Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Chewing Grass]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like ordinary people ,my partners relatives live there and were scared to go in a couple of the pubs and told us not to.I thought they were quite posh compared to where i grew up  nothing wrong with them at all and £2.15 a pint.It hasnt been taken over by the BTL/holiday let brigade as well.Its a place that might boom going forward as well,there is a massive amount of gas sitting offshore.

 

Just street-viewed Brid, not been there since I was a kid in the 1970s, go 500 metres North or South from the harbour and it is very pleasant (even Sewerby), the South Side is like the Brighton/Bournemouth of the North with a better Beach and the North Side is like the best bits of Scarborough.

Something for everybody no less.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Sasquatch]

57% inflation in two days!

Was looking to buy 400m of timber for our house project. I researched prices from various suppliers on 29th June. Checked again this morning. Decided to buy from an alternative retailer!

 

[Barnsey]

On the stubborn savings front...

Negative rates coming? Or full lifting of restrictions, particularly travel, all that is needed?

[jamtomorrow]

Busiest 6 months ever for PE, and the implications for the 99% are just awful - automation means you can't access prosperity through work and wages, and PE means you won't access it through ownership either.

You'll own nothing, and you'll earn nothing.

 

[Bilbo]

Link didn't work 😔

[Nomad]

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

[AWW]

17 minutes ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

And that's on an official measure, which grossly understates the impact of inflation on most people.

[Chewing Grass]

20 minutes ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

Piss poor and most disingenuous reporting from the BBC.

Rates have been unchanged since March last year, when they were reduced to help contain the economic shock of Covid-19.

Interest rates haven't been realisticly changed since 2008 and have not been used to manage the economy as there is nothing left to manage.

and, yes I remember 17% as I had my first Mortgage at the time...

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

On the stubborn savings front...

Negative rates coming? Or full lifting of restrictions, particularly travel, all that is needed?

There is a distinct lack of anything but headline GDP data for 2020, it would be very interesting to see what effect furlough/lockdown/isolation/money printing has had on the structure of the economy.  70% service sector has probably taken a massive hammering.

There is also a barrage of negative things about, from new variants that are going to kill everyone, to little Jimmy/Jemima having to isolate (and keeping parents off work...) because someone in bubble got a cough through to people treating it like a zombie apocalypse and not leaving the house for anything.  Not exactly the sort of environment conducive to big spending on the credit card!

Then there is the other side of the coin, that with Holidays off the menu, Car manufacturing problems and 18 months of rules changing with no warning, IMO the only really big ticket item actually going these days is housing.  Hard to take on debt for things if there is little to actually buy.  That would be something i really want to see the data for, what are people actually spending money on at the minute?

[Nomad]

The only thing I am not spending money on that I was previously is petrol, year before covid I drove 23k miles a year, this year 3k.

Other than that all other spending as normal. Mind you I have never been a big spender anyway. Very few holidays or items bought as I don't need them

[planit]

Oil surged up today, highest since 2018

And this is before the figures later which will probably show a further large draw in stockpiles. We could be seeing a blow-off over the next couple of weeks, I have no knowledge or evidence but a move to $80 or higher and pullback seems right.

The projected OPEC increases are not enough to make up the existing shortage plus projected demand increases so I don't see the situation suddenly turning around now.

If OPEC feels the prices are too high (somewhere between $80 and $100?) they will come out with an announcement to drop the oil prices back down. 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

15 hours ago, leonardratso said:

when the wheel barrow is worth more than the contents eh.

De la rue shares would be the ultimate hedge against this if it wasn't for debit cards and CBDCs.

[Chewing Grass]

I saw a particularly good quote from the Biologist guy who does The Dark Horse Podcast because I thought it applied perfectly to our world. He was discussing Giants from the David & Goliath perspective and said giantism is a symptom of pituitary gland tumours not switching off growth.

'If you are accelerating growth past the normal point of cessation, you will be borrowing from the capacity for care and maintenance'.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just street-viewed Brid, not been there since I was a kid in the 1970s, go 500 metres North or South from the harbour and it is very pleasant (even Sewerby), the South Side is like the Brighton/Bournemouth of the North with a better Beach and the North Side is like the best bits of Scarborough.

Something for everybody no less.

Its been done up a lot,the front is really lovely now and you can walk or cycle all the way along,or as was the case when my mam got older push a wheelchair,those things make a difference.The south of the harbour has a fantastic beach and a lovely new free childrens pool,paddling stream,really nice toilets etc.The Spa has some superb acts on and the lads whining on the threads about never getting laid need to go there on a 70s or ABBA tribute weekend,my partner wont let me leave her side if we are there when those are on .A few big new modern bars are opening this year,one a sports bar with dozens of big TVs,near the bookies my dad (and me) could be dumped in there and left.£2.15 a pint and it doesnt go up on a night.Still a lot of free parking around the south end and some at the north.

Sewerby is a bit naff now and the council dont seem to have many ideas for it,but still nice enough.Worst part for me is driving around Scabby to get there,its a nightmare and really wish there was a straight past bypass.Can go York way,but lots of memories from being a kid from Whitby and Bay and so always go that way.

Book far enough ahead and you can get the Premier Inn rooms for £35 and free parking.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

I had 3.8% for now 3 years ago.Biggest bunch or liars there are the bankers.Inflation is around 10% in the real world and its not a one off that will roll back,the CBs have lifted liquidity by a third so that tax can get in front of spending so governments dont go bust.MSM and almost everyone says reflation in the rear view now and all over.They havent a clue what they are talking about.Lots of dislocation in the economy and its around 90% certain we are entering into a distribution cycle right now.As assets including houses top out inflation will ensure assets have to be sold.

Critical to own areas that can leverage the inflation without losing customers.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[DoINeedOne]

Bought some HMY and AUY yesterday,My ISA seems to be filling up with miners again

[invalid]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

On the stubborn savings front...

Negative rates coming? Or full lifting of restrictions, particularly travel, all that is needed?

 

 

Travel - holidays are a good way to get that cash out of peoples bank accounts. Personally, I don't think that would be a good thing as it also means lots of cash going outside the UK.

But lots of people like their two weeks in the sun, perhaps time to top up those IAG shares.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Bought some HMY and AUY yesterday,My ISA seems to be filling up with miners again

I bought some more HMY yesterday as well, looking closely at topping up AUY also.

SNAP.

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

De la rue shares would be the ultimate hedge against this if it wasn't for debit cards and CBDCs.

Rubbish. Bitcoin of course. 😃

[Hancock]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like ordinary people ,my partners relatives live there and were scared to go in a couple of the pubs and told us not to.I thought they were quite posh compared to where i grew up  nothing wrong with them at all and £2.15 a pint.It hasnt been taken over by the BTL/holiday let brigade as well.Its a place that might boom going forward as well,there is a massive amount of gas sitting offshore.

 

I got told off by a woman bouncer for putting my foot in the door of a pub to see the football score.

Its a strange old place if you ask me, maybe if they built a dual carriage way to get there and stuck a huge casino on the sea front, it'd improve the place.

But planning laws and big govt don't see to like people having fun, outside of 10 stellas and eating several thousand calories in one sitting.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, invalid said:

 

 

Travel - holidays are a good way to get that cash out of peoples bank accounts. Personally, I don't think that would be a good thing as it also means lots of cash going outside the UK.

But lots of people like their two weeks in the sun, perhaps time to top up those IAG shares.

 

£43bn on foreign holidays in 2019, so still quite a bit to play with. 

 

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

There is a distinct lack of anything but headline GDP data for 2020, it would be very interesting to see what effect furlough/lockdown/isolation/money printing has had on the structure of the economy.  70% service sector has probably taken a massive hammering.

There is also a barrage of negative things about, from new variants that are going to kill everyone, to little Jimmy/Jemima having to isolate (and keeping parents off work...) because someone in bubble got a cough through to people treating it like a zombie apocalypse and not leaving the house for anything.  Not exactly the sort of environment conducive to big spending on the credit card!

Then there is the other side of the coin, that with Holidays off the menu, Car manufacturing problems and 18 months of rules changing with no warning, IMO the only really big ticket item actually going these days is housing.  Hard to take on debt for things if there is little to actually buy.  That would be something i really want to see the data for, what are people actually spending money on at the minute?

I think there's quite a bit more psychologically to our 18 months of stop start imprisonment than many are willing to acknowledge in regards to people feeling positive enough to spend impulsively. Other night the news was focussing on how restaurants aren't getting the reopening demand that was much hyped, changes in habits are proving very sticky unless you're very young. Recession and inflation fears fairly pronounced, perhaps overly so thanks to MSM.

2 hours ago, planit said:

Oil surged up today, highest since 2018

And this is before the figures later which will probably show a further large draw in stockpiles. We could be seeing a blow-off over the next couple of weeks, I have no knowledge or evidence but a move to $80 or higher and pullback seems right.

The projected OPEC increases are not enough to make up the existing shortage plus projected demand increases so I don't see the situation suddenly turning around now.

If OPEC feels the prices are too high (somewhere between $80 and $100?) they will come out with an announcement to drop the oil prices back down. 

 

Mr Hunter stated things oil was rolling over 3 weeks ago, yet here we are.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

Everyone of these central bankers that leaves the BoE calls for imminent interest rate rises ... yet when they got the job it was the polar opposite.

[planit]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

£43bn per year on foreign holidays in 2019, so still quite a bit to play with. 

 

I think there's quite a bit more psychologically to our 18 months of stop start imprisonment than many are willing to acknowledge in regards to people feeling positive enough to spend impulsively. Other night the news was focussing on how restaurants aren't getting the reopening demand that was much hyped, changes in habits are proving very sticky unless you're very young. Recession and inflation fears fairly pronounced, perhaps overly so thanks to MSM.

Mr Hunter stated things oil was rolling over 3 weeks ago, yet here we are.

Over the summer (probably because of eat out to help out) and in the autumn up to the second lockdown  I couldn't get into any pub, really annoying.

Everything is completely different now, even with the football the pub was empty. Restaurants easy to book too and I haven't been able to think of a good reason why. Habits changing could explain some of it as you say but not all.

If people have got used to living on less money and not working as hard (also lots of people have decided to retire) then the economy in developed countries is going to dive and everything will crash when the figures come through.

Most people have put off flights this summer too.

I don't see how this could be further away than September/October.

Where is the reopening boom that everyone is expecting? THE MARKETS ARE RELYING ON IT