Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Straingone said:

Brave decision to assume you could stretch demand to that price. Would it not be better to price above cost and current market price, clear stock and go again?

Silver coins are not perishable 

BB just said he could have some at the new price in a month. Probably when they have sourced some at the new lower price.

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Silver coins are not perishable 

BB just said he could have some at the new price in a month. Probably when they have sourced some at the new lower price.

GoldCore will have 100oz SilverBars from next week for storage only, 18% premium. I think it used to be lower but I'm not 100% sure.... 1000oz bars have just 5% premium

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

GoldCore will have 100oz SilverBars from next week for storage only, 18% premium. I think it used to be lower but I'm not 100% sure.... 1000oz bars have just 5% premium

I think they’ve doubled their premiums

[Straingone]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Silver coins are not perishable 

BB just said he could have some at the new price in a month. Probably when they have sourced some at the new lower price.

Spot price never went above £15 in 2017. Not sure if this is a particularly collectable coin but experience tells me that when you go to sell at bbp the only concerns are the weight, purity and current spot price. Not sure how a professional dealer could have bought stock anywhere close to the current asking price of these coins.

Regarding the disclaimer of locking in prices for future delivery, does anyone know how watertight this is? What is there to stop bbp not honouring the 'locked in' sale price, couldn't find anything on the website?

I would like to buy some coins but the long lead time is putting me off.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

DB, yes MBS is toast, a walking definition of a 'spoilt brat' (MajorPain has described many ME princes and rulers as such).

Do you still think that oil stocks will make 500% gains (I believe that's what you recently said) by 2027 (toward end of next cycle). Is that figure stock price growth and dividend income combined, or stock price only? Only I am suffering here watching the charts and it would be nice to hear some comforting news to look forward to, even if It means having to wait patiently for 7 years! 

(wasn't 7 years the typical term for indentured slaves? or am I just catastrophizing)  

You need to give DB a break.Being honest,shares can go up as well as down.It's part of the risk/reward of it all.Like the rest of us who share our opinions,it's always DYOR and you shoudl only risk what you can afford to lose.

Sorry if that sounds patronizing but loading up on him your dissapointment isn't particualrly fair.

[deathfunk]

I just called NS&I to withdraw some money and I asked them if they were experiencing a run. He said they were fielding more requests for "ins and outs" than usual.

Is Europe toast?

[NogintheNog]

On 18/03/2020 at 18:26, Harley said:

Ta but I was asking how you set a price such as £8.55.

TBH I didn't have a spreadsheet, £8.55 was a 10% drop from £9.50, that was a drop from the £10.50 ish mark, which was a drop from £11.75ish etc. I set an alert and then depending on my fear factor I buy or wait another 10% out! So the ladder is not necessary where I will buy.

On 18/03/2020 at 17:17, reformed nice guy said:

I do a similar mechanism. 

10-15% drops, using the "law of round numbers". What I mean is that at certain levels there is often a sharper drop ie if 10% took a share to 105 then I would set my ladder at 100.

 

Like he said...

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Big falls tomorrow, just because it'll be lock down day

[NogintheNog]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

BOE starting to  monetize now.£200 billion,i expect government is going to spend about that into the economy.Likely we get more from the government soon.BOE creating reserves and buying gilts as government issues them.They say other paper as well,but likely mostly gilts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/bank-of-england-announces-further-rate-cut-and-launches-new-bond-buying-program.html

A near 50% increase, scary but suspect far more to come

[Loki]

1 minute ago, NogintheNog said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/bank-of-england-announces-further-rate-cut-and-launches-new-bond-buying-program.html

A near 50% increase, scary but suspect far more to come

It's what we want isn't it? Mad but true

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Big falls tomorrow, just because it'll be lock down day

Nearly bought some more RDSB today and held off thinking the same. It's bound to drop again

[NogintheNog]

Just now, Loki said:

It's what we want isn't it? Mad but true

Yeah, we need our investments re inflated

[BearyBear]

Uber +38%, Tesla +20% lol, are they going to bail them out..?

[No One]

I made a thread abuout my investments, it anyone one would like to pop in and comment/advise

[DoINeedOne]

Americans virus number will probably explode in the coming days and cause everything to drop again, not having access to funds till April may be a blessing 

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Shell has been buying back a lot of shares the last couple of days.They can borrow at 2% to save 15% dividend payout,right move as their assets will easily outpace interest rate increases in the cycle

May seem like an obvious question but how can you tell by looking at the company share buying...all I see is board members I.e CEO, Chairman etc...are their purchases actually buy-backs?...I assumed it was for their private portfolios.

[No One]

The fuckers lowered to 0.1 percent 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, No One said:

The fuckers lowered to 0.1 percent 

And stole another 200bn

[No One]

Incredible 

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, headrow said:

I see New River Reit came out today and suspended the dividend payments , using the 17m to provide a cash buffer.

I expect all these real estate investment companies to do the same. I hold quite a few NRR and am quite happy with what they have reported today , going to double up when we get another brutal down day.

Sharecast News) - NewRiver updated the market on the impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic on its business on Thursday, saying its focus was on managing cash resources "very carefully" and maintaining liquidity.
The FTSE 250 real estate investment trust said it had ?72m of unrestricted cash reserves and ?45m of undrawn revolving credit facilities, giving available liquidity of ?117m.

It said it benefitted from a wholly unsecured balance sheet, with no bank refinancing events due before August 2023, and the company's ?300m corporate bond not due for repayment until 2028.

The board explained that, consistent with its focus on cash preservation and liquidity, it had decided not to pay a fourth quarter dividend, preserving ?17m of cash.

It said it would update shareholders on dividends at the time of its full-year results.

The firm said it was also taking a "prudent approach" to preserving cash flow and reducing operational costs.

Those measures included the suspension of all non-essential capital expenditure projects, which would improve cash flow over the next 12 months by ?24m, and the suspension of business rates and marketing in its shopping centres and its pubs, which would improve cash flow by a further ?4m.

"NewRiver remains a financially sound business with significant covenant headroom and a capital structure that is well placed to absorb a prolonged period of uncertainty," the board said in its statement.

"NewRiver's retail portfolio of shopping centres and retail parks represents more than 70% of our total portfolio valuation and net property income.

"These assets are typically anchored by major food and grocery brands and serve the everyday shopping needs of their local communities."

The company noted that it still had no department store exposure and "very limited" fashion and casual dining exposure.

"Our 723 wet led pubs are typically community based, local pubs providing an important social purpose with little or no dependency on food."

NewRiver's board said it would return to a consistent programme of dividend payments as quickly as possible, but that could only be done on the return to normalised trading conditions.

"The board considers this to be the most prudent course of action until the impact of Covid-19 becomes clearer."

So a great approach if you are a growth investor but not so if its for an income investor...is it fair to say that cyclicals are better for growth investors and those reliant on a consistent income should only buy defensive stocks?

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, headrow said:

Loads of profit warnings given this morning , i expect 2 quarters of this. Looks like a drop of at least 20% every time a company reports. It's quite noticeable too ,  that the shares that rallied the most when Boris got elected in December are the ones getting battered now. I was worried about missing the bottom , this is no a longer a worry to me , i think we will be bouncing around down there for at least 2 probably 3 quarters.

Q. Do companies give pw announcements in a periodic fashio, and if so is there a website that provide the announcement dates for companies?

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, BearyBear said:

I haven't used them but they seem legit. Keep in mind that for physical silver you need a substantial price increase to break even... unfortunately they don't show us buyback price but I think it will be well below spot...

Edit: Wow, I just can't keep up with what's happening! Poor journalists... they must be working 24h a day now.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200319b.htm

March 19, 2020

Federal Reserve announces the establishment of temporary U.S. dollar liquidity arrangements with other central banks

For release at 9:00 a.m. EDT

• Share

 

The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced the establishment of temporary U.S. dollar liquidity arrangements (swap lines) with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Danmarks Nationalbank (Denmark), the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Norges Bank (Norway), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and the Sveriges Riksbank (Sweden). These facilities, like those already established between the Federal Reserve and other central banks, are designed to help lessen strains in global U.S. dollar funding markets, thereby mitigating the effects of these strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses, both domestically and abroad.

These new facilities will support the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity in amounts up to $60 billion each for the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and the Sveriges Riksbank and $30 billion each for the Danmarks Nationalbank, the Norges Bank, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. These U.S. dollar liquidity arrangements will be in place for at least six months.

The Federal Reserve also has standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank.

For media inquiries, call 202-452-2955.

Can you explain in a nutshell what this means please.

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Castlevania said:

How do you seal a letter if you can’t lick it?

Well I have a few at work who could oblige, but they prefer arses to envelopes! :-)

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

I saw that price move and thought that was pretty juvenile of Mr Market if so.

They never do!  Mr Market makes money from this and the other key retail timing points.

So does this mean that the day before the new ISA years starts is a buyers potential `sweet` spot?.. serious Q. 

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So a great approach if you are a growth investor but not so if its for an income investor...is it fair to say that cyclicals are better for growth investors and those reliant on a consistent income should only buy defensive stocks?

You would shoot the CEO if he didnt do that.Its crucial they keep all the cash in the business.Their overheads are staff and interest costs,the rest goes as dividends.Their debt is unsecured so they only have the coupons to worry about.They also dont know who might default on rent,though most of their tenants wont as they are the likes of B+M,Sainsbury etc.

Even when fully invested i always keep 3 years money in cash as its very important if living off dividends as you might have to take a dividend holiday.

[Bricks & Mortar]

A morsel of historical support for the idea this may not be the big deflation, and it may be still to come, after the pandemic money-printing wears off.  How the Fed fought the Spanish Flu.  Mike Maloneys daily broadcast. 
Watch from  8:00 to 10:10

Well, that was my first thought anyway.   More I think about it, I think it's Mike just putting a contemporary slant on things.  I think there was much more than a pandemic going on - demobilising from ww1, for instance.