Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Shamone]

8 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Define a real asset? 

Land? House? Gold? 

All of these can be taken from you, nothing would surprise me now, the Commyservatives look to be capable of anything. 

A gun might be a useful asset to own? 

Parcels of land in various countries might be the best bet.  A camper van or a barge, lest you cant be tied down. 

The one world blair government might get you anyway whatever ypu do. 

Come to think of it, only thing now worth having is masses of debt. 

 

Sir, your health and frugal lifestyle are paramount - especially in the years to come! With these you will already be in the top 10% and can be swift and agile!

[Shamone]

8 hours ago, Loki said:

Stay away from /biz/

 

Christ it’s something else, isn’t it?

[StrugglingMillennial]

46 minutes ago, confused said:

RDSB cuts DIVI big time!!!!

Edit: the amount of viagra the markets are getting I wouldn't be surprised if the stock price holds up 

Yes i just read the same, im not surprised they have cut it because everyone else is tightening up.

[Fully Detached]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Absolutely no apology needed.  I'm with you, at least in part as have a mix of objectives.  Indeed I see them all at play regardless.  Wealth preservation requires as much a diversified set of strategies as assets.  So, for example, I have trading, wealth preservation, and income portfolios.  For wealth preservation, I follow the Permanent Portfolio but see the PM section as being more about hard assets, ideally outside the pure financial system.  Land would be one such asset as well as PMs.  I also question the bond holding, but vacillate with my NS&I holdings (cash or bonds?).  Normal bonds are a good anchor but I worry about their interim picture as they have relatively limited scope for appreciation as they approach zero to mild negative yield.  NS&I are not true bonds as the capital is not at risk but it is as close as I comfortably want to go (other than in the short term).  Again, I agree on your equity approach (maybe some other sectors too).  I too have a financial strength/low debt focus in my selection criteria (e.g. cash flows, quick ratios, debt to capital ratios).  The key concern with debt is what it has been used for (i.e. productively not share buy backs, etc) and will they continue to have the cash flows to service that data, maybe at higher rates.  CGT has so far been a voluntary tax, as the real rich folk call it!  Alas, I thought the NS&I certificates were moving to CPI!  You are right to be concerned about the NS&I being denominated in sterling and also, a period of deflation would not be good for returns.  I however hold them as much for the relative security (HMG) and asset diversification as anything else.  Anyways, a good post thanks.

That's really helpful, many thanks. I must admit I haven't checked whether the NS&I Certs moved to CPI - I've received letters every year telling me that the interest rate paid on top has dropped to infinitessimally small percentages, but I thought the linking remained the same. If they've switched to CPI then that will be a consideration in whether I hold on to them or not.

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

everyone else is tightening up

certainly should apply to those up to their eyes in debt! BUT the governments and CBs seem intent on throwing money to every skint tramp and their scabby dog 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

49 minutes ago, Shamone said:

Sir, your health and frugal lifestyle are paramount - especially in the years to come! With these you will already be in the top 10% and can be swift and agile!

I've been swift and agile for 12 years now.

I still dont see any safe assets worth putting cash in.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

16 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

easily done.....

I've just had a read of their company info on HL and I believe they are involved in the important business sector of bibbly bollocks (to quote Mrs S). I might buy £250 worth to make you feel better....

Best investment i've ever made.

 

Mobile Streams Plc

LON: MOS

Follow

 

0.34 GBX +0.075 (28.30%)

30 Apr, 08:58 BST · Disclaimer

 

I have to thank DB for suggesting MOS, tho he did get the continent wrong.

[nirvana]

@TheCountOfNowhere think that sums up 'investing' this last month, just shoot your money everywhere and anywhere..........just don't forget your stop loss on the way down or else you might get 'Centrica'ed' 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

16 minutes ago, confused said:

@TheCountOfNowhere think that sums up 'investing' this last month, just shoot your money everywhere and anywhere..........just don't forget your stop loss on the way down or else you might get 'Centrica'ed' 

I think I posted a few pages back..."it doesn't matter what you buy".  If money is being throw about it'll all go up, mostly.

Anyway, I've sold my £500 investment in moss and kept the £200  of free money in there, that was about 40,000 share...I'll hope they go to £10  More like to 0 tho.  Free ride tho

 

My holdings have gone up 10% in a few day, losses now < 10%.

The nameless share and BT are the ones that have killed me.

 

 

[Jesus Wept]

1 hour ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Yes i just read the same, im not surprised they have cut it because everyone else is tightening up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-30/shell-cuts-dividend-as-pandemic-hammers-energy-prices-demand
 

Only 7% down in early trade. 

Holding at its morning low of 1350p

I cannot see it going below 1200p anytime soon. 

BP down 2%
 

 

[Wheeler]

58 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

That's really helpful, many thanks. I must admit I haven't checked whether the NS&I Certs moved to CPI - I've received letters every year telling me that the interest rate paid on top has dropped to infinitessimally small percentages, but I thought the linking remained the same. If they've switched to CPI then that will be a consideration in whether I hold on to them or not.

They are switching to CPI as they rollover at the end of the term. I’ve got a 5 year one that matures in May and they’ve written to me to say it will go to CPI if I renew it. 

CPI might be closer to (or even higher than) RPI if we get a collapse in house prices!

[AWW]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Harley what do you think about Bitcoin?.Im actually quite tempted to buy some.Iv been looking at it a bit like silver lately.Tiny amount compared to world liquidity.That means "if" people chose to it has the chance to be a Tulip bubble asset,as silver has.

I bought a hundred quid's worth at the tail end of last year. There's not (and never will be) much of it, and if the various (IMO unlikely) predictions of it becoming a widely-recognised store of value are true, that £100 will be more than enough to ensure that one doesn't miss out. But I won't care if it goes to zero either.

[Shamone]

46 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I've been swift and agile for 12 years now.

I still dont see any safe assets worth putting cash in.

Good man. I would humbly suggest that in the clusterfuck of a world economy that has been created over the last century, there IS no “safe” asset. I’d say invest in yourself. Land, maybe. Maybe buy some physical shiny and bury it away from you. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, Shamone said:

Good man. I would humbly suggest that in the clusterfuck of a world economy that has been created over the last century, there IS no “safe” asset. I’d say invest in yourself. Land, maybe. Maybe buy some physical shiny and bury it away from you. 

Cant disagree with that.

Might buy a forest next week

[Shamone]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Cant disagree with that.

Might buy a forest next week

I think land or buried shiny stuff would be the only place I would want to park cash if I was trying to keep it “safe.”

[NogintheNog]

On 15/03/2020 at 10:47, NogintheNog said:

On 08/03/2020 at 15:01, Cattle Prod said:

On 08/03/2020 at 11:33, NogintheNog said:

I'm starting to wonder whether this is the pin that pricks multiple bubbles (to quote Peter Schiff), and that we do get a much lower oil price. I'm convinced that the future price of oil is way above $43 just as I'm convinced the future price of Gold is way above $1000/ounce. The question is what is the path to those future prices. I'm now down on BP, RDSB, evens on TOT. But I've just reset my ladders for lower prices still.

There is also the possibility that using the "never let a good crisis go to waste" that these companies will cut their dividends in such extraordinary times! Is an 8-10 yield justified with the US 10 year at less than 1%?

Shell hasn't cut dividend since world war 2. So that includes the Cold War, Cuban Missile Crisis, oil at $9.55 etc etc. This is nothing. Some other companies might, but I don't think Shell will. BP only cut theirs during Macondo when it looked like they might go bust, and reinstated it shortly afterwards. 

CP, are you sure this is nothing? I appreciate you are much closer to the machinery of the oil industry but those examples were all in a much less connected world with oil used maybe more for direct energy generation and less so for consumer consumption of goods and air travel which has ballooned over the last 30 years. That huge consumption tap is being turned off as we speak.

IAG openly talking to their staff about BA's survival??? Not sure if any of them are actually solvent with the cuts they are all making

I'll take the plaudits later

However despite the dividend cut I'm surprised just how elevated some of these oil majors have remained!

BA/IAG  effectively confirming  yesterday they are gonna use a lot less JetA1!

[NogintheNog]

7 minutes ago, Shamone said:

Good man. I would humbly suggest that in the clusterfuck of a world economy that has been created over the last century, there IS no “safe” asset. I’d say invest in yourself. Land, maybe. Maybe buy some physical shiny and bury it away from you. 

My brother who lives in deepest darkest Wales has just bought some more woodland. He is effectively self sufficient in heat as his house is heated by a wood burning Arga for central heating and a woodburner.

He just needs to generate some electricity!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

However despite the dividend cut I'm surprised just how elevated some of these oil majors have remained!

 

Spot on. It's all about the magicked up money.  it's a total fraud.

[Fully Detached]

30 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

They are switching to CPI as they rollover at the end of the term. I’ve got a 5 year one that matures in May and they’ve written to me to say it will go to CPI if I renew it. 

CPI might be closer to (or even higher than) RPI if we get a collapse in house prices!

Ah thanks, I have some due to roll over in May as well, so will be affected. The others were all last February I think so I'd better double check them as well. Arguably I suppose it's not a problem while deflation is the order of the day anyway so perhaps the safety guarantee makes them worth holding on to for a while. It'll also make it an easier decision for me if I want to cash them in at some point, knowing that the loss of the year's interest and index linking isn't going to equate to that much.

[NogintheNog]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Spot on. It's all about the magicked up money.  it's a total fraud.

It's been a total fraud since 1971, since Nixon took the world off the Gold standard 'temporarily'

They've been blowing bubbles ever since, and when one crashes they just blow another one. There's more printing to be done for sure. We can't get too angry about it, just need to get up and dance!

[PaulParanoia]

16 hours ago, Loki said:

Do you think this will be the summer sell-off David Hunter mentions?

I'm wondering if the old saying 'Sell in May and Go Away' will be particularly true this year.  There should be a steady stream of profit warnings over the summer.  Personally I'm holding onto my oil shares but may 'top slice' some others.

[Fully Detached]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I bought my first bitcoin (less than one) earlier this week. Of course I wish I'd bought more now, though I think it'll pull back before consolidating. Raoul Pals almost brought me over the line, then PlanBs stock to flow model cinched it. I just love strong statistical correlation.

I was about to pull the trigger on a few k of BTC on Monday night, but got bored of dicking around getting the money to my coinbase account. I've been watching the price rise ever since so I'm hoping it pulls back sub 7000 in the next few days, at which point I'll buy. 

[Sasquatch]

1 minute ago, Fully Detached said:

I was about to pull the trigger on a few k of BTC on Monday night, but got bored of dicking around getting the money to my coinbase account. I've been watching the price rise ever since so I'm hoping it pulls back sub 7000 in the next few days, at which point I'll buy. 

I tried to set up a coinbase account a month ago but I couldn't get my bank account validated (despite me seeing the £2 test sum be taken from my account). Crypto is way up since then so I think I've now missed out. I don't really understand any of it in any case (particular the hard wallet thing). Old dog here I think....

[nirvana]

16 minutes ago, PaulParanoia said:

Sell in May and Go Away

the markets have never been so violent in my opinion - OIL is up 50% in 2 days!! The DAX has done a 600 pip round trip since yesterday afternoon!! 

Edit: further to this comment I'm surprised folk are buying buttcoin, you want a roller coaster ride just see above! 

[Shamone]

30 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

My brother who lives in deepest darkest Wales has just bought some more woodland. He is effectively self sufficient in heat as his house is heated by a wood burning Arga for central heating and a woodburner.

He just needs to generate some electricity!

Our long-term plan is to move to Powys somewhere quiet. Not self-sufficient but even more frugal. I suspect DB is correct about how things will look in the next decade. This crap has been building for decades now, it won’t unwind prettily. I’d rather get a few quiet years in away from people before the nukes fly or the real virus is released.