Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Froggy2000]

I'm topping up my isa this month and looking for value.  I can't get Tim or Telefonica brasil with AJ Bell unfortunately, but Yamana looks pretty good value here.

Im close to pulling the trigger but wondered what peoples thoughts are on the pros/cons of the US vs Canadian listing?

I've ruled the LSE listing out due to lack of volume, but I'm not sure of the implications of choosing the US vs Canadian listing.

DurhamBorn.  I remember you saying you used the Canadian exchange for these.  Can you explain your reasoning?

I'm getting to grips with these things slowly but I've still got a lot to learn.  Especially when it comes to shares listed on multiple exchanges, interpreting ISIN info etc.  I'm going to look for some learning material and will report back if I find anything!

[HousePriceMania]

Anyone buying Easyjet shares ?

Friend of mine says their flight from France to the UK has just been cancelled, so queried them on that...seems they must be mistaken....

[DoINeedOne]

16 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

I'm topping up my isa this month and looking for value.  I can't get Tim or Telefonica brasil with AJ Bell unfortunately, but Yamana looks pretty good value here.

Im close to pulling the trigger but wondered what peoples thoughts are on the pros/cons of the US vs Canadian listing?

I've ruled the LSE listing out due to lack of volume, but I'm not sure of the implications of choosing the US vs Canadian listing.

DurhamBorn.  I remember you saying you used the Canadian exchange for these.  Can you explain your reasoning?

I'm getting to grips with these things slowly but I've still got a lot to learn.  Especially when it comes to shares listed on multiple exchanges, interpreting ISIN info etc.  I'm going to look for some learning material and will report back if I find anything!

I know with HL i can only buy the London listing now it was only the Canadian listing before so hopefully volume on the London listing should start to increase

[Castlevania]

21 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

I'm topping up my isa this month and looking for value.  I can't get Tim or Telefonica brasil with AJ Bell unfortunately, but Yamana looks pretty good value here.

Im close to pulling the trigger but wondered what peoples thoughts are on the pros/cons of the US vs Canadian listing?

I've ruled the LSE listing out due to lack of volume, but I'm not sure of the implications of choosing the US vs Canadian listing.

DurhamBorn.  I remember you saying you used the Canadian exchange for these.  Can you explain your reasoning?

I'm getting to grips with these things slowly but I've still got a lot to learn.  Especially when it comes to shares listed on multiple exchanges, interpreting ISIN info etc.  I'm going to look for some learning material and will report back if I find anything!

The exchange used doesn’t make much difference. It’s the same share you’ll purchase. In theory the higher the volume the tighter the bid offer spreads will be. In practice any gains from a tighter spread will probably be outweighed by currency conversion costs.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its as clear as day to a macro person what they are doing and its simply to lift everything up by around 30%,liquidity.Thats the level where tax should increase faster than spending.However that relies on governments keeping public sector pensions,pay and all benefits much below real inflation.The UK is in such a bad position because of the amount of public sector handouts.There is a huge structural problem there.

Wages are going up arent they.We have said it all along,even when it seemed everyone else was saying it was going to be mass unemployment and collapsing wages.In simple terms shipping items,especially bulky items a long way has dozens of inflation touch points.In a reflation each one adds its own costs.Suddenly  its much cheaper to pay a £14 an hour wage here,than a £6 one in China.Small items of course no so much.Its all about unit cost in the shipping/mocing etc.

This is why iv been positioning into sectors that can hopefully leverage the inflation,or at worst keep pace.

The key is patience and confidence.Some sectors will pop faster than others,as @sancho panza mentioned a prime example in Cameco.

Its fascinating watching this cycle turn and build,and the fact most still dont accept it.Markets will keep shaking people out though and top slicing when you can and adding again or others on pullbacks would likely add to gains,if your good at it.

 

Events are certainly happening(unraveling?) just as you and your right-on road-map predicted DB. Fascinating to see unfold, although as i'm also heavily invested in the predicted outcomes, its also a very nail-biting ride.   

Someone on here, some time back (can't recall who it was), said that visiting/reading here was like having a ring-side seat to 'history unfolding'... actually i think i may have misquoted/scrambled him/her (apologies) - however, i'm sure the sentiment rings true with all you guys. 

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Thanks for psoting that .I won't subscribe to FT for a variety of political reasons and also that it isn't generally worth reading.

 

As an aside SP, your comment about the FT made me recall something which happened in my first job some 30 years ago... A group of graduate trainees, as part of their induction, were spending time in each of our company depts., sorry to say - but all smug, arrogant types (not meant as a major criticism btw, as i am a bit smug/arrogant my self!)... Anyway one of the graduates was a real lefty, however he bought in a copy of the Times to read every day. The thing is that he loved explaining to everyone who queried his choice (back in the halcyon days when such comments were not taken personally!) that the Times was actually quiet a left-wing paper!! Proving to me at least that politics, institutions, etc, have been unraveling for many many years, without most of the populous noticing?

 

[Froggy2000]

15 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The exchange used doesn’t make much difference. It’s the same share you’ll purchase. In theory the higher the volume the tighter the bid offer spreads will be. In practice any gains from a tighter spread will probably be outweighed by currency conversion costs.

Thanks CV.  Is there any differences with withholding taxes?  Can we avoid them by using the LSE listing?

[DurhamBorn]

43 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The exchange used doesn’t make much difference. It’s the same share you’ll purchase. In theory the higher the volume the tighter the bid offer spreads will be. In practice any gains from a tighter spread will probably be outweighed by currency conversion costs.

Do you understand German witholding tax .I notice it says 15% with treaty so i guess divi from Telefonica D would see a 15% tax,but it also says 10% for valid pension scheme,so im wondering if in a SIPP it would be zero.Most brokers are a nightmare trying to get these answers from.

Notice today Telefonica D is up 3.5% among the big falls everywhere,and @sancho panza coma scores top rated have outperformed the sector since he put them up.I own a lot of BT,but sold a small tranche at 2.04p and added to other money into Telefonica D and Brasil and an outperformance since.Seem like a very useful tool in broad sectors,even just to use to maybe slice ones that have ran and the score has dropped and increase or open new positions in ones that rate top 4 in the scores.

[M S E Refugee]

 

[Barnsey]

15 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

It's most certainly coming. Andy Haldane had an insightful conversation with Merryn Somerset Webb about the possibility of 'Britcoin', and my understanding was that adoption would be primarily taken up by the young (obviously) and the rest will be tempted by very attractive interest rates. If we didn't want this to happen then we should never have embraced contactless payment, social media, and online shopping. People en mass will enable this change, will seem great and rewarding at first by design, then naturally becoming an integral part of our lives, especially in the next recession, whatever that'll look like. Personalised taxation, stimulus etc. The anti crypto transparency appeal of CBDC will push it further to the fore.

[feed]

3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

It's most certainly coming. Andy Haldane had an insightful conversation with Merryn Somerset Webb about the possibility of 'Britcoin', and my understanding was that adoption would be primarily taken up by the young (obviously) and the rest will be tempted by very attractive interest rates. If we didn't want this to happen then we should never have embraced contactless payment, social media, and online shopping. People en mass will enable this change, will seem great and rewarding at first by design, then naturally becoming an integral part of our lives, especially in the next recession, whatever that'll look like. Personalised taxation, stimulus etc. The anti crypto transparency appeal of CBDC will push it further to the fore.

Maybe but so what.  It’ll just be what you pay your taxes and buy your groceries with. 

The state will not decriminalise drugs and people that trade drugs are wealthy and powerful.  Secondary and black market currencies will proliferate and it’s not like the police and legal system can cope with the drug trade today.  
 

[Barnsey]

Insane move:

In other news, funny how these warnings are now coming out once the economy is back on its feet. I'll say it again, crypto was allowed to run to act as a volatility sponge (truck run off ramp analogy).

 

[MrXxxx]

43 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

Thanks CV.  Is there any differences with withholding taxes?  Can we avoid them by using the LSE listing?

Hi @froggy if you search my name within this thread I asked and others answered this....it was about 3-6 months ago.

[MrXxxx]

15 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

It's most certainly coming. Andy Haldane had an insightful conversation with Merryn Somerset Webb about the possibility of 'Britcoin', and my understanding was that adoption would be primarily taken up by the young (obviously) and the rest will be tempted by very attractive interest rates. If we didn't want this to happen then we should never have embraced contactless payment, social media, and online shopping. People en mass will enable this change, will seem great and rewarding at first by design, then naturally becoming an integral part of our lives, especially in the next recession, whatever that'll look like. Personalised taxation, stimulus etc. The anti crypto transparency appeal of CBDC will push it further to the fore.

Agree 100%, and those `blindly`following it at the moment will eventually be `punished` and realise it wasn't such a good idea...I am resisting it at all cost by not making such payments, but realise I am like Canute trying to hold back the tide!

[Froggy2000]

8 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Hi @froggy if you search my name within this thread I asked and others answered this....it was about 3-6 months ago.

Thanks.  Will have a look!

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Froggy2000 said:

Thanks CV.  Is there any differences with withholding taxes?  Can we avoid them by using the LSE listing?

None. It’s a Canadian company, so Canadian withholding taxes apply.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Castlevania]

59 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Do you understand German witholding tax .I notice it says 15% with treaty so i guess divi from Telefonica D would see a 15% tax,but it also says 10% for valid pension scheme,so im wondering if in a SIPP it would be zero.Most brokers are a nightmare trying to get these answers from.

Notice today Telefonica D is up 3.5% among the big falls everywhere,and @sancho panza coma scores top rated have outperformed the sector since he put them up.I own a lot of BT,but sold a small tranche at 2.04p and added to other money into Telefonica D and Brasil and an outperformance since.Seem like a very useful tool in broad sectors,even just to use to maybe slice ones that have ran and the score has dropped and increase or open new positions in ones that rate top 4 in the scores.

Expect to pay the highest rate, and then be pleasantly surprised if lower

[ONC]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Insane move:

In other news, funny how these warnings are now coming out once the economy is back on its feet. I'll say it again, crypto was allowed to run to act as a volatility sponge (truck run off ramp analogy).

 

David Hunter Called this move very well.

Especially at the time the 10year was at 1.75% and everybody saw it moving a lot higher, he called 1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

[Loki]

Quote

 

Shell and Deutsche Telekom agree to advance digital innovation in pursuit of climate goals

8 July, 2021

Memorandum of understanding signed to accelerate transitions to net zero

Shell supplies renewable energy to T-Mobile US

Deutsche Telekom engineers to install more than 10,000 electric vehicle chargers in Germany

The Shell Gas & Power Developments BV (Shell) and T-Systems International GmbH (T-Systems), Deutsche Telekom's corporate customers arm, have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to advance digital innovation as both companies accelerate their transitions to net-zero emissions.

The MOU builds on an existing technological relationship between Shell and T-Systems. Under the terms of the agreement the two companies will:
Pursue the net-zero goals of both companies, their supply chains and customers Collaborate on innovations and services to accelerate Shell’s digital transformation

Work together to identify opportunities to co-invest and participate in new business models focused on the decarbonisation of society

To accelerate the transition to net zero, Shell is supplying renewable energy to T-Systems sister company, T-Mobile US, which is working towards a goal of operating on 100% renewable energy by the end of 2021.

In turn, NewMotion and ubitricity, subsidiaries of Shell which provide electric vehicle (EV) charging solutions across Europe, have awarded T-Systems a contract for Deutsche Telekom field engineers to install more than 10,000 EV chargers in Germany over the next three years.

The collaboration on innovations and services, reflected in the renewed global master services agreement entered into between Shell and T-Systems in 2020, will see Shell’s current Dynamic Hosting Services solution replaced with the next version of Private Cloud.

Both companies will also aim to deepen their IT products and service capabilities and explore new areas of digital innovation, including Hybrid and Edge Computing, which are different forms of data storage, as well as 5G connectivity. Shell has also installed immersion cooling technology for greater computing and energy efficiency in one of the T-Systems data centres in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Deutsche Telekom and Shell are also exploring the viability of smart city solutions, aimed at helping cities decarbonise and providing aggregated city data. For example, “Citykey”, which could deliver EV-charging and mobility data on an easy-to-use app. The two companies are also exploring the potential of smart lighting projects with streetlight-based EV-charging possibilities.

“We are delighted to deepen our relationship with Deutsche Telekom and help the company to pursue its net-zero pledge while progressing our own target to be a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050, in step with society,” said Elisabeth Brinton, Executive Vice President Renewables & Energy Solutions at Shell. “Getting society to net zero will require unprecedented levels of collaboration.”

Adel Al-Saleh, Deutsche Telekom board member and CEO of T-Systems, said: “We are committed to acting responsibly along our entire value chain and working together with our clients is pivotal in this. No individual and no company can solve the climate challenge alone. This is why we have put sustainability at the core of our strategy as we aim to become the leading European full IT-service provider. This newly signed MOU allows Shell and Deutsche Telekom to leverage their long-term collaboration, teaming up in new areas that will benefit society.”

 

 

 

Oilies, telecoms, climate wank, society "benefits" it's got it all!

[planit]

US Crude draw was 6.9mb which continues the current trend

Oil Prices Rise As EIA Data Beats Expectations

 

 

I modified the graph they produce to remove last years unusual stock increases (the 2021 grey area on the right now matches the 2020 one to the left).

 

Unless there is a lot of crude on its way to the US the graph will look interesting in 2 weeks time.

 

Crude imports don't seem to be ramping up to make up the shortfall either:

[HousePriceMania]

Is this significant ?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/wells-fargo-credit/wells-fargo-to-close-all-personal-lines-of-credit-cnbc-idUSL3N2OK3GO

 

"Wells Fargo to close all personal lines of credit - CNBC"

"Customers have been given a 60-day notice that their accounts will be shuttered, according to the report."

 

Should I start shorting stuff ?

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

 

 

Oilies, telecoms, climate wank, society "benefits" it's got it all!

I now know the cynicism that soviet citizens must have felt when they were told their potato ration was cut again as the last sacrifice needed (again) to bring about utopian communism.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is this significant ?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/wells-fargo-credit/wells-fargo-to-close-all-personal-lines-of-credit-cnbc-idUSL3N2OK3GO

 

"Wells Fargo to close all personal lines of credit - CNBC"

"Customers have been given a 60-day notice that their accounts will be shuttered, according to the report."

 

Should I start shorting stuff ?

Is that overdrafts or something else?

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, feed said:

Maybe but so what.  It’ll just be what you pay your taxes and buy your groceries with. 

The state will not decriminalise drugs and people that trade drugs are wealthy and powerful.  Secondary and black market currencies will proliferate and it’s not like the police and legal system can cope with the drug trade today.  
 

It will be handy for them to apply a negative interest rate.