Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[HousePriceMania]

52 minutes ago, Harley said:

My biggest problem with not being invested is where to put it if not.

NS&I is the only place to store your cash now, though getting it out isn't the quickest I've found, but that's maybe not a bad thing.

Oddly my premium bond win rate is up, not down 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

NS&I is the only place to store your cash now, though getting it out isn't the quickest I've found, but that's maybe not a bad thing.

Not quite, there is also the central banks nemesis:

 

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

My daughter has an eye exam today and I was told I can only walk her in and then I'll have to wait in the car (yeah, like fuck I'm doing that).

I think this is part of the issue, companies/people are making up or overzealously applying rules and no one is challenging them/pushing back, so it gets more and more absurd/ingrained. My dentistry had a facemask and handwipe policy, I ignored it and when challenged said I was exempt, they then didn't `bat an eyelid`

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

My biggest problem with not being invested is where to put it if not.

Agree, in a similar position...my approach is to occasionally buy good stocks at low prices, accepting that whilst inflation is having an erosive impact on the cash reserves, in the short term due to current levels its not as much as BK drop would be.

[kibuc]

19 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I think this is part of the issue, companies/people are making up or overzealously applying rules and no one is challenging them/pushing back, so it gets more and more absurd/ingrained. My dentistry had a facemask and handwipe policy, I ignored it and when challenged said I was exempt, they then didn't `bat an eyelid`

It can have some serious effect on economy, too. The hotel I stayed in refused to accept cash (never mentioned it anywhere during the booking) "becasue covid" and simply told me to go somewhere else where they might accept it. Hadn't I been so desperate for my weekend out of town, I would have simply returned home. The very same day my wife was roaming our local hight street and saw a rainproof jacket she liked. She went inside, tried it on, wanted to buy it - sorry, no cash "becasue covid". So she got the fuck out of there and £170 stayed in her pocket. Baffling approach to doing business, really.

[planit]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

One thing I would like us to talk about is the potential for a crash in oilies prices if, come winter, some of the worst predictions of mass deaths from vaccine vulnerabilities/ADE start to come true.  

Now, I grant you it could all be bollocks, but anyone who claims 2020-21 are normal is just plain drunk.  What would be our signal for depressed demand due to mass vaxx deaths?  What's the sell point?

The oilies selling point is that demand will come back east (and west) due to declining production and the 3-5 lag in ramping up.  fair enough.  I've bought in heavily on that logical and very intelligence analysis by DB and others.  But in a world in which vaxx deaths kill substantial numbers, and the massive clusterfuck that will result, I don't see oil demand staying high, would you?

thoughts?

mine are to watch the pandemic threads for data on upticks of deaths of vaccinated people in the UK in Oct-Nov (as winter comes on and the average time from vaxxination approaches 12 months).

 

I am expecting some kind of pullback in the next few months, there are loads of possible reasons but mass vaccine deaths is not currently on the list.

I would guess a spike up followed by realisation that the economy is not doing as well as imagined as the highest reason.

 

Sentiment against the oilies is so bad that I am prepared for the punishment to be extreme. I would hope to have sold some in the mean time so I can buy back on a sharp correction.

 

I am tuned in to the DOSBODS massive to get forewarned of the pullback.

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Also worth pointing out (hattip Lynn Alden) all the talk of mean and median wages going up, etc do seem to lean towards statistical anomalies- ie furlough has taken a huge swathe of the lowest earners out of the “official average wage” calculation- ie hourly wage example 8,8,8,9,9,10,12,17,17,22,22, take the bottom 3 away (on furlough) hey presto average wage increases- markets extrapolate from there.

I think this supports the above point- and something that may indicate the market is looking the wrong way once furlough fully ends and we see the realities of lockdown come home to roost. How will the markets take those “official” stats then?

Wages are going up a lot and the lowest earners included.Iv never known the amount of factory jobs  here in the NE.Every employer it seems is trying to get staff and you see in the adverts terms like,must want to stay long term,must turn in every shift,must do nights and turn in etc etc.Amazon have planted 2000 jobs onto the area and its decent money if you do some overtime and thats making the crap low paid factories who used to lay people off whenever work dropped stuffed.They simply cant get decent people.Younger are mostly on tax credits etc and dont give a shit,older getting access to their pensions and jacking in,or taking easier low paid work.Im getting calls almost every day,and you can hear they know the games up,if they want decent staff they need to pay more.Lots more.

 

[janch]

Possible new tax on meat??  Would they dare?

https://meatmanagement.com/meat-tax-may-be-necessary-says-governments-food-tsar/#:~:text=In a leaked draft report seen by The,necessary’ in order to help tackle climate change 

Maybe time to look at those companies which make fake meat.  This is what google came up with but I've no view on any of them.

https://brandessenceresearch.com/blog/top-10-plant-based-meat-companies

 

Then there's Agronomics ANIC.  I think someone on here has invested in them if my memory serves correctly.   DYOR etc.  This is not advice.

[janch]

Taxing the tech giants will make a hole in their profits and help to pay down all the government debts worldwide if they can make it work:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57573380

Officials from 130 countries have agreed to overhaul the global tax system to ensure big companies "pay a fair share" wherever they operate.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Wages are going up a lot and the lowest earners included.Iv never known the amount of factory jobs  here in the NE.Every employer it seems is trying to get staff and you see in the adverts terms like,must want to stay long term,must turn in every shift,must do nights and turn in etc etc.Amazon have planted 2000 jobs onto the area and its decent money if you do some overtime and thats making the crap low paid factories who used to lay people off whenever work dropped stuffed.They simply cant get decent people.Younger are mostly on tax credits etc and dont give a shit,older getting access to their pensions and jacking in,or taking easier low paid work.Im getting calls almost every day,and you can hear they know the games up,if they want decent staff they need to pay more.Lots more.

 

Maybe shows what they were getting away with using foreign labour and the key real shadow force behind Remain.  Alas, I expect the government to sort that out in their favour.  Or we get some proper overdue investment, hopefully out of profits and not taxpayer pockets. 

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, janch said:

Possible new tax on meat??  Would they dare?

https://meatmanagement.com/meat-tax-may-be-necessary-says-governments-food-tsar/#:~:text=In a leaked draft report seen by The,necessary’ in order to help tackle climate change 

Maybe time to look at those companies which make fake meat.  This is what google came up with but I've no view on any of them.

https://brandessenceresearch.com/blog/top-10-plant-based-meat-companies

 

Then there's Agronomics ANIC.  I think someone on here has invested in them if my memory serves correctly.   DYOR etc.  This is not advice.

Climate emergency followed by a tax(es) to save the climate.  Who would have thunk it.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

It can have some serious effect on economy, too. The hotel I stayed in refused to accept cash (never mentioned it anywhere during the booking) "becasue covid" and simply told me to go somewhere else where they might accept it. Hadn't I been so desperate for my weekend out of town, I would have simply returned home. The very same day my wife was roaming our local hight street and saw a rainproof jacket she liked. She went inside, tried it on, wanted to buy it - sorry, no cash "becasue covid". So she got the fuck out of there and £170 stayed in her pocket. Baffling approach to doing business, really.

Top.  It's your money and you don't have to spend it.  And TBH a large part of the fun is the chase, which is for free!  Add the joy of exercising a frugal and principled moment and my total utility is higher than actually buying the stuff!

[23rdian]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

My biggest problem with not being invested is where to put it if not.

I sort of have this problem too. I transferred a decent amount in from a cash ISA, invested half now but have the other half sitting in the cash account earning 0pc. I don't really want to transfer it out again but I want it ready for a BK. Are bonds viable? Liquid enough for this? Any other alternatives?

[Harley]

4 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Because basically everyone else is doing the same, but their currency is shittier!....when you have a choice of dog shit [Euro], cat shit [Renminbi], bull shit [£UK] or sheep shit [$US] on your shoes which one would you choose?!

I think they say "the best house in a bad neighborhood", but I prefer your explanation!  It's also going up because it's been going down!

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

I sort of have this problem too. I transferred a decent amount in from a cash ISA, invested half now but have the other half sitting in the cash account earning 0pc. I don't really want to transfer it out again but I want it ready for a BK. Are bonds viable? Liquid enough for this? Any other alternatives?

I have to do my weekly review this weekend but am expecting a buy signal in some bonds!  Yup, totally against the narrative, but that's the narrative for you!  I'm sure another one will be along soon if required though!

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-committed-to-diverse-workforce-and-senior-leadership-yellen-says-1475179202

 

Janet Yellen Sees Benefits to Central Bank Stock Purchases

The ability to buy equities or corporate bonds could be helpful in a downturn, the Fed chief says

 

[Don Coglione]

6 hours ago, kibuc said:

I went to London last weekend to get some escape from my family. The city partied like it was the 20s again (perhaps because it is?), Saturday morning there were young people dressed to impress all over the place clearly going somewhere fun, the place I went to there was a grand total of 5 security guys simultaneously manning the entrance AND reminding around a thousand people inside not to dance. It was purely for show and hardly anyone gave a fuck. Had a lovely night, including a "covid-unregulated" afterparty at a local brewery.

Around 20% people on the Tube had no mask at all and another 20% kept them firmly under their chins (and yes, I graduated from Spygirl's School of Made Up Stats).

I am in London this weekend and agree with all of that.

For me, no mask on the train here, on the Tube or in any venues. Only got asked about it once in a bar, quickly dismissed.

No-one gives a shit any more.

[janch]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

expecting a buy signal in some bonds! 

I remember DH saying bonds would have a last hurrah about the same time @DurhamBornsaid he preferred Brazil as it's currency would be strong vs US dollar.  So I bought some IBTL and also IBZL and both have so far risen a bit.  IBTL looks to be going higher. Yay!

IBTL: iShares $ Treasury Bd 20+yr UCITS ETF USD Dist

IBZL: iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF USD (Dist)

This is not advice, DYOR etc

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, janch said:

I remember DH saying bonds would have a last hurrah about the same time @DurhamBornsaid he preferred Brazil as it's currency would be strong vs US dollar.  So I bought some IBTL and also IBZL and both have so far risen a bit.  IBTL looks to be going higher. Yay!

IBTL: iShares $ Treasury Bd 20+yr UCITS ETF USD Dist

IBZL: iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF USD (Dist)

This is not advice, DYOR etc

Probably ahead of me as I use the monthlies as I'm prepared to sacrifice gains for the possibility of more certainty.  Yes, IBTL would be the main one.  I too question the whys and how longs but up is up and I'm not in it to make sense of everything.  Brazil was brave but thanks for the prompt to look.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Buy the dip! Ah...............

[Majorpain]

37 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

No-one gives a shit any more.

Unless it involves a magic money tree, I was curious why waiters were using the NHS Covid app when they would be near enough guaranteed to be "pinged" with 10 days isolation, the £500 isolation payments are probably a big cause!  Oh no, isolation again.....  £1500 free a month cha-ching!  

Then there is "long" covid, I know plenty of people who got it bad, yet none suffer from its debilitating effects?  Maybe its only a Public sector thing with no question 100% sick pay for months on end.  

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, kibuc said:

It can have some serious effect on economy, too. The hotel I stayed in refused to accept cash (never mentioned it anywhere during the booking) "becasue covid" and simply told me to go somewhere else where they might accept it. Hadn't I been so desperate for my weekend out of town, I would have simply returned home. The very same day my wife was roaming our local hight street and saw a rainproof jacket she liked. She went inside, tried it on, wanted to buy it - sorry, no cash "becasue covid". So she got the fuck out of there and £170 stayed in her pocket. Baffling approach to doing business, really.

I have had this too; I don't like to use plastic as handing over cash helps you control your spending better...its almost as if some businesses want to go bankrupt!

The best I had was in Sainsburys, I wanted cashback so asked before paying "No sorry, we don't do cashback because of Covid"..."Can I pay with cash?"..."Yes thats fine"....wtf?...completely illogical, but the Sharon on the till couldn't equate the contradiction!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

....but the Sharon on the till..

Useless related facts. 

My first girlfriend was called Sharon.  Lovely lass.  Went to the pics and snogged at the back row for our first date.  That's what the back row was for back then.

I also took my current partner to the pics on our first date.  I fell asleep and she foolishly thought dinner was included.  She worked the tills at Sainsbury's.   Her name is not Sharon.

Small world.

[MrXxxx]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

Useless related facts. 

My first girlfriend was called Sharon.  Lovely lass.  Went to the pics and snogged at the back row for our first date.  That's what the back row was for back then.

I also took my current partner to the pics on our first date.  I fell asleep and she foolishly thought dinner was included.  She worked the tills at Sainsbury's.   Her name is not Sharon.

Small world.

..but does she give you cashback? :-)

[invalid]

For anyone interested in UK timber prices:

https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/statistics/statistics-by-topic/timber-statistics/timber-price-indices/#:~:text=The average price for softwood,6 months to March 2020.

 

Coniferous Standing Sales Price Index:

• The index was 1.0% higher in real terms (7.9% higher in nominal terms) in the year to March 2021, compared with the previous year.
• The average price for coniferous standing sales was £31.03 per cubic metre overbark standing in nominal terms in the year to March 2021, an increase from £28.22 in the year to March 2020.

Softwood Sawlog Price Index:

• The Softwood Sawlog Price Index was 15.4% higher in real terms (22.2% higher in nominal terms) in the 6 months to March 2021, compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.
• The average price for softwood sawlog sales was £67.70 per cubic metre overbark in nominal terms in the 6-month period to March 2021, an increase from £49.76 in the 6 months to September 2020 and £55.42 in the 6 months to March 2020.