Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

You start to think to yourself have i already had this thing,was it all over the UK by then but not picked up.Who knows.It could be half the population has already had it.

I have had that thought and more people i know are saying the same thing. 

[King of Fools]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

I have had that thought and more people i know are saying the same thing. 

I am absolutely convinced I had it, starting December 28th. 4 days fever, persistent cough, 3 weeks off work. That can’t be normal flu can it?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just learned my stock brokers wife is taking a job to help with the school frees 

Ive said for a while they were levered up debt junkies but one never really knows 

[Errol]

11 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Just learned my stock brokers wife is taking a job to help with the school frees 

Ive said for a while they were levered up debt junkies but one never really knows 

School fees are seriously expensive though. Top Public Schools now run at something like £15,000 per term!

So you need £45,000 free cash just to pay for one child - for one year.

[spunko]

33 minutes ago, Panda said:

Cheers

So wait a little longer.

It's probably the worst time in about 20 years to invest in shares if you don't know what you're doing IMO.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, spunko said:

It's probably the worst time in about 20 years to invest in shares if you don't know what you're doing IMO.

Yes, just wait and get them on the way up in a few months 

[Alifelessbinary]

If you are itching to invest at the very least cost average into the market. This is the wildest of rides. 

Also diversification is key. While a concentrated portfolio can make you very rich it can also make you very poor.

At the very least read this and preferably most of the site!

https://monevator.com/asset-allocation-types/

[Alifelessbinary]

DB thanks for the response. 

It looks like several of the train operating companies are also going to go bust, as they work on relatively thin margins around 3-4%.

I note that the government is holding back the Williams report reviewing the future of the railways and this is likely to see large parts of passenger train operators renationalised.

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I don't think it's the big Kahuna right now.  If the Fed don't get hold of it toot soonish, it will be.

I think, for David Hunters thesis to be correct, the Fed would print just enough to take the S&P somewhere near his 4000 level.  At that point, the inflation caused by all this printed cash chasing a reduced amount of goods in the real economy, coupled with the helicopter cash running out, would drag everything into a proper Big Kahuna.
I still like the theory.  But, given the Fed seems completely clueless as to how much to print, the S&P4000 call looks very uncertain to me. 

David Hunter had a few good calls but he completely ignored the CV impact, just like a lot of people did. How can the stock market go 80% up if most people are (or soon will) sitting at home doing nothing? Is the FED going to ask us to buy shares with the helicopter money or what...? Even if they buy bankrupt companies like Boeing or Delta, what's the difference..?

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

....

.More will die through that i expect than the virus in the end.

deja-vu, i just said that to the mrs about 2 hours ago. For a lot of people - and you see in retirement - as soon as they stop working they pop their clogs real quick, either through lack of activity or loss of purpose.

 

 

[Barnsey]

Lest we forget the tragic loss of life through suicide in such times of economic distress

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

David Hunter had a few good calls but he completely ignored the CV impact, just like a lot of people did. How can the stock market go 80% up if most people are (or soon will) sitting at home doing nothing? Is the FED going to ask us to buy shares with the helicopter money or what...? Even if they buy bankrupt companies like Boeing or Delta, what's the difference..?

It is highly unlikely like you say as this looks like the deflationary bust we were going to get.The interesting part is the government loans for business.If this had been a normal crash that wouldnt of happened in time,so there is a chance that keeps companies going until the Fed gets its printing right sized.David is right though that the Fed have been beyond terrible this cycle.Its school boy stuff that they need to get ahead of the curve.The $ is screaming at them yet they are messing about.Powell is way out of his depth.The first thing is to flood $s into the capital markets.Its the same every recession,they faff about scared they do too much,then have to do 5 x more than they needed to because they were late.Ones things certain,every day they delay means extra trillions to come.Systemic risk is upon them,yet they arent even buying corporate debt yet.The ECB is as bad.It could be we get a massive coordinated effort tomorrow from them all.

Powell,if he doesnt act pretty much ensures collapse,WW3 and starvation for tens of millions.Instead he is worried about infation if they print and a cure comes the day after.Inflation of 10%pa or systemic collapse,thats the choice,

[Bricks & Mortar]

30 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

David Hunter had a few good calls but he completely ignored the CV impact, just like a lot of people did. How can the stock market go 80% up if most people are (or soon will) sitting at home doing nothing? Is the FED going to ask us to buy shares with the helicopter money or what...? Even if they buy bankrupt companies like Boeing or Delta, what's the difference..?

That's a very fair comment.  My thinking relies on the Fed and other central banks being able to come up with a package that ensures these businesses remain viable, in mothballs, waiting for this thing to be over.
Obviously the Fed are aiming for that.  But since they don't seem to know their arse from their elbow, the only way they could would be to overshoot a little.
Payments to the businesses to replace free cash flow, pick up the employee wages for the duration, and a little something extra to keep their mouths shut.

Edit to Add.  I'm defending the possibility.  I do accept your theory is the more likely outcome.

 

[DurhamBorn]

In other news today BAT Tobacco had a capital day and said Covid-19 was having no affect on them  ,my favourite stock of all time.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

That's a very fair comment.  My thinking relies on the Fed and other central banks being able to come up with a package that ensures these businesses remain viable, in mothballs, waiting for this thing to be over.
Obviously the Fed are aiming for that.  But since they don't seem to know their arse from their elbow, the only way they could would be to overshoot a little.
Payments to the businesses to replace free cash flow, pick up the employee wages for the duration, and a little something extra to keep their mouths shut.

Edit to Add.  I'm defending the possibility.  I do accept your theory is the more likely outcome.

 

If Powell doesnt act (and the ECB) then they are making sure millions starve,WW3 is very likely,and western power is destroyed and replaced by China.Powell is a lawyer.Incredible situation.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Not being critical but some genuine confusion: I'm confused on testing.  How long is the result good for?  Up to the point you have the test?  You could go out and catch the virus the next second after the test?  Even from the tester?  And how much good is it to know (medics, etc accepted)?  And worse cleared people subsequently infected could start running around thinking they're "fine".

I think there's some genuine confusion on a lot of things.Public Health England are basically saying either a) persistent cough and or b) fever are the crucial symptoms. Speaking to the GP today,without a fever,he's not even interested.

Ref testing,the test would be good to the time of the test,You could catch it straight away thereafter.I'm unsure how long after contact with the virus you test positive.

In terms of analysing the spread of the disease,thorough testing is crucial but not currently possilbe.The NHS has quite simply no idea how many people may have already had the disease which is one of the reasons I have little faith in any of the projections being thrown at the general public,particularly with regard to the mortality rate where,from what I can see,they may as well be using a dart board if there's no decent testing programme.

At the end of the day,some quite extreme measures are being justified by the modelling the Govt are using.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

I think there's some genuine confusion on a lot of things.Public Health England are basically saying either a) persistent cough and or b) fever are the crucial symptoms. Speaking to the GP today,without a fever,he's not even interested.

Ref testing,the test would be good to the time of the test,You could catch it straight away thereafter.I'm unsure how long after contact with the virus you test positive.

In terms of analysing the spread of the disease,thorough testing is crucial but not currently possilbe.The NHS has quite simply no idea how many people may have already had the disease which is one of the reasons I have little faith in any of the projections being thrown at the general public.

Do you think a lot of us might of had it in Dec and Jan/Feb without it being picked up?,my partner was really ill and i was worried,i felt terrible for 4 days,but no cough,probs flu,but makes you start to think,

[BearyBear]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

If Powell doesnt act (and the ECB) then they are making sure millions starve,WW3 is very likely,and western power is destroyed and replaced by China.Powell is a lawyer.Incredible situation.

Isn't Lagarde a lawyer too..?

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

I think the important thing is to assume/accept this is not just about CV.  Many other issues out there needing an end game/resolution.   This could be by design (not wasting a crisis) or because the virus (and cascade effect from other impacted things) stresses many weaknesses to breaking point.  That's at both a financial, social and political level.   Collateral damage and cascade effects are common characteristics. 

 

I quite agree.On a lot of different levels H.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Isn't Lagarde a lawyer too..?

yep ,insane isnt it.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Do you think a lot of us might of had it in Dec and Jan/Feb without it being picked up?,my partner was really ill and i was worried,i felt terrible for 4 days,but no cough,probs flu,but makes you start to think,

Ive had messages from mates in jobs like train drivers, they are all tested and have all had it, im sure a lot of us have as well.

[sleepwello'nights]

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Ive had messages from mates in jobs like train drivers, they are all tested and have all had it, im sure a lot of us have as well.

NHS staff say they are not being tested. Why would they make testing train drivers a higher priority?  

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

NHS staff say they are not being tested. Why would they make testing train drivers a higher priority?  

Not sure, maybe something to do with driving a vehicle and being able to read stop signals with a thousand people on board maybe?

[Bricks & Mortar]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think there's some genuine confusion on a lot of things.Public Health England are basically saying either a) persistent cough and or b) fever are the crucial symptoms. Speaking to the GP today,without a fever,he's not even interested.

Yeah.  I had something the other week.  Had a GP appointment for HBP, but telephoned to say I had a sore throat, and thought I shouldn't pass it to the whole waiting room.  GP gave me a telephon appt.  Gave GP the home tested BP numbers, and she asked a lot of questions about my sore throat.  Did I have a fever, Yes.  Cough - Yes.  Difficulty breathing, - a bit tight maybe.  Anything else?  Well, the BP pills gave me the runs, and the cold thing has a runny nose.
Runny nose?  Def. not Covid 19 then, she pronounced.
This from the German Health ministry:  "A coronavirus infection causes flu-like symptoms such as dry cough, fever, a runny nose and fatigue. There have also been reports of difficulties breathing, an itchy throat, headaches, joint pains, nausea, diarrhoea and shivering.
https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/en/press/2020/coronavirus.html

[leonardratso]

coronanus