Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[BearyBear]

4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

While financial markets are CRASHING Worldwide...

 

"Coronavirus 'may increase UK property sales' as prices hit Record HIGH!"

 

YOU just couldn't make this up if ya tried!

Hahaha 

One estate agent said the market could continue to rebound despite the coronavirus pandemic, with cancelled holidays potentially pushing up the number of buyers in the summer.

Yep, I've saved £1000 on my Spanish holidays so I can finally buy a £500k 2bed ex-council terrace I was always dreaming about.

[MrXxxx]

Like people's thoughts on a PM approach/sounding out my financial learning through scenarios...all assumes price remains constant...

...now, base scenarios on £3k/6k of an ETF [say SGPD] it has an initial purchase cost of 0.5, with an additional annual TER of ~0.5, this equates to £15/30 pa cost and gives a diversification across 51 holdings.

The alternative is to buy say £1k each of top 3 (~33%) or 6 holdings (~50%) (Newmont/Barrick/Franco/Newcrest/Agnico/Kirkland) where the initial purchase costs will be higher I.e.3x0.5%/6x0.5%, but as there is no annual TER the latter will be gaining an additional 0.5% from yr2 onwards.

Q1. Basically what I am asking is that what is the `sweet spot` where diversification is good enough to go for an individual share vs ETF approach?

Q2. PM`s in a portfolio are used as a hedge against inflation. As majority of PMs are traded in US$ in  a UK context is it better to buy a hedged ETF (sterling against dollar) or a non-hedged version?...trying to get my head around this one as for a UK resident (spending in a UK market) to me, the former would appear to be a double-hedge (£ vs $, PM vs UK inflation) where £/$ ex rate is irrelevant after you have shares in hand, and so unnecessary?!

Hopefully this makes sense?..Thoughts/comments?

[BWW]

7 minutes ago, Iamcynical said:

I read that also.  That cries of desperation !! Trying to hook the last fool before it turns to shit..

RM asking price index is a measure of house-seller-delusion not house prices.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Yep, I've saved £1000 on my Spanish holidays so I can finally buy a £500k 2bed ex-council terrace I was always dreaming about.

It will be interesting to see what happens with UK holidays let, particularly as I've been in one nearly a year! Will her bookings stop and cancellations start come in or will the lack of foreign holidays help her bookings as staycations? I would think definitely down overall. I suppose it depends on how far down the lock down scale we go, could be forced closure. Owners here are stuck in the Canaries sweating on a Tui flight this week!

[Bricks & Mortar]

18 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

While financial markets are CRASHING Worldwide...

 

"Coronavirus 'may increase UK property sales' as prices hit Record HIGH!"

 

YOU just couldn't make this up if ya tried!

Might be quite a few people who previously shared a house, suddenly deciding they'd rather have one each.

[MrXxxx]

6 minutes ago, BWW said:

RM asking price index is a measure of house-seller-delusion not house prices.

Whether its house prices (and a threat of a disappearing ladder) or Covid19 (and a threat of disappearing toilet paper) the majority of people will believe the narrative being promoted (by the MSM/vested interests), and get `sucked in` to a buying frenzy/scam.

[DoINeedOne]

I don't hold but jesus

 

And i always thought WH smiths focusing on stores in train stations and airports would be a good move again don't hold 

 

[Iamcynical]

6 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I don't hold but jesus

 

And i always thought WH smiths focusing on stores in train stations and airports would be a good move again don't hold 

 

I shorted William Hill this morning, just for beer money.  It was a fairly easy £77.

[BearyBear]

Silver wow... my broker (IG) says on my short: call to close. Never seen that before.

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I don't hold but jesus

 

Betting shops will probably be shut down eventually but horse racing is supposedly going on behind closed doors for now. No shop machines income but people stuck at home bored betting on the internet, poker, casino etc. ? 

[NogintheNog]

30 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Strange thing I've just noticed, many of the FTSE stocks discussed here are currently sitting right at 2008 lows!

Well, I've watched 10 years of re-invested dividends evaporate in my S&S ISA. Much of that is in the oilies! Lucky that I don't need the money for quite a few years yet! Waiting for the opening bell on the Dow as I suspect TOT may hit another ladder today.

We all wanted this fight, but the punches still hurt!

[CVG]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Betting shops will probably be shut down eventually but horse racing is supposedly going on behind closed doors for now. No shop machines income but people stuck at home bored betting on the internet, poker, casino etc. ? 

...and porn. How do I get into it?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

My reflation stocks are 40-50% down now.#

Anyone panicking yet ?

Last time I listen to some random on the internet 

Still, if it all pans out the way we expect these might be all we have left

42 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

While financial markets are CRASHING Worldwide...

 

"Coronavirus 'may increase UK property sales' as prices hit Record HIGH!"

 

YOU just couldn't make this up if ya tried!

Lets see what @UKPropertyLion reports in 3 weeks

[NogintheNog]

10 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

11 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

How comes the DOW doesn't like it I thought this is what the markets were looking for

Perhaps the game is up. It looks like a panic move. So panic!

Surprise stimulus???

Wasn't much of a surprise to us

They were obviously trying to front run what they knew was going to happen today, but it hasn't had the desired effect. Still they do have the 'kitchen sink' available to throw at it. ($20 trillion DB?). Currency crisis inbound...

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, CVG said:

...and porn. How do I get into it?

I read last week that Porn Hub went free for people in Italy when they went into lock down. 

[BearyBear]

10 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

My reflation stocks are 40-50% down now.#

Anyone panicking yet ?

I'm panicking I've closed my silver shorts too early   but still, a -10% move in one day needs a bit of a bounce and  I need to get back to real work...

[Castlevania]

18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Betting shops will probably be shut down eventually but horse racing is supposedly going on behind closed doors for now. No shop machines income but people stuck at home bored betting on the internet, poker, casino etc. ? 

They’ve got £200m of bonds to roll over this year. They do have a revolving credit facility of £450m. I’d draw that down immediately just in case the banks try and reduce/close the facility.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They’ve got £200m of bonds to roll over this year. They do have a revolving credit facility of £450m. I’d draw that down immediately just in case the banks try and reduce/close the facility.

I did wonder about debt and the casino stuff in the USA might go in lock down. 

Re betting overall, it's like cigs or booze to some people they will have to find a way. Things aren't looking good but imagine this pre-internet gambling! 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

This aint over by a long way.

Someone I know in London just said his very sick girlfriend, who is struggling to breath was sent home from hospital without being tested.

The nurse said they are struggling to cope and it was all kicking off.

The establishment are not telling the whole truth.

[MrXxxx]

25 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

ast time I listen to some random on the internet

Know this is said in jest Count, but is why its taken me 12 months of pontificating before I bought my first share...being down is not nice, but knowing it was my decision (and something I can be learning from) in a perverse way makes it feel less painful...until of course someone posts today that they bought the same shares £xs lower, especially as I am trying to ignore the tickers/current prices :-) :-) :-)

[Castlevania]

First Group is down 57%

[Boon]

Anyone buying today?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Know this is said in jest Count, but is why its taken me 12 months of pontificating before I bought my first share...being down is not nice, but knowing it was my decision (and something I can be learning from) in a perverse way makes it feel less painful...until of course someone posts today that they bought the same shares £xs lower, especially as I am trying to ignore the tickers/current prices :-) :-) :-)

Dont worry, I was only joking.  I agree with DB, we are facing a major collapse, better 50% of something that 100% of nothing.  

 

I have a LARGE chuck of cash sitting in my share dealing account just waiting.

I wont buy until the numbers start coming down.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, dgul said:

Not quite sure what'll help the markets at this stage.  They've allowed a market rout to turn into a liquidity event.  It'll take even more cash injection to turn around the (now accelerating in the wrong direction) supertanker.

Exactly,and its all setting in play for the reflation cycle to come.The falls are roughly where i expected in most of my targets,some past,some more to go.I have no idea how far we will over shoot etc,but once im positioned il go back to fishing,walking,astronomy,building camps with my grand children and spend one hour a week reading any results from companies,re-investing dividends etc.

My road maps prepared me for the falls to come and helped me side step the initial big hits.You then face into buying ,you accept the pain.I bought the last of my oilies today,potash finished,telcos mostly complete,and im looking at around 14% down on them at this stage on sectors down 60% to 80%.

I really feel for a lot of sectors here,good companies getting destroyed.

The first share i ever bought Imperial Brands (when it was owned by Hanson Trust) is leading the charge higher ,maybe everyone has decided to go back on the Lambert and Butlers while stuck at home 

[Castlevania]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I did wonder about debt and the casino stuff in the USA might go in lock down. 

Re betting overall, it's like cigs or booze to some people they will have to find a way. Things aren't looking good but imagine this pre-internet gambling! 

If people are going to be stuck at home you’d think the online casino, poker, bingo traffic would increase, but cancellation of sports is not good - Flutter came out with a profit warning this morning.