Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Starsend]

29 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Lockdown is unwinding here because the Toffs at CCHQ are starting to see the collateral damage it has caused.They won't have antoehr lcokdown without furlough and they won't furlough again because quite simply they can't afford to.

 

Even the hardest lockdown loons I know who were all about saving the NHS from the people it's meant to protect,are going quiet in the face of the record numbers queueing for treatment and trying to see their GP.

The farce over Rishi's being part of a new track n trace trial to avoid the pingdemic tells us they know the game's up.

and by the way,I know some proper lockdown loons.Shop in plastic gloves and all.....

I went to Aldi an hour ago. They had a sign outside which basically said wear a mask or don't, whatevs man.

There must have been a hundred people in there of all ages. Aside from myself and one other young woman every single one of the tards had a mask on.

I was expecting some to continue wearing masks but was pretty shocked at how many.

[leonardratso]

they are protecting you.

You should have shot the place up and left without paying (patent pending).

[Hancock]

14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Lockdown is unwinding here because the Toffs at CCHQ are starting to see the collateral damage it has caused.They won't have antoehr lcokdown without furlough and they won't furlough again because quite simply they can't afford to.

Even the hardest lockdown loons I know who were all about saving the NHS from the people it's meant to protect,are going quiet in the face of the record numbers queueing for treatment and trying to see their GP.

The farce over Rishi's being part of a new track n trace trial to avoid the pingdemic tells us they know the game's up.

and by the way,I know some proper lockdown loons.Shop in plastic gloves and all.....

But the question is do you see this happening globally to send oil company prices high!

The countries i listed before have a very low percentage of people that have taken the vaccine ... or in the case of HK they dont trust the govt so barely anyone is taking it.

The govt was meant to have been skint in March 2020 yet have found £500 billion with £35bln of that for an APP, just thinking we get a winter lockdown so they can add to that £500bln or whatever sum theyre up to.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I went to Aldi an hour ago. They had a sign outside which basically said wear a mask or don't, whatevs man.

There must have been a hundred people in there of all ages. Aside from myself and one other young woman every single one of the tards had a mask on.

I was expecting some to continue wearing masks but was pretty shocked at how many.

That would annoy the hell out of me as well, but it's only day 1. Give it a week or 2, more and more people will start giving them up.

Got to say, it was nice seeing all the young people back in the nightclubs last night. One young bar maid on the telly today saying she was not bothered about no masks and thinks it should be down to everyone's personal choice. Thought she spoke more sense than the government has for the last 16 months.

[Talking Monkey]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

But the question is do you see this happening globally to send oil company prices high!

The countries i listed before have a very low percentage of people that have taken the vaccine ... or in the case of HK they dont trust the govt so barely anyone is taking it.

The govt was meant to have been skint in March 2020 yet have found £500 billion with £35bln of that for an APP, just thinking we get a winter lockdown so they can add to that £500bln or whatever sum theyre up to.

How the bloody hell did they spend 35bill on an app

[geordie_lurch]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

That would annoy the hell out of me as well, but it's only day 1. Give it a week or 2, more and more people will start giving them up.

Got to say, it was nice seeing all the young people back in the nightclubs last night. One young bar maid on the telly today saying she was not bothered about no masks and thinks it should be down to everyone's personal choice. Thought she spoke more sense than the government has for the last 16 months.

Make the most of it - you need to be double jabbed by end of September

 

[Hancock]

8 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

How the bloody hell did they spend 35bill on an app

Its not just any app, its an app that doesnt really work. I believe the Danes made theirs for £10 million.

There will be an inquiry, and all will be deemed to have been wonderful.

You remember the way people kicked off in the 1990s about 500 million being wasted on the Millennium dome ... it shows  the new levels they've taken their corruption.

Edit - i believe the number is £37bln for the track and trace app, not the mere 35.

https://committees.parliament.uk/work/906/covid19-test-track-and-trace-part-1/news/150988/unimaginable-cost-of-test-trace-failed-to-deliver-central-promise-of-averting-another-lockdown/

[sancho panza]

15 minutes ago, Hancock said:

But the question is do you see this happening globally to send oil company prices high!

The countries i listed before have a very low percentage of people that have taken the vaccine ... or in the case of HK they dont trust the govt so barely anyone is taking it.

The govt was meant to have been skint in March 2020 yet have found £500 billion with £35bln of that for an APP, just thinking we get a winter lockdown so they can add to that £500bln or whatever sum theyre up to.

The covid unwind will occur very fast.Countries will start breaking ranks because they want the employment.Turkey has already said they won't have covid passports.

It'll be the same with pubs that insist on monitoring people.In my gang,if one of us hasn't got a passport we'll just go somewhere else.These publicans will go bust quickly.

As for where they find the moeny,I jsut don't know.What I do know is that depsite a huge rise in cases and the hot air from the lockdown loons,they've still pushed ahead with 'freedom' day because tehy're seeing some figures that are worrying them,or they're looking at South Africa and thinking riots aren't good for property prices.

Either way.We're out,and they'll find a feeble illogical excuse to not take us back into it(illogical in the sense that it will contravene their previous lcokdown logic.)

[sancho panza]

10 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Make the most of it - you need to be double jabbed by end of September

 

II look forward they ban the 150,000 NHS jab dodgers and how that will impact their 5.3million (and growing) waiting list backlog .

There are a raft of legal issues stemming from the 2010 Equality act with banning people from premises particularly on disability(anaphalaxis) or religious grounds.

[Starsend]

30 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

they are protecting you.

You should have shot the place up and left without paying (patent pending).

Well I nearly threw an avocado at someone.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

I went to Aldi an hour ago. They had a sign outside which basically said wear a mask or don't, whatevs man.

There must have been a hundred people in there of all ages. Aside from myself and one other young woman every single one of the tards had a mask on.

I was expecting some to continue wearing masks but was pretty shocked at how many.

Iv joined this shop for NHS workers and council workers called The Company Shop in Darlington.Well my partner has.It gets in stock over runs from the supermarkets and if the weight is wrong or other things why they cant sell.Amazing value.Sainsbury's fresh medium chickens £2,Chicken fillets in breadcrumbs from Tesco 80p,they £3.50 in Tesco,Fillet Kievs £1,they £3.50.Even Aldi butter 50p,got the tray of that and froze them il make nations of pies.Fantastic place.Lots in there had masks on,probs NHS workers and council worried a gaffer saw them.I didnt of course and got a few looks,but that was from women so probably just fancied me 

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

How the bloody hell did they spend 35bill on an app

Their mates.

[Sugarlips]

21 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Well I nearly threw an avocado at someone.

Lucky you were not in the random sale items isle, those children’s snow goggles really launch.

[reformed nice guy]

43 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

That would annoy the hell out of me as well, but it's only day 1. Give it a week or 2, more and more people will start giving them up.

Got to say, it was nice seeing all the young people back in the nightclubs last night. One young bar maid on the telly today saying she was not bothered about no masks and thinks it should be down to everyone's personal choice. Thought she spoke more sense than the government has for the last 16 months.

One problem, a lag to use the DB term, is that in general older people are the ones with a higher disposable income and a significant percentage of them are scared shitless.

Younger people dont watch the BBC, dont buy newspapers but dont have as much cash to splurge.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, headrow said:

IBTL is running up nicely. Don't know who it was who tipped it on the site but i've done very well out of something i'd never have dreamed about investing in. Thank you to whoever it was. 

Not me, I never give tips!  I'm already 1.9% total portfolio value so I'm now in the deckchair for that one.  There was a buy signal in May21 on the daily, Jun21 on the weekly, and Jul21 on the monthly.  That's 12%, 12%, and 6%.  So I lost 6% playing the more certain monthly.  Not good so review time to consider going back to weekly data.  What I really need is a laddering approach based on the interplay between the weekly and monthly data.  As the the macro reasons why, not a clue but that's the way it is and a reason will be along soon!  Data is your friend.  Talk is cheap!

PS: VGOV and IBGL a little less clear but want to follow.  Key is to understand the underlying currency movements.

[BurntBread]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Friend of mine was telling me at the weekend, Furlough has existed in Germany for decades.  When SME can keep their staff busy they furlough them ( 80% pay, say ) then bring them back when needed.

Is that true ?

I don't know about Germany, but in the Netherlands if you are made redundant, the dole is 80% of your previous pay, for six months. I think it then gets pretty stingy. So, in some sense, it does behave a little like the COVID furlough here, but it's a permanent system, and obviously not actually furlough, because you have lost your job.

I think it provides a good safety net, rewards people for having contributed (i.e. paid taxes on high salaries), and doesn't encourage people to sit around indefinitely.

My guess is that Germany is similar, but they could have something like you say, with the firms having an option to re-hire. However that would seem to be beset with problems: what if you have got a job in the meantime? If getting a new job is an exemption to being forcibly re-hired, then I don't see the difference compared to the Dutch system.

[DurhamBorn]

My dads got Covid at the minute,he reckons he got it from the barmaid from the club who brings him his dinner on a sunday,he is 81 but says he had one rough night but a big swig of whiskey worked a treat.Now he gets the odd temp increase,he said after looking at the market today he wishes he hadnt had his jabs  ,loads and loads of people have it up here at the moment.Most of the factories are running on half staff.Looks to me like the government are letting it rip now knowing most in danger have been jabbed and getting it to run through all the younger people as well before winter.A few of my old workmates at GSK work in vaccines and they reckon right now is the best time in the year to let it run.Of course they wont admit to that as a few will die.

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My dads got Covid at the minute,he reckons he got it from the barmaid from the club who brings him his dinner on a sunday,he is 81 but says he had one rough night but a big swig of whiskey worked a treat.Now he gets the odd temp increase,he said after looking at the market today he wishes he hadnt had his jabs  ,loads and loads of people have it up here at the moment.Most of the factories are running on half staff.Looks to me like the government are letting it rip now knowing most in danger have been jabbed and getting it to run through all the younger people as well before winter.A few of my old workmates at GSK work in vaccines and they reckon right now is the best time in the year to let it run.Of course they wont admit to that as a few will die.

The schools around us last week or two have been sending classes by the truck load home.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The farce over Rishi's being part of a new track n trace trial to avoid the pingdemic tells us they know the game's up.

As I mentioned a few days ago - watch the narratives being played.  There's data and there's meta data (data about data).  Same with the news.  There's news and there's news about the news!

I reckon they're trying to pull people back from the ledge and normalise.  Maybe a collection of reasons but surely they went too far with the psyops, partly because they wanted to play with their new toys (like others did with the new "vaccine" tech) and partly because they did not appreciate how inherently malleable the general populace was.  There will be general smoke but that's the guts of it.  Also fits with the characteristic of the Boris regime ("court") of people being able to go off on one only to be reigned in much later.

That farce narrative with the pilot nonsense seemed more of a lead by example play to capture the anger and dissipate it by then yielding.  Takes the sting out of people.  Aka "a controlled demolition"!  Of course you need more than one narrative so I'll add a switch today in giving air time to a differences in talk between Starmer and the Cons.  The news actually played a soundbite of Starmer about being premature with the "relaxing" of lockdown, something that hasn't happened for a while.  Again, fosters a sense of normality (the old discourse).  I could also add the emerging psyops narratives themselves and the demonisation of the "Independent" SAGE, etc, plus the airtime given to Sir Ian Brady.

I'd like to see it as I have seen a few times in a prior life with the accountants moving in to deal with a failed newish CEO (Boris) who's run out of road but sadly that may just be a hope of mine.  It could equally be just a freeze-thaw-repeat tactic to wear down the populace (plus some more destabilising hypernormalisation).  It could also be quieting down one front in order to open a new one - the financial one!

We only get the news (narratives) they want us to get.  The trick is to reverse engineer that while staying sane!

[BurntBread]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My dads got Covid at the minute,he reckons he got it from the barmaid from the club who brings him his dinner on a sunday,he is 81 but says he had one rough night but a big swig of whiskey worked a treat.Now he gets the odd temp increase,he said after looking at the market today he wishes he hadnt had his jabs  ,loads and loads of people have it up here at the moment.Most of the factories are running on half staff.Looks to me like the government are letting it rip now knowing most in danger have been jabbed and getting it to run through all the younger people as well before winter.A few of my old workmates at GSK work in vaccines and they reckon right now is the best time in the year to let it run.Of course they wont admit to that as a few will die.

All the best to your dad, DB. He sounds like he will be fine, but keep an eye on him if he gets bad and is trying to tough it out. My sister's mother-in-law, 83, had it last year, and she had a list of cardiac and vascular problems as long as your arm, and got through OK, so fingers crossed.

If the policy now is letting it run through the non-vulnerable (which for crying out loud should have been the policy in April 2020), then they really need to make that public, so the truly vulnerable can choose to isolate if they want to.

Hopefully this will draw a line under the unethical lunacy of vaccinating the kids. I can't see what will persuade the powers that be to focus properly on therapeutics though, unless something awful happens like widespread ADE (and I guess the indications so far are that that won't happen, thank goodness).

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My dads got Covid at the minute,he reckons he got it from the barmaid from the club who brings him his dinner on a sunday,he is 81 but says he had one rough night but a big swig of whiskey worked a treat.Now he gets the odd temp increase,he said after looking at the market today he wishes he hadnt had his jabs  ,loads and loads of people have it up here at the moment.Most of the factories are running on half staff.Looks to me like the government are letting it rip now knowing most in danger have been jabbed and getting it to run through all the younger people as well before winter.A few of my old workmates at GSK work in vaccines and they reckon right now is the best time in the year to let it run.Of course they wont admit to that as a few will die.

My MIL was older than that and it all ended well for her (he strains to resist a MIL joke!).  The probabilities say this will run like other viruses and become more infectious but less harmful.  Could be that the shock that the vaccines are crap turns to joy that it becomes recognised it's not such a dangerous strain(s).  The big unknown however is the implications of introducing a "vaccine" (new tech, non sterilising) during the course of an active pandemic.  Macro wise, just keep riding the data.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

One problem, a lag to use the DB term, is that in general older people are the ones with a higher disposable income and a significant percentage of them are scared shitless.

Their decline in spending was going to happen anyway as they all retire.  It was mentioned on RealVision that the average Boomer age was 68 and retirees have a massive (60-70%?) reduction of spending in retirement.  The gap will have to be filled by fiscal, as discussed here.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Well I nearly threw an avocado at someone.

The type that shop in Aldi (me!) will not be offended by an avocado being thrown, rather than being spread on toast! 

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

The type that shop in Aldi (me!) will not be offended by an avocado being thrown!

you could have caught it on a piece of toast slowing it down with your huge trimmed beard.

[Noallegiance]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Make the most of it - you need to be double jabbed by end of September

 

Awesome. I go to none of those anyway.