Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

its likely we will see increases,sharp pull backs,then on to higher levels,over and over.Its likely nobody will believe the rally is sustainable and most people will miss out on the gains.

Are you talking about the next few months or into the cycle as a whole? 

I've forgotten how much you agree with DH's parabolic melt-up forecast

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 .....its not easy losing a years salary a day...

Balls 

Of 

Steel 

Sir 

I wish I had a year's salary to lose in the first place!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

38 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Mmm this is the quandry I am in i.e. when to top slice...some of mine are between 60-100%...do I top slice or hold out for longer?...my thoughts are as follows:

1. If there is nothing else to buy at the moment whats the point of having the extra cash sitting there doing nothing?

2. Although up a fair chunk these have been bought pretty low and are still way below pre-Covid prices, so is it better holding out for the longer term?...I am aware from reading that this is often the downfall of many i.e. selling too early.

3. Could I be missing a selling at the peak opportunity where I could buy in again once they drop?

I find it a lot easier knowing when to buy than when to sell 9nice problem to have I know!)...whats the wisdom on this?

 

YOU forgot number: 4

 

4. Ask for YRS advice?

 

AND if it all goes pear-shape... you can be safe in the knowledge that ya'll have a lot of fun sorting YRS out with a BASEBALL BAT!!!

[Loki]

56 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Mmm this is the quandry I am in i.e. when to top slice...some of mine are between 60-100%...do I top slice or hold out for longer?...my thoughts are as follows:

1. If there is nothing else to buy at the moment whats the point of having the extra cash sitting there doing nothing?

2. Although up a fair chunk these have been bought pretty low and are still way below pre-Covid prices, so is it better holding out for the longer term?...I am aware from reading that this is often the downfall of many i.e. selling too early.

3. Could I be missing a selling at the peak opportunity where I could buy in again once they drop?

I find it a lot easier knowing when to buy than when to sell 9nice problem to have I know!)...whats the wisdom on this?

I sold AFC yesterday at a profit (at last!) but I consider things like BP, RDSB, Repsol, SSE, NG, K & S and Anglo American for example as core positions in a reflation portfolio so will only add to them on drops.

Not saying that's right, it's just what I want to do until at least 2028.  I don't have the brains for finessing my portfolio, so K.I.S.S. 

Edit: The big WHAT IF to the above is if I'll try and time the Big K and sell some just before. 

Other than that, no selling. I'll be buying more or less straight back in to the same positions, anyway

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

No harm in taking a profit is my view, good for you. I sliced and rebalanced a couple of my oilies that were up over 40%.

I am wondering whether I should be doing that, or whether if we expect the price to continue to rise for the next five years, that's just taking money off the table.

 

With GDXJ I timed it very luckily and sold half right at the top (60?) and rotated it into oilies at the lows.  I'm not sure what I'd do with the money from selling part oilies now - apart from wait.

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Are you talking about the next few months or into the cycle as a whole? 

I've forgotten how much you agree with DH's parabolic melt-up forecast

Its interesting that both Hunter and Kaplan both expect a Big Kahuna though where they differ is Hunter expects a meltup first. Thought about top slicing a few things and hold some cash in case the BK arrives, probably top slice the PM miners if I do

[Whowhywhen?]

Where the Ho's at?

[Harley]

Moneyweek interview with new twists on the vakcyne story and talk about winner and loser companies following covydd.....

https://www.spreaker.com/user/11996645/201202-barry-norris

 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Selling is very difficult.My portfolio has made more in a month than anytime i can remember.Its tempting to sell some etc,and i have top sliced and re-allocated over on really strong runs.However if we are right and we are entering a re-flation cycle then its likely we will see increases,sharp pull backs,then on to higher levels,over and over.Its likely nobody will believe the rally is sustainable and most people will miss out on the gains.

I had priced 65% as the return id like over the cycle to equal the inflation i expect.Many stocks are up way over this already.

What should be remembered though is a hell of a lot of work went into portfolio rotation etc this last few years and into positioning.For myself i bought shares in March equal to 65% of my net worth.Buying into the teeth of the storm.I wobbled several times myself,its not easy losing a years salary a day at some points yet sticking to ladders etc.

Its no accident we have cleaned up this last month.We earned it.

To the true warrior, victory or death!  - but hindsight makes it looks so much easier so also after a massive amount of ongoing work I'm a bit late but happily focussed on the East, Russia, source orientated value plays, etc while avoiding the bloatware, and well placed generally with initial ladders to buy those inevitable, yes probably violent, pullbacks.

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, Loki said:

Are you talking about the next few months or into the cycle as a whole? 

I've forgotten how much you agree with DH's parabolic melt-up forecast

I honestly dont know.Im very confident in my road map for the cycle,its playing out superbly actually,and pull backs are certain,the question is how big.I look at my portfolio now and im very very happy with it,the positioning.Needs a few tweaks along the way.Im probably slightly heavy telcos and oil,but very very happy with the price averages paid.Iv actually already sold a lot of things and reallocated.

My worry isnt the companies and sectors im in,its the risk of a huge derivative unwind,dislocation in the bonds markets etc.We could see big selling to cover losses and demands.However there is massive liquidity that will exit bonds at the first signs of inflation,and our sectors are a natural home for a lot of that.Maybe holding all divis and top slicing where thngs run hard would be an approach.However my old friend would be saying to just let the cycle play out,go do something else etc.Very difficult.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

To the true warrior, victory or death!  - but hindsight makes it looks so much easier so also after a massive amount of ongoing work I'm a bit late but happily focussed on the East, Russia, source orientated value plays, etc while avoiding the bloatware, and well placed generally with initial ladders to buy those inevitable, yes probably violent, pullbacks.

I need more exposure to the east Harley,if you have any ideas.I prefer income stocks of course,but any income funds would be fine for exposure.Id like some Russian exposure as well,so any ideas?

[jamtomorrow]

21 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I know a lot respect Lyn Alden and this new post by her as per @erewhon888 's post in the Crypto thread here giving more details on what I think a lot of people are missing in this thread - namely the digital central bank currencies that are coming:

https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

As she says in the intro with emphasis mine...

Some might want to just skip to the following section...

• What the Next System Looks Like
  • Decentralized Energy Pricing
  • Digital Global Bancor
  • Digital Regional Bancors
  • Gold as a Reserve Asset
  • Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset

Thanks for posting @geordie_lurch, I don't think I've ever learnt so much from one (admittedly long) article.

Packed with zingers, favourite quote so far (but still reading!):

As the system frays, it’s easy to point to external nations as the cause of this fraying. When they begin pricing things outside of the dollar-based system, or employing mercantilist currency policies, or building pipelines, or deciding to do something with their dollar surpluses other than reinvest them in US Treasuries, it can seem as though they are undermining an otherwise sound system.

In reality, those external actions are a symptom of the more underlying flaws in the system: the fact that the United States is no longer big enough as a share of global GDP to supply enough dollars to fund global energy markets and global trade, the fact that the United States has to run persistent trade deficits to get dollars out into the system, and the fact that an all-fiat global currency system incentivizes mercantilist currency manipulation by many countries to generate trade surpluses against the US wherever possible.

People often cite the "military-industrial" complex, but the "military-monetary" complex seems much more important in terms of macro understanding

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

YOU forgot number: 4

 

4. Ask for YRS advice?

 

AND if it all goes pear-shape... you can be safe in the knowledge that ya'll have a lot of fun sorting YRS out with a BASEBALL BAT!!!

Yep forgot that one, it should have been No1 on the list :-)...I think DB covers my point though, and all the mad gains we are seeing, are they not just baked in future inflation from the current `printy, printy`?

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Moneyweek interview with new twists on the vakcyne story and talk about winner and loser companies following covydd.....

https://www.spreaker.com/user/11996645/201202-barry-norris

 

The thing is once MW starts talking about winners and losers is it not the equivalent of talking to the shoeshine boy/porter for tips?!

[UnconventionalWisdom]

9 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

YOU forgot number: 4

 

4. Ask for YRS advice?

 

AND if it all goes pear-shape... you can be safe in the knowledge that ya'll have a lot of fun sorting YRS out with a BASEBALL BAT!!!

Or do 4 and then do the opposite😉. I do the same with the MSM's reccommendations.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I need more exposure to the east Harley,if you have any ideas.I prefer income stocks of course,but any income funds would be fine for exposure.Id like some Russian exposure as well,so any ideas?

Loads, my screeners took me there, I could write a book, more to follow when not doing "something else" today!!!!

[Harley]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

...... prefer income stocks....

Me too, or rather I was, but I now buy into a total return approach (value plus min yield of 3%) as that opens up far more financially sound companies (my new rules would not have picked 75% of my previous divi stocks)! 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

The thing is once MW starts talking about winners and losers is it not the equivalent of talking to the shoeshine boy/porter for tips?!

Apologies if you have, but IMO it's worth listening to as that stuff was not the main content and apart from VNV, what was discussed was about sectors rather than specifics. 

[Hardhat]

Not much info here, but I saw this on Reuters and it seemed relevant. Is the real story here that it's a convenient "green" excuse to cancel exploration when the oil price is low?:

ENERGY

DECEMBER 3, 202011:06 PMUPDATED 10 HOURS AGO

Denmark cancels future oil and gas hunt in North Sea

By Reuters Staff

1 MIN READ

COPENHAGEN, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Denmark’s government on Thursday agreed with a majority in Parliament to cancel a planned eighth licensing round in the North Sea as well as any future tenders, the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities said in a statement.

Reporting by Nikolaj Skydsgaard; Editing by Leslie Adler

[Harley]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

so any ideas

The very first step, if not already done, is (IMO, DYOR) to get insomnia and a proper brokerage account.

[reformed nice guy]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I need more exposure to the east Harley,if you have any ideas.I prefer income stocks of course,but any income funds would be fine for exposure.Id like some Russian exposure as well,so any ideas?

I did some digging, but probably not as deep as Harley.

My watchlist at current ladder prices:

Baidu - chintech - 85 usd

Fanuc - Jap robots - 16000 yen

Gazprom - russia gas - 3.5 gbp

JD.com - chintech/chinese amazon - 50 usd

NTT DOCOMO - jap mobiles - 35 usd

Nippon Telegraph - jap comms - 20 usd

Tencent - chintech - 50 usd

TSMC - taiwan chips - 60 usd

A lot of those are near their lowest price this year so you can probably ignore but hopefully it seeds some ideas

[Barnsey]

More on national infrastructure bank

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/12/how-national-infrastructure-bank-could-transform-uk-economy

 

 

[sancho panza]

Intersting to see MZM cross over M1 and then see how far M2 is from CPI index.....................

Ref velocity,worth noting M1 is down 60% since Q2 2008.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/moneyzeromaturity.asp

'For money to be included in MZM it has to be redeemable at par value, which is why money in time-related deposits or certificates of deposits (CDs) are not included in MZM. Economists and central bankers use MZM along with the velocity of MZM to better predict inflation and growth, because, the more funds readily available, the more money there is to spend, which can be a sign of inflationary pressures. '

 

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The real answer is that Denmark has nothing left to hunt. That's why DONG became Orsted years ago. What it has was relatively small and obvious to find. Doesn't stop them greenwashing it though.

This is production, will be shut down entirely in the next few years:

 

You'll notice that their consumption, though declining, is declining at a much lower rate than production. It actually increased in recent years. They became a net oil importer around 5 years ago, so add them to the list of former exporters now importers. Who is selling it to them? Just another drain on world supply, even in sclerotic Europe.

To think, we're just a fringe forum on the outskirts of the known universe, talking nonsense due to ignorance instead of taking things at reported face value - top stuff me lad, top stuff!

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

More on national infrastructure bank

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/12/how-national-infrastructure-bank-could-transform-uk-economy

Good place for some of your pension (and ISA?) money, at least that'll be what you're told when......