Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

20 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I did try and warn people 😊

No one wants to listen to a looney

@DurhamBornhave you considered the possibility they won't print? 

They can't not print. Otherwise their duplicitousnessagement is laid bare and it's an admission that the last 20 years has catastrophically failed. Only a tiny portion of us will know the truth even when things are at their worst.

Print to the death is the only non- option they have.

[DoINeedOne]

Thoughts is this Russia smashing the oil price to fuck American shale companies 

[Loki]

I'd like to know what Gartman has to say on the matter

 

[Lavalas]

Jumped in and got some Adriatic Metals and MAG Silver Corp

Diversification / a Rollacoaster init 

[kibuc]

6 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Jumped in and got some Adriatic Metals and MAG Silver Corp

Diversification / a Rollacoaster init 

Good luck. MAG looks cheap, then again, what doesn't?

I sold all my goldies except Minera and I'm betting on a silver rally with Alexco, Impact and Fortuna (ok, that one is a silver miner in name only). Proceeding from goldies will stay in cash for now.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

33 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

They can't not print. Otherwise their duplicitousnessagement is laid bare and it's an admission that the last 20 years has catastrophically failed. Only a tiny portion of us will know the truth even when things are at their worst.

Print to the death is the only non- option they have.

Maybe they value their necks more than the previous blokes reputation 

[Lavalas]

18 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. MAG looks cheap, then again, what doesn't?

I sold all my goldies except Minera and I'm betting on a silver rally with Alexco, Impact and Fortuna (ok, that one is a silver miner in name only). Proceeding from goldies will stay in cash for now.

Thanks... you too. It’s a wild ride isn’t it. 

Adriatic might be a bit longer term but MAG is for a silver rally (along with Alexco). Been umming and arring about whether / what to put some more into for a few weeks but took the plunge.

If there’s another gold bounce I’m considering taking some off the table, just to be sensible, but then... trade the plan etc. Isn’t this all part of what we’ve been waiting for 🤷🏻‍♂️ Trying to maintain a balance of caution and courageousness.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Shell, on the face of it looking good value today and the madness hasn't even started yet in the uk. 

 

Plenty people now realising this is getting serious.  Ive spoke to people who are seeing empty shelves in the supermarket and are starting to rhink they should stock up....this weekend will be interesting up Tesco 

Could blow over or could see 2 million dead in the uk alone

 

 

Place your bets 

[CVG]

After a brutal fortnight, my current position is

My consolation is the expectation of £2K dividends in September!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Tdog said:

Dont forget the over leveraged financial illiterates who thought buying run of the mill houses at 10-15 times average wage and our old favourites the BTL brigade.

Just wait until they find out they are on SVR when their fixed rates run out due to negative equity.Servicing the debt is going to be the problem 5 years out from here.

[BearyBear]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just wait until they find out they are on SVR when their fixed rates run out due to negative equity.Servicing the debt is going to be the problem 5 years out from here.

My worry is the gov will somehow help these debt junkies and all those diligent guys who are waiting for sensibly priced homes will never see them  

[BearyBear]

Wow, WTI -10% @41.50

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

You're excitable!

The theory I like is that money is flooding out of stocks into bonds to be safe which will last until the $ continues its nosedive. Then it moves to gold.

For now I agree with the thought that it's a repeat of last Friday's margin calls pushing down metals.

Yellow stuff is up $11.90 today according to my BBP to $1680.XAU is down 2.3%...............

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Shell, on the face of it looking good value today and the madness hasn't even started yet in the uk. 

 

Plenty people now realising this is getting serious.  Ive spoke to people who are seeing empty shelves in the supermarket and are starting to rhink they should stock up....this weekend will be interesting up Tesco 

Could blow over or could see 2 million dead in the uk alone

 

I think you'll struggle to find a clinician in the NHS who thinks even a long shot.

Mortality rate is 2% versus the Flu's 0.002% iirc.If the city of Wuhan hasn't seen a 50% infection rate by now then it seems very unlikely we'll see it.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

I think you'll struggle to find a clinician in the NHS who thinks even a long shot.

Mortality rate is 2% versus the Flu's 0.002% iirc.If the city of Wuhan hasn't seen a 50% infection rate by now then it seems very unlikely we'll see it.

Unlikely, i agree. Possibly, especially if it hits 2 or 3 times. 

 

The death yoll will be between 2 and 2 million. Impossible to call right now that's the only certainty 

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think you'll struggle to find a clinician in the NHS who thinks even a long shot.

Mortality rate is 2% versus the Flu's 0.002% iirc.If the city of Wuhan hasn't seen a 50% infection rate by now then it seems very unlikely we'll see it.

Mortalitt rate 10‰ in tbe over 70s... There's a lot of them about. 

[Democorruptcy]

Mosaic MOS ex-div but down to $14 at -12% so far today after -5% yesterday. Someone needs to put some fertiliser on it.

[Don Coglione]

CNA another 7.6% down today - based on what?

[BearyBear]

Helicopter Money..?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-white-house-money-distressed-economy-kudlow

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

7 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Helicopter Money..?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-white-house-money-distressed-economy-kudlow

 

I think they'll call it "Not helicopter money"
But yeah.  I can almost hear the rotors.

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Unlikely, i agree. Possibly, especially if it hits 2 or 3 times. 

 

The death yoll will be between 2 and 2 million. Impossible to call right now that's the only certainty 

Mortalitt rate 10‰ in tbe over 70s... There's a lot of them about. 

...

BTW, will you STOP PANIC buying  cos i'm getting bugger all Yellow Reduced Sticker bargains!

 

In fact i was in waitrose yesterday evening and spoke to the Yellow Reduced Sticker lady, and yeah she said since this coronavirus shes hardly putting out any stickers!

 

How are YOU guys fairing on the Yellow Sticker Reductions? @DurhamBorn Are ya still getting bargains in the north?

 

NOT only that i bought my 3rd bundle of shell today only for it to go down more,  still its better than my 1st price of £19.10

 

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I think they'll call it "Not helicopter money"
But yeah.  I can almost hear the rotors.

 

They'll call it "Extraordinary measures" and then "The greatest economy ever".

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Don't want to stary a conspiracy but didbt the #### carney and hos ecb weasel mate time their exits well. 

 

Haven't several high profile execs done one recebtly? 

Im sure its all juat coincidence. 

 

2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

...

BTW, will you STOP PANIC buying  cos i'm getting bugger all Yellow Reduced Sticker bargains!

 

In fact i was in waitrose yesterday evening and spoke to the Yellow Reduced Sticker lady, and yeah she said since this coronavirus shes hardly putting out any stickers!

 

How are YOU guys fairing on the Yellow Sticker Reductions? @DurhamBorn Are ya still getting bargains in the north?

 

NOT only that i bought my 3rd bundle of shell today only for it to go down more,  still its better than my 1st price of £19.10

 

Its looking a good bet. Ill give it 6 months tho 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

...

BTW, will you STOP PANIC buying  cos i'm getting bugger all Yellow Reduced Sticker bargains!

 

In fact i was in waitrose yesterday evening and spoke to the Yellow Reduced Sticker lady, and yeah she said since this coronavirus shes hardly putting out any stickers!

 

How are YOU guys fairing on the Yellow Sticker Reductions? @DurhamBorn Are ya still getting bargains in the north?

 

NOT only that i bought my 3rd bundle of shell today only for it to go down more,  still its better than my 1st price of £19.10

 

Last night i got 2 Rib eye steaks for 98p each,Haddock goujons 55p,2 packs of decent sausage 42p,a dickinsons steak pie 84p,4 packs of Sea Bass for £1 each,3 soup mixes for 10p each,so a good haul of quality stuff,havent been out much lately as busy sorting a lot of things out and need to create some space,all 3 freezers are full and iv got a spade under one door handle to keep it shut 

[Sugarlips]

Can anyone decipher this tweet for the layman pls?

https://mobile.twitter.com/gamesblazer06/status/1236001446627135488

[Bricks & Mortar]

2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

...

BTW, will you STOP PANIC buying  cos i'm getting bugger all Yellow Reduced Sticker bargains!

 

In fact i was in waitrose yesterday evening and spoke to the Yellow Reduced Sticker lady, and yeah she said since this coronavirus shes hardly putting out any stickers!

 

How are YOU guys fairing on the Yellow Sticker Reductions? @DurhamBorn Are ya still getting bargains in the north?

 

NOT only that i bought my 3rd bundle of shell today only for it to go down more,  still its better than my 1st price of £19.10

 

Back from my local Co-Op this evening.  Can report a bumper haul of reduced items.  Toilet roll, rice, tinned goods, tea, and booze had taken a hammering.  I guess the customers were more focussed on long-life dry goods than fresh foods.
* I never went into the toiletries, but don't imagine there was handwash or sanitiser.  Family members have said to forget it.

This is an affluent area.  The customers are, in a much higher proportion than the general populace, retirees.  They're not worried about a wage next week.  But they're really worried about the bat-flu.