Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Hunty said:

BP (NYSE:BP)

Short Interest Data
Current Short Volume: 10,440,000 shares
Previous Short Volume: 6,380,000 shares
Change Vs. Previous Month: +63.64%
Dollar Volume Sold Short: $238.66 million.

During the worst stages of 2020, short volumes were around 25% on BP ADR.

It is currently running double that for the past 4 days. 

They're keep winning till they stop winning.

Nice of them to offer us all some nice cheap stock.

Are you going to tell the Reddit crowd and get them to push it up like Gamestop?

[Loki]

14 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I need a way to invest in the stock market but not be in the stock market .if my projections are correct I could have 12/14k of cash in my house by the years end which is pretty stupid

Physical silver bullion or a bullionvault account. Durhamborn sees it being approx $300 an ounce by the end of the decade

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Watch what they do, not what they say...

I just can't see these employment cliff edges coming to fruition, these are different times, lessons from the GFC have been learned with the perfect excuse still with us. The conservatives don't want a sticky 10% unemployment rate if it can be avoided.

Economics run on the 'never never' is a piece of piss innit?! Don't need qualifications for it.

1. Print 

2. Give out 

3. Print 

4. Give out 

Etc.

Easier than any job I've ever done.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Hopefully they will load up a few more,most woke institutions sold into the lows and most weak hands will be shaken out for the cycle.It will take several knockdowns to also kick out the iv made 15% im out people each run up.The focus on "green" is relentless and sentiment is on the floor.Its almost universal that people think $60 is a long term ceiling as they think supply can come back.They are in for a shock later in the cycle when its treble that.

The 'inflation ETF' that was launched recently and talked about on here went on a bit of a rise this week.  I bought a small position a few weeks back; partially as its a lazy way to show me sentiment (as it's an easily findable ETF for retail investors).

 

[Errol]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

Physical silver bullion or a bullionvault account. Durhamborn sees it being approx $300 an ounce by the end of the decade

Or something like PHAG, which I believe DB also has.

[Democorruptcy]

26 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I need a way to invest in the stock market but not be in the stock market .if my projections are correct I could have 12/14k of cash in my house by the years end which is pretty stupid

Do you want to post the cash recorded or deliver it to me?

Then I send some back via paypal, then you use paypal to fund a shares account, to avoid using a bank account. Just had a very quick look to see who accepts paypal and etoro do but I don't know anything about them and cannot see an ISA.

[DurhamBorn]

41 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I need a way to invest in the stock market but not be in the stock market .if my projections are correct I could have 12/14k of cash in my house by the years end which is pretty stupid

How old are you stokie?,if your not too far from 55 you can put in a SIPP and it doesnt count for benefits,plus youl get tax relief added and then draw back out once over 55 etc.

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Harley said:

Another one from a thread upstairs.  What are you people doing?!

"The Bank of England has taken another step towards adding negative interest rates to its crisis-fighting toolbox.

It's given High Street banks six months to be operationally ready for them."

translation - if people dont start spending we'll take it by negative interest rates. you have been warned. you have six months to get out of cash.

I'm not really big on the conspiracy that covid was just a another printing/stimulus excuse (like the 2008 banking crisis) but am becoming more suspicious by the minute...

 

The whole problem with negative rates is that

a) they don't work

b) they can actually make the broader economic situation worse.

If we use Japan as an example,driving rates lower has pushed velocity lower.This is soemthing we've seen in teh West since 2008.

And even discusss what neg rates will do to Deutshce Bank in terms of margins.

I was reading Wolf t'ohter day,and the implosion in real estate both commerical and resi is gathering ace in the US of A.Nick Corbishley had a piece on about Hong Kong having loads of empty CRE etc etc.Can't see how the banks will make it through neg rates.

10 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, thanks for posting Anglo Pacific, i'm a sucker for these royalty companies in general and this one does look good (i own some gold/silver ones, and am looking into us/canada oil/gas ones).

Anglo's divi history is also good (7% currently!). I am always on look out for 'bond substitutes' - i know they are not the same - but do think institutions will go looking for income producing bond replacements and i think royalty companies may well become their favorite.

IKN has a good point ongoing about royalty PM miners suffering as goldies can access captial markets so not needing the streamers any more.Hence,as coal is getting backroomed,so the streamers should be a good place to hide.

Defo got me thinking about ditching Osisko and Sandstrom for Barrick.

 

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The whole problem with negative rates is that

a) they don't work

b) they can actually make the broader economic situation worse.

If we use Japan as an example,driving rates lower has pushed velocity lower.This is soemthing we've seen in teh West since 2008.

And even discusss what neg rates will do to Deutshce Bank in terms of margins.

I was reading Wolf t'ohter day,and the implosion in real estate both commerical and resi is gathering ace in the US of A.Nick Corbishley had a piece on about Hong Kong having loads of empty CRE etc etc.Can't see how the banks will make it through neg rates.

IKN has a good point ongoing about royalty PM miners suffering as goldies can access captial markets so not needing the streamers any more.Hence,as coal is getting backroomed,so the streamers should be a good place to hide.

Defo got me thinking about ditching Osisko and Sandstrom for Barrick.

 

A lot of money will go into property and that's all they care about.

If negative rates come in, what about the NS&I guarantee?

Quote

 

You're in safe hands

Most banks only guarantee your savings up to £85k. We’re the only provider that secures 100% of your savings, however much you invest.

https://www.nsandi.com/

 

 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Physical silver bullion or a bullionvault account. Durhamborn sees it being approx $300 an ounce by the end of the decade

I’m allowed to have 6k in saveings I’ve aready got 3k in the house I count it has loose change lol .shares again count towards the 6k .I have not looked at the legal status of bullion antique stuff and art and say coin collecting I’d assume is very safe .

[DurhamBorn]

I think the BOE mentioning negative rates is simply to provide cover for more QE.Its a bit like government floating out tax horror stories before the budget only for them to not be true,so people then dont notice the more subtle shafting they get instead.

[sancho panza]

#debtdeflationcometh

Here we go.....CRE going to hammer banks

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/02/04/deutsche-bank-got-jingle-mail-from-1-us-mall-reit-simon-property-group-foreclosed-on-mall-got-no-bids/

Deutsche Bank this week foreclosed on a $177.5 million mall mortgage. The mortgage had been securitized and spread over two commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in 2012

At the time of securitization in 2012, the collateral for the loan was valued at $322 million, according to Trepp, a data firm that tracks CMBS. And everything was hunky-dory. In October 2020, the value was slashed by 60% to $130.4 million.

The  legal notice by Deutsche Bank of the foreclosure sale, reported by the Marietta Daily Journal on January 27, specified that the mall would be sold on February 2 “at public outcry to the highest bidder for cash before the Courthouse door of Cobb County.” The opening bid would be $130.4 million.

And there were no bids. So Deutsche Bank and other CMBS holders are now the proud owners of the mall.

 

 

HSBC ....

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/01/28/hong-kong-in-biggest-office-glut-since-2005-amid-worst-recession-on-record/

Biggest Office Glut since 2005 Hits Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate amid Worst Recession on Record

In other words, a lot more office space is hitting the market than is leaving it. Total vacant office space rose to 8.12 msf in the fourth quarter, up 69% year over year.

The city has so far racked up five consecutive quarters of economic decline, from the third quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2020 (the figures for the fourth quarter haven’t yet been published). Hong Kong is now in the grip of its worst recession on record. The economy shrank by 9.1% in the first quarter, 9% in the second and 3.5% in the third. Unemployment has risen to 6.6%, the highest rate since the last quarter of 2004, when it peaked at 8.4%.

Against this backdrop, office rents in Hong Kong plunged at their fastest rate since the Global Financial Crisis. In the fourth quarter, average rentals experienced the steepest quarterly decline since Q2 2009, falling by 6.3%, according to Cushman & Wakefield. These crumbling prices come on top of the fall in prices that already occurred in 2019. That brought the full year decline to 19.3%.

 

[King Penda]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

How old are you stokie?,if your not too far from 55 you can put in a SIPP and it doesnt count for benefits,plus youl get tax relief added and then draw back out once over 55 etc.

I’m 55 I’ve got a small pension I can cash when I want it’s only 33k obviesly  I won’t has it will fuck my universal credits up .however I know you can legally pay debt off with it . I need to look at selling my house and borrowing cash off my mum to buy another then cash my pension in and pay her off ie is it legal .ok it’s gameing the system I know but I need to look into if it’s legal 

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Hunty said:

BP (NYSE:BP)

Short Interest Data
Current Short Volume: 10,440,000 shares
Previous Short Volume: 6,380,000 shares
Change Vs. Previous Month: +63.64%
Dollar Volume Sold Short: $238.66 million.

During the worst stages of 2020, short volumes were around 25% on BP ADR.

It is currently running double that for the past 4 days. 

They're keep winning till they stop winning.

Nice of them to offer us all some nice cheap stock.

Intersting stuff Hunty.Possibly explains the following.XOM have their steam up.10% pullbakc and back up.BP 20% down same timfraem.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I’m 55 I’ve got a small pension I can cash when I want it’s only 33k obviesly  I won’t has it will fuck my universal credits up .however I know you can legally pay debt off with it . I need to look at selling my house and borrowing cash off my mum to buy another then cash my pension in and pay her off ie is it legal .ok it’s gameing the system I know but I need to look into if it’s legal 

I saw your post and was trying to think of a clever way to solve your problem. DB has got it first time. Pensions are outside all the means testing. You will get a 25% tax rebate too. Basic tax is 20% but when they put the tax money back it is 25% on top of what you deposit. Eg put in £80 and you will get £20 tax back added. Open a SIPP and they will automatically claim the money from the Government.

As you're not far from pension age it is a no brainer as you will be able to claim it from 57 or 58. Make sure to start it before April tax year.

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I saw your post and was trying to think of a clever way to solve your problem. DB has got it first time. Pensions are outside all the means testing. You will get a 25% tax rebate too. Basic tax is 20% but when they put the tax money back it is 25% on top of what you deposit. Eg put in £80 and you will get £20 tax back added. Open a SIPP and they will automatically claim the money from the Government.

As you're not far from pension age it is a no brainer as you will be able to claim it from 57 or 58. Make sure to start it before April tax year.

So your saying I could bung in say 1000 a month on benifits and not get fucked over or cause myself problems .sounds way to easy.if I stay under 6k I’m fine if I go over I have to explain where it’s gone .ps I’m very close to going over wide screen TVs in every room lol would be totally legal

ironicly 

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I saw your post and was trying to think of a clever way to solve your problem. DB has got it first time. Pensions are outside all the means testing. You will get a 25% tax rebate too. Basic tax is 20% but when they put the tax money back it is 25% on top of what you deposit. Eg put in £80 and you will get £20 tax back added. Open a SIPP and they will automatically claim the money from the Government.

As you're not far from pension age it is a no brainer as you will be able to claim it from 57 or 58. Make sure to start it before April tax year.

My mind just whirls around all the time such things and the numbers,he can claim it from now if he wants,but like you say the beauty is you can turn the tap on or not whenever it suits.Most people say the best time to invest in pensions is when you are really young,and thats true in many ways,but not in government risk.That makes investing in them when within 5 years of access much better.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, stokiescum said:

So your saying I could bung in say 1000 a month on benifits and not get fucked over or cause myself problems .sounds way to easy.if I stay under 6k I’m fine if I go over I have to explain where it’s gone .ps I’m very close to going over wide screen TVs in every room lol would be totally legal

ironicly 

If you worked from April 6th last year you can bang in 100% of your earnings before April 5th,

When not working,

If you have no earnings or earn less than £3,600 a year, you can still pay into a pension scheme and qualify to have tax relief added to your contributions up to a certain amount.

The maximum you can pay is £2,880 a year. Tax relief is added to your contribution so if you pay £2,880, a total of £3,600 a year will be paid into your pension scheme, even if you earn less than this or have no income at all.

[King Penda]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

If you worked from April 6th last year you can bang in 100% of your earnings before April 5th,

When not working,

If you have no earnings or earn less than £3,600 a year, you can still pay into a pension scheme and qualify to have tax relief added to your contributions up to a certain amount.

The maximum you can pay is £2,880 a year. Tax relief is added to your contribution so if you pay £2,880, a total of £3,600 a year will be paid into your pension scheme, even if you earn less than this or have no income at all.

That goverment saveing scheme for poor people has a fantastic interest rate ironically .ps im

probably due a tax rebate in April 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

17 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

So your saying I could bung in say 1000 a month on benifits and not get fucked over or cause myself problems .sounds way to easy.if I stay under 6k I’m fine if I go over I have to explain where it’s gone .ps I’m very close to going over wide screen TVs in every room lol would be totally legal

ironicly 

You've seen what DB has said about the not working limit. Also the money you earned this tax year.

I think you're fostering though. Don't know if that counts as employment rather than just benefits.

[ThoughtCriminal]

45 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I’m allowed to have 6k in saveings I’ve aready got 3k in the house I count it has loose change lol .shares again count towards the 6k .I have not looked at the legal status of bullion antique stuff and art and say coin collecting I’d assume is very safe .

Is it the security aspect you're concerned about? 

 

I've got over 50k in the house from cash in hand jobs, but I'm 6"3 and 18 stone and I've got a 40kg German shepherd who's a total fucking psycho, so burglars aren't high on my radar. 

[King Penda]

22 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

You've seen what DB has said about the not working limit. Also the money you earned this tax year.

I think you're fostering though. Don't know if that counts as employment rather than just benefits.

Yes that’s where it gets complicated yes I am

but the council want me to do all the courses etc but claim

its friends a family fostering I need to

look into that aspect 

[King Penda]

24 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Is it the security aspect you're concerned about? 

 

I've got over 50k in the house from cash in hand jobs, but I'm 6"3 and 18 stone and I've got a 40kg German shepherd who's a total fucking psycho, so burglars aren't high on my radar. 

Your lucky I’m a totally effeminate guy with a cat but I do like a beer 

[macca]

https://www.401krollover.com/world-years-away-from-running-out-of-silver/

Are we running out of silver to cover the paper traded sales?

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, stokiescum said:

I need a way to invest in the stock market but not be in the stock market .if my projections are correct I could have 12/14k of cash in my house by the years end which is pretty stupid

Pension?