Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

25 minutes ago, Loki said:

Very poor form to pass your thoughts off as their own if true. Sadly it was only a matter of time.

 

 

Oh i'd say it's TRUE! Look at this thread - it's had 1.3M views!!!

 

Years ago I was an avid reader of moneyweek and they did a questionnaire/ survey...1 of the QUESTIONS asked was about stock market sayings or something along those lines...

 

Anyway i wrote back with my ol time favorite quote: "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." yes its from the ****  Rothschilds!

 

AND guess what, it starts appearing in smarmy stepeck's articles at moneyweek!

 

Needless to say moneyweek will be getting f***all from me for FREE again!

 

BTW, I see VOD going UP ffs...just as i want them to go down to buy more!!! 

 

[kibuc]

I've got to admit I wasn't expecting this kind of action in PMs at all. This sector takes balls of steel sometimes.

[sleepwello'nights]

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

[geordie_lurch]

4 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

I am no expert but put a sell order in for 20% of my Merian Gold and Silver at HL yesterday morning as I felt we were due a correction and I wanted to take some profits. However by the time they actually complete the order there might not be much profit to take

[CVG]

5 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

I think that it relates to the false sense of security arising from the perceived favourable election result and continuing vaccine news. No need for safe havens!

[nirvana]

GOLD JUST SHIT THE BED, SILVER FOLLOWING 

OIL HOLDING ABOVE 45, COME ON THE OILIES!!!!!! 

PS I was tempted by another one of those cheap Pizzas at €1.23, gonna be getting fat at this rate of decadence  

[arrow]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think thats probably right @Barnsey .Another sharp down leg would shake out the weak hands.I also think we will keep seeing sharp pull backs and more and more will bail.Its likely we will see parabolic increases in reflation assets late in the cycle as people panic that the CBs have lost control of inflation.

I think the key question for people reading this thread is how to get from here to there.Do we to slice a few on sharp run ups?,then re-invest on a correction?,let dividends build and use those on the pull backs? .Its a very difficult question.

It is a difficult question. I think it depends both upon your personality and your confidence in trading.

Some posters on here are fantastic traders. They know how to time their entry and exit points.

Sadly, I'm not one of those. I used to buy way too early and sell way too late. Now, I buy and hold reinvesting dividends. I buy based on my convictions of a high commodity and inflation cycle coming. I still sometimes buy way too early  when I look at my investments, but I don't believe for one second that commodities such as oil are dead and so simply ladder into more Xom, shell, bp, etc

[arrow]

25 minutes ago, CVG said:

I think that it relates to the false sense of security arising from the perceived favourable election result and continuing vaccine news. No need for safe havens!

Oddly, I think it makes the probability of an 80% stock market collapse more likely. Biden , if senate allows him, may spend a lot more than Trump but be unable/unwilling to step in to stop falls due to his supporters' hatred of the stock market, whereas Trump would have been able to do more

[nirvana]

41 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

JP Morgan and Goldman......always those feckers manipulating prices.......not called the vampire squid for nothing.....

Nobody can predict the markets*, chart patterns are shite mainly, always follow the big boys  

Edit: *sorry except for @DurhamBornhe's pretty good 

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

And the solar farms - I was surprised and still unclear why the likes of TRIG went down so much in Feb/Mar - investor margin calls or some other worry?

When i was researching the renewables fund/trust sector, earlier this year, i found most of these funds invested in co's that had energy supply contracts dependent on government subsidy. Can't remember the details now, but most of the contracts were up for renewal over the coming 5 years or so. So buying into already expensive funds when their income/financials didn't add up warned me off buying.    

But for anyone interested in these types of fund - SDCL Energy efficiency income trust was one of the few not reliant on subsidies - of course this might have now changed, and this is of course is not investment advice. 

[headrow]

11 hours ago, Rave said:

More likely to be Ratcliffe or West Burton, it's not particularly helpful for grid balancing to have all the power being produced in one place and when Drax's Biomass units are at full pelt they pump out 2.6GW.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_coal-fired_power_stations_in_the_United_Kingdom

I live near Drax , was out this morning and had a view of it with the wind farms in front , they were stood still and Drax had all 12 cooling towers pumping a huge vertical stack of steam miles in the air. Beautiful.

[headrow]

Another advantage of living near Drax.

 

The pubs will be reopen in Selby soon as they fall into tier 2 North Yorkshire and places further north like Bradford and Leeds are stuck in tier 3.

 

 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

I've got to admit I wasn't expecting this kind of action in PMs at all. This sector takes balls of steel sometimes.

The DH effect

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why are Gold and Silver prices dropping?

Is it connected with the allegations of massive fraud in US election with those implicated in Wall Street manipulating prices? 

 I dont think its that. You have to appreciate PM s have had a good year, and now they are in the traditional shitty season which runs till about January apparently........(..Im  no expert, just regurgitating what I have gleaned. ) Support for gold is at 1810, if it goes through that then thats a bad omen, till then nothings happening worth getting too excited about. Silver could go as low as $18 dollars in the short term. Im in for the long term on metals and oil so I am not bovvered. None of this should be taken as trading advice for I am a muppet, though I am a muppet thats currently in profit due to silver having had a great year plus the oiles rebound.

[nirvana]

16 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Support for gold is at 1810

it's in the 17s now.......but finding some support.....

You guys should have shouted, OCD calm down and BTFD 

hold on finding the right pic......incoming.....

 

edit: Silver had a nice bounce, Nasdaq is off like a goodun again

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Very poor form to pass your thoughts off as their own if true. Sadly it was only a matter of time.

 

How many thoughts are our own?

Think long enough and the realisation is that the answer may be very close to none!

[Harley]

18 hours ago, Harley said:

Er, Mr AJ, the US markets do not close at 6pm, you just lock out your customers then!

https://market24hclock.com/#_

 

My bad, the US market does close early today, but I think I previously read on their website that they don't normally provide access the full hours but I may be wrong about that too (anyways, their website says only CDIs)!

[DurhamBorn]

Repsol's strategic plan for the next five years was pretty much as expected.Divi cut to 60c about what id of expected.Increasing to 75c by 2025,anyone buying at 7.5 euro or less should be happy with that,share buy backs to kick in in 2022 and including divi to be over 1euro a share in 2025,all based on an average Brent of $50 and henry hub of $2.50.

One worry is there was mention of cashflow over target would go into more renewables.That could mean capital destruction instead of boosted payouts.However one interesting nugget,and where i think Repsol is leading and others will follow is hints the renewable business will end up split and floated off on the market with an initial small minority stake,then i expect shareholders handed the equity.That would then mean the oil and gas side would be run for cash and dividends.That could prove lucrative is we see a green bubble.Shareholders could reap from both sides.

The interesting thing with BP and Repsol is they have almost locked themselves in payouts though id expect they would have to increase when cash flow explodes.

[Loki]

52 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

How many thoughts are our own?

Think long enough and the realisation is that the answer may be very close to none!

I already thought of that

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Repsol's strategic plan for the next five years was pretty much as expected.Divi cut to 60c about what id of expected.Increasing to 75c by 2025,anyone buying at 7.5 euro or less should be happy with that,share buy backs to kick in in 2022 and including divi to be over 1euro a share in 2025,all based on an average Brent of $50 and henry hub of $2.50.

60c dividend = 48.6c after 19% Spanish withholding tax.

Not as bad as Germany 26.375%, France 28%, Sweden 30%, etc

https://topforeignstocks.com/2020/02/03/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2020/

 

[harp]

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I hope they haven't told their IT dept about the refresh-esc trick you mentioned, saved me a subscription 

It doesnt work for me... probably doing something wrong

[harp]

Just now, harp said:

It doesnt work for me... probably doing something wrong

I kid you not! It just did! Cheers mate.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

60c dividend = 48.6c after 19% Spanish withholding tax.

Not as bad as Germany 26.375%, France 28%, Sweden 30%, etc

https://topforeignstocks.com/2020/02/03/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2020/

 

Yes,no tax this year as its scrip if you want,simply sell scrip shares if income is wanted.Witholding tax is a pain and is a reason US shares are so tempting given zero tax in a SIPP

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

How many thoughts are our own?

Think long enough and the realisation is that the answer may be very close to none!

The good/successful ones are always mine...for the bad ones I usually find someone else to blame :-)

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

60c dividend = 48.6c after 19% Spanish withholding tax.

Not as bad as Germany 26.375%, France 28%, Sweden 30%, etc

https://topforeignstocks.com/2020/02/03/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2020/

 

They have a “Flexible Dividend Program”. So you can take as shares and then sell if you need the cash.