Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Yep you've got to see these things coming ahead of the masses.

At some point they'll force savers into their crappy GREEN bonds while they keep inflation above the yield for year after year. It's fine knowing they're going to do this kind of stuff but it's how they implement it that is the big question. For example, what if they come out with a new law saying that all pensions (including SIPPS) and ISAs must hold 40% government bonds? Wouldn't surprise with the way things are going.

 

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, Starsend said:

what if they come out with a new law saying that all pensions (including SIPPS) and ISAs must hold 40% government bonds? Wouldn't surprise with the way things are going.

Anyone who doesn't support Freedom Bonds (!) is clearly a racist

[Barnsey]

First Ramsden, now Saunders. Busy day for hawkish perspectives, perhaps testing the waters given good job numbers also out today?

 

[DurhamBorn]

38 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I'm 40% oil & gas, 26% precious metals miners. Hilariously unbalanced but sometimes you got to have faith in your calls and go in big.

If I was 40% in FAANGS I'd be crapping myself because they're expensive. I'm happy with my exposure to energy because I think the whole sector is very cheap and cheap sectors never stay cheap forever.

I'm looking at diversifying more into emerging markets as recommended by Jeremy Grantham - he reckons they're cheapish and along with cash one of the better places to be in the event of the big mofo crash that's got to be coming.

I like the Henderson Far East fund which I believe some people on here own. Extra juicy dividend but it concerns me a bit that there seems to be a fair few Chinese companies and the sentiment against China is definitely becoming aggressive. Also Singapore (I like exposure to their currency), Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia. Might get me some of that along with IBZL.

 

 

Iv been buying the Henderson fund with some profits and divis that are rolling in.They have been buying Chinese banks,but own a lot of nice reflation type value stocks.Im leaning towards all this woke crap will weaken the west badly.Its a disaster,and Asian equities,value ones are a nice hedge against that.

I really hope the oilies can stay down so they can buy back as many shares as possible before renewables blow up.The costs of mining the things needed for the energy transition are huge,a magnitude, and people dont undertsand the energy use in that.Each tonne you need to mine of rock has a cost on how much percentage grade is what your after.I think the cost roughly trebles compared to what you need for carbon cars etc.The  irony is the higher the carbon tax,the higher the cost of transition.A classic inflation feedback loop.

Down the line blue hydrogen will easily outprice green,and natural solutions will become huge as politicians use them to get net zero when they realise their plans are a disaster.

I see no way they will be able to force people to get a heat pump etc,its all just pie in the sky talk.

[Starsend]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying the Henderson fund with some profits and divis that are rolling in.They have been buying Chinese banks,but own a lot of nice reflation type value stocks.Im leaning towards all this woke crap will weaken the west badly.Its a disaster,and Asian equities,value ones are a nice hedge against that.

I really hope the oilies can stay down so they can buy back as many shares as possible before renewables blow up.The costs of mining the things needed for the energy transition are huge,a magnitude, and people dont undertsand the energy use in that.Each tonne you need to mine of rock has a cost on how much percentage grade is what your after.I think the cost roughly trebles compared to what you need for carbon cars etc.The  irony is the higher the carbon tax,the higher the cost of transition.A classic inflation feedback loop.

Down the line blue hydrogen will easily outprice green,and natural solutions will become huge as politicians use them to get net zero when they realise their plans are a disaster.

I see no way they will be able to force people to get a heat pump etc,its all just pie in the sky talk.

Top holding is a chinese bank. I like Rio Tinto, BHP and TSMC. Overall 22% in China so need to keep an eye out for things hotting up between the West and China.

There's some utterly mentalist talk going on at the moment, like banning gas boilers in a couple of years - I mean what kind of Government is that retarded!

Do you have any thoughts on the likelihood of Governments eventually forcing us to buy their crappy paper in our SIPPS/ISAs?

 

 

China Construction Bank	4.80
Rio Tinto	3.92
BHP Group	3.75
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing	3.52
Macquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund	3.11
Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd USD	3.08
SK Telecom	2.93
Bank of Communications	2.91
Samsung Electronics	2.88
Hindustan Petroleum	2.83

 

 

 

 

 

 

[No One]

@DurhamBorn I have a question for you.

 

I'm seeing lot's of red. Buying opportunity or the end of the reflation trade?

Telefonica is down, would you buy more?
BP? Shell? etc

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn I have a question for you.

 

I'm seeing lot's of red. Buying opportunity or the end of the reflation trade?

Telefonica is down, would you buy more?
BP? Shell? etc

Its a reflation cycle,so its a 6 to 10 year timeframe.Telefonica is down slightly ,Telefonica Germany is up 7% since it was no 1 on @sancho panza Coma scores.There will be lots of pullbacks along the way,some very violent.Every one will see people shook out who think we are going back to dis-inflation etc.Its crucial to keep diverse,but id be happy to but most sectors we follow at the moment.Only one i took profits from was Shell.I bought a lot right at the bottom and have sold a lot between £14 and £15,but still own a decent holding.

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

I'm 40% oil & gas, 26% precious metals miners. Hilariously unbalanced but sometimes you got to have faith in your calls and go in big.

If I was 40% in FAANGS I'd be crapping myself because they're expensive. I'm happy with my exposure to energy because I think the whole sector is very cheap and cheap sectors never stay cheap forever.

I'm looking at diversifying more into emerging markets as recommended by Jeremy Grantham - he reckons they're cheapish and along with cash one of the better places to be in the event of the big mofo crash that's got to be coming.

I like the Henderson Far East fund which I believe some people on here own. Extra juicy dividend but it concerns me a bit that there seems to be a fair few Chinese companies and the sentiment against China is definitely becoming aggressive. Also Singapore (I like exposure to their currency), Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia. Might get me some of that along with IBZL.

 

 

I am 42% oil as well due to large purchases last year that have performed very well (thanks DB!)

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting historic milestone 

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I see no way they will be able to force people to get a heat pump etc,its all just pie in the sky talk.

Its bollocks, can confirm

[No One]

58 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a reflation cycle,so its a 6 to 10 year timeframe.Telefonica is down slightly ,Telefonica Germany is up 7% since it was no 1 on @sancho panza Coma scores.There will be lots of pullbacks along the way,some very violent.Every one will see people shook out who think we are going back to dis-inflation etc.Its crucial to keep diverse,but id be happy to but most sectors we follow at the moment.Only one i took profits from was Shell.I bought a lot right at the bottom and have sold a lot between £14 and £15,but still own a decent holding.

Ok, so how does Dr. Werner's model fit with yours?

 

 

Tim 28;00 onwards u to 32:40

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Yep you've got to see these things coming ahead of the masses.

At some point they'll force savers into their crappy bonds while they keep inflation above the yield for year after year. It's fine knowing they're going to do this kind of stuff but it's how they implement it that is the big question. For example, what if they come out with a new law saying that all pensions (including SIPPS) and ISAs must hold 40% government bonds? Wouldn't surprise with the way things are going.

This is what Russell Napier constantly warns about.

Financial repression.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

I like the Henderson Far East fund which I believe some people on here own. Extra juicy dividend but it concerns me a bit that there seems to be a fair few Chinese companies and the sentiment against China is definitely becoming aggressive. Also Singapore (I like exposure to their currency), Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia. Might get me some of that along with IBZL.

As with all markets, I buy the companies direct which means some odd sleep patterns (but only once a week).  I'm annoyed some (all?) of the UK based retail brokers impose the US ban on US citizens owning some HK stocks onto their UK investors too.  But yet again IB do it right.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, Mapper said:

This is what Russell Napier constantly warns about.

Financial repression.

I trust we've all been working hard to mitigate that during this quiet period!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Yep you've got to see these things coming ahead of the masses.

At some point they'll force savers into their crappy bonds while they keep inflation above the yield for year after year. It's fine knowing they're going to do this kind of stuff but it's how they implement it that is the big question. For example, what if they come out with a new law saying that all pensions (including SIPPS) and ISAs must hold 40% government bonds? Wouldn't surprise with the way things are going.

I have an old overseas pension.  Most of their funds now have a "sustainable" element.  Many of my funds were rebranded as such without any warning so, for example, my Latin America fund is now the Sustainable Latin America fund!  

Yes, in the UK they'll use your savings to fund green stuff in the absence of anything else (e.g. a growing tax base through real growth).  Their spending will bring in a period like when the German Social Democrats built all those autobahns, etc.  It will probably need paying for in blood too at some point.  Only question is when, and later, who's blood.

[Lightscribe]

The PM miners finally look like they’re reacting to the inflation news.

Got a cheeky final allocation of FRES at 780 odd last week.

The mighty Panther is up 9.48% in the past 5 days. The unbelievers will be punished accordingly.

[HousePriceMania]

That was a bit of a surprise.

 

 

Sold out at 320 a few weeks ago

Any idea what's going on, time to buy again ?

[Starsend]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

That was a bit of a surprise.

 

 

Sold out at 320 a few weeks ago

Any idea what's going on, time to buy again ?

I sold out at at 3.25 recently. I decided at the time that I would buy in again if they dipped back below 3.00. Nice big tranche this morning at 2.96.

Not sure there's anything major going on? Just the normal noise.

[JMD]

On 14/07/2021 at 16:13, HousePriceMania said:

Looking at all the graphs, info, numbers, lies, truths that are out there I have to conclude that we could easily see the mother of all collapses.

Imagine if something like an earthquake hit the US west coast, there are no end of events that could spark the mother of all crisis.

I would be looking more toward a 'political earthquake' - say something like a Chinese whistleblower/defector telling the CIA the bat-flu was released from the Wuhan labs on purpose.                                                                                                Brett Weinstein/Dark Horse pod cast, he's a biologist and is good at explaining how the covid virus is almost certainly man made, that it contains chemical markers developed by geneticists and not found in nature, plus in any case the virus itself has not been found anywhere outside of a lab - despite the MSM continuing to talk up the bat-crazy yarn. In fact Weinstein says HIV almost certainly came from Wuhan, something I'd not heard before and don't know the details of (btw he's not a conspiracist)... anyway there is a lot more political capital to come on these stories I think. 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

The PM miners finally look like they’re reacting to the inflation news.

Got a cheeky final allocation of FRES at 780 odd last week.

The mighty Panther is up 9.48% in the past 5 days. The unbelievers will be punished accordingly.

Im down 0.03% on the Mighty Panther,its a steaming pile really and i should sell it and buy a real miner,and yet i have a strange affection for it.Its so crap you get the feeling they will hit the best vein of silver in the world or something  

[Hancock]

28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im down 0.03% on the Mighty Panther,its a steaming pile really and i should sell it and buy a real company,and yet i have a strange affection for it.Its so crap you get the feeling they will hit the best vein of silver in the world or something  

Like INFA. 

[Lightscribe]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im down 0.03% on the Mighty Panther,its a steaming pile really and i should sell it and buy a real miner,and yet i have a strange affection for it.Its so crap you get the feeling they will hit the best vein of silver in the world or something  

The GME crowd on Reddit and biz etc, are turning their attention to PM miners in the squeeze silver movement more so now.

They seem to focus on minnow silver miners like Bayhorse Silver and Silver Elephant mining however. Hopefully an inflationary reaction upswing in silver from here on may cause some other ‘certain’ silver animal miner references will catch some of the retail investor wind as it gets a name drop here and there.

With a bit of meme action anything’s possible. 

[HousePriceMania]

US Lumber back to peak 1993 prices 

 

 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Like INFA. 

 

YES.

He's HAPPY. Because he bought INFA. 

[sancho panza]

@Cattle Prod

We've supposedly 'protected the NHS' this last year.I'll leave the comments to wittier minds than mine.

cross post from Sceptics thread

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57841889

West Midlands Ambulance Service has busiest day with 6.5k calls

An ambulance service said it has seen its busiest day to date receiving over 6,400 emergency calls.

On Monday, West Midlands Ambulance Service Trust said it had 6,406 emergency calls, 600 more than its previous record, set last week.

It comes as the trust is given more than £5.6m from NHS England to boost staff numbers ahead of winter.

Nathan Hudson, from the trust, said the money will help meet the "current demand pressure".

The trust said it has seen 19 of its 20 busiest days within the last month, with Monday having more calls than any New Years Eve, traditionally its busiest day.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/08/nhs-england-waiting-list-reaches-record-high-second-straight-month

NHS England waiting list reaches record high for second straight month

Experts warn 5.3m backlog could exacerbate burnout with staff facing ‘unprecedented levels of exhaustion’

The number of patients waiting for NHS treatment in England broke records for the second month in a row to reach 5.3 million, official figures show, prompting warnings the huge care backlog could exacerbate health service staff burnout.

It means the waiting list has grown by 606,501 over the last three months as patients have started using the NHS again, renewing fears it will hit 7 million before the end of the year.

The figures showed that two-thirds (67%) of patients received treatments within 18 weeks in May, far below the standard the NHS sets itself of treating 92% within this timeframe.