Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Gordon Bennett ...Card Factory down to 47p!

 

I WAS going to make a comment about this company with whats going on with CV, BUT i'm sure ya'll all agree in would be in bad taste!

 

 

 

Surprised, thought it would rise with the increased demand for `Get well soon` cards, or even `Sorry to hear of your loss`...couldn't think of a better `Win-Win` situation! :-) :-) :-)

 

Mods, if you think this is a little distasteful and/or likely to cause offense please delete, my humour can be a little `dark` at times.

[BWW]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

China is pretty much back on stream.I ran an import business and my agent in China said most are back working,but of course a lot of backlog etc and they are serving their main customers first.

Understandably no-one believes chinese boomer remover numbers but Singapore / HK and Taiwan are also reporting eradication of the virus.

Provided those countries don't let us disease ridden folk back in surely it's all over which means any shares that rely mainly on those markets are about to sky rocket. If measures in Europe [excluding UK] are likely to result in the same outcome, conclusion could be the same? Buy now?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

24 minutes ago, Boon said:

What's with the housebuilders getting caned? 

Is this saying that house price values are going to fall?

Dont be daft, house prices dont fall.  

It's different this time

You cant lose on bricks and mortar

Buy now before they miss out

 

[JMD]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Crazy,i think our angle here in the UK is the right one.My dad is self isolating now.He isnt happy but accepts it.Like he says the over 70s all get a pension,so they dont have to go to work.He walks the dog on a morning but isnt going to the shops,club,anything now.Im doing his shopping etc.I phone him 4 times a day though,chat about the markets etc.

Governments telling pubs to close,who is going to pay the bills?,nuts.

DB, maybe get your dad a copy of 'The Gods never left us' (recent sequel to the 70's 'classic' 'Chariots of the Gods') from the local library. I think you said he was into off-world alien ancestry so it might help while away a few hours for him whilst confined to the house. But to be honest anything's got to be better (even reading Eric von Daniken!), rather than contemplating our ravaged portfolios!

...On an investment tack, did you (or others here) have any AK Steel corp?... I did have small amount, but it appears to have been abducted (not aliens again?) from the market!

[BWW]

8 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Hi BMW, not questioning your sincerity (and don't know your circumstances), but if you had any confidence in your crash statement why would you not be bothered about paying a much lower price by waiting a couple of years?...I could understand this in a share buying approach where the alternative is staying in cash with low rates/inflation eroding capital, but rental cost/loss to buying is minimal over a two year period, especially compared to the savings that could be made in only a relatively small % drop?!

Some of the reasons:

A. Have been waiting 4 years and want a house/land I can use.

B. Confident I will be happy with what I am buying. Doesn't really matter what it cost.

C. Relieved not to have that money in fiat within the financial system.

D. Profit on waiting would make no difference to my possibilities in life whatsoever. That's how worthless cash has become. Realise my situation is not typical but am probably poorer than many around me with huge pensions. There is nothing I would do if I had more cash that I can't do now anyway.

E. I was equally confident that irrational 2004 London prices let alone 2007 prices could not be sustained. Offer me a house at those prices now and I'll snap your hand off.

F. Money is from previous house sale so am just swapping one house for another different one.

G. I am [over 50 with one co-morbidity] old enough to be on the die list should I need a hospital in the UK when ICU is oversubscribed. Need to be in another country if I need triage to be done according to ability to pay.

Am I bothered about the potentional [paper] "loss"? ... nope. Rational? Or not?

[Alifelessbinary]

7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Dont be daft, house prices dont fall.  

It's different this time

You cant lose on bricks and mortar

Buy now before they miss out

 

While this quote is now likely to be incorrect, if you had brought a house in London any time since 1996 it has been true!  It just goes to show how irrational markets can be and you sit on the sideline at your peril.

This is shaping up to be the true crash that should’ve occurred in 2008.

This will have a profound impact culturally throughout the world.

I've still got about 25% cash and will be drop feeding into the market. To take the emotion out of the situation I’ve set my account to auto buy over the next 12 months. I’m also wacking the full allocation into my pension which is a first. 

Good luck everyone, as the doors have been well and truly blown off.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

26 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

While this quote is now likely to be incorrect, if you had brought a house in London any time since 1996 it has been true!  It just goes to show how irrational markets can be and you sit on the sideline at your peril.

This is shaping up to be the true crash that should’ve occurred in 2008.

This will have a profound impact culturally throughout the world.

I've still got about 25% cash and will be drop feeding into the market. To take the emotion out of the situation I’ve set my account to auto buy over the next 12 months. I’m also wacking the full allocation into my pension which is a first. 

Good luck everyone, as the doors have been well and truly blown off.

You've not seen my previews 12 years of posts have you ? 

 

Anyway

 

COUNTRYWIDE PLC (CWD) ORD GBP0.01

Sell:71.55p Buy:73.00p  89.75p (54.51%)

 

The share consolidation was x50, that makes there share price in old money down to 1.44p

 

It was at 7 when the share consolodation occurred, so a drop of 90%

 

They have to be screwed

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

4983....

How low can it go ?

Im saying 3500 and Im in.

3500 looks like a fair level to go long.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

3500 looks like a fair level to go long.

All things being normal. yes.  I start laddering in around 4.

But things aint normal.

 

[BWW]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

3500 looks like a fair level to go long.

Only 3 to 4 days of -9.x%

[BearyBear]

Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

All things being normal. yes.  I start laddering in around 4.

But things aint normal.

 

This time is really different as we're heading to multiple cycles end + coronavirus nightmare. I'm not sure if I really buy at 3500.

[Festival]

Last 14 days have been brutal and I have taken significant losses on shares, partially offset by some gains in TLT and a relatively large cash percentage.  I have only bought a small oil holding in RSDB so far on the way down. My ladders in the FTSE are at the following levels:

4500

3750 

3000

I intend to employ equal amounts at each level and take shares up from 40% of portfolio to 70% of portfolio if we get to 3000.

Where are others setting their ladders and what are they planning to buy?

I'm still looking at what to buy as the market seems to be pricing in default in a large number of companies ATM but I want to try and focus on particular sectors (eg energy, telcos) to sit alongside current holdings in gold, oil, chemicals sectors.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BearyBear]

I want to see the big names like Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Facebook and Google bleeding.

[Harley]

Is CoinInvest now charging VAT on silver coins?

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Surprised, thought it would rise with the increased demand for `Get well soon` cards, or even `Sorry to hear of your loss`...couldn't think of a better `Win-Win` situation! :-) :-) :-)

 

Mods, if you think this is a little distasteful and/or likely to cause offense please delete, my humour can be a little `dark` at times.

I like pre-socialist humour

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have drawn up a shopping list so I just need to be patient.

What's on it?

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

What's on it?

Oil,Commodities,Consumer Staples and Utilities.

[Cosmic]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What's on it?

Toilet roll.

Beans.

Pasta.

Hand wash.

[MrXxxx]

11 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I like pre-socialist humour

I want to go `Long` on energy but can't decide, perhaps you folks here can help me...

 

...crematoria, are they gas or oil fired?

[Cosmic]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

I want to go `Long` on energy but can't decide, perhaps you folks here can help me...

 

...crematoria, are they gas or oil fired?

Go long mass graves... JCB?

[reformed nice guy]

Guys, Im starting to doubt the value of index trackers 

[janch]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Surprised, thought it would rise with the increased demand for `Get well soon` cards, or even `Sorry to hear of your loss`...couldn't think of a better `Win-Win` situation! :-) :-) :-)

Well I don't mind your sense of humour since I own some and it's all looking a bit sick at the mo'

[Castlevania]

Goldcore just sent me an email. They’ll buy silver coins at 10% over spot and 100 oz bars at 7% over spot. Downside is that they have to be in their vaults to begin with. However, something doesn’t seem right.

[NogintheNog]

3 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

3 hours ago, kibuc said:

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Well this is brutal. How low do we think the GDXJ will fall to? $15? Lower? 

Today, or in general?

 

Whoa!

There goes another few grand!

Ha ha ha ha.....

 

Futures was pricing in an 18% drop. Is this the bottom for goldies???

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, NogintheNog said:

Ha ha ha ha.....

 

This market is way too volatile for short term trading. That is quite the swing. GDXJ is up 25% from it’s low.