Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Transistor Man]

49 minutes ago, RickyBacker said:

Saying that... the more you research graphene, the more you come to realise that it can be used in pretty much everything.
 

There’s a huge amount of hype with graphene, on both the mechanical and electronic (and optical) sides. Similar to carbon nanotubes. 

TSMC are not a hype company. They are cautious, as they do real stuff. 

Once there is a viable application on the electronic-side, e.g. as an interconnect cap or barrier — that’s what they are looking at first, I’d bet on them doing it properly.

 

[Jesus Wept]

Hi all

Be warned - those trading oil ETFs eg Wisdom Tree CRUD WTI etc it is not a one way bet as one would think....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fund-that-ate-the-oil-market-11587489608

A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing—especially in the oil market.

Individual investors conditioned by years of (mostly) being rewarded for buying the dips will become acquainted with that proverb as they absorb losses in a popular exchange-traded fund that allowed them to buy virtual barrels of crude. This time there could be collateral damage.

The travails of the United States Oil Fund,ticker USO, in some ways mirror the collapse of inverse volatility note XIV two years ago, but with two key differences: Traders who sold XIV in time had made a fortune, and the repercussions of its 95% collapse were limited to an arcane corner of financial markets

 

The travails of the United States Oil Fund,ticker USO, in some ways mirror the collapse of inverse volatility note XIV two years ago, but with two key differences: Traders who sold XIV in time had made a fortune, and the repercussions of its 95% collapse were limited to an arcane corner of financial markets.

 

“Thinking you buy an ETF and it will mirror the oil price and you can ride out 50-70% falls..  but in 10-20 years you will have x 20+ your money so don’t worry.....”

Think again. I think this could blow up in people’s faces. 
 

Wanting exposure to oil in this market? Im thinking just the big players; RDSB, BP, Exxon, Phillips etc etc.... as all the little ones fall / competition is eaten up/dies at sub $10 a barrel.

Admittedly I’m learning fast and no expert. So Not advice! DYOR etc.....

Anyone KnoW the best way to buy into Oil long term?
Without using an ETF?

Without just buying into shares of the big players? 
 

Surely you can just buy the commodity? How do you do that say on Hargreaves & Lansdowne?

I’ve never traded commodities so apologies for stupid question. Same would go for gold? How to trade it electronically on a broker site? (I know how to use the physical bullion suppliers in post).

Good luck out there - it’s very choppy! No easy gains or sure winners! 

I won’t go near ETFs now. The new CDOs, MBo’s etc. 

@confused alluded to this earlier on in this thread. Be careful they stink of shit. 

 

 

 

[MrXxxx]

15 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Passive mechanical ETF buying is going to be the painful lesson of this crisis IMO, too many people just buying the index and getting a whole load of crap with the gems.  Works in good times but really doesn't in bad

I considered this the other day and came up with the thesis that maybe the answer is not passive or active but a hybrid of both...when things are good/the market is stable go `hands off` passive, but in troubled times divert to an active approach buying individual stocks. This of course relies on two things:

1. Knowing when the change is about to happen, and so when to buy in/out of the approaches.

2. Knowing how pick/spot the winners in the active period otherwise you won't get the chance to move back to the passive approach when the time is right.

[CVG]

53 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I considered this the other day and came up with the thesis that maybe the answer is not passive or active but a hybrid of both...when things are good/the market is stable go `hands off` passive, but in troubled times divert to an active approach buying individual stocks. This of course relies on two things:

1. Knowing when the change is about to happen, and so when to buy in/out of the approaches.

2. Knowing how pick/spot the winners in the active period otherwise you won't get the chance to move back to the passive approach when the time is right.

In this scenario I would favour the standard balanced portfolio approach. Plan on allocating X% to passive market trackers and Y% to active stock selection. Once every 12mo or when % varies by more than +5%, rebalance.

I would still only allow the total equity asset % to be Z% +/- 5% of my overall portfolio.

[Majorpain]

Quote

 

Tui credit note? You can fuck right off! Fuck me and you want me to book by October?? I've been patient and your trying to give me a fucking piece of paper saying I can book with you again? I'd rather shit in my hands and fucking clap with my mouth open.

Friend just posted this on FB, TUI desperately clinging to what cash it has in the bank!  I can see this paper promise business getting nasty in all sectors.

[Craig]

42 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Friend just posted this on FB, TUI desperately clinging to what cash it has in the bank!  I can see this paper promise business getting nasty in all sectors.

Yep, we had a holiday booked with those fuckers. Fortunately only lost £100 deposit, as could see how it was going to pan out. Must've had about ten emails from them desperately begging to pay the remainder.

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Friend just posted this on FB, TUI desperately clinging to what cash it has in the bank!  I can see this paper promise business getting nasty in all sectors.

You have to feel for these companies though,governments forcing them to lose all their equity.I was thinking earlier.I own a few Card Factory.They are forced to close,Tesco over the road and Home Bargains both sell cards but are open.How can the government justify that?.They are in affect coming to my house stealing my capital and giving it to Tesco.There will be lots of angry people out there for lot of different reasons,but mostly it comes down to the government getting the virus action all wrong.Still flying in from New York yet Tui cant sell a holiday to Benidorm.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 20/04/2020 at 20:33, TheCountOfNowhere said:

... and never buy centrica shares. 

 

I bought back my entire holding yesterday...

FFS, today they are DOWN 6% ALREADY!

[Bricks & Mortar]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I own a few Card Factory.They are forced to close,Tesco over the road and Home Bargains both sell cards but are open.How can the government justify that?.They are in affect coming to my house stealing my capital and giving it to Tesco.

Have Card Factory actually been forced to close?  Sure, we had government ministers SAYING "all non-essential shops". 
But, as far as I can see, no changes were made to the The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020.  At least, as printed on http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/contents/made
That legislation only forced cafes, hairdressers, pubs etc to close.

Are we so far down the road that police are enforcing the whim of government ministers, without an actual law to back it up?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

30 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I bought back my entire holding yesterday...

FFS, today they are DOWN 6% ALREADY!

[Talking Monkey]

12 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Second leg down coming. 

Jon Browne Ex CEO of BP was saying today that oil could be on its knees for years ..... (add in climate change and renewables to Coronavirus). 

Lets wait and see eh? 

Fear really starting to creep into the markets now. 

A few 5% + drops on the indices coming and suspension of trading..... 

DOW to sub 18000 and FTSE sub 4600....

....and then what ...????

MORE STIMULUS!! 
 

Bring it on.

Crack-up BOOM cometh..  

Not sure why Ex BP CEO is saying what he is saying. With the supply destruction taking place and the inevitable return to regular economic activity, the tightrope of supply/demand balance will reappear at a  much lower pricepoint than before the lockdown/slowdown. The worlds capacity to add green energy sources to replace oil is a multi decade endeavor. 

Maybe when they roll out folks to opine on shit the desire to conform and go along with the prevailing narrative is huge, along with the fact trying to explain a contrarian position to a most likely feeble minded journalist would be a non starter so the easy option of going along with the prevailing narrative is taken

[Democorruptcy]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

You have to feel for these companies though,governments forcing them to lose all their equity.I was thinking earlier.I own a few Card Factory.They are forced to close,Tesco over the road and Home Bargains both sell cards but are open.How can the government justify that?.They are in affect coming to my house stealing my capital and giving it to Tesco.There will be lots of angry people out there for lot of different reasons,but mostly it comes down to the government getting the virus action all wrong.Still flying in from New York yet Tui cant sell a holiday to Benidorm.

That's the danger of buying into a more specialist high street business. Aldi went into a deal with them, so they will still be selling a few for you?

[Democorruptcy]

54 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I bought back my entire holding yesterday...

FFS, today they are DOWN 6% ALREADY!

FFS.

I wish people would stop mentioning negative figures that I'm trying to avoid looking at. I don't do red. 

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Hi all

Be warned - those trading oil ETFs eg Wisdom Tree CRUD WTI etc it is not a one way bet as one would think....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fund-that-ate-the-oil-market-11587489608

A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing—especially in the oil market.

Individual investors conditioned by years of (mostly) being rewarded for buying the dips will become acquainted with that proverb as they absorb losses in a popular exchange-traded fund that allowed them to buy virtual barrels of crude. This time there could be collateral damage.

The travails of the United States Oil Fund,ticker USO, in some ways mirror the collapse of inverse volatility note XIV two years ago, but with two key differences: Traders who sold XIV in time had made a fortune, and the repercussions of its 95% collapse were limited to an arcane corner of financial markets

 

The travails of the United States Oil Fund,ticker USO, in some ways mirror the collapse of inverse volatility note XIV two years ago, but with two key differences: Traders who sold XIV in time had made a fortune, and the repercussions of its 95% collapse were limited to an arcane corner of financial markets.

 

“Thinking you buy an ETF and it will mirror the oil price and you can ride out 50-70% falls..  but in 10-20 years you will have x 20+ your money so don’t worry.....”

Think again. I think this could blow up in people’s faces. 
 

Wanting exposure to oil in this market? Im thinking just the big players; RDSB, BP, Exxon, Phillips etc etc.... as all the little ones fall / competition is eaten up/dies at sub $10 a barrel.

Admittedly I’m learning fast and no expert. So Not advice! DYOR etc.....

Anyone KnoW the best way to buy into Oil long term?
Without using an ETF?

Without just buying into shares of the big players? 
 

Surely you can just buy the commodity? How do you do that say on Hargreaves & Lansdowne?

I’ve never traded commodities so apologies for stupid question. Same would go for gold? How to trade it electronically on a broker site? (I know how to use the physical bullion suppliers in post).

Good luck out there - it’s very choppy! No easy gains or sure winners! 

I won’t go near ETFs now. The new CDOs, MBo’s etc. 

@confused alluded to this earlier on in this thread. Be careful they stink of shit. 

 

 

 

For trading commodities you could use a spreadbet/cfd account. Look into the holding costs as they charge overnight funding if you hold the position overnight rather than day trade.

[AlfredTheLittle]

58 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I bought back my entire holding yesterday...

FFS, today they are DOWN 6% ALREADY!

I thought I was clever because I got in at 44p last month... It turned out I wasn't 😁

[sancho panza]

Bigger picture

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Second leg down coming. 

Jon Browne Ex CEO of BP was saying today that oil could be on its knees for years ..... (add in climate change and renewables to Coronavirus). 

 

It'd be more telling to know if he's offloaded oil shares during march or bought more?

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Not sure why Ex BP CEO is saying what he is saying. With the supply destruction taking place and the inevitable return to regular economic activity, the tightrope of supply/demand balance will reappear at a  much lower pricepoint than before the lockdown/slowdown. The worlds capacity to add green energy sources to replace oil is a multi decade endeavor. 

Maybe when they roll out folks to opine on shit the desire to conform and go along with the prevailing narrative is huge, along with the fact trying to explain a contrarian position to a most likely feeble minded journalist would be a non starter so the easy option of going along with the prevailing narrative is taken

Or he wants to keep buying cheap shares for his grandchildrens trust fund.The doc i put up is well worth watching for anyone with a couple of hours.

[DoINeedOne]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

A fantastic new doc by Michael Moore worth a watch for anyone interested in how fossil fuels have a lot of life.

 

Just sat down and watch that great documentary similar thoughts to the book i posted about few pages back

[Don Coglione]

10 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

FFS.

I wish people would stop mentioning negative figures that I'm trying to avoid looking at. I don't do red. 

Don't log in to my account then!

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

It'd be more telling to know if he's offloaded oil shares during march or bought more?

....or planning any acquisitions of firms going to go bust if the oil price stays low for longer

[DurhamBorn]

All this talk about the company whos name shall not be mentioned.What about Drax up 50% from bottom ladder?,dividend maintained,highest riser on the market.Im almost tempted to sell  ,pull up the search box,type C,,,,,,N,,,,,,,A,,,and go bangbusters,,il have a cup of tea instead i think 

4 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just sat down and watch that great documentary similar thoughts to the book i posted about few pages back

Yes fantastic isnt it.Well worth watching for anyone.

[Talking Monkey]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

It'd be more telling to know if he's offloaded oil shares during march or bought more?

Best proxy to knowing that would be what the current executives of BP are doing, in fact what the executives of all the majors are doing, i'm guessing they're buying big time

[sancho panza]

10 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

....or planning any acquisitions of firms going to go bust if the oil price stays low for longer

Exactly,on the basis he's talking about XOM/BP/RDSB won't be running the slide rule over any of teh following

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Friend just posted this on FB, TUI desperately clinging to what cash it has in the bank!  I can see this paper promise business getting nasty in all sectors.

On the BBC today they did a piece with a travel "expert" chap from Which and 2 Tui customers wanting refunds. The chap said the governbankment should create a fund to give customers all their money back. 

Have I got that right? My taxes are supposed to bail out a travel firm with HQ in Germany and hotels in such as Spain and Greece etc. OK Tui employ some staff in the UK and reps abroad but redeploy them in staycations in this country and the holidaymakers would be boosting our economy not Spain, Greece etc. Thomas Cook wasn't much of an advert for a taxpayers propping up holiday firms.