Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

Just now, Boon said:

TBH if most people are selling, the contrarian should be thinking of buying? 

Out of spare cash, only ladders I have left are skirting ladders 

[HousePriceMania]

32 minutes ago, Boon said:

TBH if most people are selling, the contrarian should be thinking of buying? 

 

I was just going to ask, is anyone buying oil shares today ?

When I posted the chart saying BP had gone under 300 I was thinking BP to 250 was my target to get back into shares.

If we get that BKK this year then it's fill your boots time.

[HousePriceMania]

16 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep - I've taken some more profits out of my Potash companies and wondering if I should top slice some Shell  If the 'vaccines' are failing as badly as I'm now also hearing anecdotally from friends who have been double jabbed but getting ill then we could be back to March 2020 pretty quickly at minimum but IMHO there's quite a high possibility the West is going to have many millions of cases of ADE and deaths in the next 6 - 12 months

I mentioned this lot last week...it's a bit of a gamble on helium if anyone wants to have a look



I'll hold my hands up and say I bought in around 5p.  

It has the potential to go to 300 or to 0.

[Noallegiance]

48 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep - I've taken some more profits out of my Potash companies and wondering if I should top slice some Shell  If the 'vaccines' are failing as badly as I'm now also hearing anecdotally from friends who have been double jabbed but getting ill then we could be back to March 2020 pretty quickly at minimum but IMHO there's quite a high possibility the West is going to have many millions of cases of ADE and deaths in the next 6 - 12 months

I'm keeping watch for the narrative to move to economic reasons to stay open and the previously hard-pushed 'we're all gonna die' narrative to be marginalised.

The fact that the general control of narrative occurs is now obvious to all but the most dim-witted.

It just takes time to turn the boat otherwise the charade is exposed.

[harp]

48 minutes ago, Loki said:

WHY THOUGH

David Cunter! Timing is perfect. Makes  money by being a controversial contrarian. PM wise, he’s a cock. 

[Popuplights]

15 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm keeping watch for the narrative to move to economic reasons to stay open and the previously hard-pushed 'we're all gonna die' narrative to be marginalised.

The fact that the general control of narrative occurs is now obvious to all but the most dim-witted.

It just takes time to turn the boat otherwise the charade is exposed.

Good post. I think they are finally realising that the Psyops has worked a bit too well, which is why we have the so-called Freedom day today, despite the wailings of the general population.

The only things that Johnson has said, that I agree with is the phrase, if not now, when. ?

 

 

 

 

 

[Hancock]

22 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

The only things that Johnson has said, that I agree with is the phrase, if not now, when. ?

He needs to tell us when, as the masked man at the checkout who just got me to put my food on the till then asked me to stand back 2 metres clearly thinks nothing has changed.

My brother is dealing with hotels in HK, Philippines, Singapore Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and several other nations in the region, and its full on lockdown in most these places, far stricter than us with no tourists arriving.

Must be close to 600 million in the region who are not out spending, or living anything close to a normal life ... and certainly no tourists arriving to fill their pockets.

Continued lockdowns has to be a dead cert for deflation.

[Barnsey]

Regarding Napier etc on robbing those with cash in the bank...Yes.

 

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Regarding Napier etc on robbing those with cash in the bank...Yes.

 

What the feck does he mean by "intangible investments"?  I know exactly what they are but he surely can't mean them.  Is he being illiterate?

PS:  There are a lot of these daft meaningless quotes around these days.  At least they don't write greeting cards!

[Majorpain]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

What the feck does he mean by "intangible investments"?  I know exactly what they are but he surely can't mean them.  Is he being illiterate?

I think he's saying we need more goodwill in the economy, then we can all get rich trading back and forth our goodwill at higher and higher prices.  Oh wait, that's housing!

[leonardratso]

 

[leonardratso]

ive just filled up the car and bought some bread and milk.

Went to pay but they wont take my intangible investment as payment, so i just shot the place up and did a runner.

Looks like they like tangible investments like buckshot instead.

[RickyBacker]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

I mentioned this lot last week...it's a bit of a gamble on helium if anyone wants to have a look



I'll hold my hands up and say I bought in around 5p.  

It has the potential to go to 300 or to 0.

I wanted to get a helium company a few years back and bought a company that was then known as 'Highland Natural Resources'. What an adventure that was... They found some helium, but they also had a patent on a method to prevent parent / child wells interacting with each other (shale oil) and drilled some shale wells in the US.

Long story short... the company (AIM) ended up giving up on the helium when they discovering nitrogen gas... which they then captured and used to grow cannabis. The company was then rebranded as a CPD company and sells smokes, chewing tobacco and gummies into the US and European markets. 

AIM - not for the faint hearted !!
* I actually made a significant profit on the rebranded CPD company (ZOE). Still hold a few shares for nostalgia, but definitely not investment advice!

Cheers for the heads up about HE1, had a nibble

[wherebee]

sold 10k worth of oilies.  4k profit from the buy.  It's a bit of profit taking, and added to the 2k I made from a sell & buy on shell last week means I'm feeling better about sitting out if the oilies continue to fall from here.

Remember we bought in at prices less than half today.  If they do shit the bed badly - lets say the western media decides the vaccines are bunk and every economy in the west is fucked - we could be buying back in again at those levels.

[planit]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

What the feck does he mean by "intangible investments"?  I know exactly what they are but he surely can't mean them.  Is he being illiterate?

PS:  There are a lot of these daft meaningless quotes around these days.  At least they don't write greeting cards!

They use this term ("intangible investment") in relation to investment for productivity gains for the future (that can't really be physically touched).

Normally people would just refer to it as 'investment' as it would contain tangible and reorganisation investment.

I believe he just mentions the intangible side because he is referring specifically to the technology and processes investment that companies carried out in response to the pandemic. Every company took a look at themselves and fast forwarded any efficiency and productivity gains they could. The economy should now benefit from this investment, a lot of which will not show under tangible assets (or intangible) in the accounts.

(BTW 'Goodwill' can't be capitalised in the accounts, it is just a product of buying another company out)

 

[leonardratso]

but if they bought technology or automated some processes via say robots, then surely thats now an asset for depreciation on the books/accounts?

Process/procedural change i understand may just lead to efficiencies and reduced costs or overhead so add to savings, i can see that being intangible (except to the bottom line notionally).

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, RickyBacker said:

I wanted to get a helium company a few years back and bought a company that was then known as 'Highland Natural Resources'. What an adventure that was... They found some helium, but they also had a patent on a method to prevent parent / child wells interacting with each other (shale oil) and drilled some shale wells in the US.

Long story short... the company (AIM) ended up giving up on the helium when they discovering nitrogen gas... which they then captured and used to grow cannabis. The company was then rebranded as a CPD company and sells smokes, chewing tobacco and gummies into the US and European markets. 

AIM - not for the faint hearted !!
* I actually made a significant profit on the rebranded CPD company (ZOE). Still hold a few shares for nostalgia, but definitely not investment advice!

Cheers for the heads up about HE1, had a nibble

I love reading the lse website forums for these type of shares.  You can see the boiler room types ramping the price, not sure who falls for it.

[headrow]

Not buying this dip , just sat here watching which gets hurt the most waiting for them to reach my buy point , if i miss out then i miss out.

 

Ashmore , Phoenix Group , DS Smith and AG Barr is what i want but i want them at least 20% cheaper than they are trading at today. I've got 6 months of dividends to reinvest , what i have learnt on my share dealing journey is to wait for the market to come to me instead of chasing it all over the place. I've not lost a nights sleep worrying about missing out on an opportunity but lost a few due to jumping in too soon.

[janch]

Here is Lyn Alden's latest newsletter.  She's definitely on board with @DurhamBorn's roadmap:

https://www.lynalden.com/july-2021-newsletter/

[ONC]

10 year US treasury just dropped to 1.2% 
 

Hitting David Hunter’s call when it was 1.75%.   Markets just not taking inflation threat seriously.  I think he then said back up to 2.5, then BK. Getting interesting 

 

 

[Hancock]

46 minutes ago, headrow said:

Not buying this dip , just sat here watching which gets hurt the most waiting for them to reach my buy point , if i miss out then i miss out.

 

Ashmore , Phoenix Group , DS Smith and AG Barr is what i want but i want them at least 20% cheaper than they are trading at today. I've got 6 months of dividends to reinvest , what i have learnt on my share dealing journey is to wait for the market to come to me instead of chasing it all over the place. I've not lost a nights sleep worrying about missing out on an opportunity but lost a few due to jumping in too soon.

Yes ive 200 grand to stick in oil shares, will wait for a BK or for them to get nearer to their recent lows. 

Shit is going to hit the fan if they dont fully unlock the world, or if there is a lockdown 4 when the weather gets cooler.

[headrow]

IBTL is running up nicely. Don't know who it was who tipped it on the site but i've done very well out of something i'd never have dreamed about investing in. Thank you to whoever it was. 

[sancho panza]

@Cattle Prod you did call for 10-15% a pull back here to keep the bull healthy.Good call.I didn't see it happening which is why it did.

Must say,this has been fortuitous for the basement dweller options traders given last week was the july expiry.I was sat on some nice profits on the tuesday that halevd on the wednesday.

13% pullback on the 5H chart WTI,pretty much the same on the dailies.

XOM Oct 60 1.35..........could get even cheaper if this run down continuesJsut sold 57.50's last week.

BP Oct 290 11.5 pence.??not a fan of the strike or the price.

BP Oct 300 at 8 pence,gets very interesting if it can get to 4.

RDSB 1250/1300....

idle hands etc....

 

[sancho panza]

51 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes ive 200 grand to stick in oil shares, will wait for a BK or for them to get nearer to their recent lows. 

Shit is going to hit the fan if they dont fully unlock the world, or if there is a lockdown 4 when the weather gets cooler.

Lockdown is unwinding here because the Toffs at CCHQ are starting to see the collateral damage it has caused.They won't have antoehr lcokdown without furlough and they won't furlough again because quite simply they can't afford to.

 

Even the hardest lockdown loons I know who were all about saving the NHS from the people it's meant to protect,are going quiet in the face of the record numbers queueing for treatment and trying to see their GP.

The farce over Rishi's being part of a new track n trace trial to avoid the pingdemic tells us they know the game's up.

and by the way,I know some proper lockdown loons.Shop in plastic gloves and all.....

[HousePriceMania]

21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Lockdown is unwinding here because the Toffs at CCHQ are starting to see the collateral damage it has caused.They won't have antoehr lcokdown without furlough and they won't furlough again because quite simply they can't afford to.

 

Even the hardest lockdown loons I know who were all about saving the NHS from the people it's meant to protect,are going quiet in the face of the record numbers queueing for treatment and trying to see their GP.

The farce over Rishi's being part of a new track n trace trial to avoid the pingdemic tells us they know the game's up.

and by the way,I know some proper lockdown loons.Shop in plastic gloves and all.....

Friend of mine was telling me at the weekend, Furlough has existed in Germany for decades.  When SME can keep their staff busy they furlough them ( 80% pay, say ) then bring them back when needed.

Is that true ?