Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Dogtania]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Yes and he p*sses me off for living in lovely Little Cayman knocking back cocktails!  A lot to like about him.

Just started reading but this says it all to me and always has:

We now have interventionist authorities prepared to destroy (finish the destruction of) money, so who knows, but back then more money was lost after the initial fall and the sucker of all rallies.  A long slow grind down with repeatedly dashed fleeting moments of hope.  Can destroying the monetary base prevent this or just hide it?  Look at historical GBP if you want a taste of how that works.  Pulling the rug from under you.  Time to step out of the monetary box and more broadly define value and assets.  This is one big private equity scam, with the assets being sucked out and a skeleton and pile of shite left behind.  Follow the money out.

It's pretty scary sounding from reading the above and what I read the other day. 

He doesn't seem to offer up much hope in the medium term, and like he said at the start sounding more like a crazy prepper.  Guess it's easier too when your kicking back in some tropical enclave.  "Follow the money out"?🤔

[Harley]

On 25/04/2020 at 11:33, Sasquatch said:

Any others on here with the same concerns for their offspring?

We will all need (multi-generational) family in 2029.  A semi rural life that can help sustain them when needed is a great plan.

[Dogtania]

Not sure how useful this is to most of you but came across today and have seen the author featured before on peak prosperity.  Seems it's in pdf but will be trying to convert to ereader to digest.  Sorry I can't vouch for the site but looks like it's his own one and you can unsubscribe after downloading.

https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

[Harley]

On 25/04/2020 at 13:35, janch said:

is Raoul Pal right in that everyone rushes to the dollar for safety?

I read it as a move to the dollar followed by it's breaking and being replaced by a new instrument (e.g. a crypto basket).  The USD has been sucking the blood out of the system but cannot meet the growing demands place on it forever and will eventually fail.  It may appreciate relative to many others, but only relatively.

[Harley]

On 26/04/2020 at 15:22, DurhamBorn said:

If we can scale up hydrogen from all the wasted wind energy

Bamford (JCB) the younger was on the radio this week pushing precisely this business.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

...well f**k me 'ol boots, even the stock that CAN'T be NAMED ...

is UP from a low of 29p last week to 38p today!

41.45 in the end. Did you sell Last week. 

Its like someone's hoovering up any old crap 

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Not sure how useful this is to most of you but came across today and have seen the author featured before on peak prosperity.  Seems it's in pdf but will be trying to convert to ereader to digest.  Sorry I can't vouch for the site but looks like it's his own one and you can unsubscribe after downloading.

https://pages.goldsilver.com/freebook

I have it, it's a really good read.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Bamford (JCB) the younger was on the radio this week pushing precisely this business.

UK has a chance here Harley.Massive wind power going to waste on a night.They can use that for hydrogen production and then have the lowest power prices in Europe.I want to hear them announce a new Arc steel furnace for Teesside.Im hoping DRAX convert part of their site to hydrogen.I reckon the Phillips66 refinery on the Humber will turn to hydrogen production,piped to DRAX then used for the turbines.Shell and BP are both making moves in the area.Shell mainly in Holland.Instead of the divi one of them should buy SSE while they can.Everyone thinks EV is the future but im not so sure.Massive amounts of capital would prefer hydrogen.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

43 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Great post Harley.Beuatifully put.

The search for buying real assets before our currency crumbles is the key to surviving this mess.

Define a real asset? 

Land? House? Gold? 

All of these can be taken from you, nothing would surprise me now, the Commyservatives look to be capable of anything. 

A gun might be a useful asset to own? 

Parcels of land in various countries might be the best bet.  A camper van or a barge, lest you cant be tied down. 

The one world blair government might get you anyway whatever ypu do. 

Come to think of it, only thing now worth having is masses of debt. 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Deflation thread members today when the stock whos name shall not be mentioned tops the risers chart 

 

[Dogtania]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

I have it, it's a really good read.

Thanks Loki, I will definitely have a read. Honestly I don't quite understand the paper value Vs physical.  To an extent it makes sense with the paper value being not necessarily tied to anything remotely real apart from future bets, promises or trades etc.  Just that when the physical supply of silver and gold seemed to dry up somewhat (at least for poor novices like me) and I wanted a piece of the action (ie a bet on the future price) I wasn't sure what to do.  Probably could have used bullion vault but not sure if that was even possible or the prices were more rooted in reality.

It was interesting seeing the prices people were buying and selling Britannia's on eBay compared to the so called spot price.  Also was reminded how much importance was placed on Brits and the basic coins at such times (have read before how iirc the value of even scrap can go pretty high and certainly the non collectors stuff whereas the collectors numinastics get no love).

Definitely lots to learn as always but still liking having my small collection of loot close at hand and being able to pick it up when I could. 

[Loki]

Just now, Dogtania said:

Definitely lots to learn as always but still liking having my small collection of loot close at hand and being able to pick it up when I could. 

Same here - my latest batch of 20 Brits arrived today 

[Dogtania]

Nice one Loki.  I just had a look on silver to go and see they are back in stock (probably been for a while).

I looked at the sale section and very tempted to buy some of those unicorn Queen beasts for the longer term... Doesn't look like much premium at the moment on those lovely coins. (£46)  I'm biased though unicorns are pretty rare animals.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Harley what do you think about Bitcoin?.Im actually quite tempted to buy some.Iv been looking at it a bit like silver lately.Tiny amount compared to world liquidity.That means "if" people chose to it has the chance to be a Tulip bubble asset,as silver has.

I'm going in.  Lots still to learn though.  Can anyone recommend a very practical guide (broker to use, where to buy a hardware wallet, etc)?

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

I'm biased though unicorns are pretty rare animals.

Rarer than black swans!

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Can anyone recommend a very practical guide (broker to use, where to buy a hardware wallet, etc)?

Stay away from /biz/

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Deflation thread members today when the stock whos name shall not be mentioned tops the risers chart 

 

Very Funny. 

Had a read tonight on this remarkable bounce back.

3 skools of thought. 

1) its a V shape crash with the magic money doing the trick. The virus will be gone in a month and everything will bounce back...then just go up forever. Like it never happended. 

 

2) the W recovery. The viris will linger 9 months, the news gets worse and worse then we see a second bigger collapse, more magic money and a sustained recovery forever. Could be timed to get rid of trump too. 

3) the V\_ crash, where we get a second crash, due to the virus and continued bad news, massive losses, huge depression and a 30 year stock market lull. 

I can see all three as real possibilities. 

Ive had a mind to sell out for a week or so, glad i didn't as I've recovered half my losses. This recovery is too good to be true. As someone said, its not based on the news but on the liquidity. 

Best thing to do is keep an eye on the CV19 figures, if there is a hint of a relapse in italy, sell. 

My wife's nurse friend posted n Facebook today urging everyone to stay how and she is at the coal face!!! Said its much worse than you can imagine. Everyone's starting to get complacent which could well prolong this. Look at the US figures, its brutal out thete in the real world.

Im going to take my own advice and srll up in May then go away. 

[Tingles]

You boys have been on fire tonight. 

Been lurking and learning since late January.  Thank you.

[leonardratso]

30 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm going in.  Lots still to learn though.  Can anyone recommend a very practical guide (broker to use, where to buy a hardware wallet, etc)?

ive been trading on coinbase pro(formerly gdax) for probably 2 or 3 years now, not coinbase itself, bu tthe old gdax underlying exchange, its much closer to spot price than the  gamy overpriced coinbase.

Also charges there are reasonable cf other companies. And ive never yet had a limit order fail - buy or sell.

At my peak a few years back when it all went bonkers and BTC went as high as 20K i made appeox £900 a day for quite a few weeks, some losses also but overall i reckon i made maybe 10K using 20K as seed money, even with the losses taken out. Then a bear market settled in for probably 12-18 months and it flat lined, luckily id mainly pulled out. Ive recently gone back in with piddling amounts and am making some here and there, nowhere near as much as before and its volatile as hell, makes AIM bouncers look stable.

I doubt id put much in anymore, might play with a grand or 2, thats about it, it has shown it can and will kill you if you play too fast and loose with it. I know many have lost a fortune in the past.

ps. just to add, now uses 'clearing bank to get money in and out, no charge either way and basically it beats any trasnfer ive ever seen elsewhere bank to exchange and back, literally 10-20 minutes.

[Tingles]

34 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm going in.  Lots still to learn though.  Can anyone recommend a very practical guide (broker to use, where to buy a hardware wallet, etc)?

About three weeks ago I decided that I am going in too.  Simplistically because the herd has few alternatives to orthodox investments -  PMs and Crypto.

Whilst learning I have found the following useful:

https://cryptonews.com/guides/

https://blockonomi.com/guides/

I have purchased a Ledger Nano X as my first hardware wallet but was tempted by the Trezor Model T (for the small touch screen).

For my first foray into purchasing I will be trialing the exchanges Kraken and Coinbase Pro.  I will also be trialing LocalBitcoins (peer-to-peer).

 

[Harley]

.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I'm going in.  Lots still to learn though.  Can anyone recommend a very practical guide (broker to use, where to buy a hardware wallet, etc)?

Harley, it got me thinking when I saw R Pal's (brave?) 25% liquid wealth allocation to bitcoin (thanks for responding to my initial post query about that btw). He thinks btc may go to 1Million!  ...So perhaps DB is accurate in suggesting it could be a modern day 'tulip bulb'. Would be very interested to know if you do buy, though I guess it won't be 25% all in for you!; assuming it's for buy and hold and so will count towards some of those real assets you are accumulating?

[nirvana]

i see all the money printing is sending stocks to the moon again......will it last???

 

[nirvana]

RDSB cuts DIVI big time!!!!

Edit: the amount of viagra the markets are getting I wouldn't be surprised if the stock price holds up 

[CVG]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

25% liquid wealth allocation

If LWA is 25% of overall portfolio then 25% of that is 6.25% of overall portfolio. Still high. Might be tempted to go 2.5%. And, of course, rebalance!