Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bricormortis]

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

Portfolio has taken a real hit past two days. Down 7%. Worst hit since March 2020.

me too.  But I am OK with that, as I got 10k in oilies out before the drop and will buy back in if they go down to a level I like the smell of.

[HousePriceMania]

18 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

The schools around us last week or two have been sending classes by the truck load home.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-more-than-one-million-children-in-england-absent-from-school-last-week-over-virus-data-shows-12359744

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

So the question is, what next for policy?

Tight rope is getting narrower, Stagflation on side and deflation on the other?  I can't shake the feeling that its all bad choices from here.

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Portfolio has taken a real hit past two days. Down 7%. Worst hit since March 2020.

My ISA had been flat or minor drops for a while. SIPP rocketed ahead thanks to Peabody. Trading 212 NASDAQ CFD had been doing very nicely

[sancho panza]

16 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

A timely reminder that the average drawdown in times of oil backwardation is 18.7%. 14.3% on this one so far, and well overdue. Spreads have dropped a lot, but we are still in backwardation. Let's see what happens next...

Real yields broke that resistance. What say you, gold?

That's a really interesting chart ref backwardation/contango.I'll declare early in this psot we're buying some call options today,particualrly BP and XOM if I can get good prices,intersting to see XOM off it's lows yesterday.

I'll set two or three ladders as we could bounce hard here

I checked Q2 results due for Shell 27 july,XOM 30/7 BP 3/aug.

They've had a few motnhs of $75 oil..........I'll take my chances.

Ref the futures,I jsut don't know why -even allowing for population growth and an increase in demand from China/Indian mifddle classes-anyone would price 2026 at $51 given that the marginal supply of US shale will only kick in at $70/$80/we haevn't had a big find since guyana and all the other evidence you've citred off saudi not having more than 5mn bbpd of spare capacity and that's only for a few motnhs due to coning issues.

I've had a couple of successful squeezes on the options thus far,I'm looking at this and wondering if I'm the only thinking what I'm thinking.

Just closed out some XOM $57.50s last week,effectively buying them back for free....why wouldn't I?

 

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The case for a run up in the yellow stuff is well made here.Ill take my chances.....or idle hands will do some damage.

Look at the bottom Aug 20 which coincided with  $2000-...5th jan 21 was $1957

Measured from the Aug 7th high

 

decl:long the miners.

[Noallegiance]

I pin no colours to the mast with this post.

I simply make the observation - what is it with the start of the 1980s?!

I maintain that we are all linked in ways that we haven't even begun to comprehend. Earth, sea, sky, solar system, universe. 

Cyclical changes in weather, the moon, solar flares and human behaviour. There will be a link/links somewhere.

[Barnsey]

45 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Tight rope is getting narrower, Stagflation on side and deflation on the other?  I can't shake the feeling that its all bad choices from here.

I honestly don't know, the plunge in UST 10yr has been quite something. Refinance going to boom over the pond yet again after its brief hiatus...

 

[planit]

I feel that this wave will be over quicker than everyone thinks. Within a week we will see the beginning of reversal in cases. It might take a week extra for the 7 day average to turn down.

Government still lying, one of those people that stand up at the podiums said their model is showing a peak or a plateau of cases. What complete crap, show me any way anywhere where the cases go up exponentially and then stay there (new paradigm LOL) meaning their 'model' would not predict that.

 

Anyway, the world will be watching the UK so once our peak looks to be turning down with no Armageddon, it will give the markets and rest of the world confidence that there is nothing to worry about.

If I hadn't f**ked up so much last week I would have bought back in earlier today 

[DurhamBorn]

Does anyone know if French withholding tax is 12.8% for individuals?

Im thinking about buying Orange SA today as taking a lot of profits out of potash.

Whats your COMA on Orange @sancho panza ?

[planit]

15 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I pin no colours to the mast with this post.

I simply make the observation - what is it with the start of the 1980s?!

I maintain that we are all linked in ways that we haven't even begun to comprehend. Earth, sea, sky, solar system, universe. 

Cyclical changes in weather, the moon, solar flares and human behaviour. There will be a link/links somewhere.

 

This line might be a representation of world urban development more than anything else if it's true the temperature changes are not adjusted properly for changes in environmental development as is suggested.

Perhaps the rebuilding after the second world war stopped new development or something similar. Early 80's widespread recession?

[Barnsey]

32 minutes ago, planit said:

I feel that this wave will be over quicker than everyone thinks. Within a week we will see the beginning of reversal in cases. It might take a week extra for the 7 day average to turn down.

Government still lying, one of those people that stand up at the podiums said their model is showing a peak or a plateau of cases. What complete crap, show me any way anywhere where the cases go up exponentially and then stay there (new paradigm LOL) meaning their 'model' would not predict that.

 

Anyway, the world will be watching the UK so once our peak looks to be turning down with no Armageddon, it will give the markets and rest of the world confidence that there is nothing to worry about.

If I hadn't f**ked up so much last week I would have bought back in earlier today 

Really hope you're right, standing by to cancel my early Oct U.S. trip like...

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Measured from the 1960's low I think you're making the point that greta won't make in her and her people's grab for global power.

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I pin no colours to the mast with this post.

I simply make the observation - what is it with the start of the 1980s?!

I maintain that we are all linked in ways that we haven't even begun to comprehend. Earth, sea, sky, solar system, universe. 

Cyclical changes in weather, the moon, solar flares and human behaviour. There will be a link/links somewhere.

What this got me thinking, if a 1 degree rise in temperature sets us up for " climate catastrophy", were doomed any way because temperatures fluctuate over time. Makes Extinction Rebellion seem a bit similar in mindset to King Canute.

I think global warming is a thing, but wrong on time frames as evidenced by the predictions on poles melting by 2010 and so on. In any event realistically nothing much we can do about it short term, its a result of population growth.

[Barnsey]

There we are, fairly predictable.

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does anyone know if French withholding tax is 12.8% for individuals?

Im thinking about buying Orange SA today as taking a lot of profits out of potash.

Whats your COMA on Orange @sancho panza ?

They withheld 26.5% on my last Orange dividend. 😭  It's not in an ISA or SIPP.

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Tight rope is getting narrower, Stagflation on side and deflation on the other?  I can't shake the feeling that its all bad choices from here.

nice description there MP.

Check this out....what mispricing of risk....???

This is going to be horrendous when it blows

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does anyone know if French withholding tax is 12.8% for individuals?

Im thinking about buying Orange SA today as taking a lot of profits out of potash.

Whats your COMA on Orange @sancho panza ?

A decent 20 with the proviso that the balance sheet has Scottish Play type aspects.BS score in red means 75% of net assets are goodwill,green means more than 50%.I've had a quick reassess and the system doesn't allow me to give them a higher score than 5 but the FCF yield is 16% on the full year results....

Same with a lot of these though balance sheet wise but if you dig deeper then you may find they are priced at very advantageous terms for the company.

Reality is they were kicking off a lot of FCF last year.

Company	Share price	Date	Chart	Inc	BS	CF	Sector	SCS
Airtel Africa	GBP 0.7785	10/06/21	3	4	1	5	4	17
Americ Movil	MXN 15.78	10/06/21	1	3	1	5	4	14
AT&T	USD 30.04	17/03/21	3	1	2	5	4	15
BT	GBP 1.75	01/06/21	4	4	2	3	4	17
Deutsche tel	E 16.655	17/03/21	1	3	1	3	4	12
Drillisch	E26.36	10/06/21	3	3	5	3	4	18
KDDI	Y 3632	10/06/21	1	3	3	5	4	16
Koninklijke	E 2.923	17/03/21	4	3	2	5	4	18
KT	Korea 26900	17/03/21	3	4	3	5	4	19
LM Ericsson B	Skr 115.80	18/03/21	2	3	2	3	4	14
MTN	ZAR 8809	18/03/21	3	4	2	5	4	18
Nippon Telegraph	Y2874	10/06/21	4	4	3	4	4	19
Nokia	E 3.505	18/03/21	4	1	3	3	4	15
Orange	E9.42	20/07/21	4	5	2	5	4	20
Proximus	E 18.29	18/03/21	4	4	2	3	4	17
Singtel	S$ 2.43	01/06/21	4	2	4	4	4	18
SK Telecom	KRW 334000	11/06/21	1	4	3	4	4	16
Swisscom	CHF 489.1	18/03/21	2	3	3	3	4	15
Telecom Italia	E 0.4646	18/03/21	4	5	2	5	4	20
Telefonica	E 4.077	18/03/21	5	3	2	5	4	19
Telefonica Brazil	BRL 47.45	10/06/21	5	3	4	5	4	21
Telefonica Deutsch	E2.264	10/06/21	5	3	3	5	4	20
Telenor	Nkr 151.05	18/03/21	2	4	1	2	4	13
Telia	Skr 37.06	18/03/21	3	1	2	4	4	14
Telkom Indonesia	IDR 3480	10/06/21	1	3	3
Telstra	AUD 3.19	18/03/21	4	3	2	4	4	17
TIM SA	YSD 12.83	10/06/21	4	3	4	5	4	20
Telus
T-Mobile	USD 146.89	10/06/21	1	2	2	1	4	10
Turkcell	USD 5.55	18/03/21	5	5	2	5	4	21
Verizon	USD 55.83	18/03/21	1	3	2	3	4	13
Vodafone	GBP 1.28	01/06/21	5	2	3	5	4	19

 

[Democorruptcy]

6 hours ago, headrow said:

I was going to pull the trigger on BAG a while ago but then found they had lost the contract with Rockstar for the cans of energy drinks , i worked in retail for 20 years and when we ordered from Barr back then cans of Rockstar were easily a good 50% of the order. It spooked me and i didn't buy. 

 

I live off my dividends so that is the number one criteria to me when investing , i would never buy anything without a yield but Barr have promised they are coming back. I have a few in my portfolio who aren't paying at the moment , Carnival , Centrica , Go Ahead and Stagecoach. I really should dump them but hopefully in 2/3 years time they too are in a position to resume payouts. Last year i took a 10k haircut on what i earn from my dividends but with the amount of shares i bought at the lows of Spring 2020 i am well on the way to recouping that this tax year. I only work cash in hand jobs now if i have to and the amount of work i get offered is unbelievable , helping a builder last week , £100 for 4 hours work 9 till 1. Tesco is about the only place left taking cash so i've been going in and spending £100 on booze every day. I retired 5 years ago at 48 , being single there was no point in carrying on working , i have no intentions of spending shitloads doing up a house , driving a fancy car , expensive holidays. I live very frugally and love it , i deleted my CV 5 years ago and haven't regretted it once. I would say i am totally unemployable in a job that involves dealing with people now. Which is a great comfort to me.

This section of the forum isn't hidden, people don't even need to be members and logged in to read it. Cut a bit out of the quote.

Ditto the unemployable now and glad about it. CV already had gaps to try explain but nothing now for 18 years!

[leonardratso]

uncle dave inbound;

 

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Measured from the 1960's low I think you're making the point that greta won't make in her and her people's grab for global power.

Wow

[JFK]

I'll be the first to admit that I understand economics only a very rudimentary level and certain not the extent of some of the posters on this thread but thought I'd share a very interesting observation about the current financial landscape of the USA and fed regarding money printing, inflation and their strategy, copying and pasting from a forum post and linking a video.

It suggests that the Fed is going to try and use the Reverse Repo market to fight inflation, what are people's thoughts?
 

Quote

How the FED is going to fight Inflation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8NaWeRZzk

I'm linking to this video from George Gammon regarding how the Reverse Repo market is being used by the FED to create deflationary pressure to offset inflation.

I've previously explained in videos and elsewhere how the FED was created to allow the government to tax people without them realizing they're being taxed so that the people don't riot as the government struggles to pay for the Welfare State. As the Welfare State goes bankrupt and the government has to pay for more and more spending via inflation, the new risk isn't of riots, but of high inflation causing panics and riots themselves.

So the FED now has to add another layer onto the "trick" to get the people to pay for their own shit without rioting or panicking, and this is the Reverse Repo Market where the banks give their money to the FED because interest rates are so low that they can't make anything on their deposits, which removed money from the financial system and serves to reverse the increased money supply that causes inflation.

I'll break it down...

1. The government needs money to pay for welfare, but it can't raise taxes or cut spending, so it prints money to pay for it.

2. The increase in the money supply causes inflation.

3. The inflation gets bad and people demand the government lower prices.

3A: If the government listens to the people and institute price controls, it will cause famine and an economic and social collapse.

3B: The FED can use reverse-repo to shrink the money supply which will reverse-inflation (hopefully) without raising interest rates! This has never been attempted on this scale before.

4. If this works, the FED has done the impossible, by creating a new "magic trick" to fool the retarded welfare-demanding masses into paying for their welfare with inflation, but preventing hyperinflation and famine as so many countries have fallen prey to in the past.

5. However, if this doesn't work. The lack of liquidity in the banking system could cause an economic collapse on its own as people won't have access to credit, even with low interest rates. Note: You're seeing this happening right now with real estate. There are people trying to get real-estate who are being turned down for mortgages because they have less-than-perfect credit despite rates being at historic lows. This is what the future might look like: extremely low rates, but extremely high lending standards due to a limited supply of dollars.

6. The end result will likely be the nationalization of the banking system similarly to how student loans were nationalized. When nobody can qualify for a loan, the people will demand the government take over the system and give them free money, which will undo the little magic trick the FED successfully created.

7. Alternatively, the FED can use the new cryptocurrency they're making to replace the current banking system with a digital one that eliminates commercial banks, and where everything is run through the FED and the government.

8. At this point, the United States is now China with a Fascist economy, with two classes: The ruling class, and the dependent slave class.

I haven't worked out exactly what the play is here, as this is largely uncharted waters, and if the entire economy goes down or is nationalized, there is no asset class that you can buy that will protect you. I'm working on it, but if you guys have any ideas or thoughts, let me know.

 

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does anyone know if French withholding tax is 12.8% for individuals?

Im thinking about buying Orange SA today as taking a lot of profits out of potash.

Whats your COMA on Orange @sancho panza ?

I mentioned upthread that the tax on my Total Energies seemed to be 30%!  I've got a note that it is 28%.  So to ensure parity on the divs with say the UK, would need to be 4.17% versus 3%.  Good if someone could confirm.

Indeed confirm the following I prepared for my use (as it could easily be wrong):

[MrXxxx]

Quick Newbie question regarding Stop Loss and Stop Limit orders.

1. I know that a disadvantage with Stop Loss orders is that if the market volatile they can be triggered [and sold] at a price below that specified, how often and by how much [%] does it usually happen?

2. I assume that whilst the advantage of a Stop Limit order is that it avoids the issue in 1. above, is the disadvantage that in such a situation your stock is not sold as it didn't 'stop' at your Limit price?

3. Do most brokers usually charge for these type of orders and how are they usually charged i.e. % or fixed fee, and how long can they remain active for?

Thanks.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I mentioned upthread that the tax on my Total Energies seemed to be 30%!  I've got a note that it is 28%.  So to ensure parity on the divs with say the UK, would need to be 4.17% versus 3%.  Good if someone could confirm.

Indeed confirm the following I prepared for my use (as it could easily be wrong):

Can we clarify if these apply within ISA/SIPPS or is it just a standard trading account?