Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Barnsey]

Oil has just hit $43 like you said @DurhamBorn Futures for tomorrow morning down 2-3%, lets see if we hear from the Fed first thing tomorrow.

[Barnsey]

28 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

All this talk of electric and/or hydrogen vehicles got me wondering what future 'money' will look like.

The %age of vehicles (new or second hand) bought with savings must be miniscule these days. So who the fuck is going to have equivalent £35k to get an eco-friendly chariot after the biggest credit event in history?!

Exactly! Perhaps we can expect a generous “covert helicopter money” scrappage scheme from U.K. Gov in 2021/2

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, confused said:

@sancho panza thanks for replying and doing some number crunching <thumbs up emoji>

I will follow your lead and use worldometer figures which show the mortality rate in Wuhan at 4.8%

Now I will try and predict death rates in the UK...rather than use a 4.8% mortality let's use Italy as they are white Europeans

Italy death rate is 2.6%

Current UK population let's say 68 million - A report from the UK government last week said up to 80% of the population could get it

Let's be optimistic and say only 60% of UK will get it

That's 41 million cases in the UK

With a death rate of 2.6% that is over 1 million UK deaths, with 4.8% that is almost 2 million UK deaths

'Escape to the country' anyone? 

A couple of points

Firstly,even if all the current cases in China occurred in Wuhan,it's less than 1% of the population there.If any city was going to suffer an infection rate of 60% then it would be Wuhan given that the virus was roaming unchecked for a month or two.The chance of the UK suffering a 60% infection rate is close to zero imho.There's jsut no evidence to suport it.

Secondly the mortlaity rate will be lower(and implicitly the infection rate higher) given that many won't present at their GP' with it

 

Good precy here

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Editor's note: Updated Feb. 19 with the latest information on COVID-19. 

The new coronavirus outbreak has made headlines in recent weeks, but there's another viral epidemic hitting countries around the world: flu season. But how do these viruses compare, and which one is really more worrisome?

 

So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about COVID-19 because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause. 

Related: Get live updates on new coronavirus

All about COVID-19

(Image credit: Shutterstock)

—See live updates on the new coronavirus
—How deadly is COVID-19?
—Why are children 'missing' from coronavirus outbreak?
—Will a face mask protect you?

"Despite the morbidity and mortality with influenza, there's a certainty … of seasonal flu," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a White House press conference on Jan. 31. "I can tell you all, guaranteed, that as we get into March and April, the flu cases are going to go down. You could predict pretty accurately what the range of the mortality is and the hospitalizations [will be]," Fauci said. "The issue now with [COVID-19] is that there's a lot of unknowns." 

Scientists are racing to find out more about COVID-19, and our understanding of the virus that causes it and the threat it poses may change as new information becomes available. Based on what we know so far, here's how it compares with the flu.

 

Symptoms and severity

Both seasonal flu viruses (which include influenza A and influenza B viruses) and COVID-19 are contagious viruses that cause respiratory illness. 

Typical flu symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches, runny or stuffy nose, fatigue and, sometimes, vomiting and diarrhea, according to the CDC. Flu symptoms often come on suddenly. Most people who get the flu will recover in less than two weeks. But in some people, the flu causes complications, including pneumonia. So far this flu season, about 1% of people in the United States have developed symptoms severe enough to be hospitalized, which is similar to the rate last season, according to data from the CDC.

With COVID-19, doctors are still trying to understand the full picture of disease symptoms and severity. In a small study of about 100 people with the virus, published Jan. 30 in the journal The Lancet, the most common symptoms were fever, cough and shortness of breath. Only about 5% of patients in that study reported sore throat and runny nose, and only 1-2% reported diarrhea, nausea and vomiting. 

In a more recent study, considered the largest on COVID-19 cases to date, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, analyzed 44,672 confirmed cases in China between Dec. 31, 09 and Feb. 11, 2020. Of those cases, 80.9% (or 36,160 cases) were considered mild, 13.8% (6,168 cases) severe and 4.7% (2,087) critical. "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure," the researchers wrote in the paper published in China CDC Weekly.

It's important to note that, because respiratory viruses cause similar symptoms, it can be difficult to distinguish different respiratory viruses based on symptoms alone, according to WHO.

Death rate

So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data. 

The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu. 

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times. 

Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date. 

 

Virus transmission

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science previously reported.

Risk of infection

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The CDC estimates that, on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick with the flu each season.

There are currently 29 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. Still, newly emerged viruses like this one are always of public health concern, according to the CDC. It's unclear how the situation with this virus in the U.S. will unfold, the agency said. Some people, such as health care workers, are at increased risk for exposure to COVID-19. But for the general American public, the immediate health risk from the virus is low at this time.

Pandemics

 

It's important to note that seasonal flu, which causes outbreaks every year, should not be confused with pandemic flu, or a global outbreak of a new flu virus that is very different from the strains that typically circulate. This happened in 2009 with the swine flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 151,000 and 575,000 people worldwide, according to the CDC. There is no flu pandemic happening currently.

The COVID-19 outbreak has not yet been declared a pandemic, as the majority of cases have occurred in China. But on Jan. 30, the WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern." The declaration was primarily due to concern that the virus could spread to countries with weaker health systems.

Prevention

 

Unlike seasonal flu, for which there is a vaccine to protect against infection, there is no vaccine for COVID-19. But researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health are in the early stages of developing one. Officials plan to launch a phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine for COVID-19 within the next three months.

In general, the CDC recommends the following to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, which include both coronaviruses and flu viruses: Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands; avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick; and clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Oil has just hit $43 like you said @DurhamBorn Futures for tomorrow morning down 2-3%, lets see if we hear from the Fed first thing tomorrow.

Iv looked at my road map but the sentiment indicators are just useless at the minute as they go off the scale.However if i take my sentiment to a 3x (thats the highest possible iv ever used) it still shows a turn in oil above $40.That road map work on oil has saved me a hell of a lot of money by seeing me miss most of the falls in the sector.My tracking is showing Shell should be down another 6% though with oil at $43,so interesting to see if that happens.

[Barnsey]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Asia just opened, 90 point gap down on S&P. Not too bad, all things considered.

No gap down in gold or oil, very small one in silver.

Update: following BoJ stimulus announcement overnight, most if not all global index futures are now in the green before market open, and Gold/Silver/Oil even more in the green. Markets were desperately waiting to hear central banks have their backs, but now the Fed is boxed in and must comply.

Oil has indeed only briefly tagged $43, and now heads up to your pre bust target @DurhamBorn , hats off to you sir 

[Majorpain]

52 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Update: following BoJ stimulus announcement overnight, most if not all global index futures are now in the green before market open, and Gold/Silver/Oil even more in the green. Markets were desperately waiting to hear central banks have their backs, but now the Fed is boxed in and must comply.

Oil has indeed only briefly tagged $43, and now heads up to your pre bust target @DurhamBorn , hats off to you sir 

These "markets" are an absolute joke.  Still, go Gold go!

QE to infinity and beyond....

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, JMD said:

appears that 'Market Cap' rules wherever you turn these days. Although, upon checking I can see that telecom managed funds/trusts also hold quiet similar stock holdings.

This is the issue with (some) ETFs, not that all ETFs and/or passive investing is bad. In fact can give those with relatively small sums access to greater diversification. I also read somewhere that you can get DIY ETFs in the US, where you pick the company's and % of ETF...not sure of the fees on these, and how you would check their respective performance against an index (I.e what index?), but it seems to solve the main issue of market cap.

[Barnsey]

13 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

These "markets" are an absolute joke.  Still, go Gold go!

QE to infinity and beyond....

COVID19 not getting any better, yet markets heard "liquidity" and are responding in expected fashion, Brent up 4%! Everything else well and truly green (for now).

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, onlyme said:

Last one on EV vs Hydrogen on this thread (will copy over to the clean energy one), tried to do a running cost comparison - purchase cost comparison in table too.

Two Hyundais. the Nexo is a bigger car but  not much. obviously just a current comparison and the figures can change, but:

For 100km range price comparison works out:

Kona (EV)

Off peak 3p per KWH - £0.43 per 100km

Standard Tariff Av about 14p per KWh  - £2 per 100km

Nexo (Fuel Cell) - £10 per KG H2 - £9.50 per 100km.

Warranties about the same, Nexo has very short service interval of 6,000 miles, can refuel in 5 minutes though. Kona can charge at 50KW, so can top up a good amount in half an hour if full overnight charge on economy rate not enough for day's driving.

 

But is this a fair/meaningful comparison?...in all technologies the new adopter pays `top dollar`, but revisit in 3-5 years and it could be a very different narrative...just saying :-)

[dgul]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

COVID19 not getting any better, yet markets heard "liquidity" and are responding in expected fashion, Brent up 4%! Everything else well and truly green (for now).

It has all gone rather mad.

[onlyme]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

But is this a fair/meaningful comparison?...in all technologies the new adopter pays `top dollar`, but revisit in 3-5 years and it could be a very different narrative...just saying :-)

It is probably not too far off, both techs are  improving, the Nexo is actually Hyundai's second gen FC car, 50% increase in fuel cell stack energy density, 5% overall improvement in efficiency on their second spin.

Considering the number of different new battery chemistries being investigated I think the chances of one tech leapfrogging in the other in terms cost/efficiency probably on balance in favour of the EV. H2 production, storage, distribution may get cheaper but with such a large differential it needs to get way cheaper to be even in the same ballpark.

[Barnsey]

And there it is...

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Update: following BoJ stimulus announcement overnight, most if not all global index futures are now in the green before market open, and Gold/Silver/Oil even more in the green. Markets were desperately waiting to hear central banks have their backs, but now the Fed is boxed in and must comply.

Oil has indeed only briefly tagged $43, and now heads up to your pre bust target @DurhamBorn , hats off to you sir 

Incredible eh,these road maps are around 70% data inputs the same as the 70s,but iv x2 x3 etc on a few indicators and cross marker a few extra things.Sentiment is a much bigger driver than it used to be due to the interent etc.I expect we will see a big rally,perhaps the last one in indexes but could be choppy for the first couple of weeks.

 

[Loki]

The great thing about having a portfolio based on this thread is that even on days like today you're not left thinking 'Should i sell?'  

[Hardhat]

9 minutes ago, Loki said:

The great thing about having a portfolio based on this thread is that even on days like today you're not left thinking 'Should i sell?'  

Based on the ideas here, you'd be fine to hold most until at least 2027

[Bricks & Mortar]

46 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

COVID19 not getting any better, yet markets heard "liquidity" and are responding in expected fashion, Brent up 4%! Everything else well and truly green (for now).

Bad news sells.
Nobody wants to report that the number of active cases has been falling for more than a fortnight.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#active-cases

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Based on the ideas here, you'd be fine to hold most until at least 2027

Thanks I'd been wondering if that was the sort of time frame durhamborn had in mind, it seemed to be.  

[Agent ZigZag]

22 minutes ago, Loki said:

The great thing about having a portfolio based on this thread is that even on days like today you're not left thinking 'Should i sell?'  

I just wish I could buy the oil sector. Hargreaves still havent transferred my pension to my SIPP. I fear I my miss out here big time.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I just wish I could buy the oil sector. Hargreaves still havent transferred my pension to my SIPP. I fear I my miss out here big time.

I've noted your ongoing issues with that. Gutted for you mate.  I Only have my ISA with them and never had to contact them

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, onlyme said:

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

But is this a fair/meaningful comparison?...in all technologies the new adopter pays `top dollar`, but revisit in 3-5 years and it could be a very different narrative...just saying :-)

It is probably not too far off, both techs are  improving, the Nexo is actually Hyundai's second gen FC car, 50% increase in fuel cell stack energy density, 5% overall improvement in efficiency on their second spin.

Considering the number of different new battery chemistries being investigated I think the chances of one tech leapfrogging in the other in terms cost/efficiency probably on balance in favour of the EV. H2 production, storage, distribution may get cheaper but with such a large differential it needs to get way cheaper to be even in the same ballpark.

I'm convinced it will be a combination of both technologies due to the inherent synergies. (My god, I'm starting to sound like my managers at work!) Plug in Battery for short distance commutes, and Hydrogen reverse electrolysis for the long hauls.

As MrXxxx says this technology will have improved multitudes in the next ten years.

[DurhamBorn]

 

37 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I just wish I could buy the oil sector. Hargreaves still havent transferred my pension to my SIPP. I fear I my miss out here big time.

Im in a similar boat in a way as im waiting on a transfer.It is seperate to my portfolio,but still iv never known anything more frustrating that these pension transfer.It has nearly driven me mad sorting it out.What hope the lads i used to work with?.

[CVG]

IAG down another 7% today. I'm going to have to open a position at this price!

[Majorpain]

45 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Bad news sells.
Nobody wants to report that the number of active cases has been falling for more than a fortnight.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#active-cases

That number is dependent on people with the virus actually being tested and governments not downplaying the number of cases.

Italy changed the definition of "infected" from having the virus in your system to having the virus with symptoms.  Since you can spread it with no symptoms its not exactly helpful.....

[NogintheNog]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

47 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I just wish I could buy the oil sector. Hargreaves still havent transferred my pension to my SIPP. I fear I my miss out here big time.

Im in a similar boat in a way as im waiting on a transfer.It is seperate to my portfolio,but still iv never known anything more frustrating that these pension transfer.It has nearly driven me mad sorting it out.What hope the lads i used to work with?.

I'm in the same boat. Currently trying to move a pension to a SIPP and Phoenix Life couldn't be more inept if they tried. I asked them to sell the assets over a week ago and still nothing has happened! But who best to complain to? The FCA?

[Noallegiance]

Just now, NogintheNog said:

I'm in the same boat. Currently trying to move a pension to a SIPP and Phoenix Life couldn't be more inept if they tried. I asked them to sell the assets over a week ago and still nothing has happened! But who best to complain to? The FCA?

Me, too.

Could this be a combination of the incapability of modern companies to simply do their job alongside liquidity problems?