Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, JMD said:

DB, must say i love it when you include numbers and figures, i know they are approx. and may/will change, but it does help my small brain grasp the big economic concepts more easily.

As for those structural changes you mention, employment, wages (but also extending i think to infrastructure spending, cbdc's/proxy ID control, etc) - policies we are beginning to hear about more and more, and are seeing happen all around... Well, thing is I personally don't know if Covid was 'a panic or a plan'-demic, but one thing is certain to my mind - 'the event' was definitely very serendipitous to these types of changes which are now being implemented (forced upon us without debate?) very early in the cycle... only saying, but does make you think doesn't it?

...Also i wonder if the (introduced) extra timing might be very beneficial, giving more runway to enable hope of economic-takeoff instead of monetary-crash and burn! 

I use the numbers all the time of course,but i try to get across that its direction that matters.If my train from Darlington to Kings Cross has no brakes i know in the end it will crash into the buffers,so i have the direction and destination,but by working out fuel,hills,bends,downhill,lorries crossing the line etc etc i can try to see where it speeds up and slows down and if it might come off the rails early.Once you know that its a lot easier to get on and get off early before things happen.

The world cant take all the currency,what we need is new production,but governments are lost.Expect a credit deflation kicking in alongside goods and services inflation.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

53% of total demand this morning was Gas. 

I've had a look at today's power mix. A lot more solar today. Still very little wind. This is no way to run crucial infrastructure. People will be looking at the wind forecast to decide whether they can afford to turn the lights on once dynamic pricing is added to smart meters. Go long candle makers.

[ThoughtCriminal]

The interconnector fire. Such a fitting metaphor for the UK as a whole. 

 

Goldman Sachs just raised the probability of blackouts in the uk this winter. 

 

1970s vibes 😎

 

Update: National Grid just announced the interconnector will be running at only 50% capacity until October 13th at the earliest. 

 

I know i sound like Mr Doom but everyone on here should take measures to ensure independent heating capability for winter. 

 

To quote that great thinker Han Solo "I've got a bad feeling about this". 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I put the heating on a couple of times this summer, much to my wifes consternation. We're at a solar minimum here, which could mean an absolutely baltic winter.

Yep, and if Piers Corbyn is correct it will be truly hysterical to see how things unwind - policy wise, etc. 'Settled science' my ar*e!!

I very much like and respect science, but the way i currently see things is that if i were being kind to certain individuals, i'd say we have people like Piers Corbyn and Chris Witty occupying one end of the scientific spectrum!!... depressing isn't it?

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Boon said:

Would a 25% wage increase make much of a difference at the bottom end?

It would help the inflationary cause for sure, but for those who make a career out of maximising the benefits system, doesn't seem persuasive enough to give that up.

Nevertheless it would be really interesting to see these effects. Employers being in competition means that most would have to raise wages otherwise face everyone leaving. It would be strange if even the jobs at the crappest level paid £12 an hour when minimum wage is £9/hr for instance.

Anoteher effect I thought of is people deskilling themselves. For instance people in jobs which have a lot of sales targets and grief from managers. Even in London you can find a surprising amount of these types of jobs which only pay an equivalent of £15 an hour (that is around £31k). Wouldn't it be easier for one to simply go to stacking shelves or cleaning for £12 and save yourself stress, not having to take work home, etc.

I think 25% is the point where it starts to affect choices around benefits,so is a minimum yes.Like you say it also means people on higher wages with lots of stress might decide to drop down.Whats certain here is employers have lost almost all power to decide.Workers will decide.One job i turned down this week was good money,but crap hours.I told the guy id rather have £12 an hour in an Aldi warehouse working 5.30am until 11am ,at least home for lunchtime every day.These companies dont know what to do.They have bosses sat at home still while the company crumbles.Its a serious situation.

[spunko]

A "part 3" of this thread is needed shortly. I will create it when it gets to ~1450 pages.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think 25% is the point where it starts to affect choices around benefits,so is a minimum yes.Like you say it also means people on higher wages with lots of stress might decide to drop down.Whats certain here is employers have lost almost all power to decide.Workers will decide.One job i turned down this week was good money,but crap hours.I told the guy id rather have £12 an hour in an Aldi warehouse working 5.30am until 11am ,at least home for lunchtime every day.These companies dont know what to do.They have bosses sat at home still while the company crumbles.Its a serious situation.

I need to get this straight. You're talking about manufacturing industry, aren't you? What the hell are the managers doing sat at home?

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I need to get this straight. You're talking about manufacturing industry, aren't you? What the hell are the managers doing sat at home?

Causing supply shortages and price increases, I think.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I need to get this straight. You're talking about manufacturing industry, aren't you? What the hell are the managers doing sat at home?

Isolating I expect

Edit: Or "WORKING" from home

[Shamone]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Temporary eh  ,so that means all the inflation we are getting will reverse and prices return to pre last March.Temporary means short term,going away etc.What a complete set of frauds our ministers and MPs are.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uks-javid-says-inflation-jump-is-likely-temporary/ar-AAOsypy?ocid=mailsignout

Well another job offer before 10am this morning.This one was fantastic because it is bang on what the roadmap predicted.The firm needs 100 extra people across several roles.Reason is they have closed supply in a few countries and brought it in house.This is a good company and reasonable pay.The guy said they were struggling to fill the roles,they had 60,but people keep leaving so they were nowhere near what they needed.It was nice to actually speak to someone who understood the situation.He agreed companies who wouldnt pay more wouldnt get staff.I turned it down of course, i told him i wasnt prepared to work shifts anymore and the money wasnt enough to tempt me.I slipped in it would be  good job for younger people,but he said most of the below 30 years olds they had taken didnt turn in half the time and just kept leaving .

My worry is the government cracks though and opens the EU floodgates again.The economy needs this healing process and they need to let it run its course.

 

 

How do you keep getting all these offers, if you don’t mind me asking? LinkedIn? I guess I could claim contribution based JSA but I’m not interacting with those cunts. It’s Indeed for me.

[headrow]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Could it be the two socialists in the photo might take their foot off the neck of the Scottish play,and i hope they didnt get to keep the jackets.

 

[harp]

38 minutes ago, headrow said:

 

He left the chancellor in the pan? 😳

 Best have the cabinet reshuffle quick!!

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I'm looking at solar (still!) atm but am looking at storage at home rather than grid tie, or maybe both.  I value the option of energy independence (off grid) quite highly.  That'll probably have to be valued quite highly to make the numbers add up!

Have some aspect of the storage grid tied as solar is pretty much useless from about now on until Feb/March.
Had a low battery alert every morning this week from about midnight through to 10am. I was hoping to get another full week at least out of it.
Must remember to set battery drain to 50% and start charging from the mains for the first time ever!

[HousePriceMania]

Did anyone actually realise this is the worst recession in 300 years ?

 

 

[janch]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I put the heating on a couple of times this summer, much to my wifes consternation. We're at a solar minimum here, which could mean an absolutely baltic winter.

I hardly use any heating as I'm in a second floor flat which has large windows facing south. (It's not so good when we have a heatwave although I can leave patio doors and all the windows open to catch any breeze). The "passive solar" heat is brilliant on a sunny day in winter and I am often surprised how cold it is outside.

For anyone looking to buy a property I would really look at which way it faces and where the windows are.  It makes a huge difference to the feel of the place and to the heating bills.

Apart from that I also wear a lot of clothing in winter and am not ashamed to have a duvet/blanket over my knees for TV watching etc.

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Did anyone actually realise this is the worst recession in 300 years ?

 

 

It wasn't a recession, It was the biggest bailout in human history as the economy was imploding.

They just shut the economy and give themselves, their sponsors and the public sector a load of money for doing sweet FA.

It pretty much showed most people can sit at home and do fuck all and it makes little difference.

[Hancock]

Price of oil is getting close to its 5 year high ... and i didnt buy my fuck load of BP! 

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Have some aspect of the storage grid tied as solar is pretty much useless from about now on until Feb/March.
Had a low battery alert every morning this week from about midnight through to 10am. I was hoping to get another full week at least out of it.
Must remember to set battery drain to 50% and start charging from the mains for the first time ever!

Useless?  Really?  How do you define that?  A bit worrying to read that.  But yes, I would go for the ability to charge from the mains or a generator in addition to solar.  There's stuff on the web but a minefield.  Do you have any links to suppliers, info, etc please?

 

[Harley]

27 minutes ago, janch said:

I hardly use any heating as I'm in a second floor flat which has large windows facing south. (It's not so good when we have a heatwave although I can leave patio doors and all the windows open to catch any breeze). The "passive solar" heat is brilliant on a sunny day in winter and I am often surprised how cold it is outside.

For anyone looking to buy a property I would really look at which way it faces and where the windows are.  It makes a huge difference to the feel of the place and to the heating bills.

Apart from that I also wear a lot of clothing in winter and am not ashamed to have a duvet/blanket over my knees for TV watching etc.

Yes, I have a couple of almost survival suits if it gets too cold, the heating breaks down, etc.  One is the thermal inner suit for dry suit diving and the other is a Dixies insulated work suit.  The Aldi fishing clothing is also nicely insulated so I have one set of trousers (with bib) for outside and one for in.  Good value at about £20 each last time.  Oh and the skiing and mountain wear. 

[janch]

All those poorly insulated, draughty, high ceiling Victorian houses with "features" beloved by Kirsty and Phil aren't going to look so clever unless people use the grates for real fires and start collecting firewood.

[janch]

Elliott hedge fund taking up a position in SSE:

https://www.ft.com/content/8ecfd9e6-e00c-4841-aad9-4b99fba00595

(Press ESC as it starts to load the page to get free access)

A number of European energy groups and utilities are looking into plans to spin off their clean energy businesses to capitalise on the long-term valuation of their renewable energy assets.

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think 25% is the point where it starts to affect choices around benefits,so is a minimum yes.Like you say it also means people on higher wages with lots of stress might decide to drop down.Whats certain here is employers have lost almost all power to decide.Workers will decide.

Underway right now thanks to the truck driver pay publicity. Hearing discussion around this quite a bit, always an uncomfortable spot to be in the middle somewhere, realising much simpler jobs are catching up rapidly in pay.

[Barnsey]

9 minutes ago, janch said:

All those poorly insulated, draughty, high ceiling Victorian houses with "features" beloved by Kirsty and Phil aren't going to look so clever unless people use the grates for real fires and start collecting firewood.

Ah yes Kirsty "somehow we made it to Disney world for our holibobs when all Brits are banned from the USA" Allsop and Phil "one of us but African Trophy Hunter" Spencer. As Ben Hunt would say, burn it the f**k down.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Shamone said:

How do you keep getting all these offers, if you don’t mind me asking? LinkedIn? I guess I could claim contribution based JSA but I’m not interacting with those cunts. It’s Indeed for me.

Indeed and other sites.Upload your CV with a new title every month and it highlights your active.I change the date each time CVSEPT21 etc.Plus my CV is with the agencies who tend to handle the big process industry/pharm/chemical industry.Im getting calls from both from ordinary factory work up to Field Technician,thats someone who runs a big chemical plant.One has been phoning back over and over with better offers,but im not interested.I would of taken it if i wanted a job.

I claimed contribution based JSA because im getting every penny i can out of them,ESA next for mental illness due to lockdown  .

[HousePriceMania]

What to make of this...

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-9667905/Bank-need-start-turning-tap-inflation-rises-says-Haldane.html

 

Bank of England may 'need to start turning off the tap' of QE as the economy is going 'gang-busters' and inflation is rising, says Andy Haldane

 

now....

 

 

Democracy anyone ?