Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DoINeedOne]

45 minutes ago, Errol said:

GDX at 5yr+ highs.

GDX and GDXJ are going to be insane when gold is $5000+.

Was just starting to get back into gold miners over the past 2 weeks 

Only invested half of what i wanted to put back in still better than zero...

Maybe i might get a chance...

[Cosmic]

50 minutes ago, Errol said:

GDX at 5yr+ highs.

GDX and GDXJ are going to be insane when gold is $5000+.

Funnily enough I was just eyeing GDX today with a few to take some profits and either increase my stake in GDXJ or to add to the war chest. Would have loved to have picked up some more last month but I had enough already

[Errol]

I'm still buying IAUP.

[Hardhat]

Yeah I hoped to get a bit more into GDX/J before they started to run.

Then again, I think we might be seeing a melt up here, before a brief drop and then off to the races. There might well be an entry point coming later this year.

Check out @DaveHContrarian on twitter for a miners road map.

[Errol]

My only roadmap is that gold is going to $10,000+. I would still be buying on anything up to $5,000.

[SillyBilly]

Anybody follow battery technology developments? Perhaps we can start sharing intel on these companies/developments too? Energy storage and green power go hand-in-hand.

Has anybody come across a British start-up called ConFlow. The technology is so out there (self-charging battery using the atmosphere) I am thinking this has to be quack science at scale for the most part? Don't seem to have got anyway with it. I'd have thought a big company would have snapped them up already if it had any legs.

http://www.conflowpower.com/

 

[Errol]

Gold / Special Drawing Rights weekly plot has spoken. Firm breakout of ~9yr base formation. Near exact structure triggered late 2005 vaulting Gold/SDR from 288 to 1238. Current formation foreshadowing SDR 5,323 per lot.

 

 

[SillyBilly]

"The amount of electricity consumed fell by nearly 15 per cent between 2010 and 2019, with the economy using 50 terawatt hours (TWh) less electricity in 2019 than it had done in 2010. That’s enough electricity to power half Britain’s cars and taxis if they were all electric vehicles".

Reading that in an article and it stood out to me. We often here that we can't go all electric cars as the grid wouldn't be able to cope but will this trend in efficiency continue? In which case we could go all electric and perhaps have the same or lower base load than we do now.

[S Brule]

Does anyone else follow that Raoul Pal fella of RealVision on Twitter? He's made some good calls in the past. He's posted a link where you can get his April report for free, here is the link to the pdf in googledrive that is in the email (in case you don't want give your email address to sign up).

TBH, I've not read it yet, it's 120 pages so I'll save it for the weekend. But skimming through it does mention debt deflation a few times so I thought I'd share it here (he does say share with friends and family haha).

[Errol]

9 minutes ago, Errol said:

Gold / Special Drawing Rights weekly plot has spoken. Firm breakout of ~9yr base formation. Near exact structure triggered late 2005 vaulting Gold/SDR from 288 to 1238. Current formation foreshadowing SDR 5,323 per lot.

 

 

 

[Thorn]

Unbelievable action these days lads. DB once again Thank You for all you’ve done to point a direction. Unreal. 
 

So not wishing to derail everybody from watching WTI, Au, Ag and everything- but some of my Ferrari pizzas have a soggy bottom. Any ideas- are the bases too thick?
 

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Unbelievable action these days lads. DB once again Thank You for all you’ve done to point a direction. Unreal. 
 

So not wishing to derail everybody from watching WTI, Au, Ag and everything- but some of my Ferrari pizzas have a soggy bottom. Any ideas- are the bases too thick?
 

Caputo 00 flour, for 2 pizzas 400g 220ml warm water,fresh yeast two teaspoons of olive oil,two teaspoons sugar wait 15 mins for yeast to bubble,good kneed the add a little salt leave to rise for 1.5 hours then kneed  again.Iv found any soggy bottom is not letting the dough prove long enough and not enough kneeding.Bases need to be thin as they rise a lot.Iv found fresh yeast is best,i buy a big lump and cut into 20g bits,wrap in clingfilm and freeze them all.Then just get one out for two or three pizzas.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

38 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Unbelievable action these days lads. DB once again Thank You for all you’ve done to point a direction. Unreal. 
 

So not wishing to derail everybody from watching WTI, Au, Ag and everything- but some of my Ferrari pizzas have a soggy bottom. Any ideas- are the bases too thick?
 

Do you have a pizza stone? 

 

I construct the (thin crust) pizza on the heated stone so its already started cooking before ive even put on the sauce, no soggy bottom. 

I do find topping selection can be a factor tho. 

One thing to try is crack a egg in the centre of your pizza with 5 or 6 mins remaining, wont help the soggy bottom but its tasty as hell. 

[spunko]

I think a "ferrari pizza" is one of those posh pizza makers... normally the cause is not getting the oven/stone hot enough. It must be bloody hot.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Errol said:

GDX at 5yr+ highs.

GDX and GDXJ are going to be insane when gold is $5000+.

I msut say,I don't feel like selling anything yet.Nice to see oceana clearing $2CAD for the first time in what feels like an eternity.BArrick at $26 and Newmont at $62 is incredibly bullish for gold stocks.The big boys are moving.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, S Brule said:

Does anyone else follow that Raoul Pal fella of RealVision on Twitter? He's made some good calls in the past. He's posted a link where you can get his April report for free, here is the link to the pdf in googledrive that is in the email (in case you don't want give your email address to sign up).

TBH, I've not read it yet, it's 120 pages so I'll save it for the weekend. But skimming through it does mention debt deflation a few times so I thought I'd share it here (he does say share with friends and family haha).

Reading now and this is brilliant 

[Transistor Man]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Good discussion about graphene here recently. And some good individual companies mentioned. But for me probably too risky to try to select small pioneer type companies as I don't understand enough about the graphene industry. 

So i've been looking into a less risky approach to getting some exposure to graphene. Apparently tech companies - Samsung, Nokia, IBM, have done lots of research into graphene and have many patents. My thinking is that if there is a future big market correction I will attempt to buy these shares if they get cheaper.

Does anyone have comments about doing this strategy, or perhaps alternative ideas, re. getting graphene exposure without buying startup companies? 

I guess your strategy makes sense. There’s been a lot of hype in this area. But I doubt there are any large volume applications coming in the near future.

Without looking it up, Samsung will definitely be very involved in research in these areas. Probably batteries and memory focused.  for future electronic devices, other 2D materials are perhaps more promising than graphene. Like MoS2

I think Nokia are interested in graphene sensors.

IBM are a strange one, since they got out of microelectronics manufacturing a few years ago. The microelectronics business, it’s excellent engineers, and 16000 patents( no typo!), were sold to globalfoundries. 

But IBM are still very interested in quantum computing. That’s a possible application for graphene. But This stuff is a tiny part of their business though. 

on the mechanical properties side, I’d look what Toray are doing.

[sancho panza]

South Africa in brace brace mode.It feels like the authors are looking for crumbs of comfort.Gonna be a long winter down there.

 

https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Property/property-industry-braces-for-deep-drawn-out-recession-to-hit-housing-market-20200416

Property industry braces for 'deep, drawn out' recession to hit housing market

Apr 16 2020 14:48

Carin Smith

 

The FNB House Price Index (HPI) for March show that house price appreciation slowed to 2.8% y/y in March, the lowest print since May 2011. The impact of the lockdown on volumes and prices is yet to reflect in the data.

The latest FNB barometer report says search engine data shows a rebound in web traffic to property portals in SA since lockdown.

Highest prices, biggest bleed

FNB forecasts that the biggest decline in nominal house price growth can be expected in the upper end of the housing market.

"We expect higher-priced segments to fall deeper into negative territory – a nominal price decline – due in part to excess supply and heightened uncertainty. Middle segments are also expected to slow, and register sub-1% price growth, mainly due to weakness in labour markets," he told Fin24

"The low-priced segment will also slow significantly, as consumers here are highly sensitive to economic shocks, but is expected to perform relatively better compared to other segments due to stock shortages and the relative immobility of property owners in this segment. We expect growth here to be slightly above inflation," he said.

Sudden fears

According to Mkhwanazi, the coronavirus outbreak has driven sudden changes in behaviour among home buyers and sellers.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that fears around the impact of the virus and how long it will take to contain have led some sellers to take their homes off the market.

From the buyer perspective, restrictions on human movement, and "avoidance behaviour" in general, have reduced the number of buyer enquiries.

Property economist Erwin Rode, of Rode and Associates, says SA is currently in a three-layered recession. Over the past 12 years structural impediments have led to a deceleration in economic growth, he says. At the same time, SA has been in a "normal" cyclical downswing as well – and then came the impact of Covid-19.

'Deep and drawn-out' recession

"This is, therefore, not a normal recession – it is going to be a deep and drawn-out affair.

"The implication for the property market is that few transactions will take place for a long time as a result of persisting low confidence levels," Rode told Fin24.

"Incomes will be eroded and forced sales will become more common as consumers lose their jobs and are forced to accept wage and salary cuts. It is a catastrophe for estate agents and brokers."

Seeff says a decline in sales volumes can already be observed, following the weakening of the economy over the last year, and he expects this will persist.

No cash flow

Dr Andrew Golding, chief executive of Pam Golding Properties, says the reality is that the closure of the Deeds Office during the lockdown has effectively terminated cash flow. While the industry is still operating in some way, this also means that, until such time as property transfers can take place, real estate agents and agencies are unable to generate any revenue.

"Where the market will be [after] this crisis is really anyone's guess, but the hope is that there will be pent up demand from transactions that were already in progress," according to Golding.

"A potential negative for the property market, however, is that a severe recession and resultant increase in unemployment will generally make both buyers and sellers worse off and, therefore, hamper the property market other than where there is distressed selling speculative and buying."

He foresees that this would represent a significant headwind to the housing market and is likely to persist until such time as the economy starts showing early signs of recovery.

"Having said that, however, given the extreme volatility currently being experienced in global stock markets, it is probable that, as has been seen in past times of great turmoil, one could ultimately see an increased confidence in bricks and mortar among investors and home buyers," Golding noted.

Seeff expressed a similar hope for recovery. "We believe […] that the Covid-19 lockdown emergence phase will be characterised by pent-up demand in the primary residential market as buyers are eagerly waiting to take advantage of market conditions, especially in the sub-R1.5 million – up to R3 million in some areas – sector," he said.

"We are not saying volumes will spike drastically, but we expect a level of demand to be there. Our branches have already done deals 'virtually' with price agreed, but the offers are subject to physical viewings once the lockdown lifts

Caspar Lee, co-founder of Proper Living, specialising in student housing development, expects buying behaviour will change, but believes there is room for recovery. 

"Confidence is low, but there is relief in knowing that investment in the property market is still one of the better investments to make. In a time of crisis, it's a high risk-high reward situation," he said.

[JMD]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Picture paints a 1000 words.I repost it,because I think it put things in perpsective.How many millions have been affected mentally or health/wealthwise by the shut down?

In a year or more,there is a chance that the annual death rate may appear to have been within normal parameters .

 

SP, interesting graph, however the BBC have advised that, for the benefit of my own mental health, I should attempt to 'unsee' that graph of yours... apparently you may even have committed a hate crime, of is it a non crime hate incident!

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Transistor Man said:

I guess your strategy makes sense. There’s been a lot of hype in this area. But I doubt there are any large volume applications coming in the near future.

Without looking it up, Samsung will definitely be very involved in research in these areas. Probably batteries and memory focused.  for future electronic devices, other 2D materials are perhaps more promising than graphene. Like MoS2

I think Nokia are interested in graphene sensors.

IBM are a strange one, since they got out of microelectronics manufacturing a few years ago. The microelectronics business, it’s excellent engineers, and 16000 patents( no typo!), were sold to globalfoundries. 

But IBM are still very interested in quantum computing. That’s a possible application for graphene. But This stuff is a tiny part of their business though. 

on the mechanical properties side, I’d look what Toray are doing.

Thanks TransistorMan, yes your right IBM is a bit of a misnomer here re grahene, but then again maybe a punt for quantum computing. I'm watching Devs on TV and it has spiked my interest in qbits!

[JMD]

Might be useful for some here                                                                                                        https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

Might be useful for some here                                                                                                        https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Where's the confusion option

[King Penda]

Well you guys have the cash to invest and I have an asset to try and use I need to find an excuse to get the X out back into her own house without another breakdown then I can try get another lodger .and I think I’ve found a good potencial

lodger he just does not know it yet lol 

[RickyBacker]

13 hours ago, JMD said:

Good discussion about graphene here recently. And some good individual companies mentioned. But for me probably too risky to try to select small pioneer type companies as I don't understand enough about the graphene industry. 

So i've been looking into a less risky approach to getting some exposure to graphene. Apparently tech companies - Samsung, Nokia, IBM, have done lots of research into graphene and have many patents. My thinking is that if there is a future big market correction I will attempt to buy these shares if they get cheaper.

Does anyone have comments about doing this strategy, or perhaps alternative ideas, re. getting graphene exposure without buying startup companies? 

Agree about the risk of the small start ups... and just to reiterate that companies I mentioned were in response to a ... "Does anybody have any small cap / multi-bag / penny share type stocks"

With that said... Another way to look at it is to find which companies are working with the small graphene companies to develop their products. There are numerous examples due to graphene being such an amazing material. For example, the company I mentioned have research collaborations with big Fortune 500 companies looking at (i) adding graphene to plastics to reduce weight in packaging (ii) adding graphene into concrete to make it stronger / use less concrete (iii) adding graphene into textiles to make smart clothing... fitness, or as a medical use, smart bandages. (iv) adding graphene to oil and gas drilling equipment to make them stronger, less likely to break. (V) adding graphene to tyres to make them last longer.
The list really does go on and on... the sticking point at the moment is the high cost of graphene. However, if the savings outweigh that cost then it's game on for those companies and the graphene start-ups.

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, interesting graph, however the BBC have advised that, for the benefit of my own mental health, I should attempt to 'unsee' that graph of yours... apparently you may even have committed a hate crime, of is it a non crime hate incident!

I have decided to `un-clap` the government this evening for the awful way they have handled this `pandemic`....and hopefully I won't have to wait another five years to `un-vote` them!