Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

47 minutes ago, JMD said:

But does it have to be an either/or debate? i.e. choice of BTC or Gold as investment/store of value proposition? Why not use both?

A genuine question as others here will undoubtedly have their own considered views on this - i believe - crucial topic.

X vs Y can allow for a draw.

[Harley]

As I said, the con is on, and they've just played the mark, you.  Some body saying UK industry not ready for Brexit because of this serious covid pandemic (now you know why) and the media (including the fake pro Brexit ones) are doing the follow up.  Next will be a wait to the US election, probable ballot fraud and a Democrat administration so no US trade deal.  Sorry folks, we really tried our best, only not quite how you thought.  Oh well, at least GBP and the FTSE should go up!

PS: Don't forget to scan the QR code when attending any demo, if allowed, 'cause of the plague don't ya know.  Then go home and wait for the call/police visit telling you to stay home 'cause of the plague don't ya know.

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

What are your long term views on RR, SP? I work at an sme developing tech for various industries. We were part of an aerospace project and the aerospace sme went under post covid. There were in a great position but were focussed on aerospace. A lot of the supply-chain is buggered but I can see RR returning strong. They are getting involved with R&D projects so are looking towards the future. I'm not sure it's a good buy or not as they will return but it won't be easy for a couple of years.

Long term,I think it's a great buy and hold.I think the next year or two may be rough due to exposure to aviation industry.As sterling longer term starts a decline to parity with USD then I think UK exporters with that sort of pedigree will be an incredible opportunity.

AS ever,the bigger boys will survive.Much like the banking sector psot 08.manufacturing is something I'll be watching clsoely for a cycle bottom.

I'll be watching Barclays if they hit 20 pence in 2024.

[sancho panza]

following on from @NogintheNog is it a pretend prediction to jsutify neg rates?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54617067

UK job losses 'could be larger than forecast'

UK unemployment could climb higher than current forecasts as the pandemic continues to hit jobs, a Bank of England policymaker has said.

Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, warned the jobless rate could rise above the Bank's predicted peak of 7.5%.

In a speech on Tuesday, he said not all of the current two million furloughed workers would return to their jobs.

"The risks are skewed towards even larger [job] losses," he said.

"The fact that redundancies are rising sharply and the number of vacancies is only at around 60% of its level at the start of this year makes it difficult to see a scenario where all of the remaining furloughed workers are reintegrated seamlessly into the labour force," he said.

There is huge uncertainty about the scale of job losses, in both directions, he added, "but in my view, the risks are skewed towards even larger losses, implying even more slack in the economy than in our central projection."

He predicted the economy may need further financial stimulus, "given that virus prevalence has been increasing again recently" and "it appears that the downside risks to the economic outlook are starting to materialise".

[sancho panza]

what looming UK banking crisis?

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/10/19/amid-eviction-moratorium-wiggle-room-tightens-for-retail-landlords-tenants-in-the-uk/

Land Securities (Landsec), one of the UK’s largest REITs, has unveiled plans to sell of up to a third of its £12.8 billion portfolio in a huge shift away from the retail market. It has not yet identified buyers. Besides its retail properties, LandSec owns a vast portfolio of London offices and specialist assets consisting of hotel, leisure and other properties. Those specialist assets, together with its retail properties, represent around half of the portfolio’s total valuation. But some of them are now on the chopping block.

At the end of September, when rents for the final quarter of 2020 came due, retail tenants paid only 13% of rent due for the fourth quarter, worse than at the shortfall on rent-due date at the end of June, according to the UK’s National Law Review. This added £2 billion to the pile of unpaid rents.

Many tenants aren’t paying their rents, either because they can’t or are choosing not to. At the end of September, the government, much to the dismay of commercial property owners, extended its ban on evictions of commercial property tenants to December 31. The moratorium is not a rent holiday and tenants remain liable for unpaid rent. But many retailers have used the hiatus to preserve cash and/or try to renegotiate the terms of their rental lease.

''The short-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic have only just become visible, but the long-term effects will impact lending and banking into next year and beyond,” said Nicole Lux, senior research fellow at The Business School in the City of London and author of a report on bank lending that found that banks, who are now fretting about the value of their collateral, have already cut back on making new loans, which is tightening further the wiggle room for retail property landlords and tenants alike.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

what looming UK banking crisis?

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/10/19/amid-eviction-moratorium-wiggle-room-tightens-for-retail-landlords-tenants-in-the-uk/

Land Securities (Landsec), one of the UK’s largest REITs, has unveiled plans to sell of up to a third of its £12.8 billion portfolio in a huge shift away from the retail market. It has not yet identified buyers. 

Lol

Buyers have not yet made themselves available and are unlikely to want or be able to, more like it.

[Tingles]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

But does it have to be an either/or debate? i.e. choice of BTC or Gold as investment/store of value proposition? Why not use both?

A genuine question as others here will undoubtedly have their own considered views on this - i believe - crucial topic.

I think the key word is 'versus'.  Both BTC and and gold are discussed individually as assets relevant to a balanced portfolio but BTC vs./versus gold discussion would probably drift into BTC maximalist versus Goldbug territory wasting precious time, discussion and input.  Perhaps similar to the short term price movement comments which can derail the thread from it's purpose.

[DurhamBorn]

I dont even know where to start with this,but to think the bottom half of earners have this woke nutcase in control of their pension.She is saying poor peoples pensions should be used for her social agenda even if it means a long term loss of capital.

I think it deserves to be on the thread to check back on in 2028/30.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/pensions/article-8797741/How-making-pension-greener-make-money-DIANDRA-SOOBIAH-explains.html?login

Just before a massive boom in prices that will compound over the cycle we get this sage advice,the lack of understanding is breath taking.

"Resources from fossil fuels will likely become too expensive to extract from the ground, from either rising carbon taxes or a lack of consumer demand."

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont even know where to start with this,but to think the bottom half of earners have this woke nutcase in control of their pension.She is saying poor peoples pensions should be used for her social agenda even if it means a long term loss of capital.

I think it deserves to be on the thread to check back on in 2028/30.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/pensions/article-8797741/How-making-pension-greener-make-money-DIANDRA-SOOBIAH-explains.html?login

So if all these people refuse to invest in oil doesn't this reduce the oil companies investment and eventually force the price of oil up?

[DurhamBorn]

38 minutes ago, Option5 said:

So if all these people refuse to invest in oil doesn't this reduce the oil companies investment and eventually force the price of oil up?

It forces the power into the hands of the big companies who dont need to raise equity.Its only smaller layers who want to raise equity who suffer.Most projects are funded from debt,and no problem for the big boys there.

It does force share prices down though as people dump,then remove buying the companies going forward.Of course a woke woman who understands zero about macro strategy wont matter once profits gush higher.There will be plenty of buyers,just not the woke funds.

These sort of things always signal the start or end of cycles.That woman actually thinks the narrative i right.She has no concept of value,or that its group think.

Fantastic for contrarians though,Lower the price the more of the future cash flow we can get for our capital.

My macro work says gas use will treble nearly by 2050,she thinks its going to zero.It also says gas prices will be one of or maybe the best performing asset mid cycle.She says the worst.Lets see.

[Don Coglione]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It forces the power into the hands of the big companies who dont need to raise equity.Its only smaller layers who want to raise equity who suffer.Most projects are funded from debt,and no problem for the big boys there.

It does force share prices down though as people dump,then remove buying the companies going forward.Of course a woke woman who understands zero about macro strategy wont matter once profits gush higher.There will be plenty of buyers,just not the woke funds.

These sort of things always signal the start or end of cycles.That woman actually thinks the narrative i right.She has no concept of value,or that its group think.

Fantastic for contrarians though,Lower the price the more of the future cash flow we can get for our capital.

My macro work says gas use will treble nearly by 2050,she thinks its going to zero.It also says gas prices will be one of or maybe the best performing asset mid cycle.She says the worst.Lets see.

This was the most terrifying comment from that article:

"Coronavirus has provided an opportunity to reset the economy for a more sustainable future".

I wonder who told her to say that?

[DurhamBorn]

52 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

This was the most terrifying comment from that article:

"Coronavirus has provided an opportunity to reset the economy for a more sustainable future".

I wonder who told her to say that?

The worry is this means reset for the rich like her while the poor/ordinary suffer hugely.The Labour party have now walked away 100% from ordinary working people.It seems they have nobody to vote for.Even that comment though just lacks understanding.To build a green future as quick as she says would need massive amounts of fossil fuel energy.

The idea you can "reset" a massive economy is also ludicrous.They turn,but cycles develop slowly.Thats why we use road maps because markets and economies arent linear.Its entry level macro economics she is getting wrong.Stunning to be honest.

[harp]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont even know where to start with this,but to think the bottom half of earners have this woke nutcase in control of their pension.She is saying poor peoples pensions should be used for her social agenda even if it means a long term loss of capital.

I think it deserves to be on the thread to check back on in 2028/30.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/pensions/article-8797741/How-making-pension-greener-make-money-DIANDRA-SOOBIAH-explains.html?login

Just before a massive boom in prices that will compound over the cycle we get this sage advice,the lack of understanding is breath taking.

"Resources from fossil fuels will likely become too expensive to extract from the ground, from either rising carbon taxes or a lack of consumer demand."

I wonder why Daily Mail are not accepting comments on that article?

[MrXxxx]

23 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

What are your long term views on RR, SP? I work at an sme developing tech for various industries. We were part of an aerospace project and the aerospace sme went under post covid. There were in a great position but were focussed on aerospace. A lot of the supply-chain is buggered but I can see RR returning strong. They are getting involved with R&D projects so are looking towards the future. I'm not sure it's a good buy or not as they will return but it won't be easy for a couple of years.

Short-term about to go through a rights issue offering 10 for every three owned at 32p each, so expect price to drop dramatically after. Mid-term recovery may partly depend on Covid and increase in log-haul flying as their service contract are linked to engines/planes on these routes (not short-haul such as Europe hops etc). Long-term lots of announcement plans i.e electric planes, Small/mid nuclear reactors...but given the market who knows...you "Pays your money, and makes your choice" DYOR

[working woman]

2 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

This was the most terrifying comment from that article:

"Coronavirus has provided an opportunity to reset the economy for a more sustainable future".

I wonder who told her to say that?

The concept of Sustainable Development is well bedded into many of our institutions. 

As an example, I worked for a Local Council in the Midlands 15-20 years ago. At the front of the employee handbook it stated that the Council was working towards Sustainable Development. As far as I am aware, all other councils at the time were too. They listed all the principles of Sustainable Development, which I am sure most people would agree with.

Everyone thought they working for a Labour or Conservative council - they weren't, the councils' mission statement was Green.

What was interesting, no-one was ever sent on any training courses on Sustainable Development, and no-one seemed aware that this was what we were all supposed to be working towards.  It was like they were paying lip service to it.

Before that, I lived in London and was a volunteer with the Local Agenda 21 group a partnership between the community and council. Together with the local community, all councils were supposed to develop a plan / agenda for the 21st century and work with the community to implement it. I was a volunteer in the Energy group and that council was the first in the country to switch to green energy street lighting. The young council officer we worked with was very enthusiastic and it was a real achievement for him.

Many conspiracy theory people talk about Local Agenda 21 and NWO and seem to have just latched onto it with no understanding what it is about and see it as something sinister.  It is supposed to come from the people, from the grass roots up and aims to create a sustainable lifestyle, surely that is the only lifestyle you can have?

I remember many years ago going to the new Hindu temple near Wembley. It had an exhibition on the Hindu philosophy. It stated that there were three main aspects of their God/Gods - Destruction  Creation and a middle aspect, Sustaining.  You could apply that to nature - it is destructive, creative and sustaining.

In the 1960's the hippies went off to India and explored Hinduism. Kerala in Southern India is supposedly very green/sustainable. I imagine those hippies brought home their concepts of sustainabilty from India.

 I don't have a fear of the woman at Nest working towards a Sustainable Future.

What I do find scary is, she has likely embraced the concept, with no idea what it will look like. It is about much more that wind turbines. I have no idea what it will look like for us in the UK. Each area in the UK should have it's own plan as a core concept is act local, think global.

Our world is changing, the changes we need to make to adapt will be hard for people, look at how people are struggling adapting to Coronavirus.

We may have a plan and a list of principles, but ultimately nature is in control. 

 

 

[Loki]

Are you Hopeless's girlfriend? 

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, working woman said:

The concept of Sustainable Development is well bedded into many of our institutions. 

As an example, I worked for a Local Council in the Midlands 15-20 years ago. At the front of the employee handbook it stated that the Council was working towards Sustainable Development. As far as I am aware, all other councils at the time were too. They listed all the principles of Sustainable Development, which I am sure most people would agree with.

Everyone thought they working for a Labour or Conservative council - they weren't, the councils' mission statement was Green.

What was interesting, no-one was ever sent on any training courses on Sustainable Development, and no-one seemed aware that this was what we were all supposed to be working towards.  It was like they were paying lip service to it.

Before that, I lived in London and was a volunteer with the Local Agenda 21 group a partnership between the community and council. Together with the local community, all councils were supposed to develop a plan / agenda for the 21st century and work with the community to implement it. I was a volunteer in the Energy group and that council was the first in the country to switch to green energy street lighting. The young council officer we worked with was very enthusiastic and it was a real achievement for him.

Many conspiracy theory people talk about Local Agenda 21 and NWO and seem to have just latched onto it with no understanding what it is about and see it as something sinister.  It is supposed to come from the people, from the grass roots up and aims to create a sustainable lifestyle, surely that is the only lifestyle you can have?

I remember many years ago going to the new Hindu temple near Wembley. It had an exhibition on the Hindu philosophy. It stated that there were three main aspects of their God/Gods - Destruction  Creation and a middle aspect, Sustaining.  You could apply that to nature - it is destructive, creative and sustaining.

In the 1960's the hippies went off to India and explored Hinduism. Kerala in Southern India is supposedly very green/sustainable. I imagine those hippies brought home their concepts of sustainabilty from India.

 I don't have a fear of the woman at Nest working towards a Sustainable Future.

What I do find scary is, she has likely embraced the concept, with no idea what it will look like. It is about much more that wind turbines. I have no idea what it will look like for us in the UK. Each area in the UK should have it's own plan as a core concept is act local, think global.

Our world is changing, the changes we need to make to adapt will be hard for people, look at how people are struggling adapting to Coronavirus.

We may have a plan and a list of principles, but ultimately nature is in control. 

 

 

I fear that NEST investors will become the bridge-dwellers i ten years' time, due to this mindest.

Either them, or today's investors in BP...

[UnconventionalWisdom]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont even know where to start with this,but to think the bottom half of earners have this woke nutcase in control of their pension.She is saying poor peoples pensions should be used for her social agenda even if it means a long term loss of capital.

I think it deserves to be on the thread to check back on in 2028/30.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/pensions/article-8797741/How-making-pension-greener-make-money-DIANDRA-SOOBIAH-explains.html?login

Just before a massive boom in prices that will compound over the cycle we get this sage advice,the lack of understanding is breath taking.

"Resources from fossil fuels will likely become too expensive to extract from the ground, from either rising carbon taxes or a lack of consumer demand."

It's crazy that these guys are in charge of money. The key is that you do better than the market, not spend on the projects you like. There should be no emotion when investing. Individuals can make decisions to boycott industries/ share options but pension providers shouldn't be making the call.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

It's crazy that these guys are in charge of money. The key is that you do better than the market, not spend on the projects you like. There should be no emotion when investing. Individuals can make decisions to boycott industries/ share options but pension providers shouldn't be making the call.

 

Exactly.As much emotion should be removed as you can.Think,not feel.The lack of understanding is incredible.India said last week it intends to treble energy use.Does she not do any macro work?.

Can anyone get hold of the portfolio NEST holds?,it would be interesting to see how they change it etc.

[DurhamBorn]

file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/Nest-quarterly-investment-report.pdf

file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/underlying-holdings-Q2-2020.pdf

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, working woman said:

Our world is changing, the changes we need to make to adapt will be hard for people, look at how people are struggling adapting to Coronavirus.

I have adapted already, stopped doing holidays as other folks get on my nerves and I end up working too hard to pay for them so can't see the point.

Car as now doing 1/4 the mileage it used to.

Stopped eating out, home cooking, stopped watching TV (I'm here, on the bike or making stuff), made a custom radiator cover with my lad last week instead of buying one for 20% of the cost.

The future is here and 25% of the UK will be unemployed i.e. surplus to its real economic requirements.

The only person spending money and destroying the world is Mrs Chewy with her incessant buying of sweat shop clothes on the internet and sending 70% of them back.

The future is Green.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/Nest-quarterly-investment-report.pdf

Here fixed it for you.

https://www.nestpensions.org.uk/schemeweb/dam/nestlibrary/Nest-quarterly-investment-report.pdf

[UnconventionalWisdom]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.As much emotion should be removed as you can.Think,not feel.The lack of understanding is incredible.India said last week it intends to treble energy use.Does she not do any macro work?.

Can anyone get hold of the portfolio NEST holds?,it would be interesting to see how they change it etc.

 

[Chewing Grass]

My eyesight needs a bigger piccy.

[Chewing Grass]

The ethical fund for the left/greeny/hipsters is here, seems obsessed with scientific instruments and gasses.

Thermo Electron, Roper Tech, Mettler Toledo, Linde