Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

How would he do that please explain

Doesn't anyone have a sense of humour ?

Or do you think I could be right 

I'd thank DB but I'm doing 40%

I'll thank him when Im up 500.

10 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

How far?

The DOW was between 7000 and 8000 points in 2009 and the FTSE  traded from around 3800 to 5400 in the same year.

Sounds about right.

The DOW was a proper mega bubble

[BearyBear]

16 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It's a biggy.

 

20,188.52 −2,997.10 (12.93%)

 

It's gonna keep going 

It wasn't different this time after all.

Trump will soon order Helicopter Money and instruct all Americans to sit at home and buy stocks so he can say look the stock market is doing great, you have to re-elect me!

[Harley]

A ray of sunshine?  Momentum (Stochastic) picked up today on many of my income stocks.  MACDs still mostly on the down, although the odd daily buy signal for the brave!

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im going to take a step back now

I have heard on the grapevine that now you are standing down @YRS is taking your place...please confirm so that I can decide whether to throw my money on the fire instead! :-)

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I have heard on the grapevine that now you are standing down @YRS is taking your place...please confirm so that I can decide whether to throw my money on the fire instead! :-)

Just BRILLIANT ...brilliant!

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Can't do anything about that other than mitigate risk or don't play (which has it's own risks!)

This is exactly how I feel about it, and have no plans to `choke` early by selling and exacerbating my losses...from my limited understanding that is the cardinal sin, and where most end up losing.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

26 minutes ago, Harley said:

S&P hourly.

Thud, fill the gap, bye bye....

 

@HarleyAre ya SHORTING?

 

I dug out my old IG spread betting ACC card details today, and thinking about depositing some moolah to short the rallies, HOWEVER ...when ya think about it, if i'm about to start SHORTING...then maybe we are near the Market BOTTOM!

 

BTW, our sainsburys stock bleeped up 0.5% today, maybe cos i bought a circular saw that was on special offer for 30 quid!

 

[leonardratso]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker you are gartman and i claim my £5.

You used to be able to set your watch to how wrong gartmans calls used to be.

However, when he retired last year, he had the biggest laugh with his parting shot;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-05/in-parting-shot-dennis-gartman-tells-investors-to-get-into-cash

 

[NogintheNog]

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

6 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

Ha ha ha ha.....

 

This market is way too volatile for short term trading. That is quite the swing. GDXJ is up 25% from it’s low.

You are certainly right there.....

 

[Barnsey]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

If I had bought then and not later I would now be an understandable 13% down rather than the far higher figure I am.  I'm going to wallow in this failure until it hurts so much I (hopefully) never do it again.  There will be other new lessons to relearn but hopefully not this one.  That's how to play this game: no BS, just give yourself up, take the beasting, learn, and move on.

Likewise, due to being far too heavy on precious metals I’m 32% down now, but I keep looking at this and thinking we really are living through one of the most extreme market moments going back over almost 100 years. Little did I expect it to spiral so soon, thought stimulus would prop things up for a while longer.
 

Hard to see the forest for the trees at times like these but deep down I know that what I own were bought at levels reasonable for my risk reward and vs historic prices, gone beyond the point of feeling bad about it because things have just blown up so quickly and ferociously. Highly surreal moment for all of us.

[Shamone]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,and its all setting in play for the reflation cycle to come.The falls are roughly where i expected in most of my targets,some past,some more to go.I have no idea how far we will over shoot etc,but once im positioned il go back to fishing,walking,astronomy,building camps with my grand children and spend one hour a week reading any results from companies,re-investing dividends etc.

My road maps prepared me for the falls to come and helped me side step the initial big hits.You then face into buying ,you accept the pain.I bought the last of my oilies today,potash finished,telcos mostly complete,and im looking at around 14% down on them at this stage on sectors down 60% to 80%.

I really feel for a lot of sectors here,good companies getting destroyed.

The first share i ever bought Imperial Brands (when it was owned by Hanson Trust) is leading the charge higher ,maybe everyone has decided to go back on the Lambert and Butlers while stuck at home 

Cool. Gives a bit of perspective, doesn’t it?

[Barnsey]

Two thoughts before I hit the hay, VIX closed at record high (sheesh), and isn’t it unbelievable we’re seeing all these MMT measures being touted/implemented in the next few weeks that I thought wouldn’t be seen for at least a couple years. 

[Shamone]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Well I've looked back at some of my trades into some buy and hold income accounts and I'm the one at fault.  I've mainly made the big losseses where I failed to adhere to my system.  I was just too keen to invest and ignored the system I have to ladder in.  Take BWY for example.  I was buying after 8 Jul 19 while it was on it's rise from its last buy signal then.  I had no business doing that regardless of my eagerness or the attractiveness of the div after a bit of a pull back.  I should have known far better, no ifs, not buts.  The fact was I had missed the boat not buying back on 8 Jul 19.  I should have sat on my hands or moved on.  If I had bought then and not later I would now be an understandable 13% down rather than the far higher figure I am.  I'm going to wallow in this failure until it hurts so much I (hopefully) never do it again.  There will be other new lessons to relearn but hopefully not this one.  That's how to play this game: no BS, just give yourself up, take the beasting, learn, and move on.

We’ve all done similar things. Hindsight is so 20/20.

[Bobthebuilder]

37 minutes ago, Simon said:

Cool. Gives a bit of perspective, doesn’t it?

Yep, Orion, what a bunch of madness that is, wonderful.

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Boon said:

Anyone buying today?

We ended upmwith more XOM/EQNR/BP/RDSB/AUY/NGD/PAAS than we started it.

12 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Guys the FTSE is now within 8% of it's total GFC crash ... in three weeks. I know a panic when I see one. I'm not saying it won't go lower, I'm certain that the current FTSE valuation is not based on a reasonable pricing in of virus effects, but panic. There is blood on the streets for sure now, it's been a while

It's a panic to me.Well with reference to the sectors we're trading in gold/oil.Normally sane people are flapping like young crows about to leave the nest

I spent the morning working on our buying program-mainly the big oils now-but couldn't help marvel at some of the 40% moves from the open in KGC,GFI etc

11 hours ago, kibuc said:

My wife just told me to sell everything.

Which means the rebound must be nigh. But hey, someone has to sell at the bottom.

Mrs P is a pretty good timing mechanism too.We're making plans for our internement which pretty much guarantees it won't be needed

14 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Two thoughts before I hit the hay, VIX closed at record high (sheesh), and isn’t it unbelievable we’re seeing all these MMT measures being touted/implemented in the next few weeks that I thought wouldn’t be seen for at least a couple years. 

I think there's some more selling yet.Interesting to see a lot of goldies ramp up today.Thye're going to destroy the dollar

[Agent ZigZag]

2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Doesn't anyone have a sense of humour ?

Or do you think I could be right 

 

I do have a sense of humour you dont because yo are a knobhead

[UnconventionalWisdom]

4 hours ago, kibuc said:

My former portfolio is 35% up since I sold it today at the open. As I said, someone has to sell at the bottom. Alexco @1.02, Fortuna @2.05 etc., you get the picture.

There's a good chance the next thing she says will be along the lines "oh, it's going up now, we should buy back" and then I might say some words or do some things.

I know it's our money and we should have equal say in what we do with it, but maybe it'd be reasonable to appreciate that one of us has been following the markets for 16 years, whereas the other one... has not.

Anyway, rant over. At least I didn't listen to her 100% and sold our SIPP with a few hours' delay.

Humans have animal instincts and values losses more than gains. If you dont fear the losses as it's just part of the parcel, you can achieve more gains. I think the same is true of life. So many people don't get out of bad  jobs because they fear what they could lose as opposed to focussing on what they could gain by moving on.

[Agent ZigZag]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,i have plenty of cash,but iv bought everything that hit ladders and only a few remain to be bought mostly German chemical companies,odd ladders in a few Telcos like Telia,not interested now in prices ,il likely not even log in much apart from to re-invest and withdraw dividends.Everything i own i think will be much higher by 2027 including a few ten baggers,apart from odd ones that might go under.Can turn now,or go down another 30%.Iv been here many times in the past its part of investing.Brutal for sure,and a very different one this time due to governments going crazy trying to shut everything.FTSE could go to 4000 of course,and its up to an individual what they can tolerate.

I think im about 14% down on a portfolio where the companies are down between 50% and 90% from highs.Thats all my work can do,it cant say if everything goes to zero,i also sold my whole portfolio in 17 with the full intention to re-invest in the chosen areas as the market collapsed.Thats exactly what has happened,and exactly what i wanted to happen.

Basf added today. and that was the last share I bought. In 6 years cash now,  and will have to see how the market pans out and will adjust accordingly

[DurhamBorn]

 

23 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Two thoughts before I hit the hay, VIX closed at record high (sheesh), and isn’t it unbelievable we’re seeing all these MMT measures being touted/implemented in the next few weeks that I thought wouldn’t be seen for at least a couple years. 

They go big or no economy.No choice.CBs will print direct into the economy,i expect we will see governments backstop every industry.France mentioned tonight no company would go under.Not sure how they will do it,but its certain.They cant just say dont go to the pub and do nothing.There will be some form of insurance,maybe to provide working capital that all companies can access.Thats the key providing ticking over working capital.The CBs might offer to issue bonds to any company that asks 0% coupon paid back over 20 years.This debt deflation was always going to end up here one way or another.If governments do that then they can face the virus down then.Of course it means inflation down the line.Then as the virus ends expect massive spending so every big economy can become self reliant again.One huge thing to come out of this will be the west facing China down.The US might even en-circle them in naval assets.Trump said tonight it was nobody's fault apart from China's

Governments have pissed around for decades,but ends of cycles are where the state machine kicks in.CBs will backstop a massive fiscal move.They probably have a few days to act.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Basf added today. and that was the last share I bought. In 6 years cash now,  and will have to see how the market pans out and will adjust accordingly

Funny enough i bought some today.Those Solvay SA and Evonik.Ladders left in all of them yet.

[Agent ZigZag]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Funny enough i bought some today.Those Solvay SA and Evonik.Ladders left in all of them yet.

Chemical and Aluminium big final play for me. Hoping Hargreaves settle my loses and my final 3 months salary and new tax year ISA will allow me to red depoly to this area. Might although reluctant is to sell some gold for GDXJ for a short term play. 

[BearyBear]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Likewise, due to being far too heavy on precious metals I’m 32% down now, but I keep looking at this and thinking we really are living through one of the most extreme market moments going back over almost 100 years. Little did I expect it to spiral so soon, thought stimulus would prop things up for a while longer.
 

Hard to see the forest for the trees at times like these but deep down I know that what I own were bought at levels reasonable for my risk reward and vs historic prices, gone beyond the point of feeling bad about it because things have just blown up so quickly and ferociously. Highly surreal moment for all of us.

3 years of gains = 3 weeks of drops... Trump must be very, very angry!

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telefonica.com/en/web/press-office/-/operators-advise-a-rational-and-responsible-use-of-telecommunication-networks-to-cope-with-traffic-increases

Data use exploding on the Telco's networks.Might not be extra revenue of course because most will be under contracts.ITV might even sign up a lot of Yanks for Britbox so they can binge on Dr Who.

BT last week also reached record traffic at 17.5 terabits due to an update to Red Dead Redemption,new Call of Duty and the Champions League matches.

 

[leonardratso]

just made a final adjustment to my pension at work, 80% cash, 20% the shitty world tracker.

I await a big tick down then reverse it.

I think im the only one who does it, i mentioned it to someone else and they said 'i dont want to look, its probably a train wreck', i absolutely hate that kind of attitude, do something about it, dont just sit around thinkin it will be all ok cos it wont if you are not proactive with it.

[Talking Monkey]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

We ended upmwith more XOM/EQNR/BP/RDSB/AUY/NGD/PAAS than we started it.

It's a panic to me.Well with reference to the sectors we're trading in gold/oil.Normally sane people are flapping like young crows about to leave the nest

I spent the morning working on our buying program-mainly the big oils now-but couldn't help marvel at some of the 40% moves from the open in KGC,GFI etc

Mrs P is a pretty good timing mechanism too.We're making plans for our internement which pretty much guarantees it won't be needed

I think there's some more selling yet.Interesting to see a lot of goldies ramp up today.Thye're going to destroy the dollar

At some point would you expect a strong dollar again SP, previously on here we expected a weaker dollar then a turn stronger as everyone raced to the dollar