Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[SillyBilly]

Bought just shy of £27k worth of oilies this week, my largest share is now Shell which I really like - will chuck a few more quid in if it goes down further, almost hope it does. I fancy it all day long at these prices. My business (chemical firm) buys lots of crude derivatives and so setting myself up for a nice hedge. Crude goes down further with more virus shenanigans my margins go up a few % in the business, crude goes up then my shares in the oilies go up on a personal level.

 

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Bought just shy of £27k worth of oilies this week, my largest share is now Shell which I really like - will chuck a few more quid in if it goes down further, almost hope it does. I fancy it all day long at these prices. My business (chemical firm) buys lots of crude derivatives and so setting myself up for a nice hedge. Crude goes down further with more virus shenanigans my margins go up a few % in the business, crude goes up then my shares in the oilies go up on a personal level.

 

 

 

Brave

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

It's on FT.com and is free.  A sub gives you access to the company financials (as well as a lot of mainly woke articles and comments!).

What I like is you can drill down by a mix of country/region and/or industry/sector all at the same time and, importantly, combined.  A lot of screeners limit you to a market at a time.  A proper data designer sorted that out!

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities?expandedScreener=true

I subbed to see what the financial, etc data was like.  Good.  All available on the slow Morningstar website for free but I loved the speed and things like the cash flow statement are presented better.  Has the feel of something developed with hard core user input.

My biggest gripe to date other than wokedom is you can't easily download a multi-page search screener result.  There should be a "select all" function rather than having to select page by page.  Also no export to Excel function but the cut and paste is Excel friendly.

Thanks Harley, looks as though we are a subscriber at work as well, so I get access as well! :-)

[Don Coglione]

49 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Brave

Can you share how you managed to more than triple your net worth over the last dozen or so years?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

18 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Can you share how you managed to more than triple your net worth over the last dozen or so years?

You still stalking. Crazy bastard. 

 

More doubled than trebbled 

Hard work, good fortune and compound intetest. 

 

Not owning a house or being sone sort of a crazy bastatd stalker helped. 

 

Have the police tracked ypu yet? A complaint has been made. 

If you hate me that much block me you sick bastard 

 

[Don Coglione]

4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You still stalking. Crazy bastard. 

 

More doubled than trebbled 

Hard work, good fortune and compound intetest. 

 

Not owning a house or being sone sort of a crazy bastatd stalker helped. 

 

Have the police tracked ypu yet? A complaint has been made. 

If you hate me that much block me you sick bastard 

 

I thought you had put me on ignore???

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

I thought you had put me on ignore???

I have, i had a look to see what you'd posted so i can report it. 

 

Keeping track of peoples finances over a 12 year period. 

 

Pretty fucking weird 

 

@spunko can you force this nutter to ignore me, his posts are sinister? 

[Barnsey]

US 10 year yield now below 1% for the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY

[headrow]

21 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You still stalking. Crazy bastard. 

 

More doubled than trebbled 

Hard work, good fortune and compound intetest. 

 

Not owning a house or being sone sort of a crazy bastatd stalker helped. 

 

Have the police tracked ypu yet? A complaint has been made. 

If you hate me that much block me you sick bastard 

 

Am i reading this right?  You have gone to the police over what somebody wrote on this forum?

I thought you've needed help for quite a while , please get some.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I think this is exactly right. All projects in an oil company are ranked on NPV and IRR. The best ones get sanctioned, the ones that dont pass get cut. All thats going to happen is that hydrogen/green projects will climb into the hopper, and get an increasingly higher share of capex. High oil prices will mske EP mega profitable short term but I'm guessing longer term projects will have to be discounted heavily due to carbon taxes or similar and so not compete. That's how it'll happen. Soon enough the lions share of the $50bn a year will be going into "energy". Who else will have that cash? These will again become the largest companies in the world, by far.

They sure will,and what people should remember is that during a reflation/inflation companies will struggle to raise equity or debt.So the only people who can invest are the ones gaining from the inflation.Im struggling with the likes of Schlumberger though CP.I think they are worth buying in ladders at these prices,but i worry that they will end up without a business,of course a long time after the next cycle,but still its a consideration.

[Democorruptcy]

How do we think helicopter money would be distributed? What would the rules be?

Means tested or everyone?

I'm not on the electoral roll and don't pay council tax. I'm registered at a doctors for an address I no longer live at. Driving licence is at a mate's.

I don't want to miss my share due to the compounding when I buy RDSB with it 

[dgul]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

How do we think helicopter money would be distributed? What would the rules be?

Means tested or everyone?

I'm not on the electoral roll and don't pay council tax. I'm registered at a doctors for an address I no longer live at. Driving licence is at a mate's.

I don't want to miss my share due to the compounding when I buy RDSB with it 

I think they'll manage to distribute money to exactly those people who are the least affected...

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, dgul said:

I think they'll manage to distribute money to exactly those people who are the least affected...

I hope it isn't a tax rebate. I'd have to get a job.

[dgul]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I hope it isn't a tax rebate. I'd have to get a job.

That would take too long to get into peoples' pockets.  It has to be cash in the present.

[Barnsey]

23 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

How do we think helicopter money would be distributed? What would the rules be?

Means tested or everyone?

I'm not on the electoral roll and don't pay council tax. I'm registered at a doctors for an address I no longer live at. Driving licence is at a mate's.

I don't want to miss my share due to the compounding when I buy RDSB with it 

I’m thinking tax cuts and grants which would encourage spending not hoarding, so VAT cut and generous government grants for home efficiency upgrades, increased EV car grant etc. If such measures don’t work only then can I envisage what we saw in HK.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Where would we all be sticking a 6 figure cash sum right now?

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, dgul said:

That would take too long to get into peoples' pockets.  It has to be cash in the present.

No, I meant a sudden payment one month instead of them taking anything.

Might make the bennies riot though, would have to add it to welfare, so that route is split and too complicated?

[Bricks & Mortar]

The Hong Kong Helicopter application forms won't be ready until start of summer, with distribution not likely until August.
HK is also going for a 100% reduction on salaries, profits and property taxes, with a ceiling of HK$ 20,000

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3052537/show-me-money-hongkongers-welcome-hk10000-handout

Doesn't look like the instant shot in the arm I thought it would be.

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

33 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Where would we all be sticking a 6 figure cash sum right now?

I'd be putting a higher portion of it into physical gold & silver than I would have done a fortnight ago.  Coronavirus is a potential problem for every company on the planet.  It's pretty much one worker gets it, and the rest all take a fortnight off simultaneously.  And if another comes down a week later...
So this has me not even liking the gold miners as much as I did.

[BearyBear]

3 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

The Hong Kong Helicopter application forms won't be ready until August.
HK is also going for a 100% reduction on salaries, profits and property taxes, with a ceiling of HK$ 20,000

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3052537/show-me-money-hongkongers-welcome-hk10000-handout

Doesn't look like the instant shot in the arm I thought it would be.

 

#HelicopterFail

They could just drop the money directly on protesters (if they start again which is dubious..?)

 

 

[Barnsey]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

#HelicopterFail

They could just drop the money directly on protesters (if they start again which is dubious..?)

 

 

Makes me think of the original (and still my fave) Batman movie from 1989, where Jack Nicholson as Joker shouts at the crowd “Who do you trust? Me, or the Batman? I’m giving away free money!”

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

The Hong Kong Helicopter application forms won't be ready until August.
HK is also going for a 100% reduction on salaries, profits and property taxes, with a ceiling of HK$ 20,000

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3052537/show-me-money-hongkongers-welcome-hk10000-handout

Doesn't look like the instant shot in the arm I thought it would be.

 

Thanks for the link.

I suppose delaying makes some sense, if a few die there's less to pay.

This bit sounds like the UK:

Quote

Those on comprehensive social security assistance, old age allowance, old age living allowance, disability allowance and work incentive transport subsidy would get an extra month’s payment, while public housing tenants in the lower income category will have one month’s rent waived.

All those different subsidies.

[Talking Monkey]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dollar index at 97,should be on the way to 90 or even buffer on the road map 87.That should send oil higher and bring in the bust that will be talked about in 100 years.

Tricky to buy US assets as sterling might rise circa 6%,but hopefully gains outpace that.Treasuries will gain,then fall back i expect over the next 3 of 4 months.

Il be tracking the $ and treasuries now mostly to try to pin down re-entry into them,iv sold IBTL today.

 

DB if the upcoming bust is going to be this bad what will the one  at the end of the next cycle be thought of

[Loki]

18 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB if the upcoming bust is going to be this bad what will the one  at the end of the next cycle be thought of

This is what bothers me - if after 7 years of new tech and let's say a whole new hydrogen based energy system, everything can just implode...shouldn't we be researching bug-out locations?

[Barnsey]

How low can you go?