Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Worth noting that The United Grand Lodge of England have asked the Brethren(Freemasons) to stop shaking hands due to Coronoa Virus.....................you couldn't make this up.

Too soft to get in the Scottish Rite  ,given the leverage out there though this virus could be what kicks things over.Incredible to think China was pretty much closed.Could be a big bounce back,but a lot of damage done.Travel companies must be having some interesting board meetings at the moment.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

The 12k i moved from funding circle to reinflatuon shares is now down 20%. 

 

I knew its better ro wait fir the collapse. 

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Worth noting that The United Grand Lodge of England have asked the Brethren(Freemasons) to stop shaking hands due to Coronoa Virus.....................you couldn't make this up.

Well you could (never let a crises go to waste, en all), probably that is just spin put out by their clever guys in central office. After all, everyone surely knows that Freemasons nowadays greet one another by a reverse-heel tap and 90% wink!

[janch]

David Hunter thinks there's a final melt-up in stocks to come:

 

@DaveHcontrarian

·

3 Mar

 

I'd be a seller of T-bonds today & a buyer of stocks. I've been the biggest bond bull on the Street but this move has gone far enough. Time for a stiff bond correction while stocks ramp into a melt-up.

[Agent ZigZag]

4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The 12k i moved from funding circle to reinflatuon shares is now down 20%. 

 

I knew its better ro wait fir the collapse. 

 

Your in good company. You want to see my share list. A sea or red. Whilst dividends help smooth the pain my funds are still down. Patience and emotion is a skill I am still learning in order to alleviate out all of the emotion

[janch]

4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The 12k i moved from funding circle to reinflatuon shares is now down 20%. 

 

I knew its better ro wait fir the collapse. 

 

Don't worry I'm also down about the same amount.  My only risers are a couple of mining minnows AAU/POG and SLP.  I'm not panicking as I'm sure we will recover.  I have every faith in @DurhamBorn's road-map.

[CVG]

3 minutes ago, janch said:

Don't worry I'm also down about the same amount.  My only risers are a couple of mining minnows AAU/POG and SLP.  I'm not panicking as I'm sure we will recover.  I have every faith in @DurhamBorn's road-map.

As part of my diversification stratgey I have 50% faith in DB and 50% faith in myself!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Your in good company. You want to see my share list. A sea or red. Whilst dividends help smooth the pain my funds are still down. Patience and emotion is a skill I am still learning in order to alleviate out all of the emotion

Im not too worried. Its a retirement dividend plan. 

 

National grid up about 20% despite all this. 

 

I sold some losers last week and bought shell which has decreased my loses. Ill givevit six month then put a wedge into the stocks i am holding. 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting to see what's going to happen to some regional airports

I heard the 90% Southampton this morning and thought "that's another kick in the balls for the cruise companies" with so many having to get there for their cruise.

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Im not too worried. Its a retirement dividend plan. 

 

National grid up about 20% despite all this. 

 

I sold some losers last week and bought shell which has decreased my loses. Ill givevit six month then put a wedge into the stocks i am holding. 

Another currently up week/month/3month/6month is DTY. They issued a profit warning last Nov because there hadn't been enough deaths!

Quote

 

Dignity plc is a United Kingdom-based provider of funeral related services in the United Kingdom. The Company operates through three segments: funeral services, crematoria and pre-arranged funeral plans.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/dignity-plc-ordinary-shares-12-48143p/share-charts

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, CVG said:

As part of my diversification stratgey I have 50% faith in DB and 50% faith in myself!

Make that 51% in yourself CVG i hope .The key as always is ladders.If everyone has followed and bought the gold trade etc they should of made really big capital.I pretty much doubled and sold early,150% or more should of been taken by people who held on a bit longer.That capital should be seen as a buffer as capital is slowly dripped into assets.For myself my ladders are mostly set,and if every one hits then stops the 20%ish they will be down is roughly what my gold miner trade made me.If they then turn il consider that job done.If they keep falling then the companies will be down an average of 75% from their highs when i start losing capital,before dividends.I can live with that.Timing isnt something we can do outside of sectors like gold and oil.There we can try to get a focus on the commod,but even then we can only really try to avoid the big losses.

If i dont count a pension transfer im doing im about 42% invested here but ladders are now hitting very regular and thats going up quite fast.The IBTL/TLT trade entered into should of returned everyone around 30%+ in sterling terms.Iv sold mine now even though there might be more.The IBTL trade and the gold miner trade gave me 27% up on my portfolio,the shares im laddering are down on average 12% before dividends now.Some -50%,others +50% showing the wild ride we are on.

This is the time where the likes of Vanguard 60/40 funds shine as they shield people,but the risk for them is once we enter a reflation.Bonds will fall for a decade and the equity markets might only creep higher as the recovery isnt broad based.

Terrible the CBs let the world economy get in such a state.Lets hope we can navigate things.

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Another currently up week/month/3month/6month is DTY. They issued a profit warning last Nov because there hadn't been enough deaths!

 

 

I was going to mention them earlier in the week,but thought it in bad taste,its and ill wind and all that 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was going to mention them earlier in the week,but thought it in bad taste,its and ill wind and all that 

I was going to mention them in January when I started reading the pandemic thread. My restraint and good etiquette lasting this long surprised me but it's all gone wrong now  

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The 12k i moved from funding circle to reinflatuon shares is now down 20%. 

I knew its better ro wait fir the collapse. 

 

If it makes you feel any better, Funding Circle appears in a surprisingly large amount of the administration reports of the smaller construction companies going bust.

They are going to be ground zero of a deflation debt collapse IMO, chasing high yields of risky small business is picking up pennies in front a steamroller at this stage of the cycle.

[Noallegiance]

36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Terrible the CBs put the world economy in such a state.

 

Corrected!

[JMD]

Is anyone still buying Infrastrata?

Its currently at .27  ...and only been lower once before - back in March/April 2018 - when it fell to .24p.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

If it makes you feel any better, Funding Circle appears in a surprisingly large amount of the administration reports of the smaller construction companies going bust.

They are going to be ground zero of a deflation debt collapse IMO, chasing high yields of risky small business is picking up pennies in front a steamroller at this stage of the cycle.

I dont think they'll see out the year. 

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is anyone still buying Infrastrata?

Its currently at .27  ...and only been lower once before - back in March/April 2018 - when it fell to .24p.

The EU money never arrived, I have a small amount from way back that I just let sit there.  I don't plan on buying any more, put it like that!

[Don Coglione]

17 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is anyone still buying Infrastrata?

Its currently at .27  ...and only been lower once before - back in March/April 2018 - when it fell to .24p.

I have a chunky stake in INFA, currently looking at a 5-figure loss.

I think the company is fucked, I believe the original gas storage project is now dead in the water, hence the mental decision to buy the steaming pile of shit that is Harland & Wolff; the only reason that I haven't eaten my loss is the (likely forelorn) belief that the politicians will step in to stop H&W from failing again.

Fucking shocking management in the last year, I would be dishing out jail sentences for the lies that have been spun.

[kibuc]

24 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is anyone still buying Infrastrata?

Its currently at .27  ...and only been lower once before - back in March/April 2018 - when it fell to .24p.

It turned out to be an equivalent of a shit mining stock, where you canno trust a single word that the management is saying. The number of red flags throughout the 2019 was astonishing.

Keep in mind that in Spring 2018 their share count was about a half of the current one, so the current market cap is about twice what it was back then. Don't let the SP fool you.

However, a bit perversely perhaps, I'm planning to build a sizeable position starting in Q2 (or maybe even in March if my miners deliver). I have no idea where they are with the gas storage project, it might be that it's dead and burried, but I think there will be a lot of public money thrown at industrial projects and H&W might benefit.

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, kibuc said:

It turned out to be an equivalent of a shit mining stock, where you canno trust a single word that the management is saying. The number of red flags throughout the 2019 was astonishing.

Keep in mind that in Spring 2018 their share count was about a half of the current one, so the current market cap is about twice what it was back then. Don't let the SP fool you.

However, a bit perversely perhaps, I'm planning to build a sizeable position starting in Q2 (or maybe even in March if my miners deliver). I have no idea where they are with the gas storage project, it might be that it's dead and burried, but I think there will be a lot of public money thrown at industrial projects and H&W might benefit.

kibuc,

The number of shares in issue has more than trebled since spring 2018 - be careful!

As I said in my previous post, there is the chance that politics may yet save this massive piece of shit. I see no profit potential for longer-term holders, such as myself, but getting in at 0.27p or similar might just show you some profit in the medium term.

Current management should be jailed, bum-raped and have their throats slit, though.

[Barnsey]

Anyone watch Andy Bailey’s evidence session at the treasury committee yesterday?  ... *tumbleweed* ... only me then?

In summary, most of it was about FCA conduct bollocks, but after that, huge yet surprisingly  under scrutinised comments (perhaps due to lack of understanding or time constraints) regarding MUCH looser fiscal policy. Also that we’ll probably head to zero bound rather quickly.

If you combine this change in discipline with waving bye bye to Javid and his spending rules, expect to see something epic in months and years ahead, a synchronised and determined partnership between Bailey and Sinak. No upper limit due to now coming under “investment” status.

I know we’ve been saying this for ages but fascinating to see it come to the fore in public policy relatively recently.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Anyone watch Andy Bailey’s evidence session at the treasury committee yesterday?  ... *tumbleweed* ... only me then?

In summary, most of it was about FCA conduct bollocks, but after that, huge yet surprisingly  under scrutinised comments (perhaps due to lack of understanding or time constraints) regarding MUCH looser fiscal policy. Also that we’ll probably head to zero bound rather quickly.

If you combine this change in discipline with waving bye bye to Javid and his spending rules, expect to see something epic in months and years ahead, a synchronised and determined partnership between Bailey and Sinak. No upper limit due to now coming under “investment” status.

I know we’ve been saying this for ages but fascinating to see it come to the fore in public policy relatively recently.

So is this the spark that starts the infrastructure investments?

Or do they mean "investment" in HTB4 and more affordable consumer debt?

 

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Anyone watch Andy Bailey’s evidence session at the treasury committee yesterday?  ... *tumbleweed* ... only me then?

In summary, most of it was about FCA conduct bollocks, but after that, huge yet surprisingly  under scrutinised comments (perhaps due to lack of understanding or time constraints) regarding MUCH looser fiscal policy. Also that we’ll probably head to zero bound rather quickly.

If you combine this change in discipline with waving bye bye to Javid and his spending rules, expect to see something epic in months and years ahead, a synchronised and determined partnership between Bailey and Sinak. No upper limit due to now coming under “investment” status.

I know we’ve been saying this for ages but fascinating to see it come to the fore in public policy relatively recently.

They have no choice.The economy has suffered from 40 years of too much consumption not enough production.The bond markets are screaming at the idiots to spend,but they just print instead to prop up asset prices.That is now failing,because more and more companies are simply zombies.Governments need to be spending massive amounts now,actually two years ago.In a credit money system the government needs to step in.It has allowed business to borrow and offshore far to much.That will reverse.China is going to suffer hugely from whats going to happen,and they will spend like never seen before.One belt one road will see massive investments.I think the UK will mainly focus on energy,and maybe defence spending,a lot for export.

I find it amazing that the gilt market is saying to the government you can borrow at 0.6% over 15 years,yet they ignore it.Not for much longer.

[DoINeedOne]

So was listening to a podcast today Joe Rogan funny enough the guest was one of the guys who helped create podcasts back in the early days of the internet

Anyway they start talking about vaping listen for the next 10 minutes video should start around 1:29:20 about how the tobacco company Altria bought Juul seems the they own 35% but anyway they go of topic a little then back to the story

The guy suggests that they are writing Juul off

Business insider had a article at the end of the year 2019 about Juul laying off 500 people and this

• Juul is planning to lay off between 10% and 15% of its workforce by the end of 2019, The Wall Street Journal's Jennifer Maloneyreported on Monday.
• A recent slash of Juul's valuation stripped cofounders Adam Bowen and James Monsees of their billionaire status, Forbes' Sergei Klebnikov reported October 4. Bown and Monsees are now worth $900 million apiece, Forbes estimates.
• The e-cigarette maker is reportedly under criminal investigationby the US Attorney's Office for the Northern District of California amid widespread public concern about its marketing tactics and the long-term health impacts of its products amid a rising number of vaping-related illnesses and deaths.
• On September 25, Juul announced that CEO Kevin Burnes had resigned and that it would stop advertising in the US.
• In a statement to Business Insider, Juul confirmed that the company would be making cuts to its workforce by the end of 2019 in order to "right-size the business."

Any way the Now CEO of Juul History 

Get rid of Juul to launch there new product 

https://uk.iqos.com

Anyway Interesting part was also about the tobacco bonds

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/a-boon-to-85-billion-muni-tobacco-bond-market-seen-in-fda-vote

 

Have a listen for 10-15 minutes

 

 

I need another beer

[BearyBear]

Wow, going to negative soon..?

https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield