to a rise in new onset AF cases that I've diagnosed in the last few weeks.

AF raises clotting risks more generally,but these cases I saw won't be put down to the jab because they were two months post vaccine(there were various reasons that they weren't typical new onset AF presentations).The similarities between the cases and the fact that AF is generally diagnosed in primary care/hospital environments long before we arrive is the key issue for me.There's a high risk of sample bias clearly,but I'm looking for developments in this area and also to see if this recent experience is repeated going forward or  if it was just a freak couple of shifts(although on one shift where I handed over a third pt with new onset AF,the sister taking the handover said they'd had a lot presenting at A&E with it lately- but again I'd prefer firm data to two anecdotals.)

Interesting paper here by the Swiss Dr on rising US vaccine deaths.I'd generally agree with his conclusions on the risk/reward being skewed by age

US vaccine-related deaths increasing rapidly

 

13 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I find this interesting [and off topic], and you don't have to answer if you don't want to, does this mean that you don't eat processed food and/or does shopping take twice as long as Mrs P looks at all the labels?....must be great learning for your kids in nutrition....MrS P covers healthy diets and Mr P covers a healthy bank balance/investment strategy!

We do eat processed food,just within reason.Mrs P bless her just looks at the ingredients for a second and that's all the time she needs.She's that proficient -bless her- she can even tell when Aldi have changed the recipe in a sauce or a cereal and even tells me what they've added and taken out.Impressive tbh.

[sancho panza]

What debt problem?

 

[The Grey Man]

Why are Amazon bombarding me with requests for cash.

Sorry , my ignorance , chance for a second income according to the ads.

Just as  Bozo has left, rather stepped down.

Hmmm... something is brewing.

They have been a leading seller this last 18 months. Getting more expensive right from the start to.

Where have the economies scale gone? 

Havent ordered from these scallies for over  a year.

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

as @Democorruptcy and @Yadda yadda yadda have already said, there are a whole host of reasons that it's hard to draw firm conclusions about vaccine efficacy.

Never mind the winter,this summer is carnage already in the NHS.

Personally,I'm pretty sure vaccines have reduced hopitalisations due to covid but said hospitalisations were probably overstated in the first place(along with covid deaths).

Portugal's deaths were overstated by 99% according to a court case! Makes you wonder about ours.

Quote

 

According to the ruling, the number of verified COVID-19 deaths from January 2020 to April 2021 is only 152, not about 17,000 as claimed by government ministries.

https://rightsfreedoms.wordpress.com/2021/06/28/lisbon-court-rules-only-0-9-of-verified-cases-died-of-covid-numbering-152-not-17000-claimed/

 

Do you know anything about the number of PCR cycles being used now? Or if there is a difference between what they use on jabbed or non jabbed folk?

 

[geordie_lurch]

If after reading the following you guys still can't see what TPTB are trying to do are the largest coordinated 'macro' changes the world has ever seen i.e. France, Greece and UK all announcing mandatory vaccines for care workers on the same day and restricting people's freedoms via 'health' apps then I don't know what will make you reassess where things are going

To put it bluntly, if TPTB get their way and we all just accept this, our ISAs and everything else we have discussed on this great thread will be the least of our worries

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9780733/amp/Covid-France-Three-days-opening-nightclubs-President-Macron-announce-new-rules.html