Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Shaw Communications

Maybe I need to ease up on my criteria, but I missed this one given the Quick Ratio (below 1) and the high Debt to Equity Ratio (although below average for the industry).  However, interesting how cash from operations is far higher than reported income, although the cash flow statement for 2019 shows a CAD1bn increase in debt.  The sort of company I would need to delve into the financial statements to get a proper handle on.  Do you screen fundamentals for companies?

[sancho panza]

On 09/07/2020 at 11:43, kibuc said:

28 shares  Respect, I find it difficult to keep up with my 8.

My problem with silver miners atm is that they ones running up the most are already hugely overvalued. I cannot see myself buying Frist Majestic, for instance, when its peers are trading and much lower multiples. But those low-valuation peers are lagging behind, while FR keeps going higher and higher... Massively frustrating.

In goldies at least I can see some of the producers who were laughably cheap putting up some good gains. HMY is still hugely undervalued and so is Fiore. I might even hold my nose and take a punt at Great Panther. Marginal miners are poised for a big move at rising prices.

I don't know much about copper. It's that thing that you put on the roof and it turns green, ain't it?

Ours is a spray n pray operation on the PM miners.I learned early on that Mark twain wasn't far worng ('A gold mine is a hole with a liar at the top') and realised how out of my depth I was.Hence the spread of shares.Conversely in the oil sector,where we have significantly more invested,we only hold 10 stocks currently,as I got out of a lot of smaller ones in early Feb iirc.

To be fair,I don't monitor them much,particualrly as over time,the portfolio has got skewed towards the larger caps/tier 2's and therefore throws up less shocks.

Like you,I find the silver miners expensive in general over the past few years(no idea why they are) and have thus steered us into gold much more.Having said that we have a decent holding in Fres/Hoc which didn't seem to follow their Can/US counterparts higher.

Over the last few months I've started looking at silver more as I've noticed the discrepancy in running timesCurrently lined up as follows-based on intial invesment size

line 1-KGC,ABX,FRES,AU,NCM,BVN,NGD(the latter two are the big win plays)

line 2 SAND,OGC,OR,GFI

Line 3 AGI,SIB,RIO2,EGO

Line 4 IAM,AXU,GORO,ITR,HMY,AUY

Line 5 RSGR,B2G,MAI

Line 6 POG,IPT,

 

On 09/07/2020 at 13:33, Cattle Prod said:

I think Canada (along with Iran and Venezuela) will be one of the few large countries with oil production growth remaining. There is one catch though: most of it is in Alberta, Alberta is landlocked, and prices are utterly shite. If you go there and talk to them, they (a) can't stand the Ottawa goverment, for milking them, and blocking pipelines to the east (so much so there is a nascent secession movement!), and (b) think that the yanks have been blocking exports south to support the US shale industry. I expect these blockages to be released pretty quickly, once the reality that the US shale patch has blown its wad sink in. Pipelines are already getting approved. There will be a lag though. How to pick winners in all that though? No idea. There is time yet to profile Canadian producers, I'd want to see more export routes first. To answer your question, I don't think any Canadian supply will be lost, they've been operating with very low prices (not WTI up there, look at WCS) for years. Here is some of 2018:

You asked my question in bold and answered it as well

Thanks for the informed reply.I was unaware of the WCS and the pricing they've been living with for some time.

Whenever I see these posts about struggling oilfields,I wonder what Exxon will be running their slide rule over.

Shurely all this chaos must see some consolidfation as companies are bought out of amdinistration?

 

edit to add CP,some big oilies are as cheap as when oil was sub $25????

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-invests-1b-fuels-joint-182223271.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACfg272qL5scD6q7hrdjgI6rp9jwfpd76YwoA2B3aTLI3tojbqIOIBxWtCDm2Gm_knLGIAHNrThXTovfO92RxtlGKO5WcoJoi9tYe6bixvwruOz2GHaIM5u8Oxlr5FRqVjBTPrNe7TiPMA9S-R0j5VILctQGGJ0R3SfzuWW4iwEw

Good move from BP.Obvious the focus on Green energy is is mainly for headlines and they still intend to sell their oil.India will be a very fast growing market over the cycle.I was getting a bit worried about the leadership,but this deal says to me they are playing to the gallery and still intend to keep big cash flow from oil.

Cheers for psoting DB.Like you say,looks a shrewd move.Like you say,reassures that the leadership are in touch with the real world.

'India is expected to be the fastest-growing fuels market in the world over the next 20 years, with the number of passenger cars in the country estimated to grow almost six-fold over the period.

Meanwhile, five-star analyst Sam Margolin at Wolfe Research last month raised BP’s rating to Buy from Hold with a price target of $31, up from $29, saying that the company has "a credible pathway" to deleveraging and dividend coverage in 2021.

Overall, Wall Street analysts share Margolin's bullish outlook on the stock. The Strong Buy consensus shows 3 Buy ratings versus 1 Hold rating. The $29.67 average price target implies a 34% gain in the shares over the coming 12 months.'

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, kibuc said:

I'm seeing some very encouraging production numbers from some of the miners on my radar. Fiore obviously, as already reported. Eldorado with big, big Q2 production and solid increase Q/Q and YoY. Even managed to stay flat YoY in the one mine that was shut down for 3 weeks due to lockdown. Great Panther (ugh! yuck!) with strong increase in gold and AuEq production, even though silver production from locked-down Mexico tanked as expected by 2/3rds. Even Endeavour Silver, massively affected by Mexico closures, "only" took a 44% hit YoY thanks to big stockpiles getting processed.

 

On a separate note, what does the group think about Adriatic Metals? I used to think of them as a base metals explorer and didn't pay much attention, but when I look at them through a precious metals lens, silver in particular, then they look... quite cheap?

Adriatic metals has been pushed by pamplona trader iirc.He's always struck me as one of the more honesdt players in the space but beyond that I knwo little.Having siad that I've jsut had a butchers and their main ops are in Serbia.These days I've steered us to more stable geo political places for PM mienrs if possible.

Pamplona Trader had some encouraging posts on EGO a week or two back.

 

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Boon said:

RDSB falling again - could be back to £10 hopefully.

What are people's opinions on gold and silver? Take profits or keep adding? I am probably getting close to 10% of portfolio in there now.

is Hold an option.That's where we are.

[sancho panza]

 

Potential good news for the yellow stuff.Mankind less so.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2020/07/10/the-us-is-near-to-joining-the-ever-growing-world-of-negative-interest-rates/

The US is near to joining the ever growing world of negative interest-rates 

Posted on July 10, 2020

3

Sometimes a piece of news comes with a splash of deja vu or if you prefer groundhog day. I had that sort of feeling last night when I noted via a tweet from John Authers who used to write The Long View at the Financial Times that the US five-year bond yield had fallen to a new low of 0.28 %. My immediate thought was is it going negative too? We have seen this happen in the Euro area with Germany the leader of the pack. More recently we have seen it in my home country the UK where both the two-year and five-year bond or Gilt yields have been negative for several weeks now. That is really rather extraordinary in the UK’s case but we know that these events are accompanied by a litany of official and media denials.

Comment

I have left out the economic outlook until now so let me bring it into play.

ew York Fed Staff Nowcast
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -15.1% for 2020:Q2 and 10.4% for 2020:Q3.
News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2020:Q2 by 1.2 percentage points and increased the nowcast for 2020:Q3 by 8.9 percentage points.

This week’s pandemic news means they seem set to subtract some of the expected growth for Q3. Thus not only has the outlook turned down it remains extremely volatile. Ordinarily I would say that would make bonds more attractive but of course that relied on them having a yield which these days is fast disappearing.

Another source of demand comes from the US Dollar because the safest place to hold Dollars is in Treasury Bonds. The more uncertain things look the more Aloe Black will be singing ” I need a $ a $ is what I need”

On these roads we see that US Treasury Bond yields are slip-sliding away and the two-year at 0.15% is in the van. In my country  the UK when the final push came it happened quite quickly.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Maybe I need to ease up on my criteria, but I missed this one given the Quick Ratio (below 1) and the high Debt to Equity Ratio (although below average for the industry).  However, interesting how cash from operations is far higher than reported income, although the cash flow statement for 2019 shows a CAD1bn increase in debt.  The sort of company I would need to delve into the financial statements to get a proper handle on.  Do you screen fundamentals for companies?

I dont screen Harley,but i do take a look and need to be as sure as i can be that the company can pay its coupons and also get debt away if needed.Telcos are coming towards the end of a long capex cycle.I expect the whole sector to de-leverage over the cycle and free cash to increase.Shaw is only a tiny holding and will by around 10% of what i have in Vod/Telefonica etc.Telia and Telenor will be around 30% of what i have in the bigger ones.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont screen Harley,but i do take a look and need to be as sure as i can be that the company can pay its coupons and also get debt away if needed.Telcos are coming towards the end of a long capex cycle.I expect the whole sector to de-leverage over the cycle and free cash to increase.Shaw is only a tiny holding and will by around 10% of what i have in Vod/Telefonica etc.Telia and Telenor will be around 30% of what i have in the bigger ones.

Ta, but how, if I may ask, do you pick on something like Shaw if not via a screener?  And Investing.com does not even have it in Telecoms but Broadcasting and Cable TV (FT.com has it in Fixed Line Telecommunications, arrrg)!

PS:  Interesting, DYOR but a reduced confidence buy signal on the daily today, though not on the weekly or monthly yet.  I will watch with interest!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Ta, but how, if I may ask, do you pick on something like Shaw if not via a screener?  And Investing.com does not even have it in Telecoms but Broadcasting and Cable TV (FT.com has it in Fixed Line Telecommunications, arrrg)!

PS:  Interesting, DYOR but a reduced confidence buy signal on the daily today, though not on the weekly or monthly yet.  I will watch with interest!

I do it the old fashioned way.I search every main country for their main telcos.Then go through them all.I think the big US telcos are all fair value so havent bought any.I think most of the rest of the world ranges from good value to superb value.I think the European/UK telcos are the best value for lots of reasons.

Shaw is in cable because its got a big fibre network.It also got a mobile network though that is growing.Canada isnt a huge telco market due to size and geography,but happy to add a few.

[Harley]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I do it the old fashioned way.I search every main country for their main telcos.Then go through them all.I think the big US telcos are all fair value so havent bought any.I think most of the rest of the world ranges from good value to superb value.I think the European/UK telcos are the best value for lots of reasons.

Shaw is in cable because its got a big fibre network.It also got a mobile network though that is growing.Canada isnt a huge telco market due to size and geography,but happy to add a few.

Thanks for the insights.  The mis (or different) classification of companies does my head in!  I would have missed Shaw using Investing.com and got it using FT.com but then FT.com does not have the granular industry segmentation Investing.com has.  What do you use?  Maybe I just need to use both!

PS:  Shaw may have a network but does not seem to do much content so I question the industry assignment.  I scanned their accounts but little in the way of normal segment teporting.  Actually, quite an odd set of accounts to my English eyes.  Maybe a Canadian thing!

[M S E Refugee]

 

[DurhamBorn]

59 minutes ago, Harley said:

Thanks for the insights.  The mis (or different) classification of companies does my head in!  I would have missed Shaw using Investing.com and got it using FT.com but then FT.com does not have the granular industry segmentation Investing.com has.  What do you use?  Maybe I just need to use both!

PS:  Shaw may have a network but does not seem to do much content so I question the industry assignment.  I scanned their accounts but little in the way of normal segment teporting.  Actually, quite an odd set of accounts to my English eyes.  Maybe a Canadian thing!

I tend to use Morningstar,though i also simply use "list of Canadian telecom companies".I had been researching most of my targets for three or more years so im only really adding smaller holdings now.I dont really need to screen at first because im investing in larger companies now mostly.Much easier to find them than smaller ones.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I tend to use Morningstar,though i also simply use "list of Canadian telecom companies".I had been researching most of my targets for three or more years so im only really adding smaller holdings now.I dont really need to screen at first because im investing in larger companies now mostly.Much easier to find them than smaller ones.

Three or more years!  Like so many things, hard work makes things look easy to others!

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Harley said:

Three or more years!  Like so many things, hard work makes things look easy to others!

Indeed.On the telcos i think we have a structurally undervalued situation.The market is pricing them on capex staying the same or growing and connections (service revenue) growing slowly below inflation.I thing that is all wrong.I think Capex will probably fall mostly (some like BT might grow in some areas).Connections will explode.6 billion now,30 billion+ at the end of the 5G cycle.Those extra connections wont provide the same income as the first 6 billion,but can mostly be ran on the edge of networks for little extra capex/opex.The last cycle saw tech monetise most of the internet over the top and telcos missed out.This time i think they will get more of the pie.Google taking 5% in Vodafones India business and companies like Microsoft and Google fighting to partner with Telefonica as can be seen here last month,

https://www.fiercetelecom.com/telecom/move-over-microsoft-google-cloud-ties-into-spain-s-telefonica-for-cloud-and-5g-edge-use

Given these companies would be a struggle to buy out for tech companies due to national governments (Telefonica cant be taken over by act of parliament) they have no choice but to try to partner and force out each other.Telcos have the upper hand for the cycle i think.

[Dogtania]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

I found him somehow a few weeks ago, didn't seem to have many subs or videos but looked interesting.  Found he was actually some bid hedge fund manager back in the day (well not that long ago).  And he has a fair following on other channels.  Also liked his Scottish accent for a change.  I believe he had a run of years of consecutive losses at his flagship so closed down and now lives life of Riley on a Caribbean island.

Anyway was really interesting hearing his meanderings over the two videos (haven't watched the above yet).

One thing he talked about was taking a position in a random Dutch holding? type company when he saw a commodity boom coming up that subsequently became a star multi bagger.

I understand commodity's as raw materials or foods like wheat and coffee.  I briefly looked at the company all those years ago he bet on (Amsterdam commodities) and it seemed to be a collection of companies that dealt in things like peanut butter or spices.

The thing I didn't completely get was that they seemed to be sourcers sellers (or middle men) rather than owning the fields for example.  I assume being in a strong position of expertise infrastructure or contacts that they benefit equally if there is say a commodity boom.

Just trying to frame this in light of this thread... Say these commodities can be thought of as hard assets that will also increase if we do get big inflation (but not like say Tele where the physical towers and infrastructure is already there).

Would love to be corrected and I don't know but I'd assume that as company that relies on the consumer say providing sugar paste to catering company compass would not be in the best position going forward.  Not bad but not leading the pack.

Whereas further up the chain ie supplying the actual cattle feed or fertilizer would be better in the coming environment.  Ie not consumer led but just basic things that will be needed for a large and growing world population.

Anyway glad you highlighted the vid will check out later.

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Found he was actually some bid hedge fund manager back in the day

What Hugh Hendry?  A legend.  I'm not that old am I?

[Dogtania]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

What Hugh Hendry?  A legend.  I'm not that old am I?

Not that long ago! 

Anyway listening to him ramble on with lee scratch Perry in the background endeared me to him

[Harley]

17 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Not that long ago! 

Anyway listening to him ramble on with lee scratch Perry in the background endeared me to him

Well, maybe a minor legend!  He's just resurfaced.  I liked his Real Vision interview with Raoul on YouTube for the hedgie banter.

PS:  WTF, he's now on Macrovoices!

https://www.macrovoices.com/868-macrovoices-227-hugh-hendry-he-s-baaaaack

 

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Well, maybe a minor legend!  He's just resurfaced.  I liked his Real Vision interview with Raoul on YouTube for the hedgie banter.

PS:  WTF, he's now on Macrovoices!

https://www.macrovoices.com/868-macrovoices-227-hugh-hendry-he-s-baaaaack

 

He was very easy to watch.I remember his youtube clips as he explored CHina's empty skyscrapers........gripping......but he was still wrong in an epic fashion,much like Tony Dye way back in the day.

Can't believe it's 7 years since his 'bear turnes bull moment'

His leaving the hedge fund closure shows that a great macro brain doesn't necessarily beget market profits.

https://www.businessinsider.com/hugh-hendry-turns-bullish-2013-11?r=US&IR=T

 

On another matter.Some great graphs from Wolf

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/11/wild-ride-to-nowhere-appl-msft-amzn-goog-and-fb-soar-to-new-high-rest-of-the-stock-market-is-a-dud-has-been-for-years/

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/09/unemployment-claims-hit-new-record-32-9-million-state-federal-week-16-of-u-s-labor-market-collapse/

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/10/the-great-american-shale-oil-gas-massacre-bankruptcies-defaulted-debts-worthless-shares-collapsed-prices-of-oil-and-natural-gas/

 

[jamtomorrow]

24 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

On another matter.Some great graphs from Wolf

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/11/wild-ride-to-nowhere-appl-msft-amzn-goog-and-fb-soar-to-new-high-rest-of-the-stock-market-is-a-dud-has-been-for-years/

This part of the market looks so terrifyingly and exotically broken to me, I'd rather just sit it out until sanity returns. It seems to consist entirely of HFTs front-running retail front-running the Fed, with no discernable price discovery.

ZH posted this for TSLA, would love to see the same for FANGMAN -

 

[jamtomorrow]

33 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/09/unemployment-claims-hit-new-record-32-9-million-state-federal-week-16-of-u-s-labor-market-collapse/

Meanwhile (first one is long and paywalled, so just posting the tasty bits here):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/meatpackers-covid-safety-automation-robots-coronavirus-11594303535

SPRINGDALE, Ark.––Deboning livestock and slicing up chickens has long been hands-on labor. Low-paid workers using knives and saws work on carcasses moving steadily down production lines. It is labor-intensive and dangerous work.

Those factory floors have been especially conducive to spreading coronavirus. In April and May, more than 17,300 meat and poultry processing workers in 29 states were infected and 91 died, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Plant shutdowns reduced U.S. beef and pork production by more than one-third in late April.

Meatpackers in response spent hundreds of millions of dollars on safety equipment such as personal protective gear, thermal scanners and workplace partitions, and they boosted workers’ pay to encourage them to stay on the job.

They also are searching for a longer-term solution. That quest is playing out in a former truck-maintenance shop near the Springdale, Ark., headquarters of meatpacking giant Tyson Foods Inc. There, company engineers and scientists are pushing into robotics, a development the industry has been slow to embrace and has struggled to adopt.

The team, including designers who once worked in the auto industry, are developing an automated deboning system destined to handle some of the roughly 39 million chickens slaughtered, plucked and sliced up each week in Tyson plants.

Tyson, the biggest U.S. meat company by sales, currently relies on about 122,000 employees to churn out about 1 in every 5 pounds of chicken, beef and pork produced in the country. The work at Tyson’s Manufacturing Automation Center, which opened in August 2019, is speeding the shift from human meat cutters to robotic butchers.

Over the past three years, Tyson has invested about $500 million in technology and automation. Chief Executive Noel White said those efforts likely would increase in the aftermath of the pandemic.

 

The Covid-19 pandemic has been a debacle for the $213 billion U.S. meat industry. For the first time in memory for some Americans, there wasn’t enough meat to go around. Reduced production forced grocery giants such as Kroger Co., Costco Wholesale Corp. and Albertsons Cos. to limit how much fresh meat shoppers could buy in some stores. Fast-food chain Wendy’s had to tell customers that some restaurants couldn’t serve hamburgers.

Now automation projects are racing ahead, said Decker Walker, a managing director with Boston Consulting Group, or BCG, who works with meatpackers. “Everybody’s thinking about it, and it’s going to increase,” he said.

Automation has transformed jobs such as car assembly, stock trading and farming. Meat processors, though, employ 3.2 workers per 1,000 square feet of manufacturing space, three times the national average for manufacturers, according to data compiled by BCG. While U.S. manufacturing worker density overall has held steady over the past five years, in meat plants it has increased, according to the firm.

Executives of Tyson and other meat giants, including JBS USA Holdings Inc. and Cargill Inc., say that is because robots can’t yet match humans’ ability to disassemble animal carcasses that subtly differ in size and shape. While some robots, such as automated “back saw” cutters that split hog carcasses along the spinal column, labor alongside humans in plants, the finer cutting, such as trimming fat, for now largely remains in the hands of human workers, many of them immigrants.

...

https://www.sonomamag.com/healdsburg-hotel-first-in-sonoma-county-to-employ-robot-for-room-service/

At recently opened Hotel Trio in Healdsburg, room service is a completely different experience.

You still call and place your order with the front desk, and you still get items delivered to your door. But the employee who brings the order to your room is not human – it’s a robot, aptly named Rosé.

The four foot tall, roving cylinder is the first robot concierge in Sonoma County and has quickly become a celebrity. Rosé draws a crowd as she speeds up and down hallways or rides the elevator, and guests make multiple calls for room service just so that they can interact with the friendly machine. (Hotel Trio doesn’t charge for room service delivery, and Rosé doesn’t wait around for tips.)

“In addition to Rosé being super helpful, people absolutely love her,” says Brooke Ross, director of sales and marketing at Hotel Trio. Ross notes that even non-guests swing by the 122-room hotel to see the robot in action: “We have a beautiful lobby, a really great bar, bocce balls that light up when you play at night, but Rosé is hands down the most frequently photographed feature of our hotel.”

While Rosé is a Sonoma County novelty, the hotel robot trend has been going on for a few years. Hotels across the country are increasingly turning to autonomous robots to handle menial tasks in order to free up staff for more complicated jobs. Robots similar to Rosé are now being employed to deliver room service in Chicago, Las Vegas and Silicon Valley, while other models clean floors, answer questions and perform a variety of duties.

“Ready or not, robots are going to be a part of your hotel experience,” says Henry Harteveldt, travel industry analyst at Atmospheric Research Group in San Francisco. “This is a part of travel that will see major growth in the years ahead.”

[Inigo]

26 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

“Ready or not, robots are going to be a part of your hotel experience,” says Henry Harteveldt, travel industry analyst at Atmospheric Research Group in San Francisco. “This is a part of travel that will see major growth in the years ahead.”

Stayed in an airport hotel with one of those room service robots.  Kids fascinated and so we had to have room service.  New hotel, so other systems in place eg so that it can interact with lifts to get to the right floor.

I'm not sure it is an improvement on a human, or necessarily cheaper.  Seems a gimmick to me.

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

Well, maybe a minor legend!  He's just resurfaced.  I liked his Real Vision interview with Raoul on YouTube for the hedgie banter.

PS:  WTF, he's now on Macrovoices!

https://www.macrovoices.com/868-macrovoices-227-hugh-hendry-he-s-baaaaack

 

Hendry is an Interesting guy, especially his thoughts about US expanding the reserve currency is not the same as printing more money and so inflation is not produced. Is that just another way of saying governments must spend into the real economy?                                                                                                                                                                                 But I do wish he would stop 'hedging'! (old habits... I guess) and just say what he means. For example in macro voices Hendry says US won't get hyperinflation, but 'other regions' will and this will lead to great political change. Is he referring to China?

[jamtomorrow]

23 minutes ago, Inigo said:

Stayed in an airport hotel with one of those room service robots.  Kids fascinated and so we had to have room service.  New hotel, so other systems in place eg so that it can interact with lifts to get to the right floor.

I'm not sure it is an improvement on a human, or necessarily cheaper.  Seems a gimmick to me.

Agree the hospitality story smacks of the gimmick stage.

What's interesting is when this succeeds in penetrating out of "budget" and into "aspirational", where previously there's been no substitute for the personal touch.

"Formule 1" were the ultimate embodiment of automation at the budget end. I swear the one I stayed at in 1998 had one visible member of staff for 100 or so rooms. And of course an army of plumbers and electricians on standby for when one of the plastic shower & sh*t boxes broke down ... again.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Hendry is an Interesting guy, especially his thoughts about US expanding the reserve currency is not the same as printing more money and so inflation is not produced.

I think his (and others) comment about USD being like gold when on the gold standard is interesting.  It's suggested the Great Depression was caused in part by a lack of gold and that today the world has a lack of USD.  The curse of being the global reserve currency.  Maybe this means they either need to print or "get off the pot"!  Printing presumably(?) would lower DXY (no free lunch forever!) but the degree of the domestic inflationary effects are unclear given the US is a bit of a closed economy.