Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

33 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What if you’ve been sent home from work and forgot to take some sellotape on the way out?

i panic steal it by the carton of 5, ive got 80 years worth in the shed.

just need someone to burn the shed down now to scupper my miserly ways.

[JMD]

On 18/03/2020 at 10:26, Democorruptcy said:

I'm hoping when they roll out the antibodies blood test, it turns out a lot of people have already had it. Including me!

Democorruptcy, is that true what you say about you having had CV19? Have you been tested? Only I was under the weather last month ...hmm

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

Democorruptcy, is that true what you say about you having had CV19? Have you been tested? Only I was under the weather last month ...hmm

There are two strains. I'm almost convinced the weaker strain did the rounds here late last year. Maybe it was the weaker strain appeared first, by whatever means, and was then amped up, by mutation or whatever means.

 

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, JMD said:

Democorruptcy, is that true what you say about you having had CV19? Have you been tested? Only I was under the weather last month ...hmm

No I haven't been tested. They are working on a test to look for CV19 antibodies in people. Obviously those that are known to have had it, like that super spreader should have some. However I'm just hoping it was here before we realised and others have already had it. That's pure hopeful speculation on my part but I know so many people who had their worst flu this winter it's made me wonder.

[Democorruptcy]

47 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

Hope the prices stay low for the new isa year in 2.5 weeks! 

Very good etiquette, not wishing them to drop a lot lower. 

BoE cut from 0.25% to 0.1%

[janch]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

No I haven't been tested. They are working on a test to look for CV19 antibodies in people. Obviously those that are known to have had it, like that super spreader should have some. However I'm just hoping it was here before we realised and others have already had it. That's pure hopeful speculation on my part but I know so many people who had their worst flu this winter it's made me wonder.

I've been saying for weeks I've already had it.  I spent Christmas with a hacking cough and fever.  It was different from any flu I've had before.  I was also sneezing and snotty so not sure.  I would be one of the first to volunteer for antibody testing though.

All this panic and the media whipping us up into a frenzy is more to do with the financial system IMHO plus it has the added benefits of stopping the riots in Hongkong and the gilets jaunes in France.  An even bigger bonus is the loss of greenhouse gases and pollution (even if only temporary) which helps the climate change agenda.

[DurhamBorn]

BOE starting to  monetize now.£200 billion,i expect government is going to spend about that into the economy.Likely we get more from the government soon.BOE creating reserves and buying gilts as government issues them.They say other paper as well,but likely mostly gilts.

[BearyBear]

Goldcore ran out of both silver bars and silver coins  Out of curiosity I've emailed them and they said they can source 100oz bars but NOT the coins.

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

BOE starting to  monetize now.£200 billion,i expect government is going to spend about that into the economy.Likely we get more from the government soon.BOE creating reserves and buying gilts as government issues them.They say other paper as well,but likely mostly gilts.

Letters

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873870/170320.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873869/5E737B0D.pdf

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Goldcore ran out of both silver bars and silver coins  Out of curiosity I've emailed them and they said they can source 100oz bars but NOT the coins.

No CGT on Britannias

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

Goldcore ran out of both silver bars and silver coins  Out of curiosity I've emailed them and they said they can source 100oz bars but NOT the coins.

It should be 100g, I presume? 100oz is one hell of a bar!

 

Edit: oh sorry, it's silver

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

I'm not entirely sure why, by Harmony (and Sibanye too, although for much clearer reasons) are getting their teeth kicked in.

Interesting .Sibanye was the one that got away on me.We got in at 2-60 but then they raced away,picked up a little extra at $5 but at these prices we might get our full allocation in.HMY we reached FA the other day.Shame,as I think they're compelling here.Must sya with prices this cheap in the tier 2/3s ,means hard times for our littlies.

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

The issue of dividend withholding tax (unless you hold them in a recognised retirement account) puts me off US dividend payers. A 30% hair cut on dividends is a lot. I do have some Exxon in my SIPP. 

Yeah,it hurts but given how heavily we've ended up in big oil,we need to spread our risk so we don't get Centricaed

[JMD]

On 18/03/2020 at 14:08, sancho panza said:

On a personal level the insanity of govt policy will make this crisis much worse than it needs to be.

Baby Panza who's two got sent home from nursery with a 'persistent cough' with a 14 day ban.It means I'll be off work for most of the next two weeks(Paramedic).The fundamental problem is that she hasn't got a persistent cough.I phoned the GP and discussed the issues,he said that without a temperature over 38 degrees,she's acutally not ticking any boxes for Covid as she's systemically very well.

Long story short,you have non clinicians taking clinical decisions on self isolation which will only make the disaster much worse than it needs to be.The vulnerable pts will still end up in hospital,possibly being treated by asymptomatic Covid carriers(NHS workers are not being routinely tested),virtually guaranteeing a higher mortality rate.Non vulnerable pts who could remain economically active and support tax revenues are being held back from work due to poor clinical decisons from non clinicians working from poor public health guidelines ie they need to define what a persistent cough is if they're asking people to self isolate on the basis of it.(The GP said more than a week but said there was no effective definition)

And all the reaction thus far has been based on the practices of other countires with poor testing regimes.There's a distinct possibility that the infection rate doesn't reach 30% let alone 50%.

 

Edit to add: based on my experience today people could be off work for months self isolating without actually having the disease.The least they should be doing is testing people who are self isolating.

SP, how do you account for this apparent anti-testing regime? Why the 'resistance' by authorities not to test? Isn't it just basic medicine to get test results and not to make assumptions? I don't do conspiracy but lets just say that I find the whole spectre of this virus spooky!

[BearyBear]

12 minutes ago, kibuc said:

It should be 100g, I presume? 100oz is one hell of a bar!

Not 100g, they only sell 100oz or even 1000oz

https://www.goldcore.co.uk/our-products/silver-bars

but this is for storage only.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

Exactly this SP I probably will end up overweight to a large degree to oil and use the dividends to buy other sectors, and heavy mostly against BP and Shell rather than others

It's as per @Castlevania point,there are things you can do to mitigate the divi hit.I'm jsut sat here living in fear of confirmation bias but as this moves on I believe oil/gas will turn first then the other smay stil be yet to bottom.At these prices,if our oilies bets succeed,my retirement has moved forward a good few years.All the trades planned to get us a certain amount of divi income may not be needed.

[Democorruptcy]

Bond market margin calls

Could it be China unloading? Are we seeing the perfect war?

 

[sancho panza]

 

25 minutes ago, janch said:

I've been saying for weeks I've already had it.  I spent Christmas with a hacking cough and fever.  It was different from any flu I've had before.  I was also sneezing and snotty so not sure.  I would be one of the first to volunteer for antibody testing though.

All this panic and the media whipping us up into a frenzy is more to do with the financial system IMHO plus it has the added benefits of stopping the riots in Hongkong and the gilets jaunes in France.  An even bigger bonus is the loss of greenhouse gases and pollution (even if only temporary) which helps the climate change agenda.

Beth Rigby on Sky News was asking the PM something to the tune of

'people in London have balantantly been flouting govt advice on soical distancing by going to pubs and using public transport,when are you going to start taking a harder line'

Which I thought was an interesting line for a jorunalist to take.(I believe she was a big Remainer iirc) given how hgihly the Press value their freedoms.

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

SP, how do you account for this apparent anti-testing regime? Why the 'resistance' by authorities not to test? Isn't it just basic medicine to get test results and not to make assumptions? I don't do conspiracy but lets just say that I find the whole spectre of this virus spooky!

It's a lack of capacity/testing kits etc.Simpelst solution.Thye will gear up but it will take time.I'm now off work,Junior P ahs a temperature and I'm off for 14 days.I hope the govt knows what it's doing.

Like you I've been surprised by some elements of some govts response to the crisis,not least the hard line taken by the French which conveniently got rid of the gilets jaunes.

[Sasquatch]

38 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Very good etiquette, not wishing them to drop a lot lower. 

BoE cut from 0.25% to 0.1%

Much more of this and HSBC will be paying me interest for the privilege of having a mortgage with them. 

That would definitely be premier division weird.

[Sasquatch]

By the way I bought some gold sovereigns at a general auction yesterday at below the market rate. Two of them were mint proof sovereigns in boxes! Totally mad.

[AQUAMAN]

5 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Much more of this and HSBC will be paying me interest for the privilege of having a mortgage with them. 

That would definitely be premier division weird.

Would banks ever do that?

[deathfunk]

Would anyone mind filling me in regarding the current state of the PM markets. I see gold is actually down this month. Are the CBs and giant squid manipulating it? I have to say I am very tempted to buy some physical right now. Just how far could it be manipulated downwards given all fiat will be toilet paper in a few years?

 

[Sasquatch]

4 minutes ago, AQUAMAN said:

Would banks ever do that?

I suspect no. I think some people had base rate minus 1% trackers in 2008 and theoretically ended up at -0.5%. However, the banks just charged 0% at the time. 

We have a lifetime tracker at 1.49% over base. Interest payments are now minuscule.

[JMD]

23 hours ago, Harley said:

I think the important thing is to assume/accept this is not just about CV.  Many other issues out there needing an end game/resolution.   This could be by design (not wasting a crisis) or because the virus (and cascade effect from other impacted things) stresses many weaknesses to breaking point.  That's at both a financial, social and political level.   Collateral damage and cascade effects are common characteristics. 

PS: I'm not even sure money (or "value") will be seen in quite the same way going forward.  I wrote about this a few months ago.  Time to start dusting down the Wealth of Nations and other such treaties.  We could be going back to an era of discovery as in the 1600's.  I mean this at an intellectual (but also ensuing practical) level, not some cheap prepper, sensationalist, message board, etc level.

PPS: Working from home, outside of the construct of the "office", etc - so now maybe we'll start seeing who and what has really been adding value all this time and what the nature of that value really is?  Invest and act accordingly?

Hope your right Harley, there have certainly been lots of whacky social (antisocial?) ideas expressed in recent years that have merely served to divide people, not to mention the cynical economic theories of recent decades - all these destructive 'ideas' now need to be extinguished/expunged/exorcised...  

btw, saw your earlier post commenting on Coininvest, are buying silver?

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, AQUAMAN said:

Would banks ever do that?

Danish bank did -0.5% mortgage in 2019

[AQUAMAN]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Danish bank did -0.5% mortgage in 2019

They didn't

The actual rate you paid always close to 1% or more