Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Is now really the time to buy anything?

I thought we were still on the way down

I was buying, but I hadn’t bought anything since before Christmas. So compared to the past couple of months lots of stuff looked good value.

[MrXxxx]

20 hours ago, Harley said:

S:  Loving my new FT subscription.  Have to dodge the woke stuff but some jewels, the best being their stock screener. 

Stock screener?...is this an online tool via their website, and what does it allow you to do?

[MrXxxx]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

got tax down to as low as i can now,zero income or NI,very little VAT (buy everything 2nd hand) and fuel is £10 a week.Cant do anything with council tax though

Just as you folks appear passionate about getting your S&S sorted for retirement, this is mine...to make sure they get as little of my hard earned wealth in retirement as possible!...

[MrXxxx]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a shocking situation it really is.The whole industry is simply not good enough.I noticed today they are all trying to get the government to bring forward the move to 57 on pensions citing protecting the public,when we all know its more protecting their fees.The government is sending out a terrible message pushing back the age all the time.Im hoping they leave it as 57 in 2028 as im 55 in 2026 and would be able to go in drawn at 55 still.They shouldnt be able to change the dates on private pensions as people plan for decades.I hope you get the compo from them to cover losses.All these messages back and forth on simple questions is what frustrates things.

The first whiff I get of this becoming policy I will take the jump!...as you say, when people have made long term plans they (Govt) shouldn't be allowed to move the goal posts at the last minute.

[Lavalas]

Hydrogen / Big Oil news from yesterday...

https://renews.biz/58903/

A group of 10 organisations, including BP and Shell, active in the UK energy system today have launched the Hydrogen Taskforce aiming to offer a shared vision of the role of hydrogen in the transition to net zero emissions.

The taskforce has agreed a collective position on the next steps that must be taken to ensure the UK capitalises on opportunities from hydrogen to decarbonise cost-effectively at home, and to play a leading role in the growing global market for hydrogen solutions.

It aims to align a wide range of stakeholders including government, industry and an informed public with the aim of driving investment in hydrogen to promote its large-scale deployment across the economy.

The Hydrogen Taskforce also comprises Arup, Baxi, BOC, BNP Paribas and its vehicle leasing company Arval, Cadent, DBD, ITM Power and Storengy.

It has published a report – ‘The Role of Hydrogen in Delivering Net Zero’ – outlining a series of policy recommendations for industry and government to work towards over the next five years.

The action plan includes the development of a cross-departmental Hydrogen Strategy within UK government and commitment by government of £1bn over the next Spending Review Period to hydrogen production, storage and distribution projects.

The plan also calls for the development of financial support for the production of hydrogen for blending into the gas grid, industrial use, power generation and transport.

There should also be an amendment to Gas Safety Management Regulations to enable hydrogen blending into the UK gas grid and take the next steps towards 100% hydrogen heating through supporting public trials and mandating hydrogen-ready boilers by 2025.

Collaboration should also take place to establish 100 hydrogen refuelling stations by 2025 to support the roll-out of hydrogen transport.

The taskforce was launched at an event at the UK parliament that was attended by Energy Minister Kwasi Kwarteng and the MP for Redcar Jacob Young.

Young said: “The political, social and economic arguments for large scale hydrogen conversion have never been so strong.

“It is clear that we cannot meet our net zero 2050 target without hydrogen technology.

“From heating our homes, to our journeys to work, hydrogen can play a huge part in our decarbonisation in this decade.

“By taking the next steps and accelerating Hydrogen development programs we can create thousands of new, skilled, green jobs and continue to lead the world in the hydrogen economy.”

Arup director Mark Neller said he was delighted that the government had demonstrated its interest in the Hydrogen Taskforce and understood the importance of the project.

“We look forward to working closely with BEIS, HMT, DfT and MHCLG to realise the wide-reaching benefits and applications of hydrogen – early and deep decarbonisation, high quality jobs and value add to the UK economy,” he said.

[Heart's Ease]

7 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Hydrogen / Big Oil news from yesterday...

https://renews.biz/58903/

A group of 10 organisations, including BP and Shell, active in the UK energy system today have launched the Hydrogen Taskforce aiming to offer a shared vision of the role of hydrogen in the transition to net zero emissions.

The taskforce has agreed a collective position on the next steps that must be taken to ensure the UK capitalises on opportunities from hydrogen to decarbonise cost-effectively at home, and to play a leading role in the growing global market for hydrogen solutions.

It aims to align a wide range of stakeholders including government, industry and an informed public with the aim of driving investment in hydrogen to promote its large-scale deployment across the economy.

The Hydrogen Taskforce also comprises Arup, Baxi, BOC, BNP Paribas and its vehicle leasing company Arval, Cadent, DBD, ITM Power and Storengy.

It has published a report – ‘The Role of Hydrogen in Delivering Net Zero’ – outlining a series of policy recommendations for industry and government to work towards over the next five years.

The action plan includes the development of a cross-departmental Hydrogen Strategy within UK government and commitment by government of £1bn over the next Spending Review Period to hydrogen production, storage and distribution projects.

The plan also calls for the development of financial support for the production of hydrogen for blending into the gas grid, industrial use, power generation and transport.

There should also be an amendment to Gas Safety Management Regulations to enable hydrogen blending into the UK gas grid and take the next steps towards 100% hydrogen heating through supporting public trials and mandating hydrogen-ready boilers by 2025.

 

Interesting thanks for posting. Had our gas boiler serviced yesterday and chatted through a wide range of energy related subjects with the engineer. Went from gas boiler ban in new builds to his wife's Renault Zoe (she's also got a petrol car for longer drives (!) but they are pretty happy with it for her daily commute) to that new Citroen electric quadricycle that they've just launched, and ended up at hydrogen. He's a clued up guy - telling me there's one boiler on market atm, he's getting trained on installation when he can. 

[leonardratso]

must be why my ITM tanked with the rest of the market and then decided to +30% yesterday, mind you its AIM so expect that kind of shit from that kind of shit.

[Lavalas]

8 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Interesting thanks for posting. Had our gas boiler serviced yesterday and chatted through a wide range of energy related subjects with the engineer. Went from gas boiler ban in new builds to his wife's Renault Zoe (she's also got a petrol car for longer drives (!) but they are pretty happy with it for her daily commute) to that new Citroen electric quadricycle that they've just launched, and ended up at hydrogen. He's a clued up guy - telling me there's one boiler on market atm, he's getting trained on installation when he can. 

Talking to people on ‘the front line’ can be really valuable can’t it. Maybe a Baxi boiler. They’re on that list.

4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

must be why my ITM tanked with the rest of the market and then decided to +30% yesterday, mind you its AIM so expect that kind of shit from that kind of shit.

Was just looking at them as a possibility. Will investigate more but chart looks like it’s been a wild couple of days 😀

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Lavalas said:

Talking to people on ‘the front line’ can be really valuable can’t it. Maybe a Baxi boiler. They’re on that list.

Was just looking at them as a possibility. Will investigate more but chart looks like it’s been a wild couple of days 😀

look at the monthly for wild.

[Heart's Ease]

5 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Talking to people on ‘the front line’ can be really valuable can’t it. Maybe a Baxi boiler. They’re on that list.

Was just looking at them as a possibility. Will investigate more but chart looks like it’s been a wild couple of days 😀

Yes it was the Baxi mention that caught my eye. So much so I've shared that article with him 😁.

[DurhamBorn]

All this will go mainstream in a few years with hydrogen,but for now the MSM and mug punters all think oil companies are dead and everyone will have an electric car by the end of the decade.They wont.

Id expect we see a 20% hydrogen mix in the gas grid as first step.If they can then produce at pace dont rule out government funding new boilers for everyone in a mass capital spend.Its the sort of thing that might happen in a reflation.Shell and BP will probably have around $50 billion a year spare cash during the next cycle.Given they probably wont up EP spend they are going to have massive firepower to invest.If they dont they die in 30 years.If they do who knows.Maybe energy is all going to merge into a few big players.

 

[Loki]

43 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

its AIM so expect that kind of shit from that kind of shit.

Never a truer word written!

[Harley]

10 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

Sorry if this is a misinterpretation, or is  correct but blindingly obvious to most here, but it is a fascinating insight for me;

No way.  An enjoyable piece thanks.  I love the analogy.  Says a lot and highlights an independent mindset.  They delimit/define all sorts of things in which we are then expected to play, except some of us take a step back and have the courage to take on the more complex and real bigger picture.  The Dow is one such construct.  Sure, done very well, and ok if you know what's going on and don't get seduced but one day maybe.......  You sir are, for your sins, a disruptive contrarian!

[Barnsey]

Uh oh!

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Stock screener?...is this an online tool via their website, and what does it allow you to do?

It's on FT.com and is free.  A sub gives you access to the company financials (as well as a lot of mainly woke articles and comments!).

What I like is you can drill down by a mix of country/region and/or industry/sector all at the same time and, importantly, combined.  A lot of screeners limit you to a market at a time.  A proper data designer sorted that out!

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities?expandedScreener=true

I subbed to see what the financial, etc data was like.  Good.  All available on the slow Morningstar website for free but I loved the speed and things like the cash flow statement are presented better.  Has the feel of something developed with hard core user input.

My biggest gripe to date other than wokedom is you can't easily download a multi-page search screener result.  There should be a "select all" function rather than having to select page by page.  Also no export to Excel function but the cut and paste is Excel friendly.

[Loki]

Maybe one day @Harley! At the moment it would be a case of all the gear and no idea!

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Maybe one day @Harley! At the moment it would be a case of all the gear and no idea!

Indeed, I feel the pain.  I just bought a brand new chasing tool.  No idea!  Best I get my partner to read the manual!

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Uh oh!

 

If they don't do anything and the market drops 1000+, maybe they will apologise and say "Sorry we forgot the P.S. Here's the free money"?

[dgul]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Uh oh!

 

'We stand ready to respond'

markets not delighted...

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, kibuc said:

Don't worry, I stay fully invested. The only question is at which point should I tip the balance in favor of pure silver miners (Impact, Alexco) as currently I'm gold-heavy and these two seem like proper bargains.

Havign done a little research into similar things like yourself eg GS ratio,I'm going to run the goldies up first then as silver looks ready to run,we'l transfer heavily from gold to silver.As Ive said before,silver historically runs late and hard,.Unfortunately there's little data running back into silver miners in 1980 or even the 90's but it seems safe to assume that silver miners will leverage to the price of silver, and that at certain points in previous PM bul runs,silver leverages to the price of gold.Admittedly for short periods.

Despite having said that,and having said I wouldn't buy any more silver miners for now,we got some MAG silver yesterday.Just like I've sworn I wouldn't but any more AXU but I'm sorely tempted(we're in at $0.70 and $1.65)

14 hours ago, Tdog said:

Hotel company my brother works for are based in Hong Kong and theyve had to take pay cuts over the next 3 months.

He is saying the hotels have died an absolute death, pretty much no one in them. This is a large upmarket chain.

Mrs P works for a large US multinat and they've put lots of travel plans on hold.No two ways about it,this wil have an impact.More significant in some countries than others.

[dgul]

I continue to be surprised by the markets.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 minutes ago, dgul said:

I continue to be surprised by the markets.

I continue to be surprised that people think its a market 

[Loki]

Can reflationistas give me your thoughts on this fund that @M S E Refugee posted in the clean energy thread please?

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/v/vt-gravis-clean-energy-income-accumulation

It's free to deal which is a massive bonus with HL costing 12 quid to buy and 12 quid to sell

[sancho panza]

email in yesteday from saxobank

'Get ready for negative interest rates

We would like to inform you that from 1 April 2020, we will be introducing negative interest rates to our clients holding cash in EUR, CHF or DKK.

In 2019, the European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate to -0,5% to stimulate the economy. This has led numerous European financial institutions to follow suit, and effective 1 April 2020, Saxo will charge interest on EUR, CHF or DKK balances above the thresholds listed below.

The threshold and interest will be applied to the available Net Free Equity in your main trading account, as well as the account value on subaccounts.

For positive Net Free Equity/Account Value in EUR, CHF and DKK, the interest will be the central bank rate plus the markdown. Interest will be charged on Account Values/Net Free Equity less threshold. For positive Net Free Equity/Account Value in other currencies, the interest will be the highest of either: the market bid rates minus the markdown or zero. Interest will be paid on Account Values/Net Free Equity less threshold. For negative Net Free Equity/Account Value, interest will be market ask rates plus a mark-up, however never less than the mark-up. Interest will be charged on the full amount for all Account Values/Net Free Equity.

The rates charged are subject to change based on central bank rates.

For more information on Net Free Equity, please click here.

Threshold Rate for balances for threshold EUR 100,000 -0,50% CHF 100,000 -0,75% DKK 750,000 -0,75%

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

email in yesteday from saxobank

'Get ready for negative interest rates

We would like to inform you that from 1 April 2020, we will be introducing negative interest rates to our clients holding cash in EUR, CHF or DKK.

In 2019, the European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate to -0,5% to stimulate the economy. This has led numerous European financial institutions to follow suit, and effective 1 April 2020, Saxo will charge interest on EUR, CHF or DKK balances above the thresholds listed below.

The threshold and interest will be applied to the available Net Free Equity in your main trading account, as well as the account value on subaccounts.

For positive Net Free Equity/Account Value in EUR, CHF and DKK, the interest will be the central bank rate plus the markdown. Interest will be charged on Account Values/Net Free Equity less threshold. For positive Net Free Equity/Account Value in other currencies, the interest will be the highest of either: the market bid rates minus the markdown or zero. Interest will be paid on Account Values/Net Free Equity less threshold. For negative Net Free Equity/Account Value, interest will be market ask rates plus a mark-up, however never less than the mark-up. Interest will be charged on the full amount for all Account Values/Net Free Equity.

The rates charged are subject to change based on central bank rates.

For more information on Net Free Equity, please click here.

Threshold Rate for balances for threshold EUR 100,000 -0,50% CHF 100,000 -0,75% DKK 750,000 -0,75%

The bankers aren't even hiding their theft now.