Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Centrica chart looks good to me, time for a sneaky top up 

Il take you word for it and iv just joined you, no DYOR here because i try not to look at them,,,,,bought a slab.No pressure,but iv only ever had pain from them.Lets see  

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Centrica chart looks good to me, time for a sneaky top up 

You were meant to have bought back in Dec20, or Jan21 if you were uber cautious!  Now comes the pullback?

 

[leonardratso]

i was getting bored of them and have been dumping cna, even at a loss, they too fecking slow.
watch them get a bid now.

[Barnsey]

Ignore the sage at your peril

 

[janch]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

i was getting bored of them and have been dumping cna, even at a loss, they too fecking slow.
watch them get a bid now.

That was the first share I bought when I took the plunge to start investing again after having my fingers badly burnt many years ago.  I probably would never have restarted without this excellent thread but I should have known better with this one as I had a terrible job for a few weeks in a British Gas call-centre.  It was the worst job I ever had and the new trainees had to wait 7 weeks to get their first pay cheque Apart from that we had to sell,sell,sell even though the job was in the "homemovers" department and the first 20 mins of every day in work was spent uploading 8 different systems.  That was before the shift started so you didn't get paid for that time.

I doubt if the company has changed much in the intervening years.  Anyway I too have dumped the shares at a loss and I won't be rebuying unless gas prices shoot up in which case they might deserve another look.

[leonardratso]

39 minutes ago, janch said:

That was the first share I bought when I took the plunge to start investing again after having my fingers badly burnt many years ago.  I probably would never have restarted without this excellent thread but I should have known better with this one as I had a terrible job for a few weeks in a British Gas call-centre.  It was the worst job I ever had and the new trainees had to wait 7 weeks to get their first pay cheque Apart from that we had to sell,sell,sell even though the job was in the "homemovers" department and the first 20 mins of every day in work was spent uploading 8 different systems.  That was before the shift started so you didn't get paid for that time.

I doubt if the company has changed much in the intervening years.  Anyway I too have dumped the shares at a loss and I won't be rebuying unless gas prices shoot up in which case they might deserve another look.

aye, complete shite.

nuff said.

[Barnsey]

And...

 

[Transistor Man]

Lyn Alden on Energy. 

Very good, well worth a read.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4436929-the-case-for-a-longer-term-oil-and-gas-bull-market?__twitter_impression=true

 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Transistor Man said:

Lyn Alden on Energy. 

Very good, well worth a read.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4436929-the-case-for-a-longer-term-oil-and-gas-bull-market?__twitter_impression=true

 

That is bloody brilliant. Thanks for posting

[Lightscribe]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/28/lorry-driver-shortage-uk-government-and-retailers-in-emergency-talks-covid-brexit

Another anecdotal, my brothers haulage firm he uses has stated they just can’t get drivers. When they leave, it’s impossible to replace them apparently. They are really starting to struggle at this point.

Think we’re heading for some major logistical issues showing up in the next few months.

As much as where the blame is placed in the above article as expected from the Guardian, it seems to be not just the UK. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/business/gas-station-outages/index.html

[Innkeeper]

59 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/28/lorry-driver-shortage-uk-government-and-retailers-in-emergency-talks-covid-brexit

Another anecdotal, my brothers haulage firm he uses has stated they just can’t get drivers. When they leave, it’s impossible to replace them apparently. They are really starting to struggle at this point.

Think we’re heading for some major logistical issues showing up in the next few months.

As much as where the blame is placed in the above article as expected from the Guardian, it seems to be not just the UK. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/business/gas-station-outages/index.html

For a couple of decades employers have been riding the wave of experienced ‘home grown’ labour and younger cheaper foreign trained labour.  Both these are running out as the home grown older labour force retires and the overseas workforce finds something better/goes home/can’t come here.

Corporate board members are paid millions to sort the answer to these problems instead of moaning.  It’s tougher for small businesses but they have to adapt.  Proper training, wages and a sense that the company actually appreciates you will go a long way (even to pull some of the skivers off their sofas).  But these basic things have long disappeared in the face of cooperate greed, terrible management and hopeless self serving trade unions.

 

[BadAlchemy]

For my 'atlas shrugged' moment I quit lucrative IT contracting and am now semi-retired, but I do a couple of days a week stress free work in a supermarket warehouse so as not to run down savings too much.

Speaking to the lorry drivers there and, yes, they cannot get drivers now and are currently in dire need of about 30 of them. Hope you all still have your lockdown/prepper food stashes in place?

Globalization and disinflation cycle chickens all coming home to roost, now. (Speaking of which I really should get some chickens... LOL!)
 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/28/lorry-driver-shortage-uk-government-and-retailers-in-emergency-talks-covid-brexit

Another anecdotal, my brothers haulage firm he uses has stated they just can’t get drivers. When they leave, it’s impossible to replace them apparently. They are really starting to struggle at this point.

Think we’re heading for some major logistical issues showing up in the next few months.

As much as where the blame is placed in the above article as expected from the Guardian, it seems to be not just the UK. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/business/gas-station-outages/index.html

Company i'm working for can't get lorry's to deliver their product ... will mean dozens of skilled people at the other end twiddling their thumbs when there is work installing the product.

[HousePriceMania]

Has anyone thought of shorting rightmove/persimmon/house builders ?

If UKPropertyLion data shows a significant fall in the number of properties listed for sale I think rightmove could have a real problem and I am serious considering shorting them.

As for persimmon etc, if the price of houses has gone up 13% in a year and prices have reached historically affordably high levels, we could see a significant correction.

Didn't the people from the big short make a fortune from the 2007 collapse ?

 

 

[Hancock]

Sunak is a 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Innkeeper said:

For a couple of decades employers have been riding the wave of experienced ‘home grown’ labour and younger cheaper foreign trained labour.  Both these are running out as the home grown older labour force retires and the overseas workforce finds something better/goes home/can’t come here.

Corporate board members are paid millions to sort the answer to these problems instead of moaning.  It’s tougher for small businesses but they have to adapt.  Proper training, wages and a sense that the company actually appreciates you will go a long way (even to pull some of the skivers off their sofas).  But these basic things have long disappeared in the face of cooperate greed, terrible management and hopeless self serving trade unions.

 

My nephew is a part owner of a large, family generation run haulage firm. They managed to keep hold of their EU drivers as they bought up local cheap Kent property in previous years near the depot that they offer them subsidised rent for. They also pay them good rates and OT, so the drivers have tended to stick around over the years.

I spoke to my nephew this morning, they can literally pick their contract rates at the moment.

The grandad started that company at 15 with a clapped out van, kicked out of school with no qualifications and the nan pregnant with my nephew’s dad. His acumen was always to treat the drivers right, and it went from strength to strength over the decades. 

I wonder how all those ‘lean process’ six sigma qualified project managers and highly qualified company directors with all those letters after their name will fare, when a 40 year disinflation cycle reverses the other way. 

[Heart's Ease]

 

 

[Nomad]

Seems like the banks want the taxpayer to pick the bill up for people who are struggling to repay their mortgages, what a great scheme for the banks, we'll keep the profits but if there is any debt we want to pass that on.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57240532

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

My nephew is a part owner of a large, family generation run haulage firm. They managed to keep hold of their EU drivers as they bought up local cheap Kent property in previous years near the depot that they offer them subsidised rent for. They also pay them good rates and OT, so the drivers have tended to stick around over the years.

I spoke to my nephew this morning, they can literally pick their contract rates at the moment.

The grandad started that company at 15 with a clapped out van, kicked out of school with no qualifications and the nan pregnant with my nephew’s dad. His acumen was always to treat the drivers right, and it went from strength to strength over the decades. 

I wonder how all those ‘lean process’ six sigma qualified project managers and highly qualified company directors with all those letters after their name will fare, when a 40 year disinflation cycle reverses the other way. 

Exactly and that is what is happening.All these big companies were/are in desperate need of macro strategy,not all that dis-inflation rubbish.Inflation crushes all those stupid terms and jobs,but few had any idea what was coming.

My son works in a warehouse for one of the big discounters and they cant get the low paid pickers,30 come,1 is good enough or stays,the rest leave or are let go.He said they are going to put the wages up on the agency workers to try to get more in.

Welfare needs massive reform,but i dont think we will see any with this government,at least until they get shot of Boris.That is unless the treasury forces the issue once the BOE stops monetising the welfare budget.

Since the Blair government this country slowly moved to where half the people worked to support the other half and the difference between working and not closed to the point where having a crap job wasnt worth it.

Employers have treated people badly for a long time with zero loyalty or care to staff.This cycle will make them pay for that.

Im glad im such a good cook,because a big inflation in food hits me much less when i spend £40 a week than it will these families who spend well over £100 .

[Noallegiance]

If ever an article summed up where we are on multiple fronts without unwrapping the underlying causes and inevitable outcomes:

Why small investors are piling into share-trading apps - BBC News

[JMD]

13 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Lyn Alden on Energy. 

Very good, well worth a read.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4436929-the-case-for-a-longer-term-oil-and-gas-bull-market?__twitter_impression=true

 

Just a reminder that similar great in-depth essays can be received from Lyn Alden by subscribing to her free newsletter (she also offers a rather 'inexpensive', and in my opinion very impressive, fee based service).

 

[HousePriceMania]

On 23/06/2021 at 10:14, HousePriceMania said:

 

Inflation ?

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Nomad said:

Seems like the banks want the taxpayer to pick the bill up for people who are struggling to repay their mortgages, what a great scheme for the banks, we'll keep the profits but if there is any debt we want to pass that on.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57240532

 

Max Keiser was good today, all about the UK and US housing ponzi schemes.

Apparently the US government is giving California 6 billion dollars of taxpayers money, to pay backdated rent to landlords. i.e. taking from the poor to give to the rich!

... with the added bonus of inflating property prices, so the poor are even more priced out, all profits are obviously privatised.

Just read that begging article for banks and mortgage holders, then after scrolling down, noticed the "house prices rise at fastest pace in 17 years" story.  Its all about property prices, absolutely fucken everything.

[planit]

I wanted to illustrate the current situation and where we are heading with regards to oil balances.

Section A in the chart of US oil stocks below is the last 3 months. The grey shadow is the average inventory for the last 5 years.

From the chart it is not very obvious how fast stockpiles are declining compared to the 'normal' for this time of year so I have extrapolated forwards.

For both the last 3 months (A) and the next 3 months (B) I have drawn in the 5 year average range boundaries. From this I can work out the 3 months drop from this 'expected' value. Then I apply the same drop on top of the average range  movement for the next 3 months. At current rate of shortfall of supply we end up at point X.

 

 

Now this clearly is a crude (pun intended) analysis mainly because I am using the range movement rather than the average movement.

The biggest reason I can see for the drop is oil transport has not shifted enough to make up for the drop in shale production. With the US self sufficient under Trump, there was no need to transport much oil to US. Now world oil flows will have to rebalance to address where the oil is needed and supply everywhere is tight (article).

The change in policy with Biden compared to Trump has also not helped and they seem to have their heads buried in the sand and be helping Russia and OPEC+. The balance of power has shifted towards OPEC and Russia for both oil and gas, Germany is as bad as the US. 

OPEC will keep oil supplies tight, they are quietly leading the world in the current situation and the squeeze is going to show up in the best location for them as the chart above predicts. This situation can't turn around quickly (like an oil tanker LOL) because we are already in the draw down season, shale is not ramping up and Biden is shutting oil down. There is no line of oil tankers on it's way to the US.

If everyone keeps ignoring the issue (hard to address 'dirty' oil and gas), I doubt the battered industry are going to come to the rescue (as they have a 'you deserve this' attitude) so in 4-6 weeks we should see the result.

  

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

My son works in a warehouse for one of the big discounters and they cant get the low paid pickers,30 come,1 is good enough or stays,the rest leave or are let go.He said they are going to put the wages up on the agency workers to try to get more in.

 

Thats exactly as im seeing it, in the factory im currently at. I'm outsider contracted by another company to work there, but i speak to the lads and its minimum wage agency work for most, when it needs to be £15 to keep them.

Agency staff come in for an hour, dont like it then go home ... that wouldnt happen if the wage was as i state, which could be attained by cutting the agent out the picture.