Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It might do, when a really serious virus hits

I'm hoping when they roll out the antibodies blood test, it turns out a lot of people have already had it. Including me!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm hoping when they roll out the antibodies blood test, it turns out a lot of people have already had it. Including me!

Im not convinced I didnt have in in Feb.

If this turns out to be a damp squid and we only get a 2/4 week shutdown, pile in I say :-) 

[Cosmic]

4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Im not convinced I didnt have in in Feb.

If this turns out to be a damp squid and we only get a 2/4 week shutdown, pile in I say :-) 

Squib.

 

I also had some weird shit in Feb, felt different to a normal cold. I got a lot better when I said fuckit and just walked home in the freezing cold regardless.

[AQUAMAN]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The higher the unemployment the more they print the higher the inflation.I expect we might see western governments paying peoples wages.The macro picture said $20 trillion was needed to stop the collapse when it came,we have seen around 20% of that,much more to come.Governments have the excuse now to do whatever they want and CBs will print whatever they need.Can you imagine the demands once this is over to "bring stuff home",

Markets arent linear,they are already starting to look for the winners,Telcos are doing very well now,Telefonica is up nearly 30%,Telia similar.Transports poor,but pockets in there,Royal Mail for instance are up nearly 30% from bottom.Once the spending taps are fully turned on oil will turn,the question now isnt about being down in a stock,its  about can it get through to the reflation.The problem the governments have is retail and pubs and transport etc.Massive employment there,i expect a lot more action to come.Dont rule out direct payment of wages NI stopped,council tax holiday.The PM said yesterday "we are in a war situation".They are.

They are in the middle of an epoch defining deflation,that means unlimited printing.Government debt means nothing at this point,it will be monetized.Plus everyone is in the same boat so they can print at will knowing their currencies wont collapse,that is yet and against each other,when the dust settles and the money supply has trebled,but there is the same amount of real assets,the assets will reset to the money supply.Oil will be $200+ by 2027,silver $150+,

The virus has been the event to end the cycle,but it ending was certain as they always are.Just as certain is the reflation ahead.By 2026 it will be like the roaring 20s,people will be loving life,and of course come 2028,2029 they will get what the roaring 20s got at the end.A depression.

If oil gets to $200 why won’t housing also go to the moon?

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Dow Futures Dive as Bloomberg Leaks Mnuchin’s 20% Unemployment Fear

 

OMGF!!!!!!!!!!!

The US wil be like ....... France.

If it carries on unemployment will hit ~30% - like Spain.

If it gets even worse itll be like Greece.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, AQUAMAN said:

If oil gets to $200 why won’t housing also go to the moon?

Disposable

1 hour ago, NogintheNog said:

It's no surprise yesterdays announcements of government 'loans' have not calmed the markets. I'm sure many businesses will take these loans but you still have to pay it back! then go bust!

Thats what they've been doing on FC.

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On 03/03/2020 at 17:35, SillyBilly said:

Bought just shy of £27k worth of oilies this week, my largest share is now Shell which I really like - will chuck a few more quid in if it goes down further, almost hope it does. I fancy it all day long at these prices. My business (chemical firm) buys lots of crude derivatives and so setting myself up for a nice hedge. Crude goes down further with more virus shenanigans my margins go up a few % in the business, crude goes up then my shares in the oilies go up on a personal level.

 

 

 

Please tell me you're breaking even ?

[BearyBear]

Meanwhile GBPUSD is approaching its multi decades low...  

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, AQUAMAN said:

If oil gets to $200 why won’t housing also go to the moon?

Because interest rates will be 10%,and the cost of living very high.This cycle turn is about where resources will be allocated by the economy.Instead of BTL being financed it will be massive social house building.Pendulums swing too far in cycles,then return too far the other way.I would expect southern house lose 70% inflation adjusted,northern maybe 20%.If i was buying in the north id buy now or within 12 months and fix those rates for 10 years.South id hold off for a couple of years.

 

Just now, BearyBear said:

Meanwhile GBPUSD is approaching its multi decades low...  

Fed is behind the curve by massive amounts,dollar will fall once Fed gets close to right sized printing.World needs $s,and fast.

[kibuc]

Recently, SilverCrest raised a whole lot of cash, issuing 9,100,000 shares at price of $8.25 per share. Now, one of the buyers, the National Bank Financial, wants to terminate the deal based on a "disaster" clause.

Which would be reasonble I guess, if not for the fact that they've only signed the agreement a week ago, on the 11th of March, with "disaster" already in full bloom. SilverCrest will be taking legal action.

Probably not the last event of that type to occur in the coming weeks.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The higher the unemployment the more they print the higher the inflation.I expect we might see western governments paying peoples wages.The macro picture said $20 trillion was needed to stop the collapse when it came,we have seen around 20% of that,much more to come.Governments have the excuse now to do whatever they want and CBs will print whatever they need.Can you imagine the demands once this is over to "bring stuff home",

Markets arent linear,they are already starting to look for the winners,Telcos are doing very well now,Telefonica is up nearly 30%,Telia similar.Transports poor,but pockets in there,Royal Mail for instance are up nearly 30% from bottom.Once the spending taps are fully turned on oil will turn,the question now isnt about being down in a stock,its  about can it get through to the reflation.The problem the governments have is retail and pubs and transport etc.Massive employment there,i expect a lot more action to come.Dont rule out direct payment of wages NI stopped,council tax holiday.The PM said yesterday "we are in a war situation".They are.

They are in the middle of an epoch defining deflation,that means unlimited printing.Government debt means nothing at this point,it will be monetized.Plus everyone is in the same boat so they can print at will knowing their currencies wont collapse,that is yet and against each other,when the dust settles and the money supply has trebled,but there is the same amount of real assets,the assets will reset to the money supply.Oil will be $200+ by 2027,silver $150+,

The virus has been the event to end the cycle,but it ending was certain as they always are.Just as certain is the reflation ahead.By 2026 it will be like the roaring 20s,people will be loving life,and of course come 2028,2029 they will get what the roaring 20s got at the end.A depression.

Based on what the Fed are doing would you expect the dollar to weaken in the near term as its current strength is exacerbating the stresses in the global economy, is the current strength more a function of the Fed not having done enough yet, or is it more a fundamental run to the dollar as safehaven

[Noallegiance]

58 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Squib.

 

I also had some weird shit in Feb, felt different to a normal cold. I got a lot better when I said fuckit and just walked home in the freezing cold regardless.

I was KOd for three days in Feb. Done and dusted. Heavy, though.

Usually I get stuff like that for 2-4 weeks.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm hoping when they roll out the antibodies blood test, it turns out a lot of people have already had it. Including me!

If that happens before the vaccine... you go straight to a well-paying employer and offer your services for, maybe 5 times the normal rate.  The regular staff haven't worked more than 3 days in a row since this kicked off.

[BearyBear]

WTI below $25... almost 10% drop...! This is not good for the stock market.

[SillyBilly]

2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Please tell me you're breaking even ?

Me or the business? Personally, nowhere near. I have bought quite a bit more but am still about 25% down across everything I have bought recently as of last night (not checked today) which is substantial. I am not in the slightest bit concerned about that though, in my 30s and don't intend to sell these shares, bought for dividends, expect to hold them until I am dead.

On a business level I am in chemicals, my business buys about 300 tonnes bulk of solvents/hydrocarbon derivatives a month  (white spirit, xylene, C10 aromatics etc.) so swings and roundabouts. Short term the business far outweighs a paper loss on the personal level by a few multiples. Albeit the concern now is a collapsing order book. Margins may be good but if you don';t have any orders...

Edit: just seen the markets tanking again today so expect to be massively in the red now.

[No One]

1 minute ago, SillyBilly said:

Me or the business? Personally, nowhere near. I have bought quite a bit more but am still about 25% down across everything I have bought recently as of last night (not checked today) which is substantial. I am not in the slightest bit concerned about that though, in my 30s and don't intend to sell these shares, bought for dividends, expect to hold them until I am dead.

On a business level I am in chemicals, my business buys about 300 tonnes bulk of solvents/hydrocarbon derivatives a month  (white spirit, xylene, C10 aromatics etc.) so swings and roundabouts. Short term the business far outweighs a paper loss on the personal level by a few multiples. Albeit the concern now is a collapsing order book. Margins may be good but if you don';t have any orders...

What shares ?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, SillyBilly said:

Me or the business? Personally, nowhere near. I have bought quite a bit more but am still about 25% down across everything I have bought recently as of last night (not checked today) which is substantial. I am not in the slightest bit concerned about that though, in my 30s and don't intend to sell these shares, bought for dividends, expect to hold them until I am dead.

Same here.

I did buy some shell today but if it bounces 10% tomorrow I'll sell. I dont think it's near the bottom yet but it's a long way down from my last trenche

Biggest loser for me is stagecoach, 65% down.  Ouch.

Reinflate that!!

[SillyBilly]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Same here.

I did buy some shell today but if it bounces 10% tomorrow I'll sell. I dont think it's near the bottom yet but it's a long way down from my last trenche

Biggest loser for me is stagecoach, 65% down.  Ouch.

Reinflate that!!

I can't put anymore in Shell as too many eggs in one basket otherwise. I will be 40% down in them now I guess, down another 7% today.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

12 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I can't put anymore in Shell as too many eggs in one basket otherwise. I will be 40% down in them now I guess, down another 7% today.

I put a bit in Vodafone too, mainly before it is holding up remarkably well.

Cue the Vodafone collapse.

[kibuc]

Have I mentiond that my wife decided we should buy back yesterday afternoon? This is beyond hilarious. Fortuna @3.33 (having sold @2.10 on Monday), Alexco @1.59 (having sold @1.02 on Monday) and so on, and so on.

Oh well, who needs money, at least we have each other 

[Loki]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

South id hold off for a couple of years.

A glimmer of hope! I'll be closer to 40 than 30 but what's a couple years after 12 years waiting for some semblance of sanity in the market

[TNS]

boom!

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-bank-of-england-considers-printing-money-for-households-133206965.html

 

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, TheNickos said:

boom!

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-bank-of-england-considers-printing-money-for-households-133206965.html

 

Can't wait for my Helicopter Money  Imagine people queuing at banks with theirs £1000 cheques...

[reformed nice guy]

Chevron at $62.50, bargain! Next ladder set for $55

Hoping Microsoft gets to $80, Mastercard to $120 and Visa to $90 so I can get my first ladders in them soon

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think the loans like you say the commercial paper are stage one.That will be unlimited and in the end monetized.It says paper for up to a year,so it suggests its for working capital more than offloading long term debt.However i expect that will change and be simply rolled over each year.

They need to also inject direct liquidity.That is next.It could take a few forms,first direct to consumer,could be council tax scrapped,then direct into employers not to finish people.Could be they scrap employers NI,or even off to pay ways for 6 months in certain sectors.

I thought we would get a trillion in the UK,we have a third of that,the macro position is they need another £700 billion to turn things,US similar,they need between $12 and $18 trillion.

I was actually very impressed with Rishi Sunak,i think he actually gets it,unlike most.Future PM i expect,but he needs to take more action.

History won't be kind to the politcal lass of the last fifteen years.But that's no recompense for the ordianry people who've been hammered by the miscalculation of inflation/depression of domestic wages/pro HPI policy etc etc.

One of the hardest things I've had to learn over those years is to follow what they do not what they should do.Reality is that a defaltionary event was needed fro the printing-most on this htread have concurred with that-and there seems little doubt the corona virus will create a deflationary event of some sort/scale.

 

Quite whether they can right the ship here I'm not sure.On a clinical level,the govt response seems reasonable compared to some but completely undermined by the poverty of the testing regime(NHS workers like myself should be getting tested regularly otherwise we're going to be ground zero of the super spreaders to vulnerable patients).I'm not a conspiracy theorist normally but the reaction in general of govts like Spain/Italy/France hints more of panic than well thought through policy.

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nobody loses it,it has been deflated over the cycle already.They are simply printing what the economy was crying out for the last 15 years.I agree there is moral hazard,but those arguments are for when life is normal,not when your facing the destruction of the western way of life.Government exists for times like this.

I expect the people to pay longer term though will be people who over paid for shoe boxes as rates increase later and BTL.They will see rising rates,falling demand over the cycle.

The days of cheap CHinese imports are numbered,possibly also the days of cheap oil/food.Time's are a changing.

2 hours ago, AQUAMAN said:

If oil gets to $200 why won’t housing also go to the moon?

What you've got left after food n fuel goes on shelter

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

Recently, SilverCrest raised a whole lot of cash, issuing 9,100,000 shares at price of $8.25 per share. Now, one of the buyers, the National Bank Financial, wants to terminate the deal based on a "disaster" clause.

Which would be reasonble I guess, if not for the fact that they've only signed the agreement a week ago, on the 11th of March, with "disaster" already in full bloom. SilverCrest will be taking legal action.

Probably not the last event of that type to occur in the coming weeks.

K you got a view on a new dollar high in Gold this year?I think it's inbound but interested on your take if you have one.

41 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

WTI below $25... almost 10% drop...! This is not good for the stock market.

Another $10 and we're at $15.......spooky.