Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bobthebuilder]

Just now, lid said:

The 2nd wave will be everyone waving goodbye to their jobs 

This.

People taking this like a jolly holiday are likely to find they have no job to go back to and the mortgage / loan holiday will be over.

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Anyone shorting Oil on way down? Leveraged as well x3.

Only for BIG KAHUNA BALLs mind.....

129% return between 8am and 11am today. 
 

I cannot upload the picture but Ticker For the daily short is:

3OIS ..... 

Ok so you've utilised a 'fully collaterised ETC' WTF!? We couldn't make this shit up if it weren't for the 'financial gurus'!

Which reminds me, I've got a Silver ETC which I've held since May/June last year and it hasn't made any money! In fact first thing tomorrow I'm going to sell the crock o.....

These ETCs ETFs they're all a CROCK!!! Why don't you just short the underlying 'asset' directly'??? YMMV 

PS Silver is supposed to be a hedge against a market crash, same for Gold, look at the bloody charts and when the market takes a shite, these 2 do as well!!! Aniother WTF!!! lol

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Potential 11.7mn unemployed according to Resolution Foundation.

Hard to see some retail jobs coming back now everyone's learned about contactless payment and online ordering.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2020/04/fears-for-retail-as-11-7m-could-be-furloughed-or-unemployed-in-coming-months/

As many as 11.7 million people across all sectors could be furloughed or unemployed over the next three months, according to a paper from an independent think tank Resolution Foundation.

The report said employees in the lowest-paying hospitality and retail sectors are most likely, 50 per cent more than average, to be affected.

The report entitled Launching An Economic Lifeboat: The Impact Of The Job Retention Scheme warned of the possible extent of joblessness, but pointed to the mitigation impact of the scheme.

“Although we estimate that non-working could increase by as much as 11.7 million in Q2 2020, this is heavily tilted towards use of the JRS (8.3 million employees),” it said.

“Unemployment could still rise sharply to 3.4 million (10 per cent) in Q2 2020, but because of the JRS it will not reach catastrophic levels.”

So therefore my question would be, how many furloughed staff will find themselves without a company to return to in Q3? The above suggests the JRS has fully secured these 8.3 million jobs indefinitely but we know that’s impossible, so unemployment by end of year much closer to 20+%?

”non-working” JRS the introduction to UBI?

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Vendetta said:

Huh? Are you drunk? What you chuntering about? 

3OIS boss - google comes up with wisdom tree, go to their shite website and they describe it as a 'fully collaterised ETC'

So what software are you using? Or are you giving your cash directly to Arfur Daily??? 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

Is there any possibility that this is the preceding manifestations of a ‘crack-up boom’....?

If the governments keep intervening and printing money and lowering IRs which they have done In:

2000 - Dot com Crash

2008 - Banking Crash

2020 - Coronavirus Crash

Then we could see people finally realising the weakness of the FIAT money system and dashing for assets and debt.

This could spiral out of control...ergo hyperinflation and collapse of currencies. 

Finally, someone else sees it. 

 

This could easily spiral out of control. 

Moneys worth jack shit now, just don't tell anyone 

[Barnsey]

11 minutes ago, confused said:

PS Silver is supposed to be a hedge against a market crash, same for Gold, look at the bloody charts and when the market takes a shite, these 2 do as well!!! Aniother WTF!!! lol

More margin calls

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Moneys worth jack shit now, just don't tell anyone

Hookers n blow boss, hookers n blow 

This is the truth of the matter (fuck I wanted to most a pic but can't!!) and the more folk catch on the more chance of a revolution.....o hold on, the fat fucks are too bust buying shit off amazon and talking shite on facetossers...

here's the quote

If any man's money can be taken by a so-called government, without his own personal consent, all his other rights are taken with it; for with his money the government can, and will, hire soldiers to stand over him, compel him to submit to its arbitrary will, and kill him if he resists.

Lysander Spooner

2 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

More margin calls

I'm not buying that shite excuse anymore, maybe the first time 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, confused said:

yesterday I wasn't really concerned about the oil futures price BUT TODAY HOLY F!!! The cash price just took another massive shit!!!

8$ a barrel on the cash market!!!

I can't believe RDSB is holding up so well! I want £9 again so I can go ALL IN!

To add, I've got a feeling the stock markets want to have another massive shit as well 

Get on with it Mr market.........

And if the governement doesn't end this stupid bloody lockdown soon THERE WILL BE NO BLOODY ECONOMY!!!!! 

House prices will be up tho 🤣🤣🤣🤣

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Passive mechanical ETF buying is going to be the painful lesson of this crisis IMO, too many people just buying the index and getting a whole load of crap with the gems.  Works in good times but really doesn't in bad.

At least the oil futures have some link to the physical product as shown when the fund blew up, if traders ever realise that the paper promise they hold doesn't actually have a link to anything tangible in another certain futures market (actual value $0?) and they cant take delivery then things will get really interesting.  

Bitcoin 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Surely these mortgage payment holidays won’t continue beyond these 3 months? At some point losses have to be realised right?

12 years and the feckers haven't taken any losses 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Finally, someone else sees it. 

 

This could easily spiral out of control. 

Moneys worth jack shit now, just don't tell anyone 

Am I the only one that will just wait for a durhamborn post along the lines of

"It's over.  Sell everything. Head for your bunker/shed" 

It really doesn't look good but it hasn't for years (As you say, 12 years)

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, Loki said:

Am I the only one that will just wait for a durhamborn post along the lines of

"It's over.  Sell everything. Head for your bunker/shed" 

It really doesn't look good but it hasn't for years (As you say, 12 years)

 

I'll be more concerned when he says, buy anything, buy centrica 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'll be more concerned when he says, buy anything, buy centrica 

 genuine LOL

[lid]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

Am I the only one that will just wait for a durhamborn post along the lines of

"It's over.  Sell everything. Head for your bunker/shed" 

It really doesn't look good but it hasn't for years (As you say, 12 years)

 

12 years a slave

[Loki]

Just now, lid said:

12 years a slave

Is that inflation adjusted?

[Sugarlips]

Shame they don’t go in depth in this extract but Hedgeye says “in Quad 4 you don’t touch oil”

 

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/83530-mccullough-oil-crashing-gravity-wins-when-the-fed-isn-t-buying?type=macro

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, confused said:

sure I hear you but the problem now is the oil price is gonna take the whole economy down with it!

Everyone is sat at home on their ever increasing FAT asses doing fuck all! Not that many folk have died at all.....it might be different with wave 2 in the autumn whenever but at the moment it's a dudd......even the hospitals are empty.......we're living in bloody clown world!!!! 

EDit: it's not just the economy......I suspect it's purely the Fed that is holding up the markets at the moment....the markets dive again it's taking folks wealth as well as their jobs!!!

SELL, SELL, SELL before it's too late!!!!  

Since when was cheap oil bad for an economy?.It is the Fed holding the markets up,but thats exactly how they work.They first inject into the capital markets,and that then enters the real economy.This time they also have government injecting massive fiscal amounts.The equity markets do still look very expensive given where we are,but there are very cheap areas within the market.There are big falls to come,but markets arent linear.Once they see the cycle ahead will be industrial they will pivot.There is lots of dislocation to come,but not all equity based.Southern house prices and bonds will take a lot of the pain .

Remember the basis of this thread was credit for companies is going to become expensive and not available for many.Pricing power is coming back,surviving this stage is key of course.

 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I wanted to post a jpeg of some really hot tottie on another thread and hit the same issue!

I've noticed jpeg don't upload now. I save a jpeg as a png then it uploads OK.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Potential 11.7mn unemployed according to Resolution Foundation.

Hard to see some retail jobs coming back now everyone's learned about contactless payment and online ordering.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2020/04/fears-for-retail-as-11-7m-could-be-furloughed-or-unemployed-in-coming-months/

As many as 11.7 million people across all sectors could be furloughed or unemployed over the next three months, according to a paper from an independent think tank Resolution Foundation.

The report said employees in the lowest-paying hospitality and retail sectors are most likely, 50 per cent more than average, to be affected.

The report entitled Launching An Economic Lifeboat: The Impact Of The Job Retention Scheme warned of the possible extent of joblessness, but pointed to the mitigation impact of the scheme.

“Although we estimate that non-working could increase by as much as 11.7 million in Q2 2020, this is heavily tilted towards use of the JRS (8.3 million employees),” it said.

“Unemployment could still rise sharply to 3.4 million (10 per cent) in Q2 2020, but because of the JRS it will not reach catastrophic levels.”

The irony is there is already massive underemployment in the UK.Most of the jobs going are the ones propped up with tax credits.Of course once they lose their 16 hours they have to claim Universal Credit instead.The welfare bill will be huge and obvious once things settle down government will have to cut welfare spending hard.However they might continue to go after pensions instead.Hard  to spin the yarn we are all living longer though after a pandemic.What im starting to see is lots of people who have always worked/tried etc suffering while the benefit class couldnt care less and the council/government workers similar.Lots of anger brewing.

Government policy for 3 decades has been to trap the decent hard working people into huge debt,sell them a lie about needing a flash car,holiday,everything,so as to trap them in mortgages so they will have to work forever.It was designed so that the government could tax them and keep the 20%-30% of scroungers at the bottom and the scroungers at the top happy.That is now being swept away.

The 70s inflation wasnt caused by oil,or unions,or anything else all the articles and books mention.It was caused because governments feared unemployment more than they feared "some" inflation and they had disinflation at their backs.That is where we will be in a few months.The only way governments can respond is to repeat the worlds of Viv Nicholson and "Spend spend spend".In future when someone mentions "the roaring 20s" the audience will have to ask the 1920s,or the 2020s?

[RickyBacker]

8 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

From the perspective of the electronic properties of graphene, Id take a look at TSMC, if you haven’t already. No bargain, as they’re the world’s number 1 foundry.

But they are excellent at introducing the technology boosters, at the right time, and in a low risk way. With Apple paying for it.

Graphene and other 2D materials are on their near term technology roadmaps.

Intel too, but they’ve lost a bit of their manufacturing touch recently. 

Interesting that you should mention TSMC as I live in Taiwan and have numerous friends over here that work for the company. Admittedly though, I've never considered the potential graphene link. Saying that... the more you research graphene, the more you come to realise that it can be used in pretty much everything.
Cheers for the heads up, I've always used my UK account to hold LSE shares, but maybe it's time to look into using my residency over here to see what options I have for investment.
 

[DurhamBorn]

A fantastic new doc by Michael Moore worth a watch for anyone interested in how fossil fuels have a lot of life.

 

[Transistor Man]

49 minutes ago, RickyBacker said:

Saying that... the more you research graphene, the more you come to realise that it can be used in pretty much everything.
 

There’s a huge amount of hype with graphene, on both the mechanical and electronic (and optical) sides. Similar to carbon nanotubes. 

TSMC are not a hype company. They are cautious, as they do real stuff. 

Once there is a viable application on the electronic-side, e.g. as an interconnect cap or barrier — that’s what they are looking at first, I’d bet on them doing it properly.

 

[MrXxxx]

15 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Passive mechanical ETF buying is going to be the painful lesson of this crisis IMO, too many people just buying the index and getting a whole load of crap with the gems.  Works in good times but really doesn't in bad

I considered this the other day and came up with the thesis that maybe the answer is not passive or active but a hybrid of both...when things are good/the market is stable go `hands off` passive, but in troubled times divert to an active approach buying individual stocks. This of course relies on two things:

1. Knowing when the change is about to happen, and so when to buy in/out of the approaches.

2. Knowing how pick/spot the winners in the active period otherwise you won't get the chance to move back to the passive approach when the time is right.

[CVG]

53 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I considered this the other day and came up with the thesis that maybe the answer is not passive or active but a hybrid of both...when things are good/the market is stable go `hands off` passive, but in troubled times divert to an active approach buying individual stocks. This of course relies on two things:

1. Knowing when the change is about to happen, and so when to buy in/out of the approaches.

2. Knowing how pick/spot the winners in the active period otherwise you won't get the chance to move back to the passive approach when the time is right.

In this scenario I would favour the standard balanced portfolio approach. Plan on allocating X% to passive market trackers and Y% to active stock selection. Once every 12mo or when % varies by more than +5%, rebalance.

I would still only allow the total equity asset % to be Z% +/- 5% of my overall portfolio.

[Majorpain]

Quote

 

Tui credit note? You can fuck right off! Fuck me and you want me to book by October?? I've been patient and your trying to give me a fucking piece of paper saying I can book with you again? I'd rather shit in my hands and fucking clap with my mouth open.

Friend just posted this on FB, TUI desperately clinging to what cash it has in the bank!  I can see this paper promise business getting nasty in all sectors.

[Craig]

42 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Friend just posted this on FB, TUI desperately clinging to what cash it has in the bank!  I can see this paper promise business getting nasty in all sectors.

Yep, we had a holiday booked with those fuckers. Fortunately only lost £100 deposit, as could see how it was going to pan out. Must've had about ten emails from them desperately begging to pay the remainder.