Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[BearyBear]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Danish bank did -0.5% mortgage in 2019

Yes, but I don't think it was actually paying you money. You had to pay a yearly arrangement fee or something like that.

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, AQUAMAN said:

They didn't

The actual rate you paid always close to 1% or more

I'm sure I'm posted a link before but lost it so cannot check the detail.

So it was -0.5% but with a stipulation 1.5% above base rate as a minimum?

[Loki]

Just had a thought.  If they manage to jolt the economy back to life (for now) what are the odds of this virus suddenly going away as quickly as it appeared?

 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It wont be forgot,they have signed their death warrant,100% certain.In the recovery cycle its likely they will be shut out,giving oil an even bigger leg up.

The key here,however hard is to focus ahead.We knew this was coming,positioning isnt a science,we will end up under shooting on the oilies,might have to go into a turn down 20%ish maybe even 30% if it continues,but that will prove nothing once oil turns.There will be volatile movements even after a turn.We will of avoided 2/3s of the falls though,that would be a very good result.

After this though the world will reflate,everyone chasing the same resources.The reflation will be epic.

DB, yes MBS is toast, a walking definition of a 'spoilt brat' (MajorPain has described many ME princes and rulers as such).

Do you still think that oil stocks will make 500% gains (I believe that's what you recently said) by 2027 (toward end of next cycle). Is that figure stock price growth and dividend income combined, or stock price only? Only I am suffering here watching the charts and it would be nice to hear some comforting news to look forward to, even if It means having to wait patiently for 7 years! 

(wasn't 7 years the typical term for indentured slaves? or am I just catastrophizing)  

[TheCountOfNowhere]

23 minutes ago, Loki said:

Just had a thought.  If they manage to jolt the economy stock market and house bubble back to life (for now) what are the odds of this virus suddenly going away as quickly as it appeared?

 

 

I thought 2007/2012 was mad, but they've eclipsed that in a week

[deathfunk]

 But why have PMs taken a dive the last few weeks? Surely the opposite should have occurred. Fiat looks weak across the board.

Is it manipulation? Are the big boys building their positions now?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, billfunk said:

 But why have PMs taken a dive the last few weeks? Surely the opposite should have occurred. Fiat looks weak across the board.

Is it manipulation? Are the big boys building their positions now?

Cant get silver coins.

EX GS chancellor and look what happens.

Mental. Totally and utterly mental.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, JMD said:

DB, yes MBS is toast, a walking definition of a 'spoilt brat' (MajorPain has described many ME princes and rulers as such).

Do you still think that oil stocks will make 500% gains (I believe that's what you recently said) by 2027 (toward end of next cycle). Is that figure stock price growth and dividend income combined, or stock price only? Only I am suffering here watching the charts and it would be nice to hear some comforting news to look forward to, even if It means having to wait patently for 7 years!  (wasn't that the typical term for indentured slaves?)  

I expect 500% in the big ones including dividends,best to let the cycle play out.

[Majorpain]

7 minutes ago, billfunk said:

 But why have PMs taken a dive the last few weeks? Surely the opposite should have occurred. Fiat looks weak across the board.

Is it manipulation? Are the big boys building their positions now?

Margin calls and Europe buying every $ they can get their hands on.

[BearyBear]

Denmark's Central Bank raises Interest Rate..!

from -0.75 to -0.60%

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, billfunk said:

Would anyone mind filling me in regarding the current state of the PM markets. I see gold is actually down this month. Are the CBs and giant squid manipulating it? I have to say I am very tempted to buy some physical right now. Just how far could it be manipulated downwards given all fiat will be toilet paper in a few years?

Some guys are liquidating anything they can including PMs just to get US dollars. Can't see a CB manipulating Gold price..? Maybe some big traders doing funny things, yes that's possible, but CBs? They seem to be very busy printing currency day & night.

I'd like to have some physical too, but Gold especially in Pounds is not that cheap, Silver is, but you won't get the 1oz coins at the moment unless you overpay.

[Straingone]

25 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Cant get silver coins.

EX GS chancellor and look what happens.

Mental. Totally and utterly mental.

 

 

There are the only two types available for delivery on bullionbypost. Other type  similarly priced.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

8 minutes ago, Straingone said:

There are the only two types available for delivery on bullionbypost. Other type  similarly priced.

 

Whats's that 3x the price 

[BearyBear]

This is the cheapest 1oz coin you can buy on Coinivest for delivery in 20 days

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/lunar-series-uk/1-oz-lunar-uk-year-of-the-pig-silver-coin-2019/

£16.25.... 60% over the spot price

[TheCountOfNowhere]

25 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Denmark's Central Bank raises Interest Rate..!

from -0.75 to -0.60%

[Straingone]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Whats's that 3x the price 

 

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

This is the cheapest 1oz coin you can buy on Coinivest for delivery in 20 days

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/lunar-series-uk/1-oz-lunar-uk-year-of-the-pig-silver-coin-2019/

£16.25.... 60% over the spot price

Something not quite right here, cant put my finger on it.

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Whats's that 3x the price 

Yep, that's crazy! They want to capitalise on the demand, that's it. I bet the silver coins market is very shallow, it doesn't take much to create imbalances.

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

This is the cheapest 1oz coin you can buy on Coinivest for delivery in 20 days

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/lunar-series-uk/1-oz-lunar-uk-year-of-the-pig-silver-coin-2019/

£16.25.... 60% over the spot price

How much did they pay for them or can get them for now? 

Sterling going down the shitter playing a part?

[Straingone]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

How much did they pay for them or can get them for now? 

Sterling going down the shitter playing a part?

Been nearly the same price since everything became unavailable for delivery. Disclaimer mentions restrictions on delivery service being to blame. Can't be anything to with the fact they can't get them surely?

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Straingone said:

Been nearly the same price since everything became unavailable for delivery. Disclaimer mentions restrictions on delivery service being to blame. Can't be anything to with the fact they can't get them surely?

Well if I'd bought a load of stock at say £18 and the price dropped to £12. I'd put the out of stock sign up while price went back up. What would you do, sell it at a huge loss?

[BearyBear]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

How much did they pay for them or can get them for now? 

Sterling going down the shitter playing a part?

Looks like you can't get them now but for this price they will ship you these in a month. Yes, GBPUSD drop is obviously affecting the price.

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, AQUAMAN said:

Would banks ever do that?

I've got a base rate tracker. I think there's a clause in the T&C's that says that the base rate used will never be less than Zero. Don't recall how it's worded. 

Typical though my mortgage term expired recently and I've been delaying the final settlement to keep the balance as a hedge in the event a scenario like we're experiencing now came about. Mind you if I'd known I'd have sold some equities instead of watching them plummet.

[Straingone]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well if I'd bought a load of stock at say £18 and the price dropped to £12. I'd put the out of stock sign up while price went back up. What would you do, sell it at a huge loss?

Brave decision to assume you could stretch demand to that price. Would it not be better to price above cost and current market price, clear stock and go again?

[BearyBear]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well if I'd bought a load of stock at say £18 and the price dropped to £12. I'd put the out of stock sign up while price went back up. What would you do, sell it at a huge loss?

We never know how much they've paid but your logic makes sense. I think most of the time they won't sell that many coins so they keep their stock low, just in case the price drops. It's for the first time in 12 years that people rushed to buy silver.

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

Yes, but I don't think it was actually paying you money. You had to pay a yearly arrangement fee or something like that.

I saw an article on it. You pay agreed installments every month but the principle is reduced by a greater amount.