Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Talking Monkey]

On 04/07/2021 at 09:08, BurntBread said:

The surplus energy articles are nice, although always just a minor variation on things they have said already.

I do wonder though whether they are being a bit blinkered in their own way? For example, even in their own terms, we don't really inhabit an "energy economy", but an "energy-and-technology" economy, and technological advances can let us exploit surplus energy more efficiently (as a trivial example, think of LED bulbs replacing incandescent; although [Jevons' paradox] we tend to use these advances to use more energy than before; but in extremis we could imagine reducing our energy usage while keeping up our standard of living).

I also don't remember a detailed discussion on nuclear energy, which has a pretty high EROEI.

Overall, I'm guessing we might avoid their dire prediction of discretionary income falling to zero in the mid 2030's ... but I can certainly recognise the broad thesis of average prosperity falling from now on.

I see your point BB that they are being blinkered in their own way. Though when taken alongside the various strands discussed here and what we see in everyday life then a substantial decline in discretionary spend seems inevitable, though I agree falling to zero by late 2030s seems a bit dramatic.

[nirvana]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dis-inflation is slowing of inflation,not deflation and since 82 thats what we have had

yes I said slowing, dunno what you're saying man! Inflation has been going bonkers since the 80s, that's why the place is a bizarre mix of

'Mr paranoid whitey man in his flash shiny motor, don't pick up hitchers cos they might put a bit of brown fluff on your precious car seat'

'Mrs fat arse, talk shite on boomerbook cos I've now got 2 x BTL properties'

AND no they won't tax the 1% cos it's a game of 'fuck the middle class and shit all over their offspring'

The government (left or right) AND the BANKER SCUM really does think we're some sort of smelly thing like that which gets stuck to the bottom of yer shoe 

[nirvana]

PS I'm happy with a 1% PA money supply increase BUT it's OFF THE FOOKING SCALE!!!

what's that annually?

PS for noobs, the FED hasn't got just $7700 in the bank, that's in BILLIONS

there are 12 zeros in a TRILLION

it is a big number 

Note to self: DUDE CALM DOWN, it's all irrelevant to your irrelevant existance 

 

[MrXxxx]

42 minutes ago, nirvana said:

All caused by TOO MUCH PRINTING!

All caused by moving away from the gold standard.

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

All caused by moving away from the gold standard.

Nixon the war monger did it, gotta fund more wars, ALL WARS ARE BANKER WARS 

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, nirvana said:

yes I said slowing, dunno what you're saying man! Inflation has been going bonkers since the 80s, that's why the place is a bizarre mix of

'Mr paranoid whitey man in his flash shiny motor, don't pick up hitchers cos they might put a bit of brown fluff on your precious car seat'

'Mrs fat arse, talk shite on boomerbook cos I've now got 2 x BTL properties'

AND no they won't tax the 1% cos it's a game of 'fuck the middle class and shit all over their offspring'

The government (left or right) AND the BANKER SCUM really does think we're some sort of smelly thing like that which gets stuck to the bottom of yer shoe 

Not in goods it hasnt.Thats how they have managed to disguise it until now.The middle class are the victims yes,or more actually the children of the middle class.However the real victims are the working working class.Those who actually go to work and dont have parents with capital or state final salary pensions etc.Its them who have had the lower rung houses removed from them,pensions,wages increasing with RPI+ etc.

The public keep voting for change, but are ignored.Lets see what happens over the next few years as CBs have no choice but to pull back.

[DurhamBorn]

39 minutes ago, nirvana said:

PS I'm happy with a 1% PA money supply increase BUT it's OFF THE FOOKING SCALE!!!

what's that annually?

PS for noobs, the FED hasn't got just $7700 in the bank, that's in BILLIONS

there are 12 zeros in a TRILLION

it is a big number 

Note to self: DUDE CALM DOWN, it's all irrelevant to your irrelevant existance 

 

About 30% pa flat,compounding its about 16%pa increase 

[ThoughtCriminal]

More in one year than the previous 20 combined. 

 

I can't escape the feeling that things are about to go tits up in a spectacular way. 

[Bricormortis]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

More in one year than the previous 20 combined. 

 

I can't escape the feeling that things are about to go tits up in a spectacular way. 

 

[Bricormortis]

 I am less sure of a crash this year. Bubbles can get called way too early. Was listening to a Leslie Grantham video and it credited him with calling out the dot com implosion 3 years before it actually happened !

Rotation out of growth stocks into commodities is quite possible. If / when DXY gets around 88 metals will wake up.

Im not posting much currently, leaving it to the clever people atm, feeling quite reflective.

[nirvana]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Not in goods it hasnt.Thats how they have managed to disguise it until now

ONLY cos the CORPORATE NEOLIBERAL CUNTS outsourced all their jobs to wee chinaman!!

And who helped em? those BANKER CUNTS AGAIN! 

[Sugarlips]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

About 30% pa flat,compounding its about 16%pa increase 

I believe you are inadvertently saying buy more silver whilst prices are suppressed.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Sugarlips said:

I believe you are inadvertently saying buy more silver whilst prices are suppressed.

that's a sore point with me, I bought a shitload o that stuff and the price has been going down ever since.....off to check the price....I won't be back for a while cos I'll be crying 

[DurhamBorn]

47 minutes ago, nirvana said:

ONLY cos the CORPORATE NEOLIBERAL CUNTS outsourced all their jobs to wee chinaman!!

And who helped em? those BANKER CUNTS AGAIN! 

Exactly,and that is starting to reverse.They are making TVs again 1 mile from my house,washing machines 3 miles.Inflation adds in at each point,so long supply chains get smashed.The lorry from the Chinese factory,the ship,everything.Thats why Nissan are building everything around their factory including the battery plant.

You havent posted a fit woman for ages by the way 

 

Guess what the below is,its a miracle of a type 

 

 

[Don Coglione]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,and that is starting to reverse.They are making TVs again 1 mile from my house,washing machines 3 miles.Inflation adds in at each point,so long supply chains get smashed.The lorry from the Chinese factory,the ship,everything.Thats why Nissan are building everything around their factory including the battery plant.

You havent posted a fit woman for ages by the way 

 

Guess what the below is,its a miracle of a type 

 

 

I know what that is, but I dare not speak it aloud!

I only wish mine was that colour...

[nirvana]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Guess what the below is,its a miracle of a type 

 

 

dunno, current cuntrica price? lol

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I know what that is, but I dare not speak it aloud!

I only wish mine was that colour...

ha correct,however thats just my SIPP,my ISA holding is a horrid red.

[No One]

Can some one give me an overview of the Centrica meme? I've been here for a while but back then I didn't have an investment account, fortunately it seems.

 

Did centrica stock go to shit?

[leonardratso]

yes

check it out, its awesome....

[No One]

Jesus christ, how did they manage to do that?

[leonardratso]

Just now, No One said:

Jesus christ, how did they manage to do that?

kept getting sacked down disproportionately by tariff caps, seemed to happen every time the govt announced a new one, i suspect it was more than that though, BG went thru a period of being the worst supplier - they seemed to be following the M&S or Boots model of retailing, being the most expensive for exactly the same product as the rest and trying to cater to a higher class of customer, either thst or they were just behind the times and werent into the cut throat squeezed margin game.

[Chewing Grass]

27 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,and that is starting to reverse.They are making TVs again 1 mile from my house,washing machines 3 miles.Inflation adds in at each point,so long supply chains get smashed.The lorry from the Chinese factory,the ship,everything.Thats why Nissan are building everything around their factory including the battery plant.

Where my lad works they would rather buy a machine than get somebody else to machine or treat a component, everything as far as possible is done in-house to protect their manufacturing I.P. from the Chinese.

Their last purchase was a 5-axis laser machining centre.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

More in one year than the previous 20 combined. 

 

I can't escape the feeling that things are about to go tits up in a spectacular way. 

But surely to be meaningful those values need to be standardized for the amount of money within the economy as a whole? i.e. if there is now twice as much money than 20 years ago the apparent $ value would be much less, and by extension portray a far less dramatic scenario.

[leonardratso]

26 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Where my lad works they would rather buy a machine than get somebody else to machine or treat a component, everything as far as possible is done in-house to protect their manufacturing I.P. from the Chinese.

Their last purchase was a 5-axis laser machining centre.

do they do requests?

 

[planit]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dis-inflation is slowing of inflation,not deflation and since 82 thats what we have had.Without the printing prices would of fallen hard,so yes printing caused prices to be far higher than they would of been,but price increases still slowed and slowed over the cycle.Like you said the printing ended up in land and property like it nearly always does in the end.

In the UK the printing is pretty much the working age welfare budget over the decade.There is nothing wrong with expanding the money supply at 1%/1.5% a year,the problem is that they are printing to fund structural deficits.Thats the point where the gainers are mostly people getting from the government,the losers most of those who arent.

I expect in the UK we are very close to the end of QE,maybe some more smaller tranches then nothing.Government then has a £100billion+ structural deficit and a distribution cycle on its hands.

Of course one answer is to tax hard the 1% and the companies fleecing tax.Will they?.

 

In the last 20 years they have already found 3 new rule books to tear up so I am not convinced they won't find another one.

Luckily the only one I can think of will not be here in time - CB digital currency where they can create and destroy wealth at will in whichever sector they wish.